Forex today: Daily analysis

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
184

European equities rally as earnings surge expectations stabilize

http://bit.ly/2GDhS0u

13:12 13.02.2019

On Wednesday, European equities went up because upbeat mood about Washington and Beijing trade negotiations backed global markets, while data revealed that earnings surge estimates for the European Union are stabilizing after abrupt downward revisions.

The STOXX 600 rallied by about 0.3%, while Germany’s DAX leapt by up to 0.2%.

Asian stocks and Wall Street also soared because expectations strengthened that China and America will come to a compromise and dodge another round of American levies on imports from China expected to kick in by March 1.

Madrid’s IBEX headed south by 0.1% in the face of reports that Spain’s minority Socialist cabinet could announce an early general election on the condition it loses a budget vote after its refusal to have Catalan self-determination negotiated.

In the face of all the intricacies of Brexit, London’s FTSE outperformed a bit, heading north by 0.4% after data revealed that UK inflation declined to a two-year minimum in January.

Dutch bank ABN Amro, affected by loan impairments, headed south by 6.3% with fourth-quarter net gain below analysts’s estimate.

Dutch blue chip counterpart Heineken was differently welcomed by the market, tacking on by up to 4.3% and set for its best performance since 2015 on better-than-anticipated outcomes.

Akzo Nobel, the paint maker in the Netherlands ascended by 3.9% having marginally surpassed expectations.

The euro zone’s number one asset manager, Amundi was also appreciated by market participants, adding 4.3% having confirmed its profit objectives for 2020, notwithstanding negative market conditions in the fourth quarter.

Among other companies whose outcomes stood out in morning trade, we should mention Ingenico that gained 7.2%, online gambling company Kindred Group that ascended by 5.8% as well as Swedish Match with its 7.5% leap - the top performer of the STOXX 600.

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Market conditions I: Trends http://bit.ly/2N4OXUk

The market isn’t always the same. In order to choose the best trading strategy, you need to understand the market’s condition. Always start your technical analysis by identifying the market’s condition.
There are two types of market conditions: trend and range. Let’s study this time, the first one.

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186

I like how simply you have laid this out!

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187

so, what exactly happens with the current forex?

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188

Wall Street jumps on US-China trade upbeat mood

http://bit.ly/2GK28Jj

15.02.2019

On Friday, Wall Street’s key indexes were braced for reporting their biggest weekly profits for a month because traders were quite optimistic about the everlasting trade negotiations to tackle a bruising tariff clash between China and America.

Donald Trump told that negotiations with China are going well and his country is very close to making a good deal with the Asian partner. Next week, talks between the world’s two leading economies will resume in the USA.

Expectations for a trade pact ahead of a March 1 deadline has assisted the trade-sensitive industrials to earn about 17% this year, thus making it the best S&P sector in terms of performance.

The group went up by 1.13% backed by bellwethers Boeing Co as well as Caterpillar Inc.

The markets generally neglected US leader declaring a national emergency in an attempt to finance his announced wall at the US-Mexico border without congressional approval.

Notwithstanding the threat of a national emergency, all 11 key S&P sectors managed to ascend, with financials soaring by 1.89%, becoming the top-notch performer.

The banking sector ascended by 2.62% backed by key American lenders. As a matter of fact, Wells Fargo, Bank of America Corp, and JPMorgan Chase & Co tacked on 1.7%-3% right after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway ramped up its stake in the companies.

ET the Dow Jones Industrial Average headed north by 1.36% being worth 25,785.36. As for the S&P 500, it jumped by 0.82% hitting 2,768.25, while the Nasdaq Composite rallied by 0.38% reaching 7,455.49.

The S&P jumped over 10%, powered by a dovish Federal Reserve, progress on trade as well as a mostly positive fourth-quarter earnings reports.

Nvidia Corp headed north by 2.5%, while Newell Brands Inc lost 20.4%.

189

5 important things this week will bring us!

More at: News on February 18-22

18.02.2019

FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wed, 21:00 MT (19:00 GMT) time) – The Federal Reserve announced the “patient” way of its monetary policy and decided to leave its interest rates unchanged during the last meeting in January. The minutes from that meeting will shed more light on the current economic outlook by the Fed. If it contains any supportive data for the greenback, the American currency will go up.

