Forex today: Daily analysis

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
16

ECB meeting is key for the EUR

13.06.2018

The euro is under pressure. Its fall continues since the middle of April. EUR/USD reached the lowest levels since November 2017. A strong plunge of the single currency is caused by the weak economic data. The European economy suffers because of political problems in Italy, the Brexit deal, and trade wars.

The European Central Bank will release the interest rate at 14:45 MT time on June 14. At 15:30 MT time, the central bank will hold a press conference.

The ECB has been keeping the interest rate on hold since March 2016. Investors don’t expect the interest rate to be changed as the central bank hasn’t ended the quantitative easing yet. At the previous meeting, the ECB stated that “members broadly agreed that an ample degree of monetary policy accommodation remained necessary to accompany the economic expansion and secure the gradual convergence of inflation to levels below, but close to, 2%. The remaining uncertainties and the still muted underlying inflation pressures continued to justify caution and underlined the need to maintain patience, persistence, and prudence with regard to monetary policy”. It puts additional pressure on the euro.

If the central bank stays cautious this time as well, the euro won’t have chances to recover.

• Dovish ECB – weak euro;

• Hawkish ECB – strong euro.

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17

China demonstrates signs of slowing economic surge

14.06.2018

China’s major financial institution has been heavily distracted by the immediate soar in borrowing costs after the American Federal Reserve System, while Chinese economic data for May disclosed that the economy of the leading Asian country is losing momentum.

In May, in this Asian country industrial output tacked on by up to 6.8% in contrast with 2017, as the National Bureau of Statistics revealed. It turned out to be lower than the previous reading of 7% as well as experts’ estimate of 6.9%.

Additionally, the bureau informed that in May retail sales went up by only 8.5%, although market experts had hoped for a 9.6% leap after a soar of 9.4% in April.

Investments in fixed assets rallied by 6.1% in May in contrast with the same period of 2017, which is also lower than the estimate of market experts as well as the previous reading of 7%. Evidently, it appeared to be the slowest surge since 1999.

In May, the unemployment rate in urban areas went down to about 4.8% versus April’s reading of 4.9%.

With a steep slowdown in lending surge as well as the threat of an escalating trade dispute with America, China’s enterprises are coming across increasingly quite prospects. The country’s major bank made an attempt to back surge by ramping up liquidity and although it can still lift the Fed’s rate for market experts, the very fact that it didn’t do so right now is interpreted as an indication of concern about the Chinese economy.

The data is 100% confirmed by a slowdown in industry as well as retail trade in May that points to a slowdown in GDP for the second quarter.

China’s attempting to provide liquidity for the purpose of mitigating any economic downturn and assisting lenders in meeting their repayment obligations.

18

Asia-Pacific stocks are multidirectional

15.06.2018

On Friday, Asia-Pacific equities demonstrated different directions amid worries of trade wars. It’s due to the fact American leader Donald Trump approved duties on Chinese goods worth nearly $50 billion. Previously, the Chinese government told that it would adequately respond in case of new tariffs from the US.

The common currency went down abruptly yesterday after the ECB uncovered its plans to stop its program of purchasing bonds and pledged to keep interest rates for about a year.

Japan’s currency went down a bit after it became known that Japan’s key bank, based on the outcomes of the two-day gathering, left the deposit rate intact at -0.1%, while the target yield level of 10-year bonds was left at 0%. Additionally, the major bank still intends to purchase government bonds at an annual rate of about Y80 trillion.

The Australian market keeps ascending mostly due to upbeat signals from Wall Street as well as higher commodity prices.

As for the banking sphere, Westpac, National Australia Bank, Commonwealth Bank and ANZ Banking managed to ascend in the range 0.6%-1.3%.

Besides this, Rio Tinto went up by nearly 1%. As for BHP Billiton, it gained 0.5%, Fortescue Metals edged up by 0.1% backed by leaping iron ore.

BHP Billiton reported it’s on the verge of spending $3.9 billion for the purpose of developing its majority stake in South Flank, thus generating over 600 permanent jobs.

Besides this, the gold digger Evolution Mining ramped up its capitalization by over 1%, Newcrest Mining gained more than 2% right after gold got to its monthly maximum.

The Japanese market demonstrated good profits due to upbeat replies from Wall Street as well as a weaker Japanese yen.

Among the key exporters, the equities of Canon rallied by 0.2%, Panasonic soared by 0.3%, while Mitsubishi Electric and Sony lost nearly 1%.

