Forex Price Action

i’m from the Philippines.

yup, i already feel rewarded. still, a long way to go before these rewards will be converted financially. :slight_smile:

i also want to join Jonathan’s full course but i don’t have the money. wooot. will stick to this thread. :slight_smile:

Hi Toyogo,

Sorry, didn’t see this yesterday, but if i did, would have chimed in that the setup was hovering just over a Daily S/R zone (BRN of 1.0500), and thus it was trading into support (around where your T1 is).


@Wafik: Pepperstone also carries AUDCAD and AUDSGD
MT4 >> View >> Market Watch. Right-click and “Show All”

Cheers

Hi Belinda, and welcome!

I have to agree with Rich here. That ‘pinbar’ is actually an inverted pinbar (aka hanging man), and it’s a bearish signal. Going long was trading straight into resistance. Please don’t take it personally, there’s no bile, we’re all building each other here

Cheers


Hi Glen, and welcome!

Good on you for the due diligence, it will pay off you’ll see :slight_smile:

If you’re at page56, you’ve pretty much gotten a good picture of how this works.

I urge you to throw up some charts about trade ideas you’re having ( i assume you’ve opened a demo a/c already ).
It’ll will help you greatly to solidify what your reading

I wish you a profitable future :slight_smile:

Cheers!

hi dudest!

alright, i’ll start throwing some charts here next week. i want to finish this thread fast! haha

i’m now on page 78. will take a break and do some chores at page 80.

thanks for all the help you have done here! i assume with all the live setups you’ve been posting, you’re profiting quite nicely already? haha

good job dudest!

Glen

Hi, this is my first post on this awesome thread.

I think that pin can be very controversial as whether it is bullish or bearish…however, I tend to incline to bearish as it is at the top of a very small uptrend…(could almost be a bullish engulfing :)). In such cases, where things could go either way, and with resistance ahead, it’s better to stay on the sidelines…i think :slight_smile:

(nodding sagely)…true…

Hello!

Pretty decent setups on EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY D1 charts.

CHF/JPY D1


Nice BEEB at proven resistance line and with the overall trend, would be a good trade if the price breaks previous day’s low.

Richard

Hi Richard,

It is identical to EURJPY pair!

Regards,
Toyogo

Mine looks a little bit different (chfjpy) but still bearish engulfing, however not confirmed yet.


Could this have been played long on the 4H?


this is the Daily


Not a very convincing BEEB, personally like bigger bodies, also the close is too far from resistance so makes first target too close. Again IMO!

I understand what subject we are learning here.
But this would be the first time i hear somebody saying “forget the news”. This sounds like “forget the tornado”. Have your SL never been triggered by an unexpected spike? Really never?

As well, i read most of your articles on your website, and you explain there using fundamentals why we should be careful of trading JPY.
So do you have a clue of news, or not? I am confused here.

I am not trying to be bitter here, i just dont see consistancy in this very matter.

I’m considering it as well, but later this year, when personal finance situation will get a bit more stable. I feel 10x better though entering setups and being more picky, trading with trend etc, after reading the whole thread and experimenting on demo, but my trade management needs a lot more to be even considered “up to my personal standard” and that is what I will be looking for at fso.

Hi Cyber, I know it doesn’t answer your your question, but it might be worth looking in here before Jonathon answers:
301 Moved Permanently - news
301 Moved Permanently - and few posts down from this one

[U]I think, first of all we should define what “news” is as we all might have slightly different definitions.[/U]

  • for me “news” is all the market, from 30-min news at 7pm my time, the company I work for announcing retail prices rising or bloody pay cuts, through Bloomberg 24/7 to major news like NFP
  • I’m getting from your post (correct me, I could be wrong), major news for you might be NFP + some other news that affected the market yesterday causing some larger candles to appear
  • for other trader news will have yet another definition

We are not suggesting in here to forget the news 100%, you should be aware when one of the biggest reports like NFP (affecting USD pairs mainly) comes out to be aware that it might trigger your stops etc. From what I have read in here so far, Johno avoids trading [B]into it[/B], but resumes after, correct me if I’m wrong.

