Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest

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Tuesday, September 19th

The EUR/USD pair continues to keep its bid tone so far this week, trying to break through its psychological resistance of 1.2000. Recent upside rally of the pair is mainly driven by broad weakness of the US dollar, backed by uncertainty around upcoming potential tax reform by the Trump administration. However, any further gains of the pair may appear limited, as we are heading towards the main event of this week – FOMC interest rate decision, which will take place tomorrow during the NA session. Markets are widely expecting that the Fed will provide some hints on further steps regarding its monetary policy. On the data front, investors are now eagerly awaiting for German ZEW economic sentiment for fresh directional impetus, while the US data from the labor market will also be able to spark some volatility across the market during the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair extends its recovery from yesterday’s drawdown, following less hawkish M.Carney’s speech. On Monday, the pair came under strong selling pressure, dropping below the level of 1.3600, after BoE Governor M.Carney stressed that further interest rate increase is expected to be gradual and limited. However, the pair managed to regain its bid tone, as the US dollar continues to lose ground across the market. However, it is expected that we may see some correction of the pair amid some repositioning trade ahead of the much awaited FOMC rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday. Today the UK calendar won’t bring anything important, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend during the European session, while the US will publish bloc of data from the labor market, featuring Building Permits and a few more secondary tier reports, which will set up pair’s next direction in the session ahead.

The USD/JPY pair continues to build gains for the third session in a row on the back of improving investors’ appetite for riskier assets, having refreshed its nearly 2-month highs in the vicinity of the 112.00 level. Easing geopolitical tensions around Korean Peninsula on the back of lack of aggression from Pyongyang negatively affects demand for safe-haven assets, forcing the Yen to lose ground against the greenback. On the other hand, broad retreat of the US currency remains one of the key determinants across the market that is limiting pair’s gains. However, expected that the pair won’t show any sharp moves in the near future on the back of increasing cautiousness among investors, as we are heading towards key events of this week – Fed and BoJ interest rate decisions, which will take place later this week. Both events will be highly influential for the pair, as they will hint on further steps of the regulators regarding its monetary policies. Looking ahead, today investors will focus their attention on the US Building Permits report due later today, while the US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair throughout this session.

The AUD/USD pair extends recovery from its 2-week lows, marked during previous trading session, despite RBA dovish minutes from its last monetary policy meeting. The protocols once again reiterated that the Central Bank remains concerned regarding stronger position of the Aussie and low inflation, which have negatively affected the Australian currency. However, the pair managed to regain its bid tone, as ongoing weakness of the US dollar, despite increased expectations of Fed rate hike by the end of this year, and positive data from the Australian labor market are supporting to the pair this Tuesday. Today the US economy will release the bloc of reports from the US labor market, which will be able to bring some fresh trading opportunities, while the US dollar price dynamics will continue to determine pair’s trajectory during this trading session.

The main events of the day:
German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 12.00 (GMT +3)
US Building Permits – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1890 R. 1.2000
USDJPY S. 110.73 R. 112.07
GBPUSD S. 1.3372 R. 1.3680
USDCHF S. 0.9552 R. 0.9672
AUDUSD S. 0.7882 R. 0.8074
NZDUSD S. 0.7189 R. 0.7381
USDCAD S. 1.2100 R. 1.2432

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Wednesday, September 20th

The EUR/USD pair extends its winning streak, trading for the fifth consecutive session with gains. In Asia the pair received strong bullish impetus, having leaped above its psychological resistance of 1.2000, as the US dollar continues to lose points against its main rivals. However, the pair corrected slightly lower on the back of increased nervousness across the market, provoked by upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve, which is the key risky event of this week. It is expected that the Fed will leave its interest rate untouched, however, the revision of economic forecast and any comments of the Central Bank members on further monetary policy tightening measures will remain key themes of Fed’s meeting. On the data front, the EU data calendar will remain silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend, while the US will publish data from the housing market, which will be able to bring some short-term impetus to the pair ahead of the key risky event of this Wednesday.

The dollar/yen pair stalled its 3-day northward march on Wednesday and now is consolidating its position in the vicinity of 111.50 level amid increased flight to safety. Today strong risk-off sentiments dominate the market, as investors held their breaths ahead of the Fed and BoJ interest rates decisions, refraining of opening any important bets. It is expected that both regulators will keep its cash rates unchanged, while any comments regarding its monetary policy projections will be highly influential for the pair. Moreover, ongoing retreat of the US dollar against its main competitors also limits pair’s further upside. Besides much awaited crucial events, today investors will also pay attention to the US Existing Home Sales data, which will be able to set up pair’s short-term direction for the pair during the NA session.

Today the GBP/USD pair follows broad market trend and consolidates its positions within the 1.3510-30 corridor on the back of increased cautiousness among market participants. Currently the pair is trading without any clear direction, as risk-off moods, underpinned by the upcoming key event, are negatively influencing higher-yielding pound. On the other hand, ongoing weakness surrounding the greenback continues supporting the pair so far this week, thereby limiting pair’s chances on further drawdown. Ahead of the Fed outcome, the UK will publish retail sales numbers, which will keep investors busy during the European session, while the US will release data from the housing market, which will be able to bring additional trading opportunities to market participants during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair remains well bid for the second day in a row, extending its upside rally beyond its psychological resistance of 0.8000 on the back of ongoing retreat of the US dollar. Earlier today, the pair came under minor selling pressure, following dovish speech of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor Luci Ellis, talking about higher household debt. However, the major managed to regain its bullish trend, as broad sell-off of the greenback remains one of the key determinants across the market. On the other hand, further upside of the pair looks fragile, as strong risk aversions grip the market ahead of the key event of this week. Today all eyes will remain glued to the FOMC meeting, which will be held in NY afternoon and will be able to spark some volatility across the market. Besides US regulator’s interest rate decisions, investors also will look forward for the data from the US housing market for fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.

The main events of the day:
UK Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US Existing Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
Fed Interest Rate Decision – 21.00 (GMT +3)
FOMC Press Conference – 21.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1926 R. 1.2041
USDJPY S. 110.87 R. 112.25
GBPUSD S. 1.3425 R. 1.3595
USDCHF S. 0.9568 R. 0.9680
AUDUSD S. 0.7932 R. 0.8102
NZDUSD S. 0.7228 R. 0.7372
USDCAD S. 1.2227 R. 1.2343

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Friday, September 22nd

The EUR/USD pair continues to extend recovery from its sharp drop, backed by the outcome of recent FOMC meeting, and now is eyeing to retake the level of 1.2000. Strong risk aversion sentiments, triggered by escalation of the US-N.Korea conflict, support the main currency pair at the end of this week. According to the latest news, Pyongyang warned the US that it might conduct another Hydrogen bomb test in the Pacific Ocean in response to the new sanctions that US President D.Trump is going to apply to N.Korea. Adding to this, broad correction of the US dollar after hawkish outcome of the Fed meeting and positive morning German Manufacturing data are also supporting the pair on Friday. Today only the speech by ECB President M.Draghi is scheduled in the economic event calendar, so the US dollar dynamics will continue to determine pair’s trajectory throughout this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair came out of its tight 20-pips range, seen during the Asian session, and now is attempting to extend its yesterday’s recovery from FOMC-led deeps. Downside correction of the US dollar against its main rivals remains the key driving factor across the market at the end of this week, allowing the GBP/USD pair to recover the most part of its Wednesday’s losses. However further upside of the pair remains fragile, as markets today prefer to keep wait-and-see mode ahead of the crucial speech by UK PM T.May. Today Mrs. May will talk about the Brexit bill and considerations regarding trade deals that could be very influential for the pound, as the EU and UK are still struggling to reach a compromise over the Brexit divorce bill. Moreover, renewed flight to safety, triggered by re-emerged geopolitical tensions around N.Korea, also exerts some negative pressure on the higher-yielding pound. Besides crucial speech by the UK PM, nothing noteworthy is scheduled in the data calendar, so broad market trend will continue to lead the pair throughout this session.

The yen remains one of the top gainers of this Asia on the back of renewed risk aversion sentiments, allowing the USD/JPY pair to fall back below the level of 112.00. The sharp escalation of tensions around Korean peninsula triggered an acceleration of flight to safety, thereby boosting demand for the yen. Recently, it became known that US President D.Trump announced the imposition of new sanctions against North Korea. In response, Pyongyang promised to take countermeasures and conduct another nuke test in Pacific. However, further drop of the pair may appear limited, as investors are still digesting outcomes of recent Fed and BoJ meetings, which sparked speculations regarding divergence between monetary policies of the regulators. Looking ahead, today we have relatively empty data calendar, so broad risk trend and the US dollar dynamics will continue to determine pair’s further directions on Friday.