19

European equities go down on trade tensions

18.06.2018

On Monday, European equities kept diving for a second day because concerns over a trade conflict between the United States and China kept market participants on the edge. Meanwhile, cable manufacturer Nexans slumped following a revenue warning.

The STOXX 600 index dived 0.6% after Donald Trump powered trade tensions by proceeding with his tough tariff stance on China’s imports, giving the Chinese government grounds to instantly respond.

Germany’s DAX sank by 0.8%, suppressed by concerns that a downtime over migration policy could have Merkel’s three-month-old coalition government destabilized.

Other suppressing factors for the German index were represented by software maker SAP, sportswear maker Adidas and industrial group Siemens – all of them declined 1%-1.9%.

France’s Nexans went down 18.2%, while its Italian outcome headed south 2.2%.

French gas and power group Engie headed south by 2.2% having told unscheduled outages at its Belgian nuclear reactors are going to have an impact of nearly 250 million euros on its net and core revenue this year.

In general, deal-making activity powered stock moves.

Norwegian Air Shuttle ascended 8.5% after Lufthansa told it was cooperating with the Norwegian carrier as for a probable combination.

Norwegian drew attention of British Airways owner IAG. As a result, IAG managed to ascend 1.1%, while Lufthansa equities went down 0.1%.

In addition to this, mid-sized financial institution Virgin Money jumped by 2.5% after CYBG approved a 1.7 billion-pound deal to buy its counterpart, thus creating the UK’s sixth-largest financial institution. Meanwhile, CYBG managed to gain 0.1%, Virgin Money pared profits, being nearly intact.

Aerospace supplier Cobham tacked on by 5.5% following an upgrade to overweight. The upgrade was carried out by Morgan Stanley. Market analysts point out that the company’s current managers have managed to stabilize performance. All the necessary measures have been taken to ensure operational delivery.

20

American equities go down suppressed by trade clashes

19.06.2018

On Tuesday, American futures pointed to a dive amid soaring worries about the trade conflict.

The Dow blue chip index headed south by 1.31% being worth 24688.0, the S&P 500 futures sank by 1.10% ending up with 2,749.25. As for the futures of high-tech Nasdaq 100, they slumped by 1.04% demonstrating an outcome of 7200.00.

Tensions in trade relations between China and the United States resumed. The both leading economies keep threating each with further tariffs on imported stuff.

The latest event was Donald Trump’s threat to impose extra tariffs on China’s goods worth $200 billion. Donald Trump stressed that the new American tariffs will come into force in case China denies to change its approach to trading and proceeds with imposing new duties on US goods.

On Friday, US leader uncovered the introduction of a 25% tariff on China’s goods worth approximately $50 billion. Responding to this move, the leading Asian country came up with a 25% tariff of $34 billion on US stuff, including soybeans and vehicles.

The equities of companies in most sectors of the American economy headed south. The equities of Apple inched down by 0.92%, the stocks of Twitter Inc lost 1.74%, while the stocks of General Electric went down by 1.59%. As for the equities of Tesla, they edged down by nearly 1.8%. Additionally, the stocks of JPMorgan decreased by 1.23%, while the stocks of Intel lost 1.32%.

As for the shares of Intuit, the company specializing in software development, they dived by 0.40%.

European equities found themselves in the red zone. France’s CAC 40 declined by 1.03%, Germany’s DAX lost 1.24%, while London’s FTSE 100 headed south by 0.41%. As for the European Euro Stoxx 50 index, it tumbled by 1.10%, while the Spanish IBEX 35 lost 0.72%.

21

Daily News: a big day for Central Banks

More at:

20.06.2018

A day will be full of speeches of central banks’ Kings! Mr. Lowe, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Mr. Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank, Mr. Kuroda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, and Mr. Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve will participate in a panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking, in Portugal (16:30 MT time). Let’s see what new they are ready to present.

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22

WeeklyCryptoNews

22.06.2018

Just for fun!

John McAfee, founder of McAfee Inc.: "All ICOs are Securities! I will not now, nor will I ever, accept this as a reality. I am submitting, now, to this law, but I will fight with every last breath to ensure that this absurd overreach by the SEC will not stand!! It will not stand!”

Several days later…

“Due to SEC threats, I am no longer working with ICOs nor am I recommending them, and those doing ICOs can all look forward to arrest. It is unjust but it is reality. I am writing an article on an equivalent alternative to ICOs which the SEC cannot touch. Please have Patience.” What can we say? Mr. McAfee and show are synonyms.