Australian jobs data (Thu, 2:30 MT (00:30 GMT) time) – the level of employment change is expected to advance by 15.2 thousand jobs. At the same time, the level of the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at the same level of 5%. If employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the AUD will go up.

US headline and core durable goods orders (Thu, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time) - According to analysts, the level of durable goods orders will increase by 0.8%, while its core level will rise by 0.2%. The higher-than-expected figures will push the USD higher.

Canadian retail sales and core retail sales (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time) - The headline indicator will likely remain at the same level. As for core retail sales, analysts expect it to decline by 0.5%. If the actual releases are higher, it will help the Canadian dollar to rise.

Speech by the ECB president Mario Draghi (Fri, 17:30 MT (15:30 GMT) time) – the ECB president will speak as he accepts an honorary degree from the University of Bologna. His comments or answers to the questions may provide an opportunity to trade the euro.

Hot topics:

Theresa May plans to dispatch her ministers across Europe during this week in an attempt to save her Brexit agreement and ask the EU members to make concessions so that the party can vote for a re-written deal. She still has 9 days left before the vote in the Parliament on February 27. If her attempts are unsuccessful by that date, the Parliament will take over the process.

Reportedly, the US and China have made great progress in trade negotiations last week. Next round of the talks will continue in Washington. Hopefully, they provide us with more clues on the conditions of the deal.

Trump released declaration of a national emergency along the U.S.-Mexico border in an attempt to get funds for building a wall along the US-Mexico border. This news affected the USD negatively.

190

How market sentiment may affect your trading decisions.

When you read or watch the analysis, you often face with the following statement: “it is recommended to trade on the market sentiment.” Are you surprised that the market has its actual feelings? Of course, it does! As the market is literally a crowd of different players, most of which are actual human beings, it has a really strong psychological basis. Financial markets are driven by emotions, which are used by smart traders to earn money. In this article, we are going to help you to understand the types of market sentiment and its measurements.

191

Evergreen buck goes down ahead of Fed minutes

More at: Evergreen buck goes down ahead of Fed minutes

20.02.2019

On Wednesday, the evergreen buck slumped versus the common currency and the UK pound because a dive in American Treasury gains diminished its attractiveness in the face of hopes for dovish news on interest rates from the major US bank.

Bond gains were pressured by economic data, which have clung to the weak side for the last time. For the last month the 10-year benchmark Treasury yield has gone down from 2.80% to 2.64% against the backdrop of uncertainty over how far the major US financial institution can afford tightening monetary policy.

Such uncertainty definitely makes Wednesday special, as traders are waiting for the publication of the minutes from the recent Fed gathering, where the major American financial institution opted for a more neutral as well as data-dependent stance, giving up its previous guidance about the probability of further interest rate lifts.

Investors are going to look for clues about how fast and how far the major US bank is about to have its balance sheet reduced. The Cleveland Fed President, Loretta Mester told that she appreciated the idea of ending the balance sheet wind-down in 2019 because such an outcome could potentially leave a considerable amount of crisis-era liquidity in the system, neutralizing any leap in market interest rates. Moreover, she added that official interest rates would most probably ascend rather than tumble.

Estimating the purchasing potential of the greenback versus a number of its main peers the USD index hit 96.333, slumping by 0.5% from its overnight maximum. The common currency was close to a one-week maximum at $1.1351 because German producer price inflation data for January turned out to be higher than anticipated.

Overnight the Chinese Yuan managed to ascend by about 0.5% versus the evergreen buck hitting 6.7227.

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Bollinger bands
Bollinger bands represent another useful tool for trend determination. It’s no brainer that if prices decide to trend, they don’t move in a straight line, but deviate to the sides. Bollinger bands are designed to keep track the price’s deviation from the 20-period MA.

We are going to learn!

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193

Dow inches up

http://bit.ly/2XlBtZi

22.02.2019

On Friday, the Dow managed to conclude the trading session up on upbeat mood after American leader told that a trade agreement with China is real.

As a matter of fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared by 0.70%. As for the S&P 500, it surged by about 0.62%. The Nasdaq Composite rallied by 0.91%. Eventually, the Dow concluded up for an eighth week in a row.

In a sign that China and America were still committed to coping with their differences on trade, China’s Prime Minister extended his visit to America to proceed with negotiations with American rivals.

Tech equities rallied due to profits in Intel and Intuit.