Bitcoin lost recovery momentum against its competitor from the US, having failed to sustain its positions above the level of 4000 earlier this week. Yesterday the BTC/USD pair refreshed its weekly lows at 3587.01 level, as pair’s recovery from last week’s lows, marked below the level of 3000, has run out of steam. Seems that bitcoin continues to stay under the pressure of recent news that China banned local digital currency exchanges and trading platforms. According to the latest data, South Korea and Japan have already outstripped China in terms of cryptocurrencies’ trading volumes, which is also negatively affecting the cryptomarket. Currently the BTC/USD pair is trading at 3660.00 mark, while total capitalization of bitcoin is about 61 billion US dollar, according to the data available on coinmarketcap.com.

The main events of the day:
ECB President M.Draghi’s Speech – 11.00 (GMT +3)
Canada Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canada Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
UK Prime Minister T.May’s Speech – 22.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1831 R. 1.2007
USDJPY S. 111.86 R. 113.02
GBPUSD S. 1.3430 R. 1.3662
USDCHF S. 0.9649 R. 0.9775
AUDUSD S. 0.7842 R. 0.8080
NZDUSD S. 0.7256 R. 0.7388
USDCAD S. 1.2290 R. 1.2386

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Monday, September 25th

The EUR/USD pair failed its attempt to fill in its today’s bearish gap and returned back in the area of 1.1900 level. Recent weakness of the common currency is mainly attributed to the disappointing victory of A.Merkel’s Conservative Party, which failed to gain the majority of seats in the Bundestag. So now, Mrs. Merkel’s CDU/CSU bloc will have to form a coalition that is viewed by the markets as a probable source of political uncertainty, thereby weighing the euro. Moreover, the greenback continues to keep its positive tone across the market on the back of easing US-N.Korea conflict that is also adding some pressure on the major currency pair at the start of this working week. Today the main event for the pair will remain ECB President M.Draghi’s testimony before the ECON Committee in Brussels, which will be able to shed some light on further ECB monetary policy developments, while the US calendar will remain broadly silent today, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market sentiments.

The NZD/USD pair remains under pressure at the start of this week amid uncertainty, backed by New Zealand’s election. Today the Kiwi came under bearish control, breaking the resistance of 0.7300, as markets are digesting the outcome of New Zealand’s election, which showed that the ruling National Party won the majority of votes, however, it was not enough to form a government. Therefore, the NZ PM B.English will have to form a coalition, which in turn is weighing on the NZ dollar. Moreover, positive sentiments around the greenback on the back of increased expectations of another Fed rate hike this year also are weighing the pair. Today we have relatively empty data calendar, so broad market sentiments will continue to play the main role in determining pair’s trajectory throughout this session, while next important event for the pair remains RBNZ meeting, which will denote further divergence between monetary policies of the regulators.

The dollar/yen pair caught fresh bids during the Asian session and reached the level of 112.50, but could not hold its positions and fell back to the region of 112. Ongoing positive tone of the US dollar and increased risk appetite amid lack of any news about Korean peninsula remain supportive for the pair on Monday. Moreover, the pair received additional bullish impetus today after dovish talks of Japan’s PM S.Abe, who suggested to expand existing QE program. However, the pair managed to correct lower after BoJ Governor H.Kuroda during his speech noted, that the Japanese economy continues to demonstrate moderate recovery pace. Looking ahead, today nothing noteworthy is scheduled in macroeconomic data calendar, so further pair’s actions will mostly depend on broad market trend and the US dollar price dynamics.

The GBP/USD pair trades with a positive bias at the start of this week, keeping positions near its today’s tops, marked in the vicinity of 1.3550 level. The latest upmove of the major is mainly driven by the recovery of the pound after its Friday’s drawdown, backed by uninformative speech of UK PM T.May, which failed to provide any details regarding the Brexit process. However, further upside looks unlikely, as the greenback continues to trade in a positive mood against its major peers, exerting some pressure on the pair on Monday. Today nothing much is scheduled economic data calendar, so widespread market moods will remain as a key driving factor for the pair throughout this trading session.

The main events of the day:
ECB President M.Draghi’s Speech – 16.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1890 R. 1.2032
USDJPY S. 111.16 R. 112.96
GBPUSD S. 1.3363 R. 1.3657
USDCHF S. 0.9648 R. 0.9730
AUDUSD S. 0.7873 R. 0.8029
NZDUSD S. 0.7254 R. 0.7380
USDCAD S. 1.2213 R. 1.2413

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[EEAnalytics]

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Wednesday, September 27th

The EUR/USD pair extends its bearish trip for the third consecutive session, having already lost about 2 cents since this week highs, marked in the region of 1.1940. Broad demand for the US dollar remains the key driving factor across the market on Wednesday, as investors are still digesting yesterday’s more hawkish speech by Fed Chair J.Yellen, during which the head of the regulator reaffirmed market’s expectations regarding implementation of the more aggressive monetary policy. Mrs. Yellen stressed that there are some risks associated with a too gradual increase of the interest rate. Adding to this, the greenback reacted positively to recent news that US President D.Trump to present much-awaited tax reform plans later this session. On the data front, today the EU docket won’t bring anything noteworthy, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market trend and the US dollar price dynamics, while investors will focus their attention on a slew of the US macro releases for fresh near-term trading opportunities.

The NZD/USD pair bounced off its 3-week lows, marked at 0.7168 spot during previous trading session, and now is consolidating its positions in the vicinity of the 0.7200 level, as investors remain in anticipation of the key event of this Wednesday. Today all investors’ eyes will remain glued to the RBNZ meeting, which will be held in the late NA session. It is expected that the regulator will leave its interest rate untouched, while following comments of Bank’s members will have some impact on the pair, especially due to recent Bank’s concerns regarding higher positions of the Kiwi. However, the pair will continue to remain under bearish pressure throughout this trading session, as investors are still digesting balanced Fed Chair J.Yellen’s speech, which slightly improved demand for the US dollar. Besides crucial RBNZ meeting, today investors will also pay attention to the bloc of the US releases, which will also be able to bring some trading opportunities later in the session.

The AUD/USD pair remains the biggest loser of this Asian trading session amid highly unfavorable environment for the Aussie across the market. Currently the pair is extending its downside march, having refreshed its 8-week lows at 0.7856 earlier this session, as risk-off moods, sparked by escalation of US-N.Korea conflict, are negatively influencing higher-yielding assets. Weaker sentiments on the commodity market, especially among metals, are another factor that is pressuring on the commodity-linked Aussie. Adding to this, positive tone of the greenback across the market at the equator of this trading week, backed by reinforced expectations for the one more Fed rate hike this year following yesterday Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments, is also limiting pair’s chances for the immediate recovery. Looking ahead, today the US economic calendar will bring us another pack of fundamental releases, which will be able to set up pair’s next trajectory in the NA session, but until then broad market trend will remain as an exclusive driver for the major.

The GBP/USD pair continues to lose ground on Wednesday, having fallen below its support level of 1.34, amid improved demand for the US dollar across the market. Currently the pair is experiencing intense selling pressure, as markets are digesting yesterday’s mildly hawkish speech by Fed Chair J.Yellen, which bolstered Dec Fed rate hike bets. Moreover, risk-off moods amid persisting political tensions around Korean Peninsula and lack of clarity around the Brexit process are also forcing the pound to lose points against its US counterpart. Looking ahead, the UK data calendar will continue to keep silence today, as it was customary this week, while the US will release durable goods and pending home sales data, which will be able to bring some directional impetus for the pair during the NA session.