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin is lower and lower. The cryptocurrency couldn’t stick above the resistance at $6,500 and it plunged. Up to now, the digital currency is trading around $6,250. The support is still at $6,000.

On the daily chart, the “Flag” continuation pattern was formed. It signals the continuation of the bearish trend.

According to Tom Lee, a reason for the Bitcoin’s correction is Bitcoin Futures.

The Bank of Korea won’t launch its own cryptocurrency yet. According to the Bank, digital currencies are too risky and an implementation of such assets will cost a lot to the society and even can inflict moral damages. However, the Bank doesn’t refuse that it can launch it later. But it may happen only if the cryptocurrency will be carefully tested.

The Head of Circle Jeremy Allaire said that every fiat currency will have a cryptocurrency counterpart. He also announced a launch of USD Coin – a stable cryptocurrency that will be dollar-backed.

If you want to use cryptocurrencies, you should go to Australia. A pharmacy started accepting cryptocurrencies as a payment in one of the cities. Buyers can pay for medical supplies with Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dash, and Ethereum. It’s worth saying that you can use cryptocurrencies in different places in Australia. For example, citizens can buy Bitcoin and Ether in news stalls.

A cryptocurrency project Turcoin of an Istanbul company Hipper appeared to be a financial pyramid. One of the founders left the country with the money of investors. Sells of the altcoin started in October 2017. Founders of the token called the Turcoin a national cryptocurrency and had been organizing events for investors with celebrities and expensive presents. However, it appeared to be a scam.

A representative of Goldman Sachs said that the company is working on services to work with cryptocurrencies. The company is going to launch its own flexible version of futures, known as a non-deliverable forward. Moreover, the bank will implement futures, trading payments on which will be carried out in Bitcoin, and not in fiat currencies.

However, previously the СЕО Goldman Sachs Lloyd Blankfien announced that Bitcoin doesn’t deserve his attention and that he doesn’t use cryptocurrencies.

According to a research, Bitcoin mining consumes a half of electricity it is supposed to consume.

Cryptocurrency exchanges

Hackers attacked the cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb and stole 35 billion South Korean Won (about $31 million).

Blockchain

The Bank for International Settlements declared that if blockchain is used for daily payments, the Internet may stop working. The bank thinks that only supercomputers will be able to support retail transactions with the necessary power. It’s well-known that the Bank has a negative attitude to Bitcoin and blockchain. The General manager of the bank said that Bitcoin is a bubble, Ponzi scheme, and an ecological disaster.

The Department of Homeland Security (US) allocated the fourth grant to the blockchain startup Factom. The received financing in the amount of about $192K will be used to test a platform that is supposed to protect data received from security cameras and sensors of the US Border Service. Factom received the first grant from the US government in 2016.

Bitcoin $6,385 (-5.35%)

DASH $244.78 (-8%)

Ethereum $493.80 (-7.74%)

Litecoin $89.357 (-8.24%)

23

German business morale shows its worst reading for more than a year

25.06.2018

In June, German business confidence slipped to its lowest value for more than a year, thus dropping a hint that the mood among company executives in the EU’s number one economy is worsening as the world is getting closer to a full-fledged trade conflict.

Activity in all four sectors gauged by the Munich-based Ifo institute in the survey conducted on Monday - services, trade, manufacturing as well as construction – headed south, contributing to signs the German economy is currently speeding down after the previous year’s boom.

Ifo told that its business climate index slipped to about 101.8, which is the lowest outcome since May last year. The given outcome was a bit firmer than anticipated in a Reuters consensus estimate of 101.7.

However, market experts excluded an economic downtime. Additionally, they forecast the German economy would keep soaring although at a slower tempo than the previous year’s outcome of 2.5%.

The mild dive reaffirms expert’s narrative of the German economy speeding down to a normal surge level. However, it shouldn’t be regarded as a downturn or recession.

Much of the German data released in 2018 has pointed to the fact that the German economy is speeding down.

Industrial activity as well as exports happened to be dismal in the first four months. Additionally, American leader Donald Trump is currently threatening to put huge duties on car imports from the European Union - a trade that Germany has always dominated.

Moreover, German business leaders are also concerned by the fact that a parallel trade feud between Beijing and Washington could harm exporters, traditionally relying on the world’s two leading economies for surge.

Some market experts point out the economic boom has already stopped and Germany’s economy is demonstrating signs of normalization.

