Forex today: Daily analysis

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
224

Evergreen buck is stuck in a range

05.04.2019

On Friday, the evergreen buck is settling into rather a tight band ahead of the crucial American employment report.

The greenback obtained just short-lived support from Trump’s remarks, indicating that a trade deal is still four weeks away and provided no details about the unresolved issues.

Estimating the greenback’s purchasing potential in contrast with its main peers the USD index hit 96.852, tumbling by 0.1% from its overnight maximum.

The UK pound is also range-bound because the financial markets wait for the result of efforts by UK Prime Minister Theresa May as well as opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn to come to a compromise on an alternative to the Withdrawal Agreement discussed with the European bloc.

The UK currency has been underpinned by Wednesday’s vote that further constrained the UK cabinet’s ability to pick crashing out without transitional deals in place at the end of next week. As for a no-deal Brexit, it still appears to be the legal default, unless the EU members agree unanimously to have the deadline extended. EU Council President Donald Tusk offers a 12-month extension, while French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told that there should a persuasive reason.

The common currency is a bit stronger after German industrial output in February went up a bit more than anticipated, taking the edge off Thursday’s downbeat mood over another slump in manufacturing orders. Brexit woes along with the global deceleration have a strong impact on German industry, as some experts explained.

Additionally, the Turkish lira is still pressured after a smaller-than-anticipated ascend in the major bank’s foreign reserves the previous week. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen was a bit weaker after dismal household spending data.

225

LESSON 20. Margin, Leverage, Margin Call, Stop Out.

How much money should you have on your account to keep trading? It’s logical that you will need money to maintain open positions.
The necessary sum is called margin. Forex brokers set margin requirements for clients.

Let’s get to learn!

http://bit.ly/2U0rWUB

226

Will the ECB be hawkish this time?

More at: Will the ECB be hawkish this time?

09.04.2019

The European central bank will release its monetary policy statement and conduct a press conference on April 10 at 14:45 MT time.

We don’t expect the ECB to change its interest rate which is currently kept at 0%. However, the ECB president Mario Draghi may provide some hints on the possible changes to the current monetary policy amid the global slowdown. Last time his dovish comments on the current economic weakness in Europe pulled the EUR lower. If he is more hawkish this time, the EUR will rise.

• If the ECB is hawkish, the EUR will go up.

• If the ECB is dovish, the EUR will go down.

227

The greenback may rise on the release

10.04.2019

The level of monthly PPI for the US will be out on April 11 at 15:30 MT time.

The indicator represents the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers. Last time the indicator came out lower, than analysts’ expectations. The actual figures disappointed the market and weakened the USD. Let’s see if it can support the greenback this time.

• If PPI is higher than expected, the USD will rise.

• If PPI is lower than expected, the USD will fall.

228

Scaling in and out of positions

What is scaling

Imagine, you opened your position, placed stop loss and take profit. What would be your next steps? Well, you may just sit and wait for further market moves. On the other hand, professional traders try to be more flexible while making their trading decisions by scaling in and out opened positions. If you want to trade more like a pro, then this article is for you! Let’s find out what is scaling and how you need to apply it correctly to manage your risks.

229

Weekly Cryptonews

More at: http://bit.ly/2US7edQ

12.04.2019

David Tawil, the president of a crypto hedge fund ProChain Capital: “We continue to expect another leg downward. It’s nice to see a positive move as opposed to a negative move, certainly. But at the same time, for investor purposes, it’s not a particularly comforting move. Certainly, an investor would much rather see a gradual rise with constant floors in terms of downside being established, as opposed to a very, very quick run-up. It could be easy come, easy go.”

The overheated market has started to calm down since the beginning of the week. On the daily chart, Bitcoin could not stick above the resistance at $5,300 and started to fall to the support at $4,830. However, on Friday, the digital currency has got a positive momentum and moved up a little bit higher. Bulls need to break the resistance at $5,300 to explore fresh highs. The next resistance will lie at $5,636. If bears are strong, Bitcoin will fall to the support at $4,830. If this level is broken, the next support will lie at $4,255. If we look at indicators, parabolic SAR shows the upward movement for the oldest crypto and ADX demonstrates the overheated market conditions.

