Forex today: Daily analysis

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
204

5 important things this week will bring us!

11.03.2019

US retail sales and core retail sales (Mon, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – According to analysts, the level of retail sales will remain the same. At the same time, its core level (excluding automobiles) is forecast to advance by 0.4%. Higher-than-expected figures will support the USD.

British GDP and manufacturing production (Tue, 11:30 MT (9:30 GMT) time) – Both of the indicators are anticipated to rise by 0.2%. If the actual levels of indicators are higher, the British pound will get positive momentum.

US CPI and core CPI (Tue, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – Here, we also anticipate the advance of 0.2% for both headline and core indicators. The greater levels will be appreciated by the USD bulls.

US core durable goods orders and PPI (Wed, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – The level of core durable goods orders is going to rise by 0.1%, according to forecasts. The forecast for the producer price index is also positive and expected to increase by 0.2%. Let’s see if the actual data will make the USD rise.

BOJ monetary policy statement (Fri, tentative) – The most dovish central bank will keep its interest rate unchanged at -0.10%. Moreover, the BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda mentioned the further easing of its monetary policy if it’s needed. Any unexpected hawkish hints will support the JPY.

Hot topics:

It’s all about Brexit: the British Prime Minister Theresa May is going to face another vote tomorrow at the Parliament. The hopes of backing the current Brexit deal on time are fading, as Theresa May rejected the latest offer from the European Union during this weekend. The forecasts for tomorrow’s vote are not optimistic. According to the latest news, the British prime minister plans to change tomorrow’s vote from meaningful to the provisional. This will provide her an opportunity to propose further changes to the deal. According to the current scenario, if the British PM faces the defeat tomorrow, next day, on March 13, the British lawmakers will vote on a no-deal. If that vote is also rejected, the Parliament will vote on the extension of Brexit deadline on Thursday. Any uncertainties will be hurtful for the GBP during these days. On the other hand, positive news or the Brexit delay will push the GBP up.

The release of Chinese retail sales and industrial production data on Thursday may determine the market sentiment. Latest releases for China raised concerns on the possible slowdown of the second economy in the world. If the data is disappointing, it will result in risk-aversion.

On Friday, lawmakers will vote on a foreign investment law, which includes measures to protect the intellectual property of foreign companies in an effort to address the US concerns in the trade deal with China.

205

Gold ascends on Brexit jitters

12.03.2019

On Tuesday, gold rallied because uncertainty over the latest developments in Britain’s departure from the EU backed safe haven demand and traders looked ahead for American inflation data to underpin the Fed’s pledge to remain on hold.

On the Comex exchange, April delivery gold futures went up by 0.41% concluding the trading session at $1,296.35 a troy ounce.

Many experts are assured that Theresa May will fail to achieve the votes required to underpin her withdrawal pact.

If UK lawmakers reject May’s agreement, she has pledged a vote on Wednesday on whether to depart from the EU without a deal and, if they vote down it, then there will be a vote for a limited delay to Brexit.

On Tuesday, the uncertainty stimulated demand for the yellow metal even as volatility reigned in the Forex market.

As markets closely watch developments, traders will wait for American inflation data expected to show up at 8:30 AM ET.

Market experts actually expect American consumer prices to match February’s surge, underlining the case for the US major financial institution to stick with its current wait-and-see stance.

Financial markets were still skeptical that the Federal Reserve could proceed with its rate lift in 2019, especially after the employment report revealed poor job creation in February. By the way, Fed fund futures exclude such a move and place the likelihood at above 10% that the next move would be a cut.

Apparently, the pause in policy tightening is beneficial for the yellow metal because it decreases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

In addition to this, silver futures managed to rally by about 0.97% hitting $15.4223 a troy ounce.

Palladium surged by 1.28% showing $1,500.90.

As for copper, this metal inched up by up to 1.10% ending up with $2.933 a pound.