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24

Daily News: trade war is a real threat

26.06.2018

It’s something worth to look at!

A lot of comments from authoritative financial institutions.

JP Morgan determines 7 key risks for the second half of 2018:

Trade conflicts become an economically-significant trade war.
US politics becomes even more complicated (Mueller investigation, mid-term elections).
US core PCE inflation overshoots 2%, triggering faster Fed tightening.
OPEC-Russia relaxation of oil accord becomes disorderly.
Italy over eases fiscal policy and courts a funding crisis.
US’s strike-first-negotiate-later approach to diplomacy brings military entanglement in South China Sea, Korea, Iran or Syria.
Liquidity risk turns a minor macro event into a major financial one.

Traders, take these risks into consideration as they will affect trading!

A Barclays outlook for the second half of 2018. According to the company, the USD is supposed to rise against the euro but fall against the JPY. A year-end forecast: EUR/USD 1.12, USD/JPY 107. Emerging markets will continue weakening against the USD. USD/CNY is anticipated to end the year at 6.6, USD/INR will be at 72.
Goldman Sachs analysts worry about trade wars. According to the bank, trade war risks are more than just talk now. Unclear messages about the further escalation of the trade issue really confuse investors and roil their sentiment.

Let’s move to daily news.

The US dollar index is trying to recover. On Monday, it closed below $94. Up to now, it’s slightly above $94. The further direction will depend on CB consumer confidence data (17:00 MT time). The forecast is weaker than the previous data, however, if the actual one is greater than the forecast, the US dollar index will be able to continue rising. However, a great surge to previous highs at $95 isn’t anticipated.

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The EUR/USD pair couldn’t break the resistance at 1.1720 and continue the rise to the previous highs. Up to now, EUR/USD has been moving down. The support is at 1.1610. No important economic data will be released today. As a result, the further movement will depend on the USD’s strength. If the index rises, EUR/USD will go closer to the support, otherwise, it will be able to return to the resistance at 1.1720.

USD/JPY is trading near 50.0 Fibo level that doesn’t let the pair move down. Moreover, 50-day MA (109.65) is an additional support for USD/JPY. Trade wars weigh on markets, however, the Japanese yen needs an additional support. If the USD is stronger, the pair will trade above 109.65, otherwise, it will break the support levels and will move to 109.20.

Some news from China. The People’s Bank of China cut the reference rate again. Up to now, it’s at the lowest level since January 10: 6.5180 (yesterday 6.4893). During the meeting with a group of US and European businessmen, Chinese President Xi Jinping said China will respond to US tariffs. Nothing new.

No significant changes in other pairs’ movements.

That is all for today. Follow markets’ news with us!

25

Gold dives as trade war worries relieve

27.06.2018

On Wednesday, gold edged down because the evergreen buck managed to strengthen, while trade tensions relieved.

August delivery headed south by 0.20% coming up with $1,257.40 a troy ounce on the Comex exchange.

Trade war worries relieved after news that the US government is taking a less hawkish approach to foreign investment limitations. US leader wants Congress to allow the revised Committee on Foreign Investment of the US to have domestic technology protected. However, Donald Trump is reluctant to come up with a national emergency law against China, as one senior administration official revealed.

Market participants had been on edge for the last time over worries that US leader would restrict foreign investment into American technology businesses in the latest trade feud move.

Market participants often opt for gold in times of political meltdown because the precious commodity is normally considered to be a safe haven from the negative impact of geopolitics. However, this popular precious metal has struggled in the face of the fresh political risks.

At the same time the evergreen buck managed to edge up. As a rule, gold goes up as the evergreen buck dives due to the fact this commodity is denominated in the American dollar therefore it’s very sensitive to any fluctuations in this currency.

Aside from that, the USD index, gauging the greenback’s value versus a pack of major currencies, leapt about 0.34% staying close to a year’s peak of 94.68.

Bullion gets less affordable for holders of other assets the US currency tacks on and respectively cheaper when it dips.

Apart from that silver futures tumbled 0.15% on the Comex exchange reaching $16.225 a troy ounce. As for other precious commodities, platinum futures went down 1.91% demonstrating $858.00, palladium futures dived 0.94% ending up with $945.70 an ounce. Moreover, copper futures rallied 0.18% trading at $3.021 a pound.

26

American futures rally, as traders look ahead to economic reports

28.06.2018

On Thursday, American futures headed north because market participants looked ahead to a bunch of economic reports.