The main events of the day:
US Core Durable Goods Orders – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Pending Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
BoC Governor S.Poloz Speech – 18.45 (GMT +3)
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision – 23.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1698 R. 1.1908
USDJPY S. 111.08 R. 113.04
GBPUSD S. 1.3355 R. 1.3565
USDCHF S. 0.9614 R. 0.9762
AUDUSD S. 0.7809 R. 0.7987
NZDUSD S. 0.7106 R. 0.7326
USDCAD S. 1.2279 R. 1.2445

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[EEAnalytics]

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Monday, October 2nd

The EUR/USD pair failed to extend its Friday’s recovery path and fell to its 2-day lows, located in the area of 1.1740 level, on the back of recent political headlines from Spain. The main currency pair came under strong selling pressure at the start of this trading week in wake of referendum vote for Catalonia’s independence from Spain, which was held on Sunday. As a result, 90% of Catalans voted “Yes” to leave Spain, but only 42.3% of voters took part in the referendum and the Spanish constitutional court declared referendum results illegal. This political uncertainty around the Euro area triggered fresh sell-off of the common currency across the market on Monday. Moreover, increased demand for the greenback, underpinned by market’s expectation of another Fed rate hike this year, also exerts negative influence on the main currency pair today. On the data front, today the European data calendar will offer only secondary data reports, which will unlikely provide the pair with notable impact, while the US ISM manufacturing data will be able to bring fresh trading opportunities for the pair during the NA trading session.

The GBP/USD pair looks depressed on Monday, having refreshed its 2-week lows near the level of 1.3340 on the European opening, as numerous factors are pushing the pair into the negative territory. Today the pair is mainly driven by increased demand for the US dollar, as investors hope that the Fed will follow its less gradual rate increase path. Adding to this, lack of direction from Brexit process negotiations and recent red numbers from the UK economy are strongly weighing the pound across the market that is another negative factor for the pair. Now all investors’ attention turns towards the UK manufacturing PMI, which will be able to bring some directional impetus to the pair during the European session, while the manufacturing data from the US side also won’t remain without traders attention later ahead in the session.

The USD/JPY pair was trading on a firm note so far this session, getting closer to the 113.00 level, as returned demand for the US dollar remains the key navigator across the market on Monday. Recently renewed strength of the greenback is mainly attributed to growing market conviction that the Fed will implement its plan of more aggressive monetary policy tightening. At the same time, interest around the US dollar appeared so strong that the yen was not able to benefit from positive numbers of Japanese Tankan manufacturing index. Looking ahead, today we have only US ISM Manufacturing PMI scheduled in the data calendar for the pair, so the US dollar price dynamics will remain as an exclusive driver for the pair throughout this trading session.

Seems that Bitcoin keeps positive mood at the start of this week, extending recovery against its US counterpart above the level of 4400. Recall, the BTC/USD pair fell to its multi month lows in mid-September, marked near the level of 3000, following China’s ban on ICOs. However, the pair managed to recover its sharp loses, as investors have passed over recent news and regained its positive view regarding further potential of the digital cash. On the other hand, on Friday it became known that South Korea intends to follow Chinese steps, banning all ICOs in the country, adding that stern penalties await those, who will continue to support this method. These headlines have a negative basis for the all cryptomarket and may slow down pair’s further correction. However, there were some positive news too, Japan’s Financial Services Agency issued operating licenses to 11 bitcoin exchanges, allowing the pair to maintain its positive tone. By the moment of writing, the pair was trading at 4436.90 spot, while its market capitalization was 73 billion USD, according to the data available on coinmarketcap.com.

The main events of the day:
German Manufacturing PMI – 10.55 (GMT +3)
UK Manufacturing PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1746 R. 1.1866
USDJPY S. 111.95 R. 112.99
GBPUSD S. 1.3301 R. 1.3489
USDCHF S. 0.9638 R. 0.9740
AUDUSD S. 0.7794 R. 0.7874
NZDUSD S. 0.7151 R. 0.7265
USDCAD S. 1.2356 R. 1.2586

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[EEAnalytics]

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Tuesday, October 3rd

The EUR/USD pair followed widespread market sentiments in Asia and spiked its support level of 1.1700, having refreshed its 2-month lows at 1.1696 spot. The main market-moving factor remains increased demand of the US dollar, as risen expectations of another Fed rate hike by the end of this year and solid economic results of the US economy are supporting the greenback across the market. Adding to this, the common currency continues to remain influenced by Sunday’s Catalonia independence referendum, which led to a surge of violence on the streets of Spain, thereby exerting notable pressure on the euro. However, the pair managed to bounce off its recent lows and to recover part of its overnight loses amid profit taking actions around the US Dollar. Today we have absolutely empty data calendar, so the pair will continue to trace US dollar price actions and broad market trend to determine its further direction.

The AUD/USD pair continues to lose ground for the third day in a row, having refreshed its 2-month lows below the level of 0.7800. Today the pair received another bearish impetus after the RBA revealed the outcome of its meeting. As it was widely expected, the Bank didn’t offer any surprise to markets and left its rate and monetary policy stance unchanged. In its statement, the regulator noted that keeping monetary policy stance without any changes shows Bank’s intentions to achieve sustainable growth in the economy and the inflation target over time. Adding to this, the RBA reiterated its concerns over higher exchange rate of the Aussie, which is providing some negative pressure on the Australian economy. Besides jawboning outcome of the RBA meeting, ongoing demand for the US dollar, additionally boosted by upbeat US manufacturing data, continues to drag the pair into the negative territory. Today in absence of any economic releases, the pair will continue to trace the US dollar price dynamics to determine its further trajectory.

The GBP/USD pair remains heavy weighed on Tuesday, having refreshed its 3-week lows at 1.3329 level earlier this session. Increased demand for the US dollar, underpinned by investors’ hopes that the Fed will implement its plan of more aggressive monetary policy tightening, is still dominating the market, thereby negatively influencing the pair. Adding to this, ongoing uncertainty over Brexit process negotiations is also forcing the pound to lose points against its American counterpart, as no significant progress has been reached on main Brexit topics during the Brexit talks. However, seems that the pair managed to stall its retreat and performed attempt to recover part of its overnight losses in European morning, as investors are locking in some profits after significant downside rally of the pair. Now immediate focus shifts towards the UK Construction PMI, which is scheduled on the European trading session. However, since it is the only market-moving event for today, the US dollar price dynamics will remain as a key determinant for the pair throughout this Tuesday.

The dollar/yen pair continues to gain points so far this week, stepping into the zone of its 2-month highs, touched at 113.25 spot last week. Ongoing speculations on another Fed rate hike and positive US macroeconomic data continue to hold the US dollar firmer on Tuesday, limiting any pair’s chances to downside correction. However, seems that the pair met some resistance in the region of its recent tops, as slight pick up in interest to safety on the back of Las Vegas shootings, allowed the pair to stall its upside rally. Today nothing noteworthy is scheduled in the data calendar for the pair, so broad market trend and sentiments around the US dollar will continue to remain as exclusive drivers for the pair throughout this trading session.

The main events of the day:
UK Construction PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1672 R. 1.1844
USDJPY S. 112.10 R. 113.38
GBPUSD S. 1.3163 R. 1.3457
USDCHF S. 0.9642 R. 0.9808
AUDUSD S. 0.7771 R. 0.7875
NZDUSD S. 0.7137 R. 0.7255
USDCAD S. 1.2439 R. 1.2559

Your European ECN-broker,
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[EEAnalytics]

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Wednesday, October 4th

The EUR/USD pair retains its recovery trend for the second day in a row on the back of renewed weakness of the US dollar, backed by recent Fed leadership talks. In Asia the pair came under bullish control, having refreshed its 2-day highs at 1.1800 spot, in wake of speculations on who will take Fed Chair positions, once Yellen’s term expires next year. The market is digesting idea that the next Fed Chairperson could become FOMC member J.Powell, as he looks more ideologically aligned with Trump administration, while remaining more dovish candidate then Mrs. Yellen. However, the pair stalled its upside trend, as political jitters surrounding the Catalan referendum vote are still weighing on the common currency. Today we have plenty of macroeconomic events, such as the ADP Jobs report, US ISM services PMI and speeches of both heads of the regulators, which will be able to provoke fresh wave of speculations regarding divergence between the Fed and ECB during the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair extends its yesterday’s consolidation trend, as the market is awaiting for the UK services PMI, especially after streak of disappointing UK economic results. However, seems that the pair managed to regain its mildly positive tone and bounced off its monthly lows, marked yesterday at 1.3222 level, as US bulls look exhausted this Wednesday on the back of rumors that Fed Chair position may take more dovish candidate then Mrs. Janet Yellen. On the other side, ongoing uncertainty around Brexit negotiations continues to exert negative pressure on the pound. Besides crucial data from the UK economy, investors are also looking forward for such reports as US ADP jobs data and US ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Meanwhile, the main event of this Wednesday remains Fed Chair J.Yellen’s speech, as it will be able to bring some fresh clues regarding one more Fed rate hike at the end of this year.