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Regulations:

Chinese Reform and Development Commission suggested banning mining. The future of this industry in China will be determined on May 7.
The US Congress will review the project of the law, which suggests removing cryptocurrencies from the equities law.

New announces:

Facebook wants to attract $1 billion of investments in its stablecoin. Did Zuckerberg run out of money?
Telegram started to test its new TON blockchain platform.
Digital Asset Holdings will create programmed instruments for trading derivatives.
Lichtenstein’s Bank Frick and Bitcoin Suisse launched new exchange product BTC-ETH-tracker for professional and institutional investors.
Leading Japanese bank MUFG will release stablecoin backed by Japanese yen until the end of the year.

Current prices (last update 17:13 MT time)

Bitcoin $5,126

DASH $123.76

Ethereum $166.85

Litecoin: $79.98

1 Like
230

Buy and hold!

231

And then one day (3 - 10 years), you wakeup. Watch some news on CNBC. Then you will know thats you are rich.

1 Like
232

5 news this week will bring us!

15.04.2019

British CPI (Wed, 11:30 MT) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will reach 2%. Higher figures will be supportive for the British pound.

Canadian CPI and trade balance (Wed, 15:30 MT) – The level of the consumer price index for Canada is expected to increase by 0.7%. As for its trade balance, it will come out at -$3.5 billion. If the actual figures are higher, the CAD will rise.

Australian jobs data (Thu, 4:30 MT) – Analysts anticipate the level of employment change to advance by 15.2 thousand people. At the same time, the unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 5%. If the actual level of employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the AUD will get positive momentum.

French flash services PMI, German flash services and manufacturing PMI (Thu, 10:15 and 10:30 MT) – If the actual levels of indicators outperform the projections, the EUR will go up.

US retail sales and core retail sales (Thu, 15:30 MT time) – The level of retail sales are anticipated to increase by 0.9%. As for its core level, it will likely rise by 0.7%. Let’s see how these releases affect the USD.

Hot topics:

The market will be closely watching the release of the Chinese GDP growth on Wednesday at 5:00 MT time for the hints on the global slowdown. Analysts anticipate the indicator to reach 6.3%. If it comes out lower than the forecasts, the risk sentiment will go down.

The trade talks between the US and Japan will be held on April 15-16 in Washington. The key issues of discussion will include the US tariffs on Japanese autos and Japan’s tariffs on the agricultural goods. While the US side hopes to resolve the key issues quickly, Japan may show the opposition on making an agricultural deal. According to the unnamed official, this deal may violate the rules of WTO. Positive progress on the deal will be appreciated by the market.

During the weekend, Donald Trump criticized the Fed again, noting that it made unnecessary rate hikes. “If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points,” the president tweeted on Sunday. “Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite!”, - said the US president. At the same time, the ECB president Mario Draghi expressed his worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve during the IMF meeting.

Russia added worries to the oil bulls. According to the Russian officials, the country wants to pump more oil to compete with the US on the market share. This news may pull the price for oil down.

233

Will the Australian jobs data push the AUD?

http://bit.ly/2GgHjmV

16.04.2019

The levels of employment change and the unemployment rate for Australia are expected on April 18, at 4:30 MT time.

Job creation is an important indicator, which is connected to consumer spending. The more people are employed, the more money they can spend. Last time the level of employment change came out much lower than the expectations (4.6K vs 14.8K). At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.9%. Let’s see if the indicators support the Australian currency this time.

• If the employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the aussie will rise;

• If the employment change is lower and the unemployment rate is higher than the forecasts, the aussie will fall.

234

Changes in Trading Schedule due to Good Friday!

This year April 19 is marked by Good Friday – a symbolic holiday for Christians. On this day believers go on fasting, attend special religious services in churches, and prefer to stay concentrated on the thoughts about their mission in the world.

Changes in Trading Schedule due to Good Friday

235

British customers remain calm

Read more: British customers remain calm

18.04.2019

UK customers generally neglected fears about an impending Brexit deadline. As a result, they spent a lot this month, as official data revealed on Thursday.

As a matter of fact, in annual terms, retail sales volumes managed to jump by the most for two-and-a-half years, soaring by 6.7%, as the Office for National Statistics informed.