The S&P 500 futures managed to acquire 0.39% being worth 2,715.50. Dow futures tacked on by 0.38% coming up with 24,227.0. At the same time, tech heavy Nasdaq 100 futures ascended by 0.43% trading at 7,028.00.

Market participants are actually waiting for the GDP data expected to be released soon. Jobless claims are anticipated to be published soon too.

At the same time, trade tensions were still in the back of traders’ minds right after the White House told it’s going to rely on the Committee on Foreign Investment in America have domestic technology protected from foreign investment.

Netflix turned out to be amid the top-notch performers in pre-market trading, soaring by 1.44%. At the same time Tesla managed to edge up by 0.78%, Facebook soared by 0.18%. As for Microsoft, its equities rallied by 0.47%. Additionally, Advanced Micro Devices Inc inched up by 1%.

In addition to this, Tata Motors Limited ADR headed south by 2.35%, Pier 1 Imports Inc went down by approximately 15.67% after its sales tumbled more than anticipated in the first quarter.

Meanwhile, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Nike as well as Accenture PLC are anticipated to uncover their financial outcomes on Thursday.

In the European bloc, equities generally slumped. In Germany, the DAX headed south by 0.73%, in France the CAC 40 dipped by 0.35%, while in London, the FTSE 100 lost 0.01%. The Euro Stoxx 50 edged down by 0.49%. In Spain, the IBEX 35 lost 0.41%.

Gold futures went down by 0.18% being worth $1,253.80 a troy ounce. Crude futures managed to gain by 0.25% trading at $72.94 a barrel. Estimating the US currency’s purchasing power versus six main currencies, the USD index tumbled by 0.17% being worth 94.86.

27

#WeeklyCryptoNews

29.06.2018

Nobel economics prize winner Robert Shiller: “It’s (Bitcoin) a social movement. It’s an epidemic of enthusiasm. It is a speculative bubble. That doesn’t mean that it will go to zero…Bitcoin is a social movement whose popularity splits along geographic lines in the US.”

Steve Wozniak, the co-founder of Apple called blockchain a “Bubble”, however, it still has the future and thinks Bitcoin is still “just amazing”.

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin is falling further. The cryptocurrency is under the support at $6,000. It’s a warning sign for the further Bitcoin direction. On Monday, the price managed to return above $6,000, however, couldn’t stick there. The next support is at $5,500. Bitcoin needs a support as soon as possible, otherwise, it will fall to $3,200 as analytics predicted before.

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Tether released additional 250 million USDT again. Experts noticed it caused a surge of Bitcoin price and a rise in the trading volume. The founder of Litecoin Charlie Lee said that such situation isn’t new for Bitcoin. Previously the rise of the price happened exactly because of the additional release of USDT tokens.
Analysts said that a launch of ETF can push Bitcoin price up. If ETFs attract 24 million American investors and 14 million from the whole world, it will add $84 billion and $336 billion to the market capitalization.
More than 40 Bitcoin forks appeared at the market less than in a year. According to an analyst, such platforms as Fokgen let almost everyone create clones of major cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrency investors don’t take them seriously. Just have a look at their names: Bitcoin Pizza, Bitcoin Candy, and Bitcoin God. According to June data, only Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Diamond, and Bitcoin Private are Bitcoin forks.
Antpool and BTC.com pools (under control of mining giant Bitmain) managed to mine 16.5% and 25.5% of all Bitcoin blocks. Cryptocurrency market worries that Bitmain may take control under 51% of the network’s hashrate. A threat that the major part of Bitcoin network will be controlled by one company may pull Bitcoin price even lower.
Investors prefer Ethereum to Bitcoin and are for the regulation of the cryptocurrency industry. According to a poll of Foley & Lardner LLP (US), despite the recent correction and uncertain regulation, 58% of respondents are open to investments and ready to develop the cryptocurrency business. 84% thinks that ICO should be under control of a federal government or separate states, 68% is for a regulation of buy/sell cryptocurrency operations.
FBI investigate 130 cryptocurrency cases. Cryptocurrencies were used while a human beings traffic, blackmailing offenses, a cybercrime and a drug industry.

Regulation

China is going to implement cryptocurrencies in the financial system.
Three bills about the blockchain regulation and ICO will be considered in Malta. It’s worth saying that Malta is one of the most cryptocurrency-friendly countries. Only in the last few months, Binance, OKEx and Bitbay cryptocurrency exchanges announced an opening of offices in the country.
Financial Services Commission of South Korea tightened control under cryptocurrency exchanges. Banks serving cryptocurrency exchanges have to track the movement of both funds in the accounts of traders and their own assets of cryptocurrency exchanges.
Facebook allowed limited cryptocurrency ads. To get a permission, advertisers have to provide Facebook with data on licenses, listing on stock exchanges data and any important public information about their businesses.