The NZD/USD pair staged a solid comeback in Asia, leaping higher for about 50 pips on the back of renewed weakness of the greenback. Today the pair bounced off its monthly lows, marked at 0.7149 spot, and now is trading in the region of 0.7180 with its daily tops, touched above the level of 0.7200. Recall, recent weakness of the pair was mainly attributed to higher positions of the US dollar against its main competitors, as markets believe that the Fed will increase its interest rate one more time this year. Adding to this, recent NZ election results are also still exerting negative pressure on the Kiwi. However, seems that the market has put aside rumors of more aggressive Fed monetary policy tightening in response to looming uncertainty over who will be the next Fed Chairperson. On the other side, ongoing weakness around oil prices is limiting pair’s further recovery trend. Looking ahead, today investors’ attention will remain focused on the US ADP jobs report and US ISM services PMI data, while crude oil stockpiles will also be able to bring some impetus during the NA session. Beside the US macroeconomic reports, traders will also pay attention to several Fedspeaks for fresh insights on further Fed monetary policy tightening path.

Today the dollar/yen pair extends its yesterday’s retreat from its 7-week highs, as returned weakness of the US dollar dominates the market at the equator of this week. Yesterday the pair met strong resistance in the region of 113.20 and lost its further upside momentum afterwards, having refreshed its 3-day lows in the vicinity of 112.40. Recent weakness of the pair is mainly attributed to the downside correction of the US dollar, sparked by rumors that Mrs.Yellen could pass Fed Chair position to more dovish candidate. Adding to this, slightly increased cautiousness ahead of the key event of this week, scheduled on Friday, is providing support to safe-haven assets, such as the yen. Looking ahead, today we will have pretty busy NA session, with US ADP jobs report, which is considered as a preview to the key Friday’s jobs report, US ISM non-manufacturing PMI and Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech, which will be able to set up pair’s next short-term direction during the NA session.

The main events of the day:
UK Services PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 15.15 (GMT +3)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
ECB President M.Draghi’s Speech – 20.15 (GMT +3)
Fed Chair J.Yellen’s Speech – 22.15 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1660 R. 1.1816
USDJPY S. 112.28 R. 113.46
GBPUSD S. 1.3184 R. 1.3314
USDCHF S. 0.9692 R. 0.9806
AUDUSD S. 0.7766 R. 0.7872
NZDUSD S. 0.7117 R. 0.7219
USDCAD S. 1.2443 R. 1.2559

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Friday, October 6th

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish control so far this session, wobbling in the region of its nearly 2-month lows, marked earlier this morning in the vicinity of 1.1700, as upbeat sentiments around the dollar are weighing the pair. Recent pickup in demand of the US dollar could be explained by the latest Fed talks on another rate hike at the end of this year and a slew of positive economic releases, seen earlier this week. On the other hand, yesterday’s ECB Sept meeting minutes showed regulator’s intent to keep its monetary policy highly accommodative. This stance of the regulator sparked another wave of speculations regarding the divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and ECB, which added some extra bearish pressure on the pair. On the data front, today the EU docket won’t bring anything noteworthy, leaving the pair at the mercy of widespread market moods, while the US data calendar contains much awaited NFP data, which will set up sentiments around the greenback in short-term projection.

The GBP/USD pair remains highly depressed so far this week, sinking below the level of 1.3100, as numerous factors continue to weigh on the pair. Today demand for the US dollar dominates the market, as yesterday’s hawkish comments, delivered by FOMC members, bolstered the odds of a Dec Fed rate hike. Moreover, ongoing uncertainty on the UK political field also exerts some pressure on the pair on the back of recent news headlines, saying that Conservative Party members insist on UK PM Theresa May to step down from her position, as they doubt over her approach towards the Brexit deal. In addition, increased cautiousness across the market ahead the key event of this week keeps risk-associated assets under pressure this Friday. Today the UK data calendar will remain broadly silent, while the US will release the NFP data, which will be able to bring fresh impetus to the pair during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair extends its yesterday’s downside rally, sparked by awful Australia’s retail sales data, remaining within striking distance of its 2-month lows, touched earlier this session at 0.7743 level. Adding to this, the pair accelerated its decline recently, following comments of RBA board member Ian Harper, who said that progress in the economic recovery remains too slow and interest rate cut might be appropriate in this case. These comments triggered sell-off of the Aussie across the market, which eventually strongly weighed the pair. Moreover, returned demand for the US dollar, backed by several hawkish Fedspeaks, pointing on another Fed rate hike this year, remains one of the main driving factors across the market, which collaborates with pair’s decline at the end of this week. Today all eyes will remain glued to the key event of this week – US NFP report, which will able to set up next pair’s short-term trend during the NA session.

The USD/JPY pair extends its recovery from the region of its weekly lows, having spiked its resistance level of 113.00 this morning. Recent upside rally of the pair is mainly attributed to the renewed demand for the US dollar, underpinned by hawkish talks of Fed members and tax reforms progress. Yesterday the greenback received additional bullish impetus after The House of Representatives passed the budget to Senate, thereby moving one step closer to tax cut plans’ implementation. However, further pair’s upside rally may appear limited as investors brace for the key event of this week. Today the US economy will publish highly anticipated monthly jobs data, which will be able to bring another clue on less gradual Fed monetary policy tightening path during the NY trades.

The main events of the day:
US Nonfarm Payrolls – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Unemployment Rate – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canada Employment Change – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canada Ivey PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1648 R. 1.1810
USDJPY S. 112.20 R. 113.22
GBPUSD S. 1.3016 R. 1.3300
USDCHF S. 0.9718 R. 0.9828
AUDUSD S. 0.7736 R. 0.7894
NZDUSD S. 0.7076 R. 0.7186
USDCAD S. 1.2414 R. 1.2660

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[EEAnalytics]

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Tuesday, October 10th

The EUR/USD pair continues to show positive dynamics for the third consecutive session on the back of weaker positions of the US dollar, despite uncertain political climate in Spain. However, further upside looks unlikely, as now all market’s attention remains focused on Catalonia President Carles Puigdemont’s speech, who, as expected, can declare the independence of the region unilaterally. This outcome of the current situation may trigger spike of volatility across the market and, as a result, massive moves of the pair. However, ongoing weakness of the US dollar, backed by awful results from the US labor market, continues to navigate the market, offering some support to the main currency pair lately. Today both economic calendars lack any major market moving releases, so developments on Spain’s political field will remain as an exclusive driving factor for the pair on Tuesday.

The GBP/USD pair extends its bid tone for the second day in a row on the back of ongoing retreat of the US dollar. Sell-off of the greenback remains the key driving theme across the market so far this week, as Friday’s weaker-than-expected NFP numbers keep pressuring on the US currency. Adding to this, positive comments of the UK PM T.May on post-Brexit relationships with the EU during her speech before the Parliament also helped the pair to maintain its positive mood. Mrs. May showed intention to keep strong economic partnership with EU after leaving the Eurozone. Now all focus shifts towards the UK Manufacturing Production report, which is the only important data release for today, so the US dollar price dynamics will remain as a key driving factor for the pair during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair broke its 3-day losing streak and staged minor recovery, having refreshed its intraday highs in the region of 0.7790. The pair gained positive traction this morning after the NAB Business Confidence index came above market expectations, which provided some support to the Aussie. Moreover, bulls failed to regain control over the greenback yesterday after several unsuccessful attempts, as disappointing data from the US labor market continues to exert pressure on the US dollar. However, odds that the Fed will once again raise its interest rate this year remain fairly high that may allow the US dollar to regain its positive tone across the market, thereby limiting the pair’s further gains. On the data front, today the US economic data calendar will continue to keep silence, offering only secondary data reports, so widespread market mood will continue to navigate the pair throughout this session.

The USD/JPY pair navigates without clear direction this morning, oscillating within a 25 pips narrow trading range around the 112.50 level, as bulls and bears are fighting for control over the pair. Seems that yen bulls payed little of attention to the positive data from the Japanese economy, as dovish comments from BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda have limited yen’s gains. The head of the regulator once again reiterated that the BoJ would continue to maintain QE program until the economy reaches the inflation target of 2%. Adding to this, decreasing demand for safety on the back of lack of any news headlines form the Korean peninsula also did little to set up pair’s further trajectory. On the other hand, ongoing retreat of the US dollar, backed by weak results from the US labor market, continues to keep the pair under pressure so far this week. Today in absence of any relevant data reports, the pair will continue to trace broad market trend to determine its further direction.