As a matter of fact, Intuit managed to tack on by 6.8% having reported fiscal second-quarter outcomes on Thursday. They topped forecasts made by Investing.com.

As for Intel, it managed to go up by 2.1% following a positive assessment from Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley had Intel’s stocks upgrade from equal-weight to overweight and also ramped up its price objective from $55 to $64 on hopes that the chip producer is going to be one of the key winners when spending on cloud computing goes up.

Kraft Heinz went down by up to 27.5% having revealed on Thursday that the SEC had come up with a probe into the company’s accounting practices. Moreover, the company also posted a quarterly loss of $15.4 billion.

Energy equities concluded the trading day up because American crude prices surged on expectations that a US-China trade pact would back global economic surge, thus powering oil demand.

Western Digital, DISH Network, and Intuit turned out to be amount the top-notch S&P 500 gainers for the trading session.

194

5 important things this week will bring us!

25.02.2019

British Inflation report hearings (Tue, 12:00 MT (10:00 GMT)) – the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify on the current economic outlook and inflation. The hawkish hints may be supportive for the British pound.

Testimony by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell (Tue, 17:00 MT (15:00 GMT)) – The Fed Chair will testify on the Semiannual monetary policy report. His comments and answers during the q&a may bring volatility to the USD.

Canadian CPI m/m (Wed, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – According to forecasts, the consumer inflation will advance by 0.2%. If the actual figures are higher, the Canadian dollar will rise.

US Advance GDP q/q (Thu, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – Analysts expect the indicator to reach 2.6%. Higher-than-expected data will boost the greenback

Speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell (3:15 MT (1:15 GMT)) – the Fed Chair plans to make a speech on the topic “Recent Economic Developments and Longer-Term Challenges”. Let’s wait and find out how his comments will affect the USD.

Hot topics:

Theresa May postponed the Brexit vote scheduled for this week again. Now the next meaningful vote is set on March 12. That’s just two weeks before the final deadline on March 29. Reportedly, the government plans to delay Brexit for two weeks, if the British Prime Minister Theresa May cannot secure a deal by the meaningful vote. As for the EU side, the EU authorities suggest extending Brexit until 2021.

During the early Asian trading session, US President Donald Trump announced his plans to postpone tariff hikes on China. It resulted in a great risk-on sentiment. The next focus for the trade truce now is on the meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Jinping during the 3rd or the 4th week of March.

195

Keeping trades over the weekend: your chance or failure?

Have you ever thought whether to keep a trade open over the weekend? If yes, was a decision like this always profitable for you? If not, maybe you should put off doubts and fears and try it? We have gathered the information you should know about keeping trades over the weekend.

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196

European stock markets are impacted by India-Pakistan clash

27.02.2019

On Wednesday, European stock markets started lower after fresh hostilities showed up between Pakistan and India, making Asian assets dive and also pushing traders into safe havens, including the Japanese yen.

The STOXX 600 lost 0.5%. As for the key regional indexes, all of them found themselves in the red. American stock futures for the S&P 500 lost 0.1%.

Previously, Pakistan told it had delivered air strikes in Indian-controlled Kashmir and also put down two Indian jets.

Pakistan and Indian currencies and bonds headed south, while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan declined by 0.15% because the threat of conflict between the nuclear-armed countries increased.

Besides this, financial markets were monitoring the US-North Korean summit, expected to burst out in Hanoi on Wednesday. American leader is going to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, with America urging the isolated country have its nuclear weapons program dismantled.

The heightened geopolitical risks helped a number of assets considered safer than shares. For instance, one of them is the Japanese yen that soared versus the evergreen buck.

The evergreen buck kept to a three-week minimum after on Tuesday Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeated that the major US bank had shifted to a more patient stance as for changes to interest rates.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the UK currency kept soaring after Prime Minister Theresa May gave British lawmakers a chance to vote on postponing Brexit. The UK pound was worth $1.3274, having ascended to $1.3288 on Tuesday, which is its highest outcome for five months.

Crude prices went up following a report that American crude inventories had slipped and producer club OPEC reportedly stuck with its supply cuts notwithstanding pressure from Donald Trump.

As for gold, it tumbled by 0.17% hitting $1,326.24.

197

Canadian GDP growth may push the CAD up

28.02.2019

The level of monthly GDP for Canada is expected on March 1, at 15:30 MT time.