Cryptocurrency exchanges

The number of clients of the cryptocurrency exchange DX Exchange (based on the NASDAQ infrastructure) exceeded 500,000 people even before its launch. The cryptocurrency exchange will offer trading with 0% commission.
Coinbase will provide trading with the GBP. In March the cryptocurrency exchange started cooperating with Barclays (British Bank).

Blockchain

Alibaba tested payments with blockchain successfully. It took just 3 seconds to make a payment.
South Korea will invest $200 million to develop blockchain.
According to a research, 46 states have already presented more than 200 blockchain projects. The research company noticed that Blockchain can help states to resist manipulation of data and increase the transparency of operations, but noted that the “exaggerated hype” around the blockchain outshines its real capabilities.

Bitcoin $5,898 (-3.45%)

DASH $218.81 (-1.41%)

Ethereum $415.17 (-4.30%)

Litecoin $73.548 (-6.42%)

28

Daily News: lots of news after the weekend

09:55 02.07.2018

North Korea surprised again. The country is building its nuclear weapon. Despite an agreement between the US and NK, North Korea doesn’t want to lose its power. Tensions are escalating.
Some comments on trade tensions. Mr. Trump said that “the European Union is possibly as bad as China, only smaller”. “They send a Mercedes in, we can’t send our cars in. Look what they do to our farmers. They don’t want our farm products. Now in all fairness, they have their farmers … But we don’t protect ours and they protect theirs”. Let’s see whether there will be more comments on trade tensions. The aussie and the Japanese yen should react.
The Japanese yen reacted to negative news a little bit. USD/JPY tested the resistance at 110.90 but couldn’t break it and rebounded. Despite the rebound, bulls still prevail as the USD is still strong. The resistance lies at 110.90. If the US dollar index weakens, the pair will turn around to the support at 110.20 (200-day MA).

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The US dollar index rebounded from the support at $94.50. Up to now, it has been moving up. The resistance lies at $95. Today traders will look at ISM manufacturing PMI data (17:00 MT time). The forecast is weaker than the previous data, however, if the actual data is greater than the forecast, the US dollar index will go up further.

29

Euro tacks on

03.07.2018

On Tuesday, the common currency managed to ascend because political risk in Germany receded, while the evergreen buck and the Japanese yen both dived due to the fact that worries over trade tensions relieved, although market sentiment was still uncertain.

The currency pair EUR/USD soared by 0.26% hitting 1.1669 having concluded the previous trading marathon down 0.32%.

The common currency was backed after German Chancellor Angela Merkel managed to come to a compromise as for immigration policy with her coalition colleagues, thus tackling an issue, which could potentially question the very future of the German government.

Gauging the greenback’s purchasing power versus six main currencies, the USD index slumped by 0.2% being worth 94.41.

Asian markets demonstrated a late soar having slipped overnight, although market participants were still on edge ahead of a looming deadline in the trade clashes between China and America.

American duties on $34 billion of China’s goods are due to come true on July 6. Meanwhile, China is on the verge to strongly respond with duties of its own on the same value of American goods.

American leader Donald Trump is overwhelmed with ambitious plans to have America’s key trading partners penalized, including the European bloc, Canada and Mexico, which is in line with his ‘America First’ stance, which many traders fear will impact global surge.

The evergreen buck inched up versus the Japanese yen. The currency pair USD/JPY rallied to 110.98.

The common currency rallied versus the Japanese yen too. The currency pair EUR/JPY added 0.36% being worth 129.52.

As for the UK currency, it tacked on, with GBP/USD gaining 0.27% trading at 1.3156.

The trade sensitive New Zealand and Australian dollars managed to grow too. The currency pair AUD/USD tacked on by 0.64% being worth 0.7386, the currency pair NZD/USD gained by 0.15% coming up with a reading of 0.6725.

30

China’s Yuan tacks on PBOC’s dovish statement

04.07.2018

On Wednesday, China’s Yuan managed to ascend versus the evergreen buck, just a day after the country’s main financial institution had markets assured it would keep the national currency steady in the face of heightened concerns as for trade clashes. However, equities were still under pressure.