206

Chart patterns

Have you ever felt like the universe is trying to communicate with you by sending various warning signs? Sometimes these signs from the unknown sources help you escape serious troubles or prevent irreparable damage to your belongings. Not every person has a gift to decode the cryptic messages the universe is sending him.

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207

A chance to trade the Japanese currency

Read at: Where will the JPY go?

14.03.2019

The Bank of Japan will make its monetary policy statement and announce the interest rate on March 15. The bank won’t change its interest rate, but the comments by the bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda may shake the JPY. During the previous month, the BOJ governor threw hints on further monetary policy easing. This dovish outlook made the JPY suffer. Let’s see where the central bank will drive its currency.

• If the BOJ is hawkish, the JPY will move up;

• If the BOJ is dovish, the JPY will move down.

208

Looks like there will be a downturn based on the divergence and the upper trend line.

USDJPY March17
USDJPY March17734×537 72.1 KB

1 Like
209

Weekly Cryptonews

15.03.2019

Aaron Olmos, Venezuela’s most outspoken economist: “We are in a complicated situation because ‘good money’ – dollars or cryptocurrency – is available, but it is scarce because people tend to keep it, not spend it. On the other hand our ‘bad money,’ the Bolivar, it’s the one used by law.”

Let’s look at how the oldest cryptocurrency has been performing this week. Bitcoin continues trading sideways between the $3,920 and $4,013 levels. Strong bullish pressure will help it to break the current resistance at $4,013 and move towards the next resistance at $4,058. Otherwise, if bears come into play, the digital asset will plunge below the support at $3,920. The next support for it lies at $3,808. If we look at indicators, ADX shows the strength of bears and parabolic SAR demonstrates the downward movement for Bitcoin.

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Important updates:

Tether is not backed by US dollars anymore. The information on its official site says that stablecoin is backed by fiat currencies, cash equivalents, and other assets.

New announces:

Thai stock exchange plans to launch the platform for trading digital assets next year.

London stock exchange listed blockchain ETF by Invesco investment company.

Swiss stock exchange SIX Swiss plans to open trading of the ETP product connected to Ripple.

NASDAQ plans to launch the first full-stack cryptocurrency ecosystem in the first half of 2019.

A bill has been proposed in the state of Texas that would require a person receiving cryptocurrencies as payment to first “verify the identity of the person sending payment.”

Research:

70% of the crypto owners almost never used cryptocurrencies for payments in 2018.

If Facebook launches its stablecoin, the social network will earn from $3 to $19 billion.

Current prices (last update 14:42 MT time)

Bitcoin $4,021

DASH $93.32

Ethereum $138.02

Litecoin: $59.04

210

5 important things this week will bring us!

18.03.2019

British CPI y/y (Wed, 11:30 MT (9:30 GMT)) – The level of consumer inflation for Great Britain is expected to remain at the same level. If the actual figures are higher, the GBP will rise.

FOMC statement and Federal funds rate (Wed, 20:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time) – the rate hike is not expected, but the Fed Chair Jerome Powell may provide some comments, which will affect the volatility of the USD.

Australian jobs data (Thu, 2:30 MT (0:30 GMT)) – The level of employment change is anticipated to advance by 15.2 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at the same level. Higher-than-expected employment change and the lower-than-expected unemployment rate will move the AUD up.

BOE monetary policy summary and official rate (Thu, 14:00 MT (12:00 GMT) time) – The Bank of England will keep its interest rate at 0.75%. The BOE governor Mark Carney may make some supportive comments for the GBP amid the Brexit uncertainties. Let’s see if the BOE will move the GBP even higher.

Canadian CPI and core retail sales m/m (Fri, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT) –If the actual figures are higher, than the forecasts by analysts, the CAD will rise.

Hot topics:

This week we need to be ready for the fresh round of the Brexit news. The British Prime Minister Theresa May will have another Brexit vote at the Parliament. If the Parliament approves the deal this time, Theresa May will go to the European Summit in Brussels to request a short extension to Brexit until June 30. If the Parliament rejects the plan by the British Prime Minister this time, Theresa May will go to Brussels and ask for a much longer extension of the Brexit process. If the requests are rejected by the EU leaders during the European Summit on Thursday, the UK will leave the EU without a deal.

