Forex Price Action

Hi Bigd

If you enter on daily dont look at 4hour, this is exactly why Johno says stick to one time frame.

Cheers

Touche I 100% agree with you and Iā€™m aware. But I have been trading the 4h during the day because I have alot of time I dont have your average 9-5 and Iā€™m six hours ahead of EST which allows me to trade during the afternoon/night during the new york session. Iā€™ll enter Daily trades at the end of NY which occurs less frequently.

Iā€™ve noticed I may be going through my 4h charts and happen to see a price action signal on a pair Iā€™m already trading. This is the only reason I have noticed contradictory signals against my Daily trades. But to your point I always stick to my plan on the Daily trade and keep the two separated. I note what time frame I entered in my trading journal to eliminate any confusion.

[QUOTE=Bigd41190;408293]Touche I 100% agree with you and Iā€™m aware. But I have been trading the 4h during the day because I have alot of time I dont have your average 9-5 and Iā€™m six hours ahead of EST which allows me to trade during the afternoon/night during the new york session. Iā€™ll enter Daily trades at the end of NY which occurs less frequently.

Guess you one of the fortunate ones then Bigd, I cant trade daily as my time zones makes it difficult. I do love daily S/R levels and place them on my 4hour charts, we would though have a few extra and less important levels with the 4hour. All part of the fun I guess :wink:

Iā€™ve found trading the 4h can be fun and they usually do not have TP levels as high as your daily trades would be due to the S/R levels, but you can still earn good R:R ratios on your trades which I like. My 4h trades typically last no longer than a day. And it also keeps me from going crazy sitting around all day haha.

Hey!

The trade is not over yet, it formed a nice looking PB on Friday showing rejection from resistance level, so be patient!

[I]ā€œPatience and perseverance have a magical effect before which difficulties disappear and obstacles vanishā€¦ā€[/I]

Richard

Andreiirk,

Am in Eur/GBP too , still holding on.Let the market do its work

Hello,

this is where I thought price would most likely go to if it broke the pin high and move higher. I was 6 pips away. Sorry about that :wink:

No magic, just using what price was telling us:

EURAUD DAILY CHART


Heya Z,

it is very hard, especially with new members to the thread most days.

There is one thing all novice traders want to do, not understanding that it is the same things that is killing them and that is ā€œTrade and trade a lotā€! The thinking goes that to make money they need to place trades and the more you can trade the more you will make right? Obviously not.

People know where I stand and I have learnt to let a lot more posts go through to the keeper. It is like a full time job telling people not to enter rubbish so it is just easier to let enter the trade and only post when good trades then present.

Johnathon

Johnathon,

Iā€™ve heard you say you donā€™t trade frequently and usually only on A1 trades. Do you have other professions or are you a sole FX trader? If you donā€™t want to answer I understand also I was just curious. Iā€™ve been trying to understand how someone could trade FX using the price action method and depend on it with the volatility of setups. Some weeks are slow some weeks you have setups everywhere. Would love to hear your input.

Best,
Big D

Hi Bigd

Its a funny thing isnt it? How can one make more money trading less?

Well, firstly if you trade less quality trades its not only going to affect your bank account but also you start to doubt yourself. Think about having 20 trades in a month, your strike rate is 50/50 but you smart and have proper money management and at the end of the month you squeeze a profit. :34:

Or, you patiently wait for better quality trades that just slap you in the face with simplicity but you only get say 6 trades. Through that month your bank account grows so too your confidence in your system and yourself. You still have a proper MM and at the end of the month you have a good profit. :33:

One thing im sure many people struggle with and many seniors always say to rather concentrate on your system, is how much money can I make. One is ALWAYS going to think that!!

So I say, look for any business of interest that you would buy. Do your due diligence on it then compare the same capital invested in forex.

Could you buy a MacDonald for $25k and make a decent living. Do remember with forex there are no staff, no rent, no weekends, you all know the list.

Just my few pennies for you all

Cheers

I got it, but from my poor trading experience I know that in most cases the RRR isnā€™t high esp. because of partial closing and as all of us know, every trade can loose even if it looks like the best trade youā€™ve ever seen.

I know the high win ratio is much more important than RRR in this method, but knowing the fact every trade can be a loss and taking trades like we are 60 pips to potential gain 20 pips before FRA/FSA comes into play can have destructive effect on our accounts if the such trade turns to loss without moving to FSA/FRA, it can easily eat our profit from a few winning trades. This is the worst for beginners who tend to take less than A+ setups because of lack of experience.

Thats why there is demo accounts

Remember though A+ includes knowing if the trade has a decent RR ratio to take the trade. MM is not discussed in detail here as its the only part Johno leave to us members. IMO its the MOST important part of trading.

Cheers

First of all I am certainly not suggesting in any way that you are wrong. Its something that J has always stressed and I have a huge amount of respect for him.

However this is something that I constantly seem to battle with in my head. Now I dont thinkt hat you should be taking crap trades for the sake of taking more trades. However to take your example of a 50% hit rate (i.e target hit) over 20 trades in a month, if you are getting an average target of 2x what you are risking then that is an excellent return. if you are risking 2.5% a trade then thats 12.5% return

The other way is say an 80% winrate which is surely the best anyone can ever hope for at say a average 1/1 RR, over 5 trades in month thats 7.5% so significantly less (and is 80% even realistic for most people?).