The given outcome surpassed all estimates in a Reuters survey of experts.

As ONS officials told, the jump in part reflected the peak of spending in 2018, when the United Kingdom was affected by a series of snowstorms as well as icy weather.

This year, warm weather in March really assisted to ramp up spending of UK customers on clothing.

Sales went up by 1.1% in monthly terms, thus confounding the median estimate of a 0.3% dive in the Reuters survey.

For the first three months of this year, a smoother outcome of spending patterns, sales headed north by 1.6% in contrast with the previous three months, which appears to be the strongest jump since August last year.

The United Kingdom was originally due to depart from the European bloc on March 29, although that deadline was pushed back to April 12 and after this again to October 31 due to the fact UK Prime Minister Theresa May didn’t manage to break an impasse in the British legislative body on the terms of Brexit.

By the way, the figures uncovered on Thursday by the ONS covered the period February 24- March 30.

Additionally, consumer spending has underpinned the British economy through the Brexit downtime, in steep contrast to businesses that have cut back on investment.

The Bank of England has forecast the slowest economic surge for a decade in 2019.

236

Tunisia and Afghanistan intend to issue Bitcoin bonds

Read at: Tunisia and Afghanistan intend to issue Bitcoin bonds

19.04.2019

The major financial institutions of Afghanistan and Tunisia are geared up towards issuing a Bitcoin bond. That’s what Asia Times, Hong Kong-based news outlet informed on April 17.

The chiefs of the two country’s major banks delivered a speech at the annual Spring Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the World Bank Group as well as the International Monetary Fund in Washington in April 8-14. Additionally, Khalil Sediq, Afghanistan’s major bank chief revealed to Asia Times that the bank is about to issue a sovereign crypto bond for the purpose of raising $5.8 billion.

The funds would be utilized for private-sector investment in energy, agriculture, and mining. Aside from Bitcoin, Sediq also mentioned metal futures, in particular, lithium and also stressed that Afghanistan’s mineral reserves are expected to be worth more than $3 trillion.

Additionally, the governor of Tunisia’s major financial institution and also ex-World Bank official, Marouane El Abassi came up with a statement that the major bank is also considering the issuance of a bitcoin bond. Abassi added that Tunisia turned out to be one of the first to issue a crypto asset as well as already implemented payments via a digital system.

In addition to this, Abassi also recommended blockchain, Hyperledger, and Bitcoin as a tool for major financial institutions to withstand money laundering, fight terrorism, manage remittances and also tame grey economies. Aside from that, the article also noted that Uzbek ambassador Javlon Vakhabov told his country doesn’t exclude the development of a Bitcoin bond.

As Cointelegraph informed in September in 2018, Austria’s cabinet also started €1.15 billion of government bonds on the Ethereum public blockchain.

In March, Germany’s justice as well as finance ministries have offered to launch a state-run register to spur the employment of blockchain for e-bonds.

237

Will the Bank of Canada shake the loonie?

Read at: http://bit.ly/2UScoY7

22.04.2019

The bank of Canada will make its monetary policy statement and announce the official rate on April 24, at 17:00 MT time.

We anticipate the interest rate to remain unchanged at 1.75%. However, the Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz may throw some hints on the possible changes to the monetary policy of the bank in the future amid the global uncertainties. As the rumors about the possible rate cut keep circulating, it would be interesting to hear the opinion of the BOC governor. Moreover, his comments will likely affect the performance of the Canadian dollar.

• If the BOC is hawkish, the Canadian dollar will go up;

• If the BOC is dovish, the Canadian dollar will go down.

Check the economic calendar

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238

Bitcoin overleaps 5,512.9

23.04.2019

On Tuesday, Bitcoin managed to overleap the $5,512.9 mark.

As a matter of fact, the number one cryptocurrency, Bitcoin hit 5,512.9 on the Investing.com Index, heading north by up to 5.16%. The given reading happened to be the most impressive one-day percentage ascend since April 2.

In fact, the move upwards pushed Bitcoin’s market capitalization up hitting $94.3B, which appears to be 52.12% of the overall crypto market capitalization. By the way, at its highest value, this digital coin’s market capitalization accounted for $241.2B.