China’s commerce minister says the foreign trade situation becomes more uncertain for the country.

Reportedly, the Saudi oil minister says a possible decision to extend output cuts will be made in June.

211

Will the Fed surprise the market?

http://bit.ly/2Hu1PmX

19.03.2019

The Federal open market committee (FOMC) will make its monetary policy statement and announce the interest rate on March 20, 20:00 MT time. The rate hike will not happen this time, but the Federal Reserve will definitely shake the market with the hawkish comments. During the previous meeting, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the financial regulator would continue its patient approach in conducting the monetary policy. He also pointed out that the current level of the interest rate was appropriate for the US economy now. His dovish comments weakened the USD. Let’s see where the Fed is heading this time.

• If the FOMC is hawkish, the USD will go up;

• If the FOMC is dovish, the USD will go down.

212

Greenback rallies on trade war jitters

20.03.2019

On Wednesday, the evergreen buck went up, attracting safe-haven bids following reports of further tension in US-China trade talks, although its profits were minor, with caution anticipated from the major US bank at its policy gathering later in the day.

Volatility in the Forex market has receded because of a dovish shift by key financial institutions, including the Fed.

The adverse impact on the evergreen buck from the pause in the major US bank’s interest-rate-lifting cycle has been somewhat affected by a cautious ECB having to deal with a struggling euro zone economy.

The Federal Reserve is generally expected to remain its interest rate on hold.

Bets on an interest rate cut have tacked on following Friday’s weaker-than-anticipated manufacturing data.

Notwithstanding the downbeat outlook, on Wednesday, the evergreen buck managed to rally versus the Australian dollar as well as Japan’s yen and the Canadian dollar.

As a matter of fact, the Australian dollar went down by 0.25% concluding the trading session at $0.7070.

Versus a basket of major counterparts, the evergreen buck rallied by 0.1% coming up with an outcome of 96.454 having demonstrated its lowest outcome since March 1 - 96.291.

The vast majority of currencies are still within well-trodden ranges before the Fed verdict.

Some experts told that the evergreen buck might not dive a lot on the Fed gathering because traders have already priced in the Fed scaling back its interest rate outlook.

On Wednesday, the common currency slumped a bit versus the evergreen buck demonstrating a reading of $1.1344.

As for the UK pound, it headed south by about 0.3% showing $1.3220 on fears that Theresa May’s request to postpone Brexit might fail.

213

The volatility for the CAD is expected

21.03.2019

Canada will release the level of core retail sales and CPI on March 22, at 14:30 MT time. CPI represents the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. It’s a very important indicator of inflation due to its early release and broad scope. CPI will be released at the same time with the level of core retail sales. Core retail sales show the change in the total value of sales, excluding automobiles. Together, they may provide great volatility to the loonie. Last time, CPI increased by 0.1% (lower than the forecasts), while core retail sales remained at the same level. Will the indicators outperform the forecasts this time?

• If the actual levels of indicators are higher, the CAD will go up;

• If the actual levels of indicators are lower, the CAD will go down.

214

Scaling in and out of positions

Imagine, you opened your position, placed stop loss and take profit. What would be your next steps? Well, you may just sit and wait for further market moves. On the other hand, professional traders try to be more flexible while making their trading decisions by scaling in and out opened positions. If you want to trade more like a pro, then this article is for you! Let’s find out what is scaling and how you need to apply it correctly to manage your risks.

Learn with all details
What is scaling

215

5 important things this week will bring us!

25.03.2019

The dovish Fed, the slowdown in Europe and Brexit were among the things that moved the market last week. Let’s look at this week’s opportunities.

Rate statement by the Reserve bank of New Zealand (Wed, 03:00 MT (01:00 GMT)) – The rate hike is not expected, but the RBNZ governor Adrian Orr may throw some hints on the possible changes to the central bank’s monetary policy in future.