As I say I am not saying one is better than the other and this is purely hypothetical of course. But is it a very interesting conversation and something that a lot of people struggle with I would imagine.

Jā€™s strategy is excellent and one of the most solid that I have ever seen, but it seems that to make a living you would either have to have a huge account or risk a pretty large % each trade (which could be feasible given the high win rate I guess)

Looking forwards to further discussion and may input from Jonathonā€¦ :slight_smile:

Is anyone else also in the GBP/JPY trade also? I entered at the BUEB on the swing low @ 125.781 , Iā€™d like to post a chart with commentary but I am not sure what program you guys use to edit and label your charts?

Hi Bigd,
An mt4 platform will do will do it, or paint ā€¦I use bothā€¦
axitrader and pepperstone have free new york close demo accountsā€¦
cheers
pw

Hi Bigd, iā€™m on. As you see picture, i got it when the BUEB has formed and two red lines are Res and Sup i draw before trading. My target is the higher red line, SL = low of BUEB. I still follow EURGBP on short, the trade is still valid!


Hello Mate,

go and download a free program called[B]Jing Screen capture[/B]

You will then be able to take a picture of whatever you want on your screen and then write on it etc

What I do is take a screen shot and add the arrows etc with jing and then copy/paste over to paint and add the wording etc

Takes seconds and comes out great.

Johnathon

Great questions Paddy and other,

I will try and answer as many as I can in this one message.

Yes I trade FX and indices for living and have done for a few years now. Yes only take A+ trades but I also trade breakout trades, and continuations which I do not discuss here. I also occasionally do a little touch trading which is simply entering from key areas without the confirmation of PA signals.

In saying all that the majority of money made and also money risked comes from the trades played on the daily/4hr with the more traditional setups we discuss in here.

I like most traded a small account for a long time and please donā€™t for a second think that you are going to make a living with a 5k or 10k account. Why? Because if you only have a 10k account and you need for example 50k to live, you are going to have to make 500% every single year just to stay in the game of life!

Over a long period of time have average 65-70% win rate. That does NOT mean that I win every 6-7 out of 10 trades. I still take losses like everybody and this is unavoidable! What a win rate means is taking into account all the win, losses and break even combined over a long period of time what is your overall win rate. If someone wins the next 3 trades in a row does not mean they have a 100% win rateā€¦ I am sure you get what I am getting at.

One of my biggest mistakes when going full time was the need I had to make trades to make money. I had little to no room to move. What I mean is if I did not make money, then I had no money. What does this cause? It makes you take trades when they are not there and enter trades that are not the best because you have the pressure to make money.

Now I could go 6 months without making anything at all. I have overtime built u a buffer. I have done this learning from the past and realizing that the one thing that brings down traders is the need to trade and the need to enter traders even when they are not the best.

So what should all the people with small accounts be doing? First of all put yourself into the correct mindset. What we do is a business. Think of other professions. I am sure you have heard this before but think of it. To do anything where you make serious money you need a min of 4+ years and in most cases many more. Do you think that in four years time you could take that small account and build it into something large? Large enough for you to trade for living?

The account size you need to aim for is large enough that you only need 3 or so really awesome trades a month to make some nice money. Another way to think of it is an account big enough where 5 % a month would cover your expenses and cream on top. You need to work of the minimum amounts because when doing it for real you do not want to be stressing for that next trade! Of course you will have better months and also months where not so good so work of the minimums.

Do you think you could do this in four years? If you can, can you think of another job where you can have the power to make unlimited gains and money?

If people stuck to only the best trades they would be so so far in front of where they are now. Next to no1 does this. They are so hell bent in the thinking that more trading equals more money. This is 100% incorrect. If you stick to only the best setups you win rate will be higher and you RR per trade will also increase. The reason why less is more is so effective is because more trading does not equal more wins it actually equates more losses. Think of it like this: I can make 1 good trades and beat most that are making 4 trades. Why? Because my one trade will be a far better chance of winning and making a good RR whilst the other will have more chance of losing and every time you lose you take away the profits.

I hope this all make sense. Let me know if you have other questions,

Johnathon

It depends on the software of the broker too. Some software is good that let you put label on the charts and very user friendly, i would recommeded fxcm trading station, itā€™s very user friendly, just open a demo account, and you could probably do almost everything and itā€™s NY close.
Remember i only recommended their software, not the broker since iā€™ve heard bad things about them. So do your own due diligence.
The only their software lack is drawing arrows, but you could do that with regular lines. I hope they will add that feature in the next version.

Great post any many thanks for such a lengthy reply. Really appreciate you giving your approximate winrate and thinking of account size in terms of making 5% a month to cover costs plus a little more is a really helpful way of thinking about things in real terms.

I understand if you dont want to disclose or are not sure over the course of so many trades, but what is the average R/R in full points that you generally achieve? I remember an article about Rob (I think it was Rob?) that you wrote where he was just sticking to pin bars on the 4 hour for a period of 12 months and achieved around a 70% win rate with 2.5 average r/r. That is an unbelievable return and if you were to risk 5% per trade, 5 trades a month (as per the article) would equate to 26.5% a month (assuming 3 wins and 2 losses) :eek:.