Forex Price Action

Matthgm · September 19, 2013, 5:09pm

Yes, although with a 10pip buffer there’s still 29 points to my FTA

bigcheefer30 · September 19, 2013, 5:20pm

150 pip SL?

Kasravi · September 19, 2013, 5:36pm

Super Important.

Johnathon wrote in one of his posts lately to read the Price Action story.
What that means is that the best drawn level and most obvious setup in your eyes, is not worth a penny without reading the story behind it.

For instance, if there has been an obvious trend higher,then there is most likely a consolidation before the intial continuation.(like gbp/jpy lately)
If a trend is to be reversed it is less likely going to happen with 1 move, but rather a bunch of candles spiking, even if there was a setup indicating a reversal (I believe many have expierenced that on Gbp/Chf pin 11.sep.2013).

Anticipating a move based on what you understand from the price actions story is finding the Gold vein, PA setups in return are your tools.

Thus not every level and setup is tradeable and not every level with a setup either. The Price Action story is the Key.
Understand that, and never again will you be confused with why or how and if .

That’s what I believe is Johnathon’s magic ingredient.

Cheers.

Matthgm · September 19, 2013, 5:43pm

150ish - slightly more in fact.

Most of my trades are much less than 1:1 R/R to FTA, but I’m starting to think along the lines of this not being an issue. I’m playing with a high probability of making it from entry to FTA, taking some profit, moving to BE and then playing the rest of the trade out as a freebie. This is the theory anyway

kymberly2000 · September 19, 2013, 5:44pm

[QUOTE=“Kasravi;536453”]Super Important.

Johnathon wrote in one of his posts lately to read the Price Action story.
What that means is that the best drawn level and most obvious setup in your eyes, is not worth a penny without reading the story behind it.

For instance, if there has been an obvious trend higher,then there is most likely a consolidation before the intial continuation.(like gbp/jpy lately)
If a trend is to be reversed it is less likely going to happen with 1 move, but rather a bunch of candles spiking, even if there was a setup indicating a reversal (I believe many have expierenced that on Gbp/Chf pin 11.sep.2013).

Anticipating a move based on what you understand from the price actions story is finding the Gold vein, PA setups in return are your tools.

Thus not every level and setup is tradeable and not every level with a setup either. The Price Action story is the Key.
Understand that, and never again will you be confused with why or how and if .

That’s what I believe is Johnathon’s magic ingredient.

Cheers.[/QUOTE]

A good read and what a valuable thread, thank you to all who have participated

bigcheefer30 · September 19, 2013, 5:51pm

I hear ya.

bigcheefer30 · September 19, 2013, 6:49pm

[QUOTE=“bigcheefer30;536403”]

Thanks for pointing that out, I completely overlooked that.

Here’s JAN '10:
<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>

You’re right, that’s the last time Price got near that level. (Bottom line is 133.816)

Here’s the 4H I’m watching (Bottom line is 133.816 resistance from Jan '10)
<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>

+/-10 pip buffer beneath the low, gives you about +/-33 points to first target area. I’d prob place a nice tight stop around 134.45ish.[/QUOTE]

So what are your thoughts Kas?

bigcheefer30 · September 19, 2013, 7:05pm

An absolute must for everyone single one of us:

Trade Forex Like a Sniper and Start Trading From Kill Zones - Forex School Online

Mr_B_A_Barracus · September 19, 2013, 7:07pm

Forex_School_Online:

I am really not sure what you entered this one

When looking for high probability or A+ trades we are looking to stack as many factors in our favour as possible what would you say this trade has going for it other than being a valid bearish engulfing bar? I have read your post a few times and from it all I can gather is you are saying it is against the trend and you are really not sure about it at all and still you are entering it…

We need to constantly keep in mind that the last candle is just one candle and it is only the last candle on the chart that is made up of many candles. This last candle is just what we use for confirmation to get into a trade. It is the price action story that is the most important! This is what make the trade and is key to making a high probability trade. It is all these other candles that build the trends and key levels that go into the price action story that are the most important. That’s why we look at these first and market our key support and resistance before we even start looking for price action signals!

Here on this particular chart of the 4hr AUDJPY, price was in a clear up-trend and price had stalled. As we often talk about; for price to move in either direction it can’t just move straight up or down it needs to rotate to build orders and as traders buy and sell and make profit and then sell their positions. This is just normal market movement. If a trader or company makes a profit the only way to cash in this profit is to close their trade. Until the trade is closed the profit is paper profits. When closing the trade this can then cause an in-balance in orders and this is how we can get the rotations and retracements in price and this is why price never moves straight up or down. Traders always need to get in and out of the market and always will.

After price had moved higher it moved into consolidation and this is when it formed this small bearish engulfing bar. This small engulfing bar was not a large reversal signal but it had formed in a clear sideways move or in other words instead of forming up at a swing high like we need and like all the good examples we have shown in here it formed in a bunch of consolidation and traffic. If you are going to be trading straight back into traffic then you are going to be having a really hard time nearly every time! let me give you the read hot tip right now; don’t get into the habit of trading signals that are trading back into traffic or that are formed in consolidation. Stick to what we have taught in the first 50-200 pages.