Speech by the ECB president Mario Draghi (Wed, 10:00 MT (8:00 GMT)) – The European Central bank’s president Mario Draghi will make his speech at the ECB and Its Watchers conference in Frankfurt. We may expect some supportive comments for the EUR.

Canadian trade balance (Wed, 14:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the trade deficit of Canada will likely show less decline, than in the previous month. If the actual figures are greater, the CAD will rise.

US final GDP q/q (Thu, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – Analysts expect the American GDP growth to reach 2.4%. If the actual number is higher, the USD will get positive momentum.

Canadian GDP m/m (Fri, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – Last time the Canadian GDP growth declined by 0.1%. The projections for this week’s release will be published later. Higher-than-expected actual figures will boost the CAD.

Hot topics:

The Brexit tensions continue this week. After the huge protests in the UK during the weekend, the British prime minister started to lose the support amid the members of her own Cabinet. Today, the British lawmakers will vote on whether to come up with alternatives to the Brexit deal. The votes are expected to start at 00:00 MT time. If this motion is done successfully, lawmakers will take part in a series of indicative votes on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The trade talks between the US and China will resume this week in Beijing on March 28-29. A breakthrough in the negotiations will bring support to the risk-weighted assets. Up to now, the sides have been optimistic on reaching a deal soon.

Pay attention to the Boao forum which starts this Tuesday in China. The Chinese officials including Central Bank Governor Yi Gang and Finance Minister Liu Kun are going to speak at the conference. Their comments may affect the risk sentiment in the markets.

Turkey will hold its local elections on March 31. After the sudden plunge of the Turkish lira on Friday, the officials started investigations into JPMorgan Chase & Co. and other banks. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that bankers, which responsible for speculating against the currency would be punished.

216

Is there any hope for the kiwi?

Check it out: Will the RBNZ change its policy?

26.03.2019

The Reserve bank of New Zealand will make its rate statement and publish its official interest rate on March 27, at 3:00 MT time. The bank is not going to make any changes to its interest rate, but we need to pay attention to the tone of the statement. During the February’s meeting, the RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said that the current interest rate would be kept at the current level through 2019 and 2020. Despite this dovish statement, he sounded optimistic about the economic outlook. As a result, the kiwi was boosted. Will it happen this time?

• If the RBNZ is positive, the NZD will rise.

• If the RBNZ is negative, the NZD will fall.

217

Asian stocks stand still as traders weigh American recession risk

27.03.2019

On Wednesday, Asian stocks were generally intact because traders tried to come to terms with a steep shift in American bond markets as well as the implications for the world’s number one economy.

London’s FTSE Frankfurt’s DAX and France’s CAC are expected to head north 0.2%- 0.4% when they start.

MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific stocks surged by 0.1%, Japan’s Nikkei average headed south by 0.2%.

As for Chinese stocks, they managed to outperform their Asian rivals on hopes that the Chinese cabinet would come up with more measures to back surge after data revealed industrial profits dived the most since late 2011.

The Chinese benchmark Shanghai Composite rallied by 0.5%, while the blue-chip CSI 300 tacked on by 0.8%. Moreover, the Hang Seng inched up by 0.6% in Hong Kong.

On Tuesday, Wall Street’s key indexes demonstrated firm revenue, although concluded below their session maximums reacting to the underlying fears about the economic outlook.

Aside from that, the S&P 500 tacked on by 0.72%, while the Nasdaq Composite managed to inch up by 0.71%.

The 10-year U.S. Treasuries gain went up to 2.432% from Monday’s 15-month minimum of 2.377%, although the yield curve was still inverted, with three-month bills reporting 2.461%, which is more than 10-year bonds.

The inversion puzzled many traders as this phenomenon has preceded every American downtime for the last 50 years, provoking a drastic selloff in stock markets worldwide late the previous week as well as a stampede into longer-dated American government debt.

