[QUOTE=“eignerdauL;542065”] I´m glad that this trade worked out for you. BUT IMHO you are not selling from a swing high, instead you are selling from a swing low. regards[/QUOTE]
Agreed…when market momentum is strong, sometimes there always isn’t a perfect pullback to where I want to trade from . There were 2 bullish candles that failed to break through previous resistance before the beeb, and I read this as a key signal that we may be continuing downard. When that support was broken, my prediction was confirmed, and the sell order was placed. Additionally, the overall trend was down too, and this signal formed around a significant level. Appreciate you taking the time to check out my trade though… Have a nice day
I agree with you that this is a nice setup waiting for PA signal; I think we need a PB or BUEB on this key level going long.
But, if there will be the PA signal, we need to wait next week for any evaluation of trade/MM because of Friday.
First of all I wouldn’t say it did not work,since the low of your BUEB is not taken out yet.
But unfortunately from what I can see price was not able to push through 1.4630 minor resistance level.
Not all setups work out,that is why we hunt for very huge BEEBs and BUEBs to get a better probability.
It was a major issue 2-3 days ago which I completely and utterly somehow overlooked. I was on tilt, looking for revenge and blood from the market, and completely clouded all of my judgement. I saw what I wanted to see. That PB didn’t even form on my original key level. It was out in the middle of nowhere on my charts, but I “made” it form @ a key level. The major S/R zone for that pair, in my opinion, is @ 80.466; almost 90 points away from the low of that pin.
It is a solid 2BR with a very nice large Bullish candle. However, my zone is @ 80.466.
The biggest problem I see with this trade is that it didn’t happen at a significant support level. I would draw the SR level at 1.4500 based on the daily chart. If you zoom out farther you can see why the SR level is a bit lower, and it also coincides with a BRN. The best setups are when the price action candles protrude down into those key levels. If your candle is not at a key level your trade won’t have much of an edge.
For this to be a trade I personally would have taken it would have needed to be at least 50 pips lower and the engulfing bar itself would have needed to be bigger, as there was a pretty big selloff just 2 days earlier.
Looks like I’m finished now until close of play today, can’t see anything out there for me right now and Benedicts due his daily bowel movement in 15mins. Fingers crossed for the dailys and a busier more successful October!!
I also noticed you didn’t enter at the break. By entering right before the wick ends, you are actually getting in at the worst possible place as that is going to be where you have to most near term resistance. By entering above the wick, price has already broken past the candle high, and that will now act as a minor support to help your trade. Although I did check the charts and price did shoot up 16 pips past the chart, so you may have been triggered regardless.
On the bigger picture that key level is a major S/R level .(80.50-80.20 IMO)
We are definitely on the same page with that. That puts more reason on going long!
We want to trade away from a Key level and not into it. Price has clearly past it and out of danger getting dragged back into it.
Now where would be your next nearest resistance after 80.46?
Baring in mind we want to trade with the momentum.
There is some chop between 4/15 - 5/30, so it may get dicey around there as price was trying to test levels it hasn’t been near in over 5 years. 84.3 area seems like the top to me, with 83.3 a bit more near term.
[QUOTE=“Kasravi;542156”]Hey Krugman, Looks like usd/nok’s push higher has to wait till next week. great and hastle free ride so far. good on us and anyone else who took it. cheers[/QUOTE]
It’s been one of my more enjoyable trades! It’s a couple firsts for me , my first weekly and my first exotic, because of that I went half my standard risk. This has been one of the slowest couple weeks in trading I’ve seen on a long time.
Although last night I did take another trade which was also weekly and exotic, it was ZARJPY, a definite A+ setup. I will post a chart later on it.
A nice looking weekly pinbar off of a significant S/R level. This pair often throws good PA candles that tend to play out well. I also had a modified SL that put me above the previous candles high, the overall S/R level and 20 pips above the VBRN, which should give me multiple buffers in case price were to reverse. For modified SL areas to minimize my risk distance while maintaining good buffers for capital protection I like to put my SL above the previous candle high, my market S/R region and if possible 20-25 pips beyond VBRNs. If price falsly breaks a VBRN, 25 pips tend to filter out most of those false breaks. This SL, entry and TP gives me a 1:2 RR setup. I have only 1 TP area for this trade and do not plan on moving my SL during this trade.
