I am struggling to put my thoughts into words right now so I just want to make it short.
Jonathon told us we can only expect the price to reach the next logical S/R. That should be our TP1.
I wouldnt know how to answer this question: Where did you put your TP1 and why?
Hi all, I need help, Iām getting crazy about FSA and FRA, I see them everywhere and because of them I donāt take any trade - nearly all the time there are some previous candled lows and highs, BRN like 83.00 etc. and these are a few pips away from my entry and this cause I donāt take anything, especially on daily TF.
Today two examples, but as I said I see highs and lows grouping near my possible entry on nearly every chartā¦
Can someone let me know if Iām doing this right.
The USD/CAD has formed a BEEB. Its with the trend BUT it is right into a logical swing area. Would you also pass because the price has been recently boxing around the .973 - .976 area?
Therefore should I be looking for a bullish candle at its current area?
Thanks,
Mud
Ya, agree with you too. 5 mins consist a lot of false signal. So, which timeframe that most of you looking at? I have 2 to 3 hrs of free time per day to trade. So, is 30 mins or 1 hr chart sufficient to filter out the false signal?
The rule of thumb Iāve seen most is that anything under 4 hours is going to have a lot of false information in it. Quite a few of us trade on the 4hr and daily charts. If youāre new, I really donāt recommend you start on the low increment charts. They are more appropriate for people that are familiar with their chosen pairs and how they tend to act.
Johnathonās method is more about making a handful of high probability trades rather than trying to take them often. In the past three weeks Iāve taken three trades. All three Iāve at least doubled my risk on.
HI My first Post on this PA forum.Very nice PA forum.Jonathan and all members this is great discussion
On daily USD/CAD we also have the a pin bar in confluence with the downward trend.
Am in the trade.
My broker is Oanda Mt4. Anyone using it. My daily candle closes as 9 PM PST ( GMT - 8).
i am really finding it hard to plot support/resistance line as exact levels. Do i have to mark separate support/resistance line for each time period. whatever i draw in daily chart is not matching with H4 candlesā¦I might be marking it wrong.
Unsure why not valid for Rich but this was for me and although I did not take it the lesson for this one is: Sometimes the market just does not play nice! Hahah move and and look for the next setup.
This is why so so important to never ever over risk on any one position NO MATTER how good you think it looks!
Hey Johnathon,
Can I please get your comments on my analysis of the following setups?
NZD/USD daily sep 20 bar
Retrace, then nice big engulfing bar with large tail at large resistance area.
With trend
Problems : Resistance area to close?
Price did not retrace far enough?
Any other thoughts?
Would you take trade?
USD/JPY daily sep 19 bar
Large BEEB with large tail
Nice retrace then signal at good resistance
Problems : trading right into previous chop zone.
Any other thoughts?
Would you take trade? (if yes, would you be taking some profit at bottom of chop zone?)
USD/CHF daily sep 21 bar
Could form a nice BEEB
If it does, its at nice resistance area and with trend
Problems: Has it retraced far enough for you?
Do you set the first profit target at the top of a pervious chop zone or the bottom when going short in this potential trade (0.924 area which is way to close to possible entry)?
USD/CAD daily sep 20 bar
In this chart, I notice its a huge tail that stands out but it did close highā¦ Therefore do you wait for any confirmation to take this trade after the next candle or do you just pass it up altogther? it looks so tasty
Sorry for the flood of questions, Iām just trying to get my head on the same wavelength!
Oh, and I cant post pics because im at work sorry!
Mudz
congratulations Belier on having the patience to pass on these trades. given that the strong rise was stopped by the resistance at this level, Iād say it has a good chance of stopping there again.
I believe the approved method would be to see it break through the resistance, then look for PA away from that level to show you the entry. Past the BrN of .8300 the next stop as far as I can see is .84370ish, which should allow you a R:R better than 1:1.
As I post this price on NZDUSD has gone to .83262, but the Friday candle hasnāt closed yet and is not showing a clear PA signal to enter, but I will be expecting a retrace and then take direction from that.
I have a similar problem: Following Johnathonās method would have me trading only a few times a month, and when I see a nice fat PA signal I tend to take it rather than do all the checking I should. Result is I get a lot of initial direction right and hit my TP1, but my losses are bigger than my wins, so (on Demo) im not making money
Well, Iām getting frustrated, Iāve spent last two weeks by looking at daily and 4H TF but without any trade. Iāve seen some good signals but it seemed to me there was no space (there were a few candleās lows and highs and this made me to pass them on) and the worst thing was to see them go in my favor but without me.
Oandaās MT4 charts, as you mentioned, is not based on NY close. Weāre all posting charts based on NY close in this thread, which is why you donāt see what the rest of us are seeing. I suggest setting up a demo with Pepperstone, FXDD, on another broker that uses NY close and 5 daily candles rather than six. There are several mentioned throughout this thread. Use this demo account to analyze your charts and then just place your trades on Oanda. Thatās what Iām doing.
Not every candle close is a support or resistance, only those where the direction changes.
for example on NZDUSD recently .83096, .82630, .82033, .81334, .80940.
taking a trade after a retrace in the direction of the trend gets you in at a point where the SL cab be small and the next TP can be far enough away for a workable R:R
I totally get you Belier. I was there as well, and probably still am. FSA/FRA is still difficult for me and I see too many of them and hesitate so so often! I guess one of the best solutions would be sharing charts, asking questions and reading, reading, reading.
Good to know others have similar problems though! Stay tuned, speak soon.
Hi buddy,
1/2. Itās not a Pin Bar, more indecision bar from your charts. Pin bar should have a loong protruding nose at least + few more characteristics - 301 Moved Permanently + 2 previous posts
I donāt think there is anything wrong with your support. There are many support-resistance lines on our graphs, itās just a matter of choosing the proper one, apparently the price has found some stronger support before getting to your point and might (not necessarily will!) reverse there. You never know what will happen. The price of EURUSD is currently at the bottom of a pretty long lasting range from first half of 2011, this level was closer to yours and was quite significant IMHO, this is where my support was drawn. You never know, it might break through there and fall down to your line next week!?
I wouldnāt consider it a PB either (on your chart), it has closed above previous candleās high. Please see point 1/2.