In February, home building decreased more than anticipated because construction of single-family houses went down to an almost two-year minimum, while the consumer confidence index by the Conference Board suddenly inched down.

The evergreen buck rebounded to 110.61, from Monday’s 1-1/2-month minimum of 109.70.

218

China’s March factory activity shrinks for the fourth month

More at: China’s March factory activity shrinks for the fourth month

28.03.2019

In China, in March, factory activity tumbled for a fourth straight month, in a sign that the Chinese economy is still losing steam. It contributed to fears about faltering global surge.

A dismal outcome, coming on the heels of the steepest dive in industrial gain for 7 years, would underline the necessity of greater stimulus as the Chinese government struggles to fix the national economy and resolve a bruising trade conflict with America.

The official Purchasing Managers’ Index hit 49.5, soaring a bit from February’s outcome of 49.2, although still below the 50 mark, which separates contraction from expansion on a monthly basis.

In March, seasonal factors probably drove the uptick in the factory indicator because factories increased activity after last month’s long Lunar New Year holidays. Besides this, some steel mills have also began to ramp up output as winter smog restrictions are over.

While weakness in the headline result is generally anticipated, policymakers and traders will probably focus on whether there’s any improvement in domestic orders responding to a series of surge boosting measures for the last time.

Export orders will probably stay weak because China’s trade-oriented neighbors, including South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan have all faced decelerating demand.

Tit-for-tat levies slapped by China and America remain in place as they keep negotiating their trade issues. However, with the everlasting trade conflict, which has disrupted the flow of billions of dollars of goods between the two leading economies, no one knows for sure whether an agreement acceptable to the partners can be made or not.

On Wednesday, US statesmen told that China and America have achieved progress in all negotiated areas.

219

Weekly Cryptonews

29.03.2019

Andreas Antonopoulos, Bitcoin guru: “I would say Bitcoin is the fifth evolution of money in its most abstract form coupled to a new governance model that delivers the purest form of network governance we’ve ever seen.”

Let’s look at the daily chart of Bitcoin. The week has been optimistic for the digital currency. On Tuesday, it bounced from the $3,935 level rose higher. At the moment, the oldest cryptocurrency is targeting the resistance at $4,212. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at $4,291. If bears take over the market, Bitcoin will plunge to the support at $4,037. The next support is placed at $3,935. What about indicators? Parabolic SAR shows an upward movement for the digital asset, while ADX demonstrates the strength of bulls. If we look at RSI, we see that the indicator is approaching the overbought zone, if it enters this zone and leaves it, it may provide a short-term selling opportunity.

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New announces:

Japanese online retailer Rakuten and Yahoo! Japan got the government’s approval for launching their own crypto trading platforms.
Linh Thanh Group and KRONN Ventures got a license for the creation of the first regulated crypto exchange platform in Vietnam. At the same time, cryptocurrencies are banned in the country.
Wuabit company develops a crypto wallet for WhatsApp. Does Zuckerberg know about it?
Pantera Capital venture company invested $160 million in crypto exchange platforms and blockchain startups. It’s worth to mention that they planned to gain $15 million more.
Apple announced the launch of a virtual credit card with free support.
Largest railway company of Japan JR East considers starting accepting crypto.
Pay attention:

Kaspersky Lab antivirus company warns about the Lazarus hacker group, which has prepared new scenarios for attacking crypto exchange platforms and their users.

220

5 important things this week will bring us!

More at: What to expect on April 1-5

01.04.2019

The beginning of the week has brought risk-on sentiment into the market after the continuation of trade talks between China and the US and positive figures of Chinese manufacturing PMI for March. Let’s see what else will impact on the market this week.

US retail sales and core retail sales (Mon, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – According to analysts, the level of retail sales will rise by 0.3%. At the same time, its core level is expected to advance by 0.4%. Higher-than-expected figures will boost the USD.