The level of GDP growth is the broadest measure of economic activity, which indicates economic health. Last time analysts forecast GDP growth to increase by 0.1%. The actual level came out in line with the analysts’ expectations. If this time the release is higher than the forecast, the CAD will be supported.

• If GDP growth is higher than expected, the CAD will rise;

• If GDP growth is lower than expected, the CAD will fall.

198

S&P concludes session above 2,800

01.03.2019

On Friday, the S&P 500 boasted solid gains, closing above a major level and neglecting data that indicated decelerating American economic as well as global surge as expectations of a US-China trade agreement kept risk appetite alive.

Eventually, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared by nearly 0.43%. As for the S&P 500, it managed to gain by approximately 0.69%, concluding above 2,800 for the first time since November 8. Besides this, the Nasdaq Composite rallied by 0.83%.

The American economy kept demonstrating signs of deceleration.

As a matter of fact, in December, consumer spending in the United States, accounting for more than two-thirds of the country’s economic activity, decreased by 0.5%. As for February’s ISM manufacturing data, it confounded hopes for 55.5.

The dive in personal spending actually represented the most impressive slump since 2009.

The consumer consumption demonstrating considerable worries going into year-end turns out to be more than sufficient to keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines for the time being.

The dismal data arose after the Chinese economy demonstrated a dive in factory activity for the third consecutive month. However, the tempo of the deceleration had speeded down, backing hopes a bottom was already forming.

Furthermore, sentiment on Wall Street was also backed by signs that Chinese and American negotiators are very close to coming to a compromise.

Larry Kudlow told that the agreements achieved the previous week show considerable progress on forced technology transfer, IP theft as well as cyber interference.

In addition to trade, the financial markets were also driven by an ascend in energy shares notwithstanding a dive in crude prices on signs of weakness in the Chinese economy.

199

5 important things this week will bring us!

Read at: New on March 4-8

04.03.2019

RBA rate statement (Tue, 5:30 MT (3:30 GMT) time) – The RBA Governor Philip Lowe is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. However, the comments by him and the members of the Australian central bank may provide volatility to the Australian dollar.

Australian GDP q/q (Wed, 2:30 MT (00:30 GMT) time) – According to analysts, the level of GDP growth for Australia will increase by 0.5%. Higher-than-expected figures will boost the Australian currency.

BOC rate statement (Wed, 17:00 MT (15:00 GMT) time) – We anticipate no changes to the current level of interest rate (1.75%). The bank of Canada governor may throw some hints on the possible changes to the current monetary policy. If the BOC is hawkish, the Canadian dollar will rise.

ECB rate statement and press conference (Thu, 14:45 and 15:30 MT (12:45 and 13:30 GMT) time) – Here we also do not expect changes to the current interest rate, but the ECB president Mario Draghi may comment on the further changes to the current monetary policy. If the European central bank is more confident in the current conditions, the euro will rise.

US Non-farm employment change (NFP) (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time) – Analysts forecast the level of NFP to increase by 185 thousand jobs. At the same time, the level of average hourly earnings is forecast to increase by 0.3% and the level of unemployment change is expected to decline to 3.9%. Higher figures for NFP and average hourly earnings and lower figures for unemployment rate will boost the USD.

Hot topics:

Pro-Brexiters in the Conservative party of Great Britain suggested several conditions for supporting Theresa May’s plan at the Parliament.

Reportedly, China and the US are in the final stage of getting a trade deal. China offers to lower tariffs on American products and the US considers to remove sanctions against Chinese products.

During the weekend Trump said that strong USD and rate hikes were hurting the economy.

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Currency cross pairs: how to trade them?

Do you know that opportunities to earn money are not limited by trading your favorite EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY? Furthermore, a currency pair may be formed without the US dollar? In this article, we are going to introduce you to the so-called ““currency cross pair””. You will find out the special features of these pairs and learn how to trade them and to avoid mistakes. This information is not investment advice.

Learn with all details
http://bit.ly/2C64r6t

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201

China’s exports demonstrate the biggest dive for two years

http://bit.ly/2SLw3TJ

06.03.2019

In February, China’s exports went down following a shocking rebound in January. As for imports, they declined for a third month in a row, backing anxiety over whether China and America can tackle deep differences over trade.

In February, China’s exports are anticipated to have slumped by 4.8% from 2018 after January’s 9.1% leap.