AUDJPY 4HR CHART

Safe trading,

Johnathon

Hi Johnathon

Thanks ever so much for taking the time out to give feedback for this pretty awful trade I took yesterday. That tiny BEEB you pointed out was unfortunately the one I traded. Wow it looks even smaller seeing it like that!! Your post was really helpful to me and filled with nuggets of gold. It has given me lots more to think about about and apply. As you can probably tell, I am something of a very slow learner so thank you for your own and everyone’s patience here on the boards. It is clear that I need to be looking at the bigger picture and this is something that I have been missing, other than support and resistance I have been focusing only on looking for PB itself at those levels without considering other aspects. I even completely missed that the market was moving side ways.

I also wanted to say thank you for such an awesome and generous thread, I have every intention of joining Forex School Online as soon as I have the $$$ which hopefully wont be too long. I am determined to improve and profit from your trading principles as others have here in this thread and at the FSO.

Thanks again Johnathon

BA

Mr_B_A_Barracus · September 19, 2013, 7:18pm

Thanks for the link Bigcheefer, I will go check it out now.

I was reading Johnathons article regarding USDCHF earlier today and I am currently watching the kill zone right now for PA signals (or even continuation signals which was mentioned on Johnathons site and actually there is a possible pendent forming on the H4 chart) but I am also trying to take in the bigger picture now and I notice that there is a line of resistance (around 0.9068) very close below what would be entry which is a bit of concern. Sorry to keep asking a lot of question but is it being considered that there is a good chance that this line will also be broken due to the massive bearish movement or is this something I should be weary of before entering as this line of RS it is approaching seems relatively strong. What are your thoughts?

Mr_B_A_Barracus · September 19, 2013, 7:48pm

Actually, please ignore my above post… I realize that if I am having to ask questions about this then my knowledge base isn’t ready to take this on and therefore this wouldn’t be an A+ trade for me at this moment in time.

boynep · September 19, 2013, 9:35pm

Trade idea:

NZDUSD. Daily Pin at swing high. The pinbar rejected a VBRN 0.8400. FTA/TP is 0.8175. It’s in clear area. Entering at the break of the pin.

The only problem is it’s against the trend. SL of 0.8451 will give a RR of 1: 1.12. If price moves higher PB is invalidated.

bigcheefer30 · September 19, 2013, 9:43pm

[QUOTE=“boynep;536546”]<img src=“http://forums.babypips.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=51551”/>

Trade idea:

NZDUSD. Daily Pin at swing high. The pinbar rejected a VBRN 0.8400. FTA/TP is 0.8175. It’s in clear area. Entering at the break of the pin.

The only problem is it’s against the trend. SL of 0.8451 will give a RR of 1: 1.12. If price moves higher PB is invalidated.[/QUOTE]

Hey boynep. The candle you are pointing out is not a technically sound Pinbar. Take a look at this photo below and compare it to yours…a picture is worth a thousand words…

Check out the first couple hundred pages of this thread as well, there is a plethora of knowledge that you can find here neatly presented all in this one thread. Welcome aboard!

bigcheefer30 · September 19, 2013, 9:58pm

[QUOTE=“Esosa;536395”]whats you gys take on nzdche pair? a pin formed at the top of the range[/QUOTE]

Can you supply a chart please? My broker doesn’t offer this pair but I’d like to take a peek

bigcheefer30 · September 19, 2013, 9:59pm

[QUOTE=“jackson905;536399”]

Yup. thats a 4 Day candle :)[/QUOTE]

Interesting TF, have you had success at this level? I guess all the same principles apply, and the signals are probably really strong.

semmee · September 19, 2013, 10:07pm

Hey,

As someone above stated, its not technically a pin bar. The body is in the middle of the candle suggesting it was a back and forth between the bulls and bears, with the bulls pulling a bit ahead. As you can see, trend is bullish and the candle body did close bullish. bigcheefer30 above gave a really good example of a pinbar and its a pretty damn beautiful one at that.

tonyro44 · September 19, 2013, 10:10pm

This is a mid level high , i would trade it with a tight S/L if i were deeply in love with this pair only. Not a + set up.

bigcheefer30 · September 19, 2013, 10:20pm

[QUOTE=“tonyro44;536560”]This is a mid level high , i would trade it with a tight S/L if i were deeply in love with this pair only. Not a + set up.[/QUOTE]

I hear ya…this is not my pic by the way guys…it’s one I have saved on my ipad from early posts in this thread…

jackson905 · September 19, 2013, 10:50pm

What sett said was actually true. It is much safer to trade with the trend here. You may have taken profit here but thats not the point, bad trades does work out sometimes but it doesn’t make the bad trade a right one. It is the edge in the long run that make you a consistently profitable trader.

Besides, if this level were to be a good level to take counter trade,

It is not valid BUEB
PA is not SIGNIFICANT enough to take

My 2 cents.

Jack

jackson905 · September 19, 2013, 11:01pm

Yes all principles are the same no matter what the TF is. For Daily TF and above, the price signal are more accurate compared to intra day.

Therefore you can trade 2D, 3D, weekly etc.

Anyone else looking at that pair? Dudest?