For the last 24 hours, Bitcoin had fluctuated in a band of $5,291.4-$5,573.3.

For the last week, Bitcoin has faced an ascend in value, so it tacked on by about 4.83%. Eventually, the overall volume of Bitcoin traded for the twenty-four hours to time of writing amounted to $13.2B that stands for 31.69% of the overall volume of all digital coins. For the last week, the most popular crypto asset has fluctuated in a band of $5,165.5171-$5,573.3140.

By the way, at its current value, the most popular digital currency is still down 72.26% from its all-time peak of $19,870.62, which was achieved on December 17, 2017.

In addition to this, on the Investing.com Index, Ethereum hit $175.11, soaring by up to 3.44% on the day.

Aside from that, on the Investing.com Index, XRP was worth $0.32560, thus demonstrating a 0.22% leap.

As for Ethereum’s market capitalization, last it amounted to $18.4B, which stands for 10.17% of the overall crypto market capitalization. Additionally, XRP’s market capitalization managed to reach an outcome of $13.9B, which amounts to up to 7.67% of the overall cryptocurrency market value.

239

Scalping

It is one of the most popular forms of trading, especially among newcomers. It is a fast-paced, mind-rattling, and an adrenaline-inducing type of trading.
The main objective of scalping is to rush into the trade at the busiest hours of the day, grab a very small amount of pips and exit the market immediately. .
Let’s learn more about Scalping!

http://bit.ly/2DxnHum

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240

European stocks go down

More at: European stocks go down

25.04.2019

On Thursday, European stocks declined after a mixed pack of earnings from the region as well as worries for the euro zone economy resurfaced following a dismal German sentiment poll yesterday.

Eventually, the Finnish telecom network equipment maker went down by 10% that appears to be its steepest slump for 18 months after it posted a shocking quarterly loss, referring to hard competition in its core networks business.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index tumbled by 0.1% following an eight-session ascend in the benchmark index recorded on Wednesday.

Nokia’s dive helped to bring the tech index 0.9% down after yesterday’s 4% leap.

The UK’s FTSE lagged, affected in part by the country’s number three homebuilder Taylor Wimpey that warned its full-year margins would be a bit lower. Moreover, it also suppressed its peers.

Sainsbury’s went down by 5% after the UK’s competition watchdog blocked the retailer’s proposed 7.3 billion pound takeover of Walmart-owned Asda.

German heavyweight Bayer went up because the drug and farming supplies company reported a 45% leap in quarterly core earnings against the backdrop of seed maker Monsanto’s acquisition.

Besides this, semiconductor maker ASM rallied by 7.8% to the top of the regional index having beaten first-quarter objectives, while Germany’s Dialog Semiconductor headed north by over 1% having predicted higher than expected gains in the first quarter.

Aside from that, the banking index headed south by 0.3%, suppressed by Barclays as well as Swedbank stocks.

Britain’s Barclays declined having posted a 10% dive in quarterly gain because its under-pressure investment bank struggled with tough financial markets.

Eventually, Swedbank declined more than 3% having posted an estimate-beating first-quarter gain because the Swedish lender admitted to previous faults in fighting money laundering.

Deutsche stocks jumped by 4.7%, while those of Commerzbank decreased by 2.5%.

241

Weekly Cryptonews

http://bit.ly/2PEwqjf

26.04.2019

Zooko Wilcox, Zcash founder: “In ten years, nobody is going to say, ‘Oh that’s a privacy coin.’ They’re going to say, ‘Oh, that’s a normal coin that you can use for all normal business anywhere in the world.’ Just like how today we don’t say, ‘Oh HTTPS, this must be a privacy website and I must be using a privacy browser.”

On Tuesday, the oldest cryptocurrency bounced from the resistance at $5,636 and fell in the direction of the support at $5,385. The wave of shock has come to the crypto community on Friday after the reports that Bitfinex exchange utilized illegal transactions to cover up $850 million in Tether that were missing. According to the investigation of the New York Attorney General’s office, the missing funds were removed from the USDT reserves and the loss was never revealed to investors. The price for Bitcoin has fallen sharply on the news and tested the ground below the $5,245 level. At the moment of writing (12:50 MT), it is trading near the support at $5,385. On the downside, the strong bearish pressure may pull the price for the digital asset below this level to the next support at $5,245. On the upside, if bulls take over the market, they will target the resistance at $5,636. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at $6,184.