Such a tumble would be the greatest since December 2016. It drops a hint at a further weakening in global demand.

In February, imports are anticipated to have gone down by 1.4% from 2018 in contrast with January’s 1.5% dip.

Firmer-than-anticipated imports could enable some China watchers to ascertain that the Chinese economy is demonstrating signs of bottoming out responding to a pack of stimulus measures last year.

However, most experts usually caution that China’s data early in 2018 can be extremely distorted by the timing of the Lunar New Year holidays because at that time some businesses speed up their shipments or scale back output prior to shutting for a extended break.

As follows from factory surveys, imports and exports are going to remain dismal in the nearer future, with February’s official indicator indicating that export orders tumbled to their weakest value since the global financial downtime.

In February, China’s total trade surplus tumbled steeply to $26.38 billion from $39.16 billion in January.

In response to soaring global and domestic pressure, this week the Chinese cabinet uncovered a 2019 economic surge objective of 6.0%-6.5%, down from an actual 6.6% last year, which appears to be the slowest tempo for almost 30 years.

On Tuesday, Premier Li Keqiang told parliament that China is going to shore up the Chinese economy through billions of dollars in extra tax cuts as well as infrastructure spending. What’s more, the Chinese government will decrease real interest rates.

202

Evergreen buck rallies to three-month maximums

More at: Evergreen buck rallies to three-month maximums

07.03.2019

On Thursday, the evergreen buck jumped to three-month peaks versus its counterparts against the backdrop of a dive in the common currency after the ECB came up with the alarm on euro-area surge and pushed back its hopes for a rate lift.

Gauging the greenback’s purchasing potential versus its major rivals the USD index shot up by 0.68% being worth 97.45.

The currency pair EUR/USD went down by 0.77% showing $1.1217 after the ECB pushed back its hopes for a rate lift to the end of 2019, diminished its surge objective for this year from 1.7% to 1.1% and also detailed fresh stimulus measures.

Mario Draghi, ECB governor came up with a dismal assessment of the euro zone economy, telling that a sizeable moderation in surge would proceed in 2019.

In addition to this, GBP/USD went down by 0.61% ending up with $1.3089 against the backdrop of worries that the Brexit deadlock will resume after the European bloc neglected Britain’s latest proposals on the Irish backstop.

In Brussels, British Attorney General Geoffrey Cox came up with the proposals, but they were neglected. The European bloc has provided Cox with time until Friday to have the revised proposals submitted, referring to remarks from European diplomats.

However, many experts have told that the March 29 Brexit deadline will be most probably postponed due to the fact Prime Minister Theresa May won’t win concessions from the European bloc that British lawmakers demand to vote in favor of her withdrawal agreement on March 12.

In addition to this, the currency pair USD/JPY headed south by about 0.19% concluding the trading session at Y111.54. As for USD/CAD, it soared by 0.11% showing C$1.3455.

203

American stocks keep diving

08.03.2019

On Friday, American shares kept diving for the fifth day after dismal British jobs data in February contributed to fears over decelerating global surge, which was driven by a steep dive in China’s exports as well as a prolonged deceleration in the eurozone.

Meanwhile, last month, the American economy generated no more than 20,000 in contrast with hopes that nonfarm payrolls would surge by 180,000. The given data managed to overshadow unemployment rate that dived back below 4% along with the best annual wage surge since 2009.

A common gauge of the health of the American economy, the Dow Jones Transports index headed south by 1.60%, which is its steepest outcome for the last 11 losing marathons.

Fears about global surge escalated after exports in China, the world’s number two economy, demonstrated the most impressive dive for three years last month that generated rumors of a trade meltdown.

It shows up on the heels of the ECB downgrading surge estimates and disclosing another round of stimulus.

The technology sector headed south by 0.88% and appeared to be the greatest drag on the S&P 500. As for Facebook, Apple, Netflix, and Amazon, they sank 0.7%-2.5%.

ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average headed south by 0.75% demonstrating 25,281.34. As for the S&P 500, it slipped by 0.93% hitting 2,723.25. The Nasdaq Composite decreased by approximately 0.90% ending up with 7,354.61.

The energy sector went down by about 2.44% because crude prices went down by 2%.

Aside from that, ExxonMobil inched down by 2%, while Chevron Corp sank by 1%.

In addition to this, Costco Wholesale Corp rallied by 4.56%, which is the most impressive outcome on the S&P.