As a matter of fact, Chinese currency along with equity markets have been wavering ahead of July 6, when American duties on $34 billion worth of China’s products are set to come into effect. The Chinese government has told it would response with duties on products from the United States.

In June, the Chinese Yuan faced its worst month on record, losing approximately 3.3% of its value versus the US currency, and the decline resumed on Monday.

On Tuesday, it bounced off after the statement from PBOC Governor Yi Gang and resumed riding the updraft on Wednesday, thus putting the Chinese Yuan on track for its first two-day gaining marathon since the middle of June as well as the best day since late March.

The Chinese Yuan hit 6.6009 against the greenback, just 0.65% stronger than Tuesday’s outcome.

Some traders pointed out that the PBOC’s clue turned out to be clear enough, although the market would monitor and timely react to developments ahead of July 6.

Major Chinese equity indexes happened to be less enthusiastic. They started the trading day flip-flopping around Tuesday’s close before jumping with both feet into negative territory to stay there.

The CSI300 Index headed south by 1.3%, the Shanghai Composite Index lost 1%.

An index gauging the 50 most representative blue-chips in Shanghai, also known as “nifty 50”, headed south approximately 1% showing a 14-month minimum.

The Hang Seng Index dived more than 1.3%, while an index, gauging mainland companies, dipped nearly 1.7%.

31

Get ready for the NFP excitement

05.07.2018

There are many economic indicators. Some can be ignored, some can be traded and some are so well-known among traders that they should be definitely taken into account no matter what you plan to do.

US Nonfarm Payrolls or NFP for short is one of such indicators. The secret of its high market impact is that it’s very difficult to forecast, so the actual reading usually significantly differs from the forecast level. Traders often get surprised with NFP, and the US dollar comes in motion.

NFP will be released at 15:30 MT time on July 6. Notice that it is not the only release that will come out at this time. It will be accompanied by the publication of Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. As for average earnings, the higher is its growth, the better for the USD. The situation is opposite to the unemployment rate. The USD strengthens when the unemployment rate declines.

• If the data is better than the forecast, the USD will go up.

• If the data is worse than the forecast, the USD will go down.

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32

#WeeklyCryptoNews

06.07.2018

The Bank of Finland released a paper “The Great Illusion of Cryptocurrencies” where they explain why the concept of a digital currency is a “fallacy.” The main idea is cryptocurrencies are not real currencies but instead “accounting systems for non-existent assets.”

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin has been trying to break the resistance at $6,500 during the whole week but failed. Up to now, the cryptocurrency has been trading near $6,350. The trading isn’t extensive. If no positive news encourages the digital currency, it will fall further. The support is at $6,200 (50-hour and 100-hour MA). If Bitcoin finds support, it will return to $6,500 (200-hour MA).

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Venezuela will build houses for homeless people financing it with the national cryptocurrency El Petro. The government will invest 909K Petro.
Ripple is sued again. The company is accused of violating the law in the sphere of securities. According to the complainant, the company increases the price purposely. It’s worth remembering that the company was issued for the first time in May this year.
During the first six months of 2018, swindlers laundered money in the amount of $761 million with cryptocurrencies through illegal activities. To compare, during the whole 2017, swindlers laundered just $266 million.

Regulation

Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand imposed restrictions for ICO projects. Before launching the ICO, the company will have to get an approval of 2 authorities. Moreover, companies can raise investments only in Thai baht or in the cryptocurrencies that were approved before. They are Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Litecoin, Ripple, and Stellar.
The Parliament of Malta passed bills on cryptocurrencies. Malta is the first country in the world that provides legal certainty in this field.
The largest US cryptocurrency company Coinbase accepts investments from institutional investors from the USA and the EU.

Cryptocurrency exchanges

Bittrex platform and invest.com trading company will launch a new cryptocurrency exchange for residents of the Eurozone. Users will be able to trade about 200 digital tokens. The new platform will support a blockchain expansion.
Huobi Pro cryptocurrency exchange will open a new trading platform where users will be able to trade 10 cryptocurrencies in a pair with the Australian dollar.

Blockchain

A new idea of the British Parliament. They ask the government of the UK to use blockchain in the state sector wider and create a new position of the Head of the blockchain.
Microsoft Taiwan announced a cooperation with Chinese companies Digital China и Hot Cool for a blockchain project. Companies will implement the technology to financial, entertainment and electronic commerce sectors.
An experiment on a blockchain poll was successfully conducted in the Switzerland city, Zug. Moreover, a representative of the government of Zug said that cryptocurrency companies will get a full access to bank services.