The main events of the day:
UK Manufacturing Production – 11.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1701 R. 1.1775
USDJPY S. 112.16 R. 113.00
GBPUSD S. 1.3025 R. 1.3243
USDCHF S. 0.9754 R. 0.9828
AUDUSD S. 0.7725 R. 0.7795
NZDUSD S. 0.7026 R. 0.7104
USDCAD S. 1.2511 R. 1.2577

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Wednesday, October 11th

The EUR/USD pair remains better bid on Wednesday, mostly ignoring uncertainty surrounding Spain. Yesterday Catalonia’s President Carles Puigdemont and other regional politicians signed a document declaring Catalonia’s independence from Spain. Moreover, Mr. Puigdemont also delivered a speech, begging Spanish government for a dialog. However, the Spanish government keeps its position clear and does not recognize actions of the Catalan leader. On the other hand, ongoing weakness of the US dollar, additionally boosted by yesterday’s dovish comments of Dallas Fed Chief R.Kaplan, pointing on a postponement of Fed rate hike this year, also collaborates with pair’s upside in the middle of this week. Today all traders’ attention will remain focused on the FOMC Sept meeting minutes, which will be able to bring fresh insight on further Fed monetary policy path, while data from the US labor market and developments from the Spanish political field will also be able to provide the pair directional impetus in the day ahead.

The GBP/USD pair struggles to determine its direction and remains in the vicinity of 1.3200 mark, following broad market sentiments on Wednesday. An absence of any direction could be explained by increased cautiousness across the market, as investors remain in anticipation of another market-moving event – the FOMC meeting minutes, which could be able to set up pair’s further trajectory. However, the pound manages to keep a smile lately, as upbeat fundamentals and UK PM T.May’s intentions to maintain strong economic post-Brexit partnership with EU keep sentiments around the UK currency underpinned. Adding to this, ongoing decline of the US dollar, accelerated by yesterday’s dovish comments of FOMC member R.Kaplan, who stated that the Fed could afford to be patient on rate hikes, is also limiting pair’s further losses. On the data front, today the UK calendar won’t offer anything important, while the US will publish the FOMC minutes from the latest meeting, which will hog the limelight during the NA afternoon.

The NZD/USD pair trades without clear direction at the equator of this trading week, as sentiments around both currencies remain subdued. Yesterday the US dollar received another bearish impetus after FOMC member R.Kaplan suggested being a little bit more patient and gradual on rate hikes. On the other hand, lingering worries surrounding New Zealand political environment, triggered after general election failed to identify a clear winner, are still limiting NZD gains. Moreover, classic cautiousness across the market ahead of the FOMC minutes will also keep the pair capped within its daily range, as investors will seek for additional clues on another Fed rate hike this year. Besides the Fed protocols, the US economic calendar also contains the JOLTS Job Openings report, which will also be able to bring some short-term trading opportunities during the NA session.

The dollar/yen pair follows broad market trend on Wednesday and remains directionless, awaiting for fresh movement catalysts. Yesterday the pair managed to recover after moderate drop on the back of decreasing demand for safety, as lack of news from Korean Peninsula and easing concerns surrounding political climate in Spain are forcing investors to take a closer look on more risky assets. On the other hand, continuing sell-off of the US dollar, additionally boosted by yesterday’s dovish talks of Fed member R.Kaplan, who noted that the Fed might need to see more evidence of progress in inflation for further monetary policy tightening, is limiting further gains of the pair. Today all eyes will remain glued to the FOMC minutes, which will be able to influence the US dollar price dynamics in short-term projection, while the JOLTs Job Openings report will also attract traders’ attention during the NA session.

The main events of the day:
US JOLTs Job Openings – 17.00 (GMT +3)
FOMC Meeting Minutes – 21.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1701 R. 1.1879
USDJPY S. 111.57 R. 113.25
GBPUSD S. 1.3091 R. 1.3281
USDCHF S. 0.9698 R. 0.9826
AUDUSD S. 0.7722 R. 0.7824
NZDUSD S. 0.7038 R. 0.7102
USDCAD S. 1.2445 R. 1.2589

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Thursday, October 12th

The EUR/USD pair extends its northward trend for the fifth consecutive session, having refreshed its 2-week highs in the vicinity of 1.1880 level, on the back of ongoing decline of the greenback. Recent weakness of the dollar is mostly attributed to the dovish outcome of the latest FOMC meeting, which revealed that some members were worried that recent drawdown of the inflation may not be temporary. These dovish comments eased market’s confidence that the Fed will continue to implement more aggressive tightening path of the monetary policy. Moreover, the common currency continues to benefit from easing concerns over the separation of Catalonia. Yesterday Spanish PM M.Rajoy announced that he gives 5 days to Catalonia’s leader C.Puigdemont to clarify the situation with the independence of Catalonia and 3 more days to “correct” it. Today all traders attention will remain focused on the US PPI data and several speeches from both sides, which will set up pair’s further trajectory during this trading session, while tomorrow’s US CPI report will keep investors from making important decisions, especially in light of the outcome of the latest FOMC meeting.

The GBP/USD pair is advancing for the fourth consecutive session, having refreshed its 6-day highs at 1.3265 spot. Ongoing weakness of the US dollar remains the key driving theme across the market, as yesterday’s FOMC minutes appeared less hawkish than it was expected. The FOMC protocols showed that the Fed members were worried that low inflation transitory period could be prolonged. This outcome of the meeting triggered wave of speculations of narrowing divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and BoE, which are especially interesting in wake of recent BoE talks of probable rate hike in the near future. Adding to this, positive sentiments surrounding the UK political space continue to support the pound so far this week, as investors hope that EU and UK will keep its positive relationship after Brexit. Today all investors’ attention will be focused on the US PPI report, while several speeches from both sides will also be able to bring some fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair remains bullish for the third session in a row, having refreshed its weekly highs in the region of 0.7825, benefiting from the USD weakness. Yesterday the US dollar accelerated its decline against its main competitors in wake of less hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. Despite reaffirming expectation of Fed rate hike, the minutes also showed Fed members’ concerns regarding slow inflation growth pace that in turn heavily weighed on the US dollar across the market. Moreover, positive secondary data from the Australia’s housing market, seen this morning, also underpinned bullish sentiments around the pair. Looking ahead, today investors will look forward for the US PPI data, while the USD price dynamics will remain the key driver for the pair during this trading session.

The USD/JPY pair came under fresh selling pressure, having reversed its yesterday’s gains, as sell-off of the US dollar is still gripping the market. Yesterday the US dollar received another bearish impetus, extending its streak of losses against its main competitors, as the outcome of the latest FOMC meeting appeared not so positive, as it was expected. Fed members once again reaffirmed market expectations of another rate increase this year, while showing concerns regarding low inflation level that in turn negatively affected sentiments around the US dollar. However, the ongoing silence from the Korean Peninsula is positively affecting risk appetite, which limits pair’s further losses. Today the US data calendar will offer the US PPI report, which will be released during the NA session, while several Fedspeaks will also provide investors with short-term trading opportunities in the day ahead.

The main events of the day:
US PPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
ECB President M.Draghi’s Speech – 17.30 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 18.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1766 R. 1.1916
USDJPY S. 111.87 R. 112.89
GBPUSD S. 1.3151 R. 1.3271
USDCHF S. 0.9687 R. 0.9787
AUDUSD S. 0.7750 R. 0.7828
NZDUSD S. 0.7040 R. 0.7120
USDCAD S. 1.2403 R. 1.2559

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Friday, October 13th

The EUR/USD pair lost its upside momentum this morning, having met resistance in the vicinity of 1.1850 level, on the back of attempts of the US dollar to correct higher against its main competitor after drawdown, backed by less hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. On the other hand, the pair was trading on a positive note during Asia, as the euro received a fresh boost, following recent headlines, saying that the ECB is considering the tapering of the QE program, starting from January 2018. However, further sharp moves of the pair look unlikely, as we are heading closer to the key event of this Friday – the release of the US CPI report, which could reinforce market’s expectations of more aggressive Fed monetary policy tightening path. Besides the US inflation, investors will also pay attention to US retail sales numbers, which will also be able to bring some additional impetus to the pair.

The GBP/USD pair continues to show positive dynamics so far this week, having refreshed its nearly 2-week highs at 1.3324 spot this morning, as continuing optimism around Brexit supports the pound. Seems that UK bulls are not going to give up, extending its winning streak for the fifth consecutive session, on the back of recent news headlines, citing EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, who offered the UK to stay in the EU’s single market during the 2-year transition period. Moreover, subdued price dynamics of the US dollar and recent talks about narrowing divergence between Fed and BoE also collaborate with pair’s upside trend at the end of this week. Now all traders’ attention shifts towards crucial US CPI and retail sales figures, which could help the pair to determine its further direction.