Rate statement by the Reserve bank of Australia (Tue, 06:30 MT (04:30 GMT)) – The RBA will not make any changes to its rate which is currently set at 1.5%. However, the central bank may provide some hints on the possible changes to its future monetary policy. As some analysts predict the rate cut soon, it would be interesting to see the outlines of the statement and to consider the moves of the AUD.

US core durable goods orders (Tue, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – We anticipate the change in the total value of core durable goods orders to increase by 0.3%. If the actual figures are higher, the USD will be supported.

NFP (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – Analysts project the level of non-farm payrolls to advance by 175 thousand jobs. The higher level will be appreciated by the USD bulls.

Canadian jobs data (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – The level of employment change is expected to decline by 10,000 people, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 5.8%. If the employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the expectations, the CAD will go up.

Hot topics:

Trade talks between the US and China will continue on Wednesday in Washington. Last week, the Chinese government announced about the extension of retaliatory tariffs on US automobiles and include fentanyl in a list of controlled drugs. This is one of the factors which resulted in risk-on sentiment in the market.

During the early trading session, the release of the Chinese PMI reduced worries about the economic slowdown in the country. The indicator reached 50.5 points (vs. 49.6 points expected). It helped the aussie and the kiwi to get positive momentum today.

British Parliament will hold another round of indicative votes today at 22:00 MT time. The members of the parliament will decide on the future of Brexit. If they fail, the UK will either leave on April 12 without a deal or apply for a longer extension and participate in the European Parliament elections

Pay attention!

From today, MT4, MT5, and FBS Trader platform clock have turned 1 hour ahead.

221

Fractals

A fractal is a pattern in which the same configuration occurs throughout the structure, on a variety of different scales. In other words, it’s a pattern that can be subdivided into similar patterns similar to each other and to the parent pattern.

222

Risk hunger continues: US-China deal is in focus

More at: http://bit.ly/2Upaptq

03.04.2019

Today’s risk-on sentiment in the markets was provoked by the anticipation of the trade negotiations between the US and China. The high-level talks resume in Washington as China’s Vice Premier Liu He plans to meet with US trade representatives. Last week China made significant progress towards reaching a deal as it announced various concessions. These concessions included an extension of the suspension of retaliatory tariffs on US autos and regulation of the opioid fentanyl.

According to Myron Brilliant, executive vice president for international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 90% of the deal is done at the moment. However, the final 10% is the trickiest part that would require compromise.

What does the final 10% include?

One of the major sticking points is connected with the US enforcement and implementation mechanism. This mechanism will ensure that China follows the outlines of the deal.
 Another issue is connected with the removal of the existing US tariffs on Chinese goods. Up to know, the US hasn't responded to this demand.

That is, if these issues remain unsolved, the uncertainties will hurt the risk-on atmosphere in the market.

What about the currencies?

If the sides make positive progress today, the risk appetite in the market will push the NZD, the AUD and the emerging market currencies higher.

Let’s consider the key levels for the New Zealand dollar.

On the daily chart, the NZD/USD pair has bounced from the support at the weekly pivot at 0.6741, which lies close to the 200-day SMA. Up to now, the kiwi is targeting the resistance at the weekly pivot at 0.6833. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 0.6892. In case of the risk aversion, the pair will fall below the 0.6741 level. The next key support will be placed at 0.6682. If we look at indicators, ADX shows the bearish pressure, while Parabolic SAR demonstrates the downward movement.

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223

NFP will bring volatility to the USD

04.04.2019

The United States will release the level of Non-Farm Employment Change, also known as Nonfarm Payrolls or NFP, at 15:30 MT time on April 5.

The NFP represents the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. This is one of the most important measures of employment in the US. Traders pay huge attention to this indicator, as it makes the greenback extremely volatile after the release. Last time, the indicator reached only 20 thousand payrolls (vs. 180 thousand jobs expected). It weakened the USD. Let’s see if the indicator comes out higher this time.

• If the NFP is higher than expected, the USD will rise.

• If the NFP is lower than expected, the USD will fall.

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