If we look at indicators, MACD formed lower highs, which signals a potential reversal to the downside.

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New announces:

British online banking Wirex will release 26 stablecoins backed by different fiat currencies on the Stellar blockchain.
The subsidiary of the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale released tokenized shares with the cost of 100 million euro on the Ethereum blockchain.
The Moon startup launched a service for buying goods on Amazon with BTC, LTC, and ETH. You need a Lightning-wallet to do this.
220 banks joined the blockchain payment system Interbank Information Network by JPMorgan.
Samsung invests $2.9 million into crypto startup Ledger.
Yelp introduced a new search tag that allows users to tag and search vendors who accept cryptocurrency for payment.

Current prices (last update 13:14 MT time)

Bitcoin $5,411

DASH $113.84

Ethereum $158.73

Litecoin: $74.31

242

5 important events this week will bring us!

More at: News on April 29-May 3

29.04.2019

Canadian GDP growth (Tue, 15:30 MT) – If the indicator outperforms the forecasts, the loonie will get boosted.

Jobs data for New Zealand (Wed, 01:45 MT) – Analysts anticipate the level of employment change to increase by 0.5%. As for the unemployment rate, it is projected to decline to 4.2%. Higher figures for the employment change and lower for the unemployment rate will be positive for the NZD.

FOMC statement (Wed, 21:00 MT) – The Federal Reserve will keep its interest rate unchanged at 2.5%. Traders need to pay attention to the tone of the statement and comments by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. If they are hawkish, the USD will be supported.

BOE monetary policy summary (Thu, 14:00 MT) – The Bank of England’s future steps have been covered with the Brexit fog after the previous meeting, that is why any supportive comments by the BOE governor will be good for the GBP.

NFP (Fri, 15:30 MT) - The most anticipated indicator will advance by 181 thousand payrolls, according to forecasts. If the actual level is higher, the USD will rise.

Hot topics:

The US-China trade talks will continue this week on April 30 in Beijing. According to the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the sides are heading close to the final agreement. However, the key issues including intellectual property and forced technology transfer are still unresolved. Positive progress in these negotiations will increase the risk-on sentiment in the market.

Oil fell after the demand of US president Donald Trump to raise the output to soften the impact of the American sanctions against Iran.

Theresa May tries to find a way to secure the Brexit deal before the EU elections on May 23. Reportedly, the government is not ready to have another vote for the deal in Parliament this week.

243

Evergreen buck goes down for the third day

More at: Evergreen buck goes down for the third day

30.04.2019

On Tuesday, the evergreen buck went down versus key counterparts, slumping for a third day in a row because signs of decelerating inflation cemented market hopes that the Fed will have its rates cut in 2019.

Gauging the greenback’s purchasing power against its primary peers the USD index headed south by about 0.3% showing 97.34.

On Tuesday, policymakers started a two-day gathering, widely anticipated to bring no changes to interest rates when the decision is revealed a day later.

In 2019, the major US bank changed its tune because fears over global surge as well as poor inflation made it retreat from previous estimates that it would lift rates twice this year and also be patient enough with further tightening.

However, financial markets have gone further, pricing in over a 60% likelihood that the major US bank will have interest rates cut in December.

Last Friday, the evergreen buck started its current stretch of dives against the backdrop of signs of decreasing price pressures. Additionally, inflation data uncovered with first-quarter surge numbers the previous week as well as the core personal consumption expenditures price index for March have seen the greenback rebound from near two-year maximums.

The currency pair rallied versus the evergreen buck because better-than-anticipated economic surge in the euro zone backed the euro.

Furthermore, cable was boosted on reports that cross-party negotiations between ruling Conservatives as well as the opposition Labour Party over Brexit, and Britain’s departure from the EU is demonstrating decent progress.

Tokyo markets are unavailable this week for a holiday that experts tell exacerbate volatility because of the lack of liquidity, although the Japanese yen still managed to go up to three-week maximums.