The AUD/USD pair continues to show positive dynamics for the fourth day in a row, despite cautious RBA Financial Stability Review report and mixed Chinese trade data. The RBA once again reiterated its position, saying that higher interest rate level could weigh on the economy, and especially on the Australian housing market. Moreover, seems that the pair also remained resilient to mixed Chinese trade balance numbers, which failed to exert enough pressure on Australian bulls. Pair’s upside trend could be mainly explained only by a softer tone of the greenback, as markets continue to digest recent FOMC meeting minutes. However, further growth of the pair may appear capped, as we are heading to the key event of this week – US CPI report, which will be especially interesting in light of recent cautious comments of Fed members regarding low inflation growth rates in the US.

The BTC/USD pair continues to surprise the market with its performances. Recall, in September the BTC/USD pair dipped below the level of 3000, following restrictions on digital currency in China, which is the world’s largest crypto market. However, Bitcoin managed to recover a smile and refreshed its ultimate highs at 5867.60 earlier this session. There is no clear catalyst behind this aggressive upsurge, while markets believe that slew of secondary positive factors, such as Amazon bringing bitcoin on their platform, rumors that bitcoin trading would likely be resumed with more regulation in China or increasing trading volumes in S.Korea and Japan, are providing enough support to Bitcoin, so the pair could resume its upside trend. Currently the BTC/USD pair is trading at 5562.70 spot, while its market capitalization rose above 90 billion USD, referring to the data from coinmarketcap.com.

The main events of the day:
US Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1792 R. 1.1898
USDJPY S. 111.92 R. 112.70
GBPUSD S. 1.3056 R. 1.3394
USDCHF S. 0.9690 R. 0.9794
AUDUSD S. 0.7762 R. 0.7864
NZDUSD S. 0.7047 R. 0.7187
USDCAD S. 1.2407 R. 1.2523

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Monday, October 16th

The EUR/USD pair extends its downside trend for the third consecutive day, having breached the level of 1.1800 this morning, on the back of headlines about ECB QE program and expectations of the outcome on the Catalan independence declaration. The political uncertainty surrounding Catalonia’s independence vote remains one of the key driving factors for the pair, as worries about further escalation of political uncertainty in Spain weigh on the common currency. Moreover, recent news headlines, stating that the ECB intends to implement only minor adjustments in the QE program, which won’t be able to affect the overall picture, exert extra pressure on the euro. Adding to this, Friday’s dovish comments of ECB president M.Draghi, who once again reiterated the need of more accommodative monetary policy, forced the pair to close eyes to Friday’s disappointing US inflation and retail sales figures. Today both economic calendars won’t offer anything relevant, so the pair will continue to navigate, following broad market trend, while any developments from Spanish political field will be able to trigger volatility in the day ahead.

The GBP/USD pair remains on a firm note at the first working day of this week, breaking through the level 1.3300, in wake of unsuccessful attempts of the US dollar to correct its positions after Friday’s sharp downside move, triggered by a slew of disappointing US economic indicators. Moreover, the pound got additional positive impetus on the back of headlines, saying that UK PM T.May and Brexit Secretary David Davis will make an emergency trip to Brussels on Monday to meet EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker ahead of the EU summit to try to budge the negotiations over the Brexit deal. Adding to this, narrowing divergence between the Fed and BoE and improved risk appetite among investors, fueled by positive Chinese data, also keep sentiments upbeat around the pound. Today we have relatively silent data calendar, so broad market trend will remain the key driving factor for the pair during this trading session.

The AUD/USD pair navigates in a narrow range at the start of this trading week, consolidating its positions in the region of 0.7870–90, after Friday’s drawdown, backed by disappointing US CPI figures. However, the pair remains under pressure this morning, as the US dollar attempts to correct after strong sell-off, triggered by worse-than-expected US numbers. On the other hand, China released bloc of upbeat data, featuring PPI and CPI, which usually leads to risk-on rally across the market, thus lending support to the higher yielding-currencies, such as the Aussie. Today the US calendar won’t bring anything noteworthy, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market trend and risky sentiments, while RBA will publish minutes from its last meeting, which will be able to bring some fresh trading opportunities, especially in light of recent dovish talks regarding subdued recovery of the Australian economy.

The dollar/yen pair failed to extend its early upside trend and surrendered major part of its Asian gains, having returned to the region of 3-week lows, marked at 111.69 spot on Friday. Earlier this Monday the pair received minor bullish impetus in wake of the US dollar attempts to correct higher against its main competitors after its drawdown, backed by weak inflation data. Moreover, broadly based risk-on trend, underpinned by positive Chinese data, also negatively affected the safe-haven yen. However, further upside lacked any momentum, as investors are still digesting recent Friday’s disappointment, which weighed on market expectation of Fed’s more aggressive monetary policy tightening path. Today the US calendar will remain broadly silent, so the US dollar dynamics and widespread market trend will remain as exclusive driving factors for the pair throughout this trading session.

The main events of the day:
None

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1761 R. 1.1903
USDJPY S. 111.32 R. 112.56
GBPUSD S. 1.3196 R. 1.3380
USDCHF S. 0.9672 R. 0.9806
AUDUSD S. 0.7782 R. 0.7950
NZDUSD S. 0.7085 R. 0.7239
USDCAD S. 1.2411 R. 1.2547

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Tuesday, October 17th

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish control for the fourth consecutive session, as uncertainty on the political field of Spain drags the euro lower against its main competitors. Yesterday Catalonia leader Carles Puigdemont failed to provide more clarity on the current situation, so the Spanish government gave him more time to decide on whether he wants to declare the independency of Catalonia or not. Moreover, continuing optimism around the US dollar remains one of the key driving factors across the market so far this week, which also negatively affects the pair. On the data front, now investors are looking forward to the release of the German ZE surveys and Eurozone final CPI report, which will be able to set up pair’s next trajectory, while the US calendar will offer only secondary data reports during the NA session, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend.

The GBP/USD pair shows subdued trading dynamics on Tuesday, wobbling near the level of 1.3250, as investors remain in anticipation of crucial data from the UK economy. However, the pair continues to stay under pressure so far this week, as renewed jitters around Brexit are weighing the UK currency. Seems that the UK and EU are still struggling to make any progress in the Brexit negotiations, thus easing market expectation of positive Brexit deal. Adding to this, upbeat sentiments around the US dollar and easing demand for higher-yielding currencies are also exerting negative pressure on the pair lately. It is expected that today we will have pretty volatile session, as the UK economic calendar will bring crucial inflation data and BoE Governor M.Carney will deliver a speech, where his comments regarding further monetary policy tightening measures will be highly influential for the pound.

The AUD/USD pair managed to bounce off its intraday lows, marked at 0.7835 level, however, remaining under pressure on the back of several bearish factors. Earlier this session the pair received moderate bearish impetus after RBA published protocols from its last meeting. The Bank once again reiterated its position that any monetary policy tightening measures would depend only on domestic economic conditions, and not on broad interest rate increase. Also the RBA members also showed worries about still high Aussie, which negatively affects inflation and global economic growth pace. Moreover, ongoing recovery of the US dollar and reduced risk appetite also contributed to pair’s decline. Looking ahead, the US economic calendar will continue to keep silence today, so the broad market trend and the US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair throughout this session.

The dollar/yen pair alternates gains with losses on Tuesday, having been stuck between bulls and bears. Earlier today, the yen received bearish impetus after North Korea’s deputy UN envoy Kim In-ryong stated, that his country would not give up nuclear weapons, since this is a justified measure of self-defense. Also he noted that no country in the world has been exposed to such an extreme and direct nuclear threat from the US for so long, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula has reached “the touch-and-go point and a nuclear war may breakout at any moment”. As a result, a massive wave of risk-off sentiments approached the market, boosting the demand for safe-haven assets, such as the yen. On the other hand, the US dollar continues to recover its positions across the market after disappointing Friday’s inflation figures that is capping pair’s retreat. Today the US calendar won’t bring anything noteworthy, so markets will pay close attention to any headlines from North Korea for further momentum.