I think, personally, what is being suggested in here - everything what PA shows us on our charts is news (smaller or bigger), news is being released on a daily (even minute basis!) basis and guess what you play on “regular” days? [B]News as well[/B] but “smaller” (to some traders, and bigger to others). So there is no point in following news and trying to react to it, [U] just play the news from the charts[/U].

So, before asking “how to behave” around news and how to act on candles that are being created during them, we should ask ourself what kind of announcements are important in our opinion and influence the way we trade.

For the purpose of this thread and PA method the News is NFP only.

This is how I personally understand “trading news”, if it’s not as intended (for the purpose of this particular method), I’d love to be corrected.

Fil.

Okay so here is answer: Please let me know if does not make sense…

Hello,

yes I have had stops taken out because of news plenty of times. But what your failing to understand is it it not the news that is taking the stops out. It is the other traders and big guys that are making the market go one way or another. The only reason the news moves a market is because it can change the opinion of people and if the perceive if a pair is cheap or expensive.

I have a challenge for you. I don’t normally recommend back testing but in the case it is different to make a point to hopefully explain it clearly. Go back and test for example one setup. It may be really obvious pins from resistance levels. If you are only trading obvious pins from key levels you will come out with 80%+ win rate obviously depending on how you manage the trade. You will do this with zero idea of what announcement there are or what news is due out. That is because you have an edge in the market and every time it is there you take the trade.

What it all comes down to is this: What is price action? it is simply price on a chart showing us what other trades have done or in other words there behaviour. It does not matter why they have done what they have done, but what matters is how you learn to read what they have done and apply your edge.

As for your consistency questions. The article you have read is from Mark and not myself. And it was written to highlight the fact to traders that on occasions the Yen can be notoriously volatile to trade. The basic point however is not to stay away from the yen but to ensure you have stops running at all times. No1 ever knows when the Japanese have intervened. It has just happened and the markets have gone ape. There is no way to know when they will do this. It is much the same with other news. You will never know what is going to create the biggest moves. An example was when the fella spoke about the Euro last week and the markets when crazy. No1 expected that at all and if you are in a trade and it goes against you that is just bad luck.

The easiest way to explain it is you need to focus on your edge. As I keep saying you will never know what trades will be the winner and which the losers. This is also the same reason why no method can be 100% accurate. The news and other things move the market everyday by changing traders opinions. If you have a look at a lot of the trend changes you will see notice two things. 1: The trend changed a lot of the time because something changed the traders opinion i,e: an announcement or something happened and 2: You will quite often see a reversal signal such as a Pin bar or engulfing bar etc etc Now I don’t have to know why the market is turning or looking to turn and given a signal because I know that if I simply enter the market every time my edge presents itself over a large sample size of trades I will come out in front.

As I have said in this thread before and did in a previous post the only time I stay away from the market is before NFP on the first Friday of the month and other than that I have zero idea what news is coming out.

I really hope this makes sense now but if not please let me know and I will try and think of another way to explain it for you.

It basically comes down to this. We can see what the news has done or is likely to do by watching the price and how it behaves as price is simply a reflection of human behaviour.

Safe trading,

Johnathon

Edit: Thanks for placing up those other links on what has said previously. I couldn’t find them so thank you!!

So GabbyFX is actually Johnathon… Any other accounts we should know about?

Johanthon,

I have just seen, what i shouldnt have seen. I will silence it. I took a screenshot tho.
Would you like to make a deal? Memebership for my silence :slight_smile:

No it is actually my cousins which turned out pretty lucky when I couldn’t read what was said a few weeks ago. You will actually see that my cousins account was signed up a long time after me and also before I wan banned.

Simple mistake as I was on her Ipad and never though any different.

Johnathon

PS: It is actually not the first time I have done it.

What silence exactly Bob? Please do say??

We all belive you Johnathon :wink: