Forex today: Daily analysis

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305

Market updates on August 1

01.08.2019

Key events ahead:

Monetary policy summary by the BOE, BOE inflation report – 14:00 MT time

ISM manufacturing PMI for the US – 17:00 MT time

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by 25 basis points. The market had fully priced in this decision and expected more hints on the further path of the interest rate’s cut. However, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell failed to be as dovish as the market wanted him to be. The statement was mostly the same as the previous one, and the USD rose higher. EUR/USD has tested the support at 1.1033. If this level is broken, the pair will slide lower to the 1.0982 level. If the USD weakens, the pair will have a chance to rise above the 1.1056 level. The next resistance will lie at 1.1137. After that, pay attention to the 1.1155 level.

The British pound has tested fresh lows at the 1.2108 level and is awaiting the bank of England to determine the further direction for the cable. If the current support is broken, the next level will lie at 1.2017. If the central bank supports the pound, GBP/USD may rise to the 1.2177 level. The next resistance will be placed at 1.2248. Technically, the price formed a bullish divergence with MACD on H4, which may signal a rebound soon.

USD/JPY has risen after the Fed decision. After the test of the 109.31 level, the pair fell to the support at 109.08. If the pair continues to weaken, the next support will be placed at 108.71. After that, pay attention to the levels at 108.51-108.45, as there will be high chances of reaching these levels. From the upside, if bulls retest the 109.31 level, the next resistance will lie at 109.61.

The Brazilian central bank unexpectedly cut its interest rate to the record low of 6% since 1986. The rate cut pushed USD/BRL higher above the 50-period SMA on H4 to the resistance at 3.8270. The next resistance will lie at 3.8470. From the downside, pay attention to 3.7604 and 3.7317 level.

306

Market updates on July 31: the Fed decision

Check the charts: News for today

31.07.2019

Key events ahead:

ADP Non-farm employment change for the US – 15:15 MT (12:15 GMT) time

Canadian GDP – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

FOMC statement – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time

FOMC press conference – 21:30 MT (18:30 GMT) time

The market is trading cautiously ahead of the Fed monetary policy statement at 21:00 MT time. On H4, EUR/USD is consolidating between the resistance at 1.1158 and the support at 1.1132. If the rate cut happens today, the USD will weaken. In that case, the break of the 1.1158 level will happen and the next resistance level will lie at 1.1174. After that, pay attention to the 1.1198 resistance level. If the Fed chair surprises the market with no changes to the interest rate, the pair will slide below the 1.1132 level to the next support at 1.1116. If this level is broken, the euro will fall towards the 1.1086 level. If we look at MACD we can see that it is placed closed to the 0 level, which signals a possible reversal.

GBP/USD stopped falling and started to wait for the Fed to determine its further direction. If the Fed is dovish, the cable may break the 1.2168 level and target the next resistance at 1.2197. After that, bulls may push the pair higher to the 1.2225 level. In the case of the Alternative scenario, GBP/USD will move below the support at 1.2145. The next support will lie at 1.2118. If the pair manages to overcome this level, the further fall to the 1.2017 level may happen on the fears of a no-deal Brexit.

USD/JPY has been trading sideways, too. After the end of a new round of US-China trade negotiations, Chinese policymakers said that the US needs to show enough sincerity in reaching a deal. The news pulled the USD/JPY pair lower during the Asian trading session. Now all eyes are on the Fed decision. If the rate cut is confirmed, the pair will fall below the 108.51 level. The next support will lie at 108.45. After that, the pair may reach the 108.33 level. From the upside, pay attention to the upper border of the consolidation range at 108.64-108.7. The next key level for bulls lies at 108.8.

The FOMC statement will show whether the uptrend for gold will continue. On H4, the yellow metal has been knocking the resistance at $1,433. If it’s broken, the next resistance level will lie at $1,438. After that, the price for gold may reach $1,448 level. In case of the supported US dollar, the levels at $1,428, $1,424 (50-period SMA) and $1,420 will be in focus.

307

Market updates on August 5

05.08.2019

Key events ahead:

American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time

The weekend was hurtful for the market sentiment with the updates from the Chinese side. While Hong-Kong press informed that China questioned the chance of trade talks’ continuation with the US, Beijing asked State buyers to halt US agricultural imports. It resulted in the risk aversion in the markets.

USD/CNH has risen to the record highs above the 7th level and created resistance at 7.1050. If the Chinese yuan is supported, the first key level will lie at 6.9680. After that, pay attention to the next support levels at 6.9360 and 6.9270.

As risk-off sentiment intensified, gold moved higher to the resistance at $1,473 on H4. In case of reversal, pay attention to the $1,448, $1,436 and $1,421 (100 and 50 period SMA)

USD/JPY jumped to the lowest levels since January’s flash crash. The first support for the pair lies at 105.65. After that, pay attention to the 105.3 level. If bulls take over the market the first resistance will lie at 107.45. After the break of this level, reaching the resistance at 107.79 will be possible.

308

Important indicators may push the GBP up

06.08.2019

Great Britain will release the level of GDP growth and manufacturing production on August 9, at 11:30 MT time.

The level of GDP growth measures the economic activity of a country. Last time it advanced by 0.5%, which was in line with the forecast. Analysts expect the indicator to remain at the same level this time. As for manufacturing production, which represents the value of output produced by manufacturers, it increased by the lower-than-expected 1.4% (vs. the forecast of +2.2%). According to the forecasts, the indicator will decline by 0.1% during Friday’s release.

• If the actual figures are higher than the forecasts, the GBP will strengthen;

• If the actual figures are lower than the forecasts, the GBP will weaken.

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309

Market updates on August 7

Check the charts: Market updates on August 7

07.08.2019

Key events ahead:

The speech by the FOMC member Evans – 16:30 MT time

During the RBNZ meeting, the regulator cut its interest rate by 50 basis points (vs. 25 bpt expected). As a result, the New Zealand dollar fell to the lowest levels in 3 years. On H4, the support levels for kiwi lie at 0.6367-0.6377. If these levels are broken, the further fall will be limited by the 0.6296 level. At the moment NZD/USD is trying to rebound towards the resistance at 0.6451. Technically, RSI is about to leave the oversold zone, which may provide a buying opportunity.

Gold has risen even more to its highest levels since 2012 on global fears surrounding trade war between the US and China and comments on the launch of missiles by North Korea. On H4, the price for the yellow metal is trading above the $1,480 level. The next resistance for gold will be placed at $1,515. In case of a reversal, pay attention to the support level at $1,446. If it is broken, the next support will lie at $1,412. RSI is looking up, which means that the rise may continue.

AUD/USD fell to the 10-year low, as investors are afraid that the Reserve Bank of Australia will follow the path of its antipodean colleague. On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD tested the 0.6676 level below the border of the downward trading channel but bounced back within the borders. If the aussie recovers more, the first resistance will lie at 0.6778. After the breakout, pay attention to the 0.68 and 0.6819 levels. On the other hand, strong bears may pull the pair down once again and try to break the 0,6676 level with the following test of the 0.6622 level.

310

Market updates on August 8

Check the charts: News for today

08.08.2019

During the Asian trading session, the People’s Bank of China set the reference rate for USD/CNY at 7.0039. This is the highest level in a decade, but not as high as analysts expected it to be. As a result, USD/CNH fell towards the support at 7.0650 right after the test of the resistance at 7.0977 level. If bears continue to pull the pair down, the current support may be broken, and the next one will lie at 7.0420. In case of a less risky environment, the pair will retest the 7.0977 level.

USD/JPY has been consolidating in the 106-106.27 range after the bullish surge towards the 106.27 level. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance levels at 106.63 and 107.05. On the other hand, if bears take control over the market, the 106 level may be broken and the next support will lie at 105.52. After that, keep an eye on the 105.3 level.

AUD/USD has risen on the softer risk sentiment. After the crossover of the price with the 0.6772 level (23.6% Fibo) on H4, bulls will have a chance to push the pair higher to the 0.68-0.6819 support levels. In case of risk aversion, the support at 0.6752 may be broken and the retest of the 0.6676 level may be possible.

311

Weekly Cryptonews

Check the charts: News on crypto for this week.

09.08.2019

Cryptotraders await when the BTC will choose its direction. On Monday bulls confirmed their strength with the strong rise above the 50-day simple moving average and the 50% Fibo level. After that, the consolidation has begun. Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range between $11,560 (50% Fibo) and $12,030 (61.8% Fibo) levels. If the upper border of the range at $12,030 is broken, the oldest cryptocurrency will rise towards the $12,360 level. The next resistance will lie at $12,770. In case of the alternative scenario, the $11,560 level will be broken and the $10,770 level (50-day SMA) will be in focus.

After the successfully conducted halving in the Litecoin network on Monday, the digital silver tested the 100-day SMA, but could not stick near that level and started to move down. On Friday, it has tested the support at $84.77. In case of a breakout of this level, the price of Litecoin will try to fall to the levels below the 200-day SMA, where it may find the support at $76.78. If the price of the digital currency reverses, the first resistance will lie at $92.19. The next one will be placed at $98.86.

The price of Ethereum has been weakening, too. The digital asset has been trading within a month-long range between the $202.04 and $233 levels. After the test of the upper border of this range on Monday, the digital currency has been moving down. If the lower border of the range at $202.04 is broken, the next support will be placed at $192 (50-day SMA). From the upside, the next key resistance will lie at $250.

The situation has not changed for DASH since the last week. The breakout on Monday appeared to be the fake one and the cryptocurrency returned to the 100.64-106.9 range. From the upside, the next level lies at $113.78. In case of the downward pressure, the key level will be placed at $97.3.

312

Market updates on August 12

12.08.2019

Key events:

Speech by RBA Assistant Governor Kent – 23:00 MT (20:00 GMT) time

During the Asian trading session, the People’s Bank of China once again set its reference rate for USD/CNY at 7.0211 (lower than expected). The USD/CNH pair inched lower on that announcement, but then immediately rose back to the resistance at 7.1080. At the moment the pair is testing the highs above this resistance level. In case of the stronger yuan, watch the levels at 7.0880 and 7.0650.

After the crucial test of the 1.2015 level, GBP/USD has moved higher towards the resistance at 1.2084. If this level is broken, pay attention to the 50-period SMA, which lies at 1.2145. From the downside, watch for the retest of the 1.2015 level. After that, the further fall will be limited by 1.1993.

USD/JPY has been moving down. On H4, the price is forming the descending triangle and is looking forward to the test of the 105.04 level. The next support will lie at 104.73. From the upside, pay attention to the 105.7 level. If bulls manage to break it, there is a chance of the rise towards the 106.22 level.

313

Market updates on August 13

13.08.2019

British average earnings index – 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT) time

US CPI and core CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

EUR/USD has continued to consolidate between the resistance levels at 1.1210-1.1223 and strong support at 1.1177. Today’s release may bring volatility to the pair. If the USD gets stronger, the 1.1177 level may be broken and the next key level will be placed at the crossover of 50- and 100- period SMA at 1.1162. The next support will lie at 1.1147. Otherwise, if the pair manages to overcome the 1.1210-1.1223 range and sticks above the 200-period SMA, the next resistance will lie at 1.1240.

GBP/USD rose yesterday, but the further upward movement was limited by the upper border of the descending formation at 1.2106. The key levels from the downside lie at 1.2015 and 1.1993. If the GBP is supported, the retest of the 1.2106 level will be possible. The next resistance for the cable lies at 1.2145.

Gold inched higher on global tensions and uncertainties. The yellow metal has jumped above the $1,510 level and is moving up towards the $1,544 level. In case of softer risk sentiment, gold will slide back below the $1,510 level. The next support will lie at $1,495.

Now let’s look at the emerging markets. During the Asian trading session, Singapore’s GDP growth for the second quarter fell by 3.3%. Despite that, the Monetary Authority of Singapore does not plan to change its schedule of meetings until October. As a result, USD/SGD broke to its highest levels since 2017. At the moment, the pair is testing the resistance at 1.3885. The next key level will lie at 1.3910. In case of a reversal, pay attention to the support levels at 1.3859 and 1.3844.

314

Market updates on August 15

Check the charts: News for today

15.08.2019

US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

Philly Fed manufacturing index for the US – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

The Australian dollar was supported today by the upbeat jobs data for Australia. The indicator increased by 41.1 thousand jobs (vs the forecast of 14.2 thousand). The aussie rose above the 50-period SMA towards the 0.6783 level, but failed to stick near its highs on the revised forecasts of the upcoming RBA’s rate cuts and retested the 50-period SMA. If the aussie weakens, the pair may fall to the 0.6746-0.6736 levels. After the breakout of this range, the pair may retest the 0.6677 level. If the Australian dollar sticks above the 50-period SMA, the chance of the retest of 0.6783 level will increase. If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 0.6799.

EUR/USD is awaiting the release of the US indicators. The pair is trading with low volatility on H4. Pay attention to the 1.1150, 1.1157 (100-period SMA) and 1.1166 levels, which may be reached if the releases disappoint the market. From the downside, the key levels will lie at 1.1142, 1.1133 and 1.1116.

USD/JPY spiked towards the 106.74 level, but then immediately moved down to the 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. At the moment of writing the pair has been testing the strong support at 105.8 on H4. In case of a risk-off situation, pay attention to the next support level at 105.52. If the USD is supported, the 106.32-106.22 levels will be in focus.

315

Market updates on August 14

14.08.2019

Key events ahead:

British CPI – 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT) time

Yesterday the US trade representatives had a productive phone call with China, after which Washington announced that it was delaying the 10% tariffs on some of the Chinese goods. China, in its turn, confirmed that the trade talks between the two leading economies were expected to continue in September. The news boosted the risk sentiment and shook the market impressively. USD/JPY tested the 106.95-107.05 highs (the levels remained untouched since August 6) on the news and corrected to the downside facing the 106.31 support level. From the downside, pay attention to the support levels at 105.99 and 105.8. If bulls push the pair higher, it will rise towards the 106.62 level. After the breakout, the next resistance will lie at 106.74. The next key zone for bulls will lie at 106.95-107.05.

GBP/USD has been supported by the higher-than-expected CPI data. If the British pound strengthens more, the cable will break the upper border of the range at 1.2073 and test the resistance at 1.2098. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 1.2145. In case of the pound’s weakness, GBP/USD will slide below the 1.2047 level. The next support will lie at 1.2015.

USD/CNH slid below the 7 level on the softer US-China trade relations. However, after the weaker indicators for China released during the Asian trading session, the pair reversed towards the support-turned-resistance level at 7.0436. Pay attention to the 7.0743 level which will be in focus if risk-off sentiment appears. Alternatively, the support at 7.0066 followed by the 6.9894 level will be in focus.

Despite the better-than-expected wage price index for Australia, AUD/USD has tested the ground below the 50-period SMA. If it continues to fall, the 0.6763 level will be reached. After that, the aussie will be vulnerable to the fall towards the 0.6749 level. If the risk sentiment increases, the test of the resistance level at 0.6799 will be possible. The next one will lie at 0.6817.

316

5 important events this week will bring us!

More at: News on crypto for this week.

19.08.2019

Canadian CPI (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – According to forecasts, the indicator will advance by 0.1%. Higher figures will be appreciated by the CAD bulls.

FOMC Meeting minutes (Wed, 21:00 MT (19:00 GMT) time) – We will wait for the release, as look for more hints regarding the future rate decisions by the Fed. In case of more hawkish hints, the USD will be supported.

New Zealand’s retail sales (Fri, 1:45 MT (22:45 GMT) time) – We anticipate the level of retail sales to increase by 0.1%. If the actual figures are higher, the NZD will rise.

Canadian core retail sales (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – The indicator is expected to decline by 0.1%. Higher figures will be positive for the CAD.

Speech by the Fed Chair Powell (Fri, 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time) – If the Fed Chair sounds hawkish, the USD will go up.

Hot news:

The US plans to postpone restrictions that the Trump administration has imposed on China’s Huawei Technologies Co. It increased the risk-on sentiment in the markets.

Oil prices jumped on the news that Saudi Arabian oil field was attacked by the drone.

On the Brexit front, the government preparations to the no-deal Brexit were leaked. As a result, Jeremy Corbyn plans to bring opposition parties together next week to discuss the prevention of a no-deal Brexit.

317

Is there a chance for the NZD?

More at: An opportunity for the NZD

21.08.2019

New Zealand is going to release the level of quarterly retail sales on August 23, at 1:45 MT time.

The indicator of retail sales shows the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. Traders pay attention to it as it is one of the primary measures of consumer spending. During the previous release, the indicator advanced by 0.7%. The figures came out higher than the expectations of 0.6%. Despite that, the NZD weakened.

• If the level of retail sales is greater than expected, the NZD will go up;

• If the level of retail sales is weaker than expected, the NZD will go down.

318

Market updates on August 22

Check the charts: News for today

22.08.2019

EUR/USD was supported by better-than-expected PMIs for the Eurozone. The pair has been testing the resistance at 1.1106. If this level is broken, we will focus on the next resistance at 1.1114. Next, the bullish pressure may be limited by the 1.1136 level. It is recommended to pay attention to the updates on the situation in Italy, as the political uncertainties there keep being strong. Today the Italian President Sergio Mattarella will meet with the parties in an effort to make a new governing coalition for a country. If the talks fail, the euro may fall down. The first level from the downside lies at 1.1080. After that, it is recommended to pay attention to the 1.1069 level.

While the chance of the no-deal Brexit remains high, the pressure to the British pound intensifies. Today, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the French President Emmanuel Macron are going to meet to discuss the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. The cable is currently trading above the 100-period SMA on H4, close to the resistance line at 1.2140. The next key level will lie at 1.2154. After that the retest of the 1.2174 level seems possible. From the downside, you need to pay attention to the support at 1.2118. If bears pull GBP/USD lower, the next key support will be placed at 1.21 (50-period SMA).

NZD/USD has tested the lowest levels since 2016. On H4, bears tried to pull the pair below the 0.6377 level. If the kiwi continues to weaken against the USD, reaching the support at 0.6339 seems possible. In case of the reversal, pay attention to the 0.6419 level.

319

Market updates on August 23

More at: News for today

23.08.2019

Key events ahead:

Canada’s core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Speech by the Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Symposium – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT)

During the Asian trading session, the comments by the Governor of the Reserve bank of New Zealand Adrian Orr supported the New Zealand dollar. He said that the rate cut by 50 basis points reduced the probability of another one soon. On H4, NZD/USD has risen towards the resistance at 0.6391 and corrected. If bears continue to drag the pair down, the first support for it will lie at 0.6363. Alternatively, if the pair retests the 0.6391 level, the next one will lie at 0.6419 (50-period SMA).

EUR/USD is awaiting the speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. If he provides hawkish comments on the current situation in the economy and reassures the rate cut expectations, the USD will get stronger. In this case, the 1.1065 level will be broken and bears will try to pull EUR/USD lower towards the next support at 1.1028. If he is dovish, the pair will rise up to the resistance at 1.1088. The next key levels will lie 1.1106-1.1114.

USD/CAD inched higher on the news that the European Union will stop the import of some Canadian products from September. After the test of the 1.3325 level, the pair slid to the support at 1.3311. If the CAD is supported today by higher-than-expected core retail sales, the current support will be broken, and the next support will lie at 1.33. Alternatively, pay attention to the 1.3325 level. In case of a breakout of that level, the next resistance will lie at 1.3338.

Gold may move on the comments by the Fed Chair, too. At the moment it trades in a range between the $1,504 and $1,494 levels. Dovish comments by Mr. Powell may push the price of the yellow metal higher to the $1,504 level. If it is broken, the next resistance will lie close to the 50-period SMA at $1,508. In case of strong bullish pressure, there will be a possibility of reaching the $1,516 level. From the downside, after the breakout of the $1,494 level, the next one will lie at 1,490.

320

Market updates on August 26

Check the charts: News for today

26.08.2019

Key events ahead:

US core durable goods orders – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

The escalation of the trade war between the US and China has shaken the markets a lot. On Friday, China announced additional tariffs on $75 billion of American goods, including soybeans, automobiles, and oil. It did not take a long time for US President Donald Trump to respond as the US administration hit back with more tariffs on Chinese imports afterward and called for American companies to exit China’s market. The risk-weighted currencies fell after the market opened, but managed to take back their positions on the comments that China wants to resolve the trade dispute with the US.

AUD/USD tested the 0.6688 level but rebounded to the resistance at 0.6760. If bulls manage to break this level, the next resistance will lie at 0.6776. On the other hand, if the risk sentiment fades again, the pair will retest the 0.6688 level. The next support will lie at 0.6677.

USD/JPY slid below the 104.73 level on H4 but immediately rebounded upwards to the resistance level at 106.03. In case of a breakout of this level, pay attention to the next key resistance at 106.23, which lies close to the crossover of 50- and 100- period SMAs. From the downside, it is recommended to pay attention to the 105.05 level. If the Japanese yen retest it, the chance of the fall to the lowest levels since January’s flash crash at 104.73 will increase.

Gold gapped up to its highest levels since 2013. The yellow metal has tested the highs at $1,555. Softer risk sentiment pulled it lower to the support at $1,525. The next key support for the price of gold will be placed at $1,508.8 (50-period SMA). However, as traders remain cautious today, it is recommended to keep an eye on the $1,555 level, which may be retested if risk-off sentiment increases.

USD/CNH jumped to the fresh highs at 7.17 on the escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China. If the pair reverses, the first support at 7.0917 will be in focus. Bulls, on the other hand, will be looking for a retest of the 7.17 level.

USD/TRY has risen from 5.7553 to 6.2850 during the flash crash, which occurred at the Asian trading session. It happened due to the Japanese investors who cut risk assets. The price immediately returned close to the 5.8066 level, which currently serves as a resistance for the pair. From the downside, the first support lies at 5.7325.

321

5 important events this week will bring us!

27.08.2019

ANZ Business confidence of New Zealand (Thu, 4:00 MT (1:00 GMT) time) – Higher-than-expected figures will push the NZD up.

Private capital expenditure of Australia (Thu, 4:30 MT (1:30 GMT) time) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance by 0.4%. If the actual level outperforms the forecasts, the AUD will rise.

US preliminary GDP (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) - The indicator is expected to increase by 2%. If the actual level is higher, the USD will be supported.

Canadian GDP (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – Analysts expect the Canadian GDP growth to advance by 0.1%. The higher-than-expected level will be appreciated by the USD bulls.

Personal spending of the US (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – The level of personal spending is forecast to advance by 0.5%. As usual, higher figures may push the greenback up.

322

Market updates on August 28

28.08.2019

The governor of the Reserve bank of New Zealand made some remarks on keeping the NZD weaker. As a result, NZD/USD inched lower to the 0.6334. The pair has been trading at the lowest level since 2015. If this level is broken, the next support will lie below the lower border of the descending channel at 0.6297. If the pair recovers, the first resistance level will lie at 0.6366. After the break of this level, the resistance at 0.6391 will be in focus.

Brexit news continues to move the pound. Reportedly, the Queen will be asked to prorogue parliament. She is expected to make a speech on that matter on October 14. That means the opposition parties will have a little time to organize. GBP/USD plunged below the 1.2211 level on the news. The next support levels will lie at 1.2171 and 1.2147. From the upside, pay attention to the 1.2293 level, which will be broken in case of a reversal.

After the slide towards the $1,532 level, the price of gold managed to restore its positions. It is currently moving towards the resistance at $1,544. If this level is broken, the retest of $1,555 will be possible. If the risk-on sentiment increases, the price will slide downwards to the support at $1,532. After the breakout, the price will fall as far as the $1,525 level will be reached.

323

Market updates on August 29

29.08.2019

US preliminary GDP – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

After correcting to the 1-2235-1.2249 levels on H4, GBP/USD moved lower. The cable has tested the ground below the 50-period SMA at the 1.2194 level. If this level is broken, the next support in focus will be placed at 1.2171. In case of an upside movement, we will be looking for a retest of the 1.2213 level. After that, the retest of the levels placed between 1.2235 and 1.2249 will be in focus.

EUR/USD has been trading between 1.1073 and 1.1086 levels. If the USD gets stronger on today’s release, the pair will slide below the 1.1073 level. The next support for the pair will be placed at 1.1065. The further downward movement will be limited by the lower border of a long-term symmetric triangle. On the other hand, bulls will pay attention to the 1.1086 level. If it is broken, the next resistance level will lie at 1.1095 (50-period SMA).

USD/JPY is looking for a break of 50-period SMA and 106.22 level on the more risky sentiment. Buyers may focus on the next level at 106.4 if the current resistance is broken. The next key level will lie at 106.6. From the downside, the first support level will be placed at 105.82. The break of this level will make the pair vulnerable to a fall towards the 105.64-105.51 levels.

324

How will the RBA affect the aussie?

Check the economic calendar: The AUD may move on the news

30.08.2019

The Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) will publish its statement and announce the official rate on September 3, at 7:30 MT time.

The market is assessing the chance of a rate cut during the upcoming meeting. Analysts are sure that the central bank of Australia will ease its monetary policy soon due to the global economic instability. However, not all of them expect September’s meeting to be the crucial one for the RBA. Those who don’t see a rate cut in September suggest waiting for more indicators and negative news. This data will help the policymakers of the bank to determine their next step. Others think that the Reserve bank of Australia should cut the rate immediately due to the global uncertainties. Anyway, the tone of the RBA Governor Philip Lowe will be in focus, as traders will be looking for hints on the future rate decisions.

• If the RBA is hawkish, the AUD will rise;

• If the RBA is dovish, the AUD will fall.