It’s been discussed in here that CHF pairs are heavy manipulated by the Swissw National Bank and should be traded with great caution or avoided all together.[/QUOTE]
I’m on my iPhone but just from eyeing it, i can see there was a short term support trend line that had been respected twice already and so created some bit of evidence against shorting the trade. I would have traded it if it clearly broke the trend and failed attempt to break back, or a 1 hour bar that close below the trend. The trade wasn’t necessarily bad, but it had a little more bullish momentum than first meets the eye.
i also notice the AUDUSD BEUB, but i not think the big bullish is a signal because of the BEUB break the recent resistance 1.0220 and form another swing high at 1.0252.
I don’t see much price action signals yet after the crazy moves earlier today. I did catch a nice looking setup though on the NZDCAD pair. Very nice looking bearish pinbars have formed on the 1D, 4HR and 1HR charts. Pinbars on all 3 timeframes are rejecting 8 period EMA. PA formed on a very bearish downtrend line that has been respected twice now. I’m hoping for a forceful break through .84 or else I could see a wedge forming, and a breakout of the wedge. A failure to break down from a wedge, would put the second, less bearish downtrend line back into play.
I can see that you are a very successful trader and many congrats on your winning trades in the past couple of days. I beg your pardon and no offence meant but, you are using a system very very different to Johnathon’s and I think it would be ideal if you could create your own thread to discuss these setups and your system. I suggest this to avoid confusion to students who are starting to learn Johnathon’s system and to ensure that we keep this thread purely for his method for which as you know, there are many followers…
Do not feel bad about it my friend. I had a good long hard look at it before I turned it down, I was most tempted to take it and almost did, but at the last moment I withdrew on account of that resistance. Even after I decided against trading it, I was convinced that the higher high on the left would not be significant because it was just a one time resistance that had not turned support recently and that the trade would have gone on just fine. Such losses are just a cost of the business and it is great you have decided to have a log book. I wish I had one and was not so lazy … Safe trading to you.
Johno teaches that when price breaks the high/low of a setup, it will go to its first stall (trouble) area (several posts earlier in the thread).
In your case, there were 2 factors at play: FTA and BRN 1.4500. Price did all one hoped it to do, and it got to FTA. From there, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen next. In this case, price reversed and continued upward.
Conclusion: watch out for (V)BRNs and FTAs when entering trades. The best trade opps have room (space) to move.
Cheers
PS: just to remove confusion. I did not say to avoid all CHF pairs, I said to avoid EURCHF in particular
I took the GBPUSD 4hr pin bar with a stop loss right below as shown on the image. So far I have not set TP for this trade yet. I will let it run and see if it works out.
I had my eye on that pin but did not take it yet since the high of the pin has not been taken out.
<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>[/QUOTE]
This is an interesting trade set up. I agreed with Dudest’s opening comments regarding pull backs in the USD/JPY cross, however on cable I disagree.
For me the market trend is down (since the beginning of the year) and the recent up move was a correction. In this instance I would be looking to short the pair from a retrace back up following yesterday’s and this mornings moves. I am mobile at present so can’t post levels.
Therefore to me that pin bar, was against the trend and I wouldn’t take it.
I also think we need to be aware at least of what is going on in the market and the last 24 hrs have seen huge moves across USD pairs therefore you would be trading against a “surge” and looking to pick a bottom. I realise this isn’t pure PA if you consider such fundamentals!
So for me the “counter trend position” and the general market moves, meant it wasn’t a step up to take. I have made many losses trading counter trend pin bars!!!
I just wanted to give a little further commentary on the NZDCAD bearish pinbar that played out well overnight. It wasn’t able to really bust through the floor so it seems the second scenario I mentioned, the wedge, is starting to play out. If it bounces around the wedge today, it would reach the tip of the wedge by NY close. If you are shorting, Monday I would expect an explosive move one way or the other, which would allow for a very tight SL just above the trend line forming the wedge. A break above the trend would put a second bearish trend line into play.
pin bars aren’t guarunteed profit… That very well could have played out for a good RR, but other forces in play kept it from happening. That wasn’t the best trade for a couple reasons though, the bar formed against huge bearish momentum. If you draw a trend line you can see there was more downside left to test the trend. With that strong of bearish momentum, I would expect to see the trend line tested and even momentary broken. It’s on life support for the next hour to try and push back above the trend. If it is able to then I would look for bullish PA from the trend line, or if it can’t I would look for bearish PA from a valid horizontal resistance.
I noticed GPBUSD did close below the trend and over the past couple hours it has begun to act as resistance as it tries to retrace back. I also think it’s important to note that trends tend to break on the 4th revisit.