The main events of the day:
UK CPI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 12.00 (GMT +3)
EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
BoE Governor M.Carney’s Speech – 13.15 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1759 R. 1.1839
USDJPY S. 111.41 R. 112.67
GBPUSD S. 1.3174 R. 1.3348
USDCHF S. 0.9711 R. 0.9791
AUDUSD S. 0.7815 R. 0.7907
NZDUSD S. 0.7137 R. 0.7213
USDCAD S. 1.2416 R. 1.2608

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Wednesday, October 18th

The EUR/USD pair extends its bearish trend for the fifth consecutive session, remaining within striking distance of its weekly lows, marked yesterday at 1.1736 spot. Ongoing decline of the pair could be mainly explained by increasing demand for the US dollar. Yesterday the greenback caught fresh bids after hawkish comments of Fed member P.Harker, who predicted another three rate hikes next year, which were considered by the market as hint on more aggressive Fed monetary policy tightening. Moreover, yesterday US President D.Trump added some extra optimism around the US dollar, saying that he wants to implement tax reform by Christmas. On the other side, any further recovery of the euro looks unlikely, as the Catalan crisis is still unresolved. Today, the head of the ECB M.Draghi is expected to speak, while the US will release data from the housing market, which will provide additional trading opportunities to investors during the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair failed to extend its recovery path in Asia, after less enthusiastic talks of BoE members, keeping its positions below the level of 1.3200. Yesterday the pair came under strong bearish pressure, following not hawkish enough speech of BoE Governor M.Carney. Although Mr.Carney confirmed the possibility of a rate hike in the coming months, markets remained disappointed by lack of any details regarding further Bank’s monetary policy actions. Meanwhile, yesterday’s crucial data from the UK economy also did little to support the pair, as inflation figures reached market’s estimations that failed to impress bulls. Adding to this, ongoing concerns over Brexit negotiations also remain negative driving factor for the pound lately, as the UK and EU are still struggling to make any progress in Brexit deal discussions. Looking ahead, today we have plenty of economic events, scheduled in data calendar, such as important data from the UK labor market, the US housing market and the Crude Oil Inventories report, which, in turn, may influence market’s risk sentiments.

The USD/JPY pair stays bullish at the equator of this week, as demand for the US dollar remains one of the key themes across the market. Recent upside of the greenback is mainly attributed to hawkish talks of Fed member P.Harker, who sees the implementation of more aggressive monetary policy tightening path. Adding to this, fading demand for safety also negatively influences yen’s positions today, thus contributing to pair’s further growth. On the data front, today the US calendar will release the building permits numbers, which will be able to set up pair’s next trajectory, while increasing cautiousness ahead of Sunday’s Japanese election will likely limit pair’s any further sharp moves.

The NZD/USD pair failed to keep its yesterday’s bullish trend, triggered by positive NZ inflation data, and came under heavy selling pressure in the Asian trading session. Broad demand for the US dollar, underpinned by yesterday’s hawkish comments of Fed member P.Harker, remains one of the key factors weighing on the major. Moreover, uncertainty on the political field of the NZ, where the NZ National Party still hasn’t formed the government, also provides negative influence on the pair. However, positive dynamics of oil prices provides support to commodity-linked assets that may stall somewhat pair’s further decline. Today the US docket will bring the building permits report and the crude oil stockpiles, which are key events of this Wednesday, while several Fedspeaks will also be able to affect pair’s further direction during the NA session.

The main events of the day:
ECB President M.Draghi’s Speech– 11.10 (GMT +3)
UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus – 11.30 (GMT +3)
UK Claimant Count Change – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US Building Permits – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories –17.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1704 R. 1.1830
USDJPY S. 111.79 R. 112.67
GBPUSD S. 1.3078 R. 1.3344
USDCHF S. 0.9711 R. 0.9845
AUDUSD S. 0.7799 R. 0.7883
NZDUSD S. 0.7119 R. 0.7227
USDCAD S. 1.2463 R. 1.2619

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[EEAnalytics]

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Thursday, October 19th

The EUR/USD pair stays positive on Thursday, having refreshed this week tops at 1.1822 level, as slight weakness of the US dollar is one of the key driving factors on the market. Seems that yesterday’s retreat of the greenback, additionally boosted by lackluster US housing data, supports the pair in the second half of this week, forcing it to keep its positions above the level of 1.1800. However, the pair stalled its downside direction in early Europe, as investors are digesting recent headlines, saying that the Catalan leader C.Puigdemont threatened Spain PM M.Rajoy that he would declare formal independence in case of no dialogue from Madrid. In response to this announcement, the Spanish PM intends to call a cabinet meeting on Saturday to discuss current situation. Expected, that today the pair will remain influenced by Catalan political updates, while the US will release Philly Fed manufacturing index, which will bring additional trading opportunities during the NA session.

The NZD/USD pair came under strong selling pressure during the Asian trading session, having lost 130 pips, on news that NZ First party will form the governments with Labour party. Earlier today, it became known that after a month of inconclusive negotiations New Zealand First finally made a decision to form the government with Labour party, which means that current NZ PM Bill English, whose party won a small advantage in the September elections, will have to resign. However, there is still no official announcement, but investors have already started to correct their positions in accordance to the latest news headlines, forcing the pair to retreat to its 5-month lows, marked at 0.7038 spot. On the other side, slight US dollar downside correction across the market might provide the pair with much needed respite, stalling its sharp rally. Looking ahead, today we have Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, scheduled in the US data calendar, however, further developments from the NZ political field will continue to navigate the pair during this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair failed to sustain its yesterday’s gains and retreated back below the level of 1.3200 by the European opening. The main reason of pound’s recent weakness is that investors remain cautious ahead of the EU Summit, with the agenda mainly centered on the Brexit negotiations. Investors mainly await for UK PM Theresa May’s speech for fresh insight on Brexit deal after long negotiations, which lacked any progress. Meanwhile, slight downside correction of the US dollar across the board and nervousness ahead of the important data release are limiting pair’s current retreat. Besides the EU Summit, investors will also pay attention to the UK retail sales numbers and Philly Fed manufacturing data, which will help to form next short-term trajectory of the pair on Thursday.

The AUD/USD pair failed to gain direct momentum following slew of positive data from Australia and China, released earlier this session. The pair received moderate bullish impetus during Asia, rallying 30 pips, on the back of a promising Aussie jobs report. However, the spike was short-lived and the pair retreated back to its comfort zone, located in the vicinity of 0.7850, as investors’ sentiments about the Aussie are still unclear after dovish RBA meeting minutes, seen on Tuesday. Nevertheless, the pair managed to recover its positive tone after China released upbeat data from the industrial sector. In general, the pair is showing bullish dynamics at the European morning, also taking into account slight retreat of the US dollar against its main competitors. Today all traders attention will remain focused on Philly Fed manufacturing data, while the US dollar price dynamics and broad market trend will continue to remain as key driving factors for the pair on Thursday.

The main events of the day:
UK Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1697 R. 1.1849
USDJPY S. 111.78 R. 113.62
GBPUSD S. 1.3114 R. 1.3252
USDCHF S. 0.9746 R. 0.9870
AUDUSD S. 0.7803 R. 0.7879
NZDUSD S. 0.7089 R. 0.7209
USDCAD S. 1.2409 R. 1.2561

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[EEAnalytics]

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Friday, October 20th

The EUR/USD pair met strong selling pressure on Friday after two consecutive session with gains, falling below the level of 1.1800. The downside rally of the pair could be mainly explained by renewed demand for the US dollar, as the US Senate has passed 2018 budget blueprint, which brings US President D.Trump’s tax reforms one-step closer to its implementation. Adding to this, ongoing uncertainty on the political field of Spain also collaborates with pair’s retreat, as the Spanish government could suspend Catalonia’s autonomy on Saturday in response to recent threats of C.Puigdemont to declare the independency of Catalonia, which remains one of the negative scenario of events. Today we will have pretty quiet data session, as EU data calendar lacks any important data releases, while the US will publish only existing home sales data, so broad market trend and the US dollar price dynamics will remain as key navigators for the pair during this trading session.

The NZD/USD pair remains highly pressured at the end of this trading week, having broken through its important psychological resistance of 0.7000 to its 5-month lows, located at 0.6971 level, on the back of recent developments from the NZ political field. The key driver of pair’s recent fall were headlines from New Zealand, stating that NZ First will form the next government with Labourites, supplanting the National Party from the political arena. These news spooked NZ bulls, as the policy of the new government may negatively influence the economy. Adding to this, Labour expressed their intention to reform the Central Bank that also exerted negative pressure on the pair. Moreover, sharp comeback of the US dollar across the market on the back of recent tax reform developments was another driving factor, which contributed to pair’s recent fall. Looking ahead, today we will have another pack of data from the US housing market, however, further developments from the NZ political field will be the main driving factor for NZD/USD on Friday.