Just for fun. According to talks, Satoshi Nakamoto will write a book where he will answer all rousing questions.

Bitcoin $6,500

DASH $235.90

Ethereum $457.70

Litecoin $81.510

33

Greenback goes down on soft American wages data

09.07.2018

On Monday, the evergreen buck struggled near 3-1/2-week minimums versus its counterparts after American jobs data disclosed slower-than-anticipated wage surge, while the UK currency rebounded as a major member of Britain’s cabinet dared to resign because of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit initiative.

Versus a basket of six crucial currencies, the USD index slumped by 0.15% hitting 93.877.

On Friday, it had dived almost by 0.5% percent reaching 93.921, which is its lowest value since June 14, after closely-watched American wages indicators turned out to be disappointing for the market.

The data demonstrated that in June average American hourly earnings edged up by 0.2% having soared by 0.3% in May. It actually pointed to moderate inflation pressures, which confounded hopes that the Fed would increase interest rates up to four times this year.

In June, nonfarm payrolls rallied by a stronger-than-anticipated 213,000, although it had minor impact on currencies.

British wages didn’t soar so substantially. Accordingly, there will not be a fast pickup in the tempo of long-term interest rate lifts, as some financial analysts pointed out.

In addition to this, on Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield headed south to its lowest value for six weeks. Therefore, the spread between the two- and 10-year profits turned out to be at its flattest value for 11 years.

The evergreen buck stood still sticking with 110.42 yen having lost 0.2% on Friday.

The common currency rallied by 0.2% hitting $1.1765. On Friday, the euro had ascended by 0.45% reaching $1.1768, which is its strongest value since mid-June.

The UK currency erased earlier revenues and it stood still at $1.3300.

The British pound had ascended to $1.3328 earlier in the trading session, thus showcasing its highest value since June 14, before rebounded on news that British Brexit Secretary David Davis had retired, thus giving a powerful blow to Theresa May.

34

Big day for the Canadian dollar

10.07.2018

Every meeting of the central bank is vital for the currency. Central banks can give comments that will set the currency trend until the next meeting, i.e. for the next month. The Bank of Canada is no exception.

Its meeting will take place on July 11. The interest rate and the central bank’s statement will be released at 17:00 MT time. The BOC Governor will hold a press conference at 18:15 MT time.

This meeting will be very important because the Bank of Canada will have to decide whether to raise interest rates for the second time this year. On the one hand, the BOC prepared the market for a rate hike at its last meeting in June. On the other hand, since then Canadian economic indicators deteriorated. As a result, it will be a real dilemma for the central bank. In such situation of uncertainty, there’s a great potential for surprise and, consequently, for big swings in the CAD exchange rate.

• If the BOC raises the interest rate, the CAD will rise.

• If the BOC leaves the interest rate, the CAD will go down.

794×310

35

American producer prices gain on services and cars

11.07.2018

In June, American producer prices went up more than supposed in the face of jumps in the cost of cars, services, thus provoking the greatest annual soar for 6-1/2 years.

The Labor Department told on Wednesday that its producer price index for final demand added by 0.3% in June, underpinned by jumps in gasoline prices. Furthermore, in May, the PPI ascended by 0.5%. For the twelve months through June, the PPI managed to soar by about 3.4%, which is the greatest revenue since November 2011. In May, producer prices surged by 3.1% year-on-year.

Financial analysts surveyed by Reuters had predicted the PPI soaring 0.2% in June and tacking on 3.2% year-on-year.

A major gauge of producer price pressures, without energy, trade services and food, ascended by 0.3% the previous month. In May, the core PPI rallied by 0.1%.

The core PPI went up by 2.7% for the 12 months through June having soared 2.6% in May.

Inflation is slowly soaring due to the fact that a labor market is close to its complete employment.

In May, the personal consumption expenditures price index without energy, and food that is the Fed’s primary inflation indicator met the major bank’s 2% goal for the first time for six years.

In June, the cost of services inched up by 0.4% having soared by 0.3% in May. A 21.8% ascend in the index for fuels as well as lubricants retailing amounted to nearly 40% of the soar in the cost of services in June.

As for the cost of healthcare services, it rallied by 0.2% because a 1% leap in prices for hospital outpatient care compensated minor dives in the cost of doctor visits as well as hospital inpatient care. In May, healthcare prices ascended by 0.1%.