The GBP/USD pair continues to stay under bearish control as several factors are exerting pressure on it. Yesterday the pair attempted to correct its positions, but the recovery was short-lived and the pair slumped to its nearly 2-week lows, marked at 1.3088 level. One of the reasons of pair’s weakness remains recovery of the US dollar, triggered by news that the US Senate approved 2018 budget blueprint, which were considered by markets as important step towards much awaited tax reforms. Moreover, the pound is showing negative dynamics lately, as EU Summit leaders expressed concerns regarding lack of progress in Brexit negotiations. On the data front, today we have only existing home sales report, scheduled in economic calendar, so any news about Brexit will hog the limelight on Friday.

The USD/JPY pair staged a solid comeback during Asia, breaking through the level of 113.00, as positive tone of the greenback remains key theme across the market at the last trading day of this week. During the Asian session, the US Senate approved a budget plan for the 2018 fiscal year, paving the way for the implementation of the long-waited tax reforms, promised by President Trump. This news triggered strong buying wave around the US dollar, thus allowing the pair to recover its positions. Moreover, slight cautiousness among market participants ahead of Sunday’s Japanese elections also adds some negative pressure on the yen on Friday. Today the only important event will be the release the US existing home sales data, so broad market trend and the US dollar dynamics will continue to navigate the pair during this trading session.

The main events of the day:
Canada Core CP – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canada Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Existing Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1734 R. 1.1916
USDJPY S. 111.81 R. 113.51
GBPUSD S. 1.3061 R. 1.3277
USDCHF S. 0.9692 R. 0.9848
AUDUSD S. 0.7824 R. 0.7910
NZDUSD S. 0.6908 R. 0.7230
USDCAD S. 1.2432 R. 1.2520

Your European ECN-broker,
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[EEAnalytics]

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Monday, October 23rd

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish control on Monday, as continuing political uncertainty surrounding Spain and positive mood of the US dollar are limiting pair’s chances to recover its positions. Recent comments of Spanish authorities, stating that the government agreed to implement Article 155, which allows the central government to take control of Catalonia, are pointing on escalation of the conflict on the political field of Spain. These developments play the role of negative factor for the euro, thus limiting pair’s further recovery. Moreover, ongoing optimism around the greenback, triggered by the approval of the US Senate 2018 budget blueprint, which gives a greenlight to long-awaited US President D.Trump’s tax reforms, is also contributing to pair’s retreat. On the data front, today the economic calendar will remain broadly silent, so any headlines about developments in Spain and the US dollar dynamics will be key navigators for the pair during this trading session.

The USD/JPY pair opened today with a bullish gap in the vicinity of 114.00 level, following Japan’s snap elections and improved risk appetite. As it was widely expected, PM S.Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party gained an absolute majority of votes, so the market has already managed to price-in its victory. In terms of monetary policy, this is potentially negative factor for the yen, as it means further implementation of ultra-easing measures of monetary policy. In this regard, Japan’s policymakers have already claimed that the authorities intend to accelerate the implementation of “abenomics”, calling the economy as the highest priority for the government. These events provoked demand for higher-yielding assets that additionally weighed the Japanese yen across the market. However, the pair was not able to keep its positions above the level of 114.00 and retreated to the area of 113.70 during Asia, as investors took profits off the table after a predictable outcome of recent events. Looking ahead, today we have absolutely empty data calendar, so the pair will continue to trace broad market trend and the US dollar dynamics during this trading session.

The NZD/USD pair once again refreshed its 5-month lows at 0.6913 level this morning, but managed to regain its positive tone and to recover about 60 pips. Recall, the pair came under strong selling pressure last week as the leader of NZ First W.Peters after month of negotiations finally made a decision to form the coalition with Labour, which triggered a sharp sell-off of the Kiwi in wake of unclear prospects of further actions of the new government. However, seems that the pair has recovered ground and now is navigating towards its psychological level of 0.70 on the back of renewed risk appetite and short-term recovery after massive downside rally, seen last week. In absence of any relevant macroeconomic releases from the US side, the pair will remain influenced by broad market trend, while the NZ market will continue to stay closed due to observance of Labour Day.

The GBP/USD pair extends its Friday’s positive trend, trying to consolidate its positions above the level of 1.3200, as several factors are supporting the pound today. Renewed demand for higher-yielding assets was key theme of the Asian session that allowed pound bulls to take control over the pair. Moreover, shadow of soft Brexit, underpinned by optimistic comments of UK PM T.May, who stated that the UK respects the financial commitment made to the EU, is also positively affecting the pair lately. On the other hand, ongoing optimist around the US, triggered by recent tax reform developments, limits pair’s gains at the first working day of the week. Today both economic calendars won’t bring anything interesting, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend and the US dollar dynamics during this day.

The main events of the day:
New Zealand - Labour Day

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1704 R. 1.1894
USDJPY S. 112.11 R. 114.25
GBPUSD S. 1.3044 R. 1.3270
USDCHF S. 0.9711 R. 0.9915
AUDUSD S. 0.7761 R. 0.7909
NZDUSD S. 0.6901 R. 0.7065
USDCAD S. 1.2415 R. 1.2735

Your European ECN-broker,
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[EEAnalytics]

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Tuesday, October 24th

The EUR/USD pair regained its bullish tone and now is navigating back to its intraday highs, marked at 1.1770 spot, following positive German manufacturing data. However, further growth may appear capped, as markets are digesting latest developments from Spain. Recently Catalan government warned about the possibility of civil disobedience in response to recent comments of Spanish PM M.Rajoy, who intends to introduce direct rule to the Catalonia region. Adding to that, slight cautiousness across the market is starting to gather the pace, also limiting pair’s gains, as we are heading closer to the key event of this week – ECB monetary policy meeting, which will take place on Thursday. Market participants expect from ECB President M.Draghi detailed information about possible changes in the QE program. On the data front, nothing else is left in the economic calendar for this Tuesday, so further political developments from Spain and the US dollar price changes will remain as key driving factors for the pair during this trading session.

The NZD/USD pair lost its recovery momentum and once again refreshed its 5-month lows at 0.6926 mark this morning on the back of fresh talks of NZ authorities. In Asia NZD came under aggressive bearish pressure after new NZ PM Jacinda Ardern called for a review and reform of Reserve Bank Act. The market took this statement as dovish, as it leads to uncertainty in further monetary policy. However, the retreat of the Kiwi may appear limited, as mildly bearish sentiments around the greenback and positive tone of oil prices support the pair in the first half of this week. Today the US calendar once again will keep silence, so the US dollar price dynamics and developments from the NZ political area will remain as key determinants for the major during this trading session.

The dollar/yen pair remains positive on Tuesday on the back of attempts of the US dollar to correct higher after yesterday’s drawdown. On Monday the pair opened with strong bullish gap, having refreshed its 3-month tops in the region of 114.00 level, on the back of Sunday’s snap election results, which showed undeniable win of Japanese PM Shinzo Abe. These results the market considered as dovish, as Mr. Abe intends to implement ultra-easing measures to the monetary policy. However, since the win of Japanese PM was inevitable, the positive momentum faded quickly and the pair managed to fill the gap and to retreat to this day lows, marked at 113.25 spot. Today nothing much is scheduled in the data calendar, so the pair will continue to trace broad market trend and the US dollar dynamics to determine its further direction.

The GBP/USD pair eased its Asian gains and broke through the level of 1.3200 mainly in response to attempts of the US dollar to regain its positive tone across the market. However, further retreat of the pair may appear capped as the pound continues to benefit from positive comments of UK PM May regarding Brexit negotiations delivered a day before. Moreover, EU Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier also added some extra optimism around the pound, stating that there is possible way to reach good Brexit deal. Today both economic calendar won’t provide the market with any relevant data releases, so broad market sentiments and US dollar price actions will set up pair’s further trajectory during this trading session.

The main events of the day:
None

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1697 R. 1.1803
USDJPY S. 112.74 R. 114.44
GBPUSD S. 1.3124 R. 1.3262
USDCHF S. 0.9804 R. 0.9904
AUDUSD S. 0.7774 R. 0.7850
NZDUSD S. 0.6903 R. 0.7019
USDCAD S. 1.2593 R. 1.2685

Your European ECN-broker,
Forex.ee