Forex today: Daily analysis

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
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5 important events this week will bring us!

02.09.2019

RBA rate statement (Tue, 7:30 MT (4:30 GMT) time) – We anticipate the Reserve bank of Australia to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1%. At the same time, we will be looking for more hints on further decisions, as the market expects more rate cuts until the end of this year.

Canada’s trade balance (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – According to the forecasts, the difference in value between exported and imported goods will reach 0.2 billion. A higher level will boost the CAD.

Inflation report hearings by the BOE (Wed, 16:15 MT (13:15 GMT) time) – If the Bank of England governor is hawkish, the GBP will be supported.

BOC rate statement (Wed, 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time) – The interest rate is forecast to remain at 1.75%. The attention will be on the tone of the central bank. As usual, more hawkish comments will be appreciated by the CAD bulls.

US jobs data (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – The level of non-farm payrolls is expected to advance by 168 thousand jobs. At the same time, average hourly earnings will increase by 0.3% and the unemployment rate will likely remain at the same level of 3.7%. If the actual level of NFP and average hourly earnings are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will rise.

Hot news:

The United States and China imposed new tariffs on each other’s goods. The 15% tariffs by the US on the part of $300 billion goods was confirmed by Donald Trump during the weekend. At the same time, the retaliatory step came from China with a target of $75 billion in US goods. It pulled the risk sentiment in the market down.

The series of court hearings, which plan to stop the British PM Boris Johnson’s prorogation of the parliament may affect the strength of the British pound. The first one is due tomorrow, so pay attention to the news. It’s worth to remember that the parliament will return on Tuesday and opposition lawmakers are expected to propose legislation to force the government to postpone Brexit.

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Market updates on September 3

03.09.2019

American ISM Manufacturing PMI – 17:00 MT time (14:00 GMT)

The EURUSD pair keeps struggling. On the daily chart, it has already crossed the support at 1.0965 targeting new lows. For intraday trading, we need to consider the H4 chart. The next support is at 1.0934. A break below it will cause a decline to 1.0887. If the actual release of ISM Manufacturing PMI is weaker than the forecast, there is a chance that the fall will be limited. If the pair is able to recover, previous supports will become levels of resistance.

Parliament is due to debate an emergency plan to take control of the legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit on October 31.

On the daily chart of GBPUSD, the pair hit the crucial level of 1.20. Although such indicators as MACD and Awesome Oscillator signal a reversal, the pair has been slowing down. The next support is at 1.1986. If the pair closes below it, we can anticipate a further fall. A rebound will push the pair to 1.2020.

The Australian dollar has been strengthening despite weaker actual reading of retail sales data and luck of hawkish comments by the RBA.

On the daily chart of AUDUSD, the pair rebounded from the support at 0.6689. The pair needs to break above 0.6735 to confirm the recovery. However, Moving Averages continue moving down. It signals a possible continuation of the downtrend. Thus, there are risks of the return to 0.6689.

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Market updates on September 4

04.09.2019

Canadian Trade Balance data – 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)

BOC Rate Statement – 17:00 MT time (14:00 GMT)

On the daily chart of USDCAD, MACD indicator has formed a bearish divergence with the price. It signals the pair is turning down. If we take a look at H4, levels of support are placed at 1.3315, 1.3278 and 1.3251. If the CAD is boosted by the economic data, levels will be reached. However, if the central bank sounds dovish or the actual trade balance data is worse than the forecast, the fall will be limited. Previous supports will become resistances. If the pair stays above 1.3315, the resistances are at 1.3370 and 1.3373.

GBPUSD has strengthened on the Brexit news.

Although the British Parliament started working only yesterday, it managed to affect the British currency.

As the Parliament doesn’t have a lot of time to prevent the no-deal Brexit, today members are supposed to put forward a draft law that would force Mr. Johnson to delay Brexit until January 31, 2020. If the law passes, the Prime Minister will call the general election. Thus, the British currency will continue being highly volatile.

Up to now, the GBPUSD pair has been targeting the resistance at 1.2178. RSI indicator is about to cross the overbought area. However, the pair still has a chance to keep rising. If 1.2178 is broken, the next range of the resistance is 1.2214-1.2240.

If the pair moves down, supports are placed at 1.2117 and 1.2080.

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Just to keep you motivated

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Thanks!! I really appreciate it

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Market updates on September 5

05.09.2019

Forex

The British pound keeps gaining on the Brexit updates. The Parliament passed the legislation both to block a hard no-deal Brexit and a general election.

GBPUSD has crossed the resistance at 1.2290. 50-day MA may become an additional barrier. If 50-day MA is broken, consider 1.2367 as the next target.

If the pair rebounds, look at 1.2216 and 1.2170.

Commodities

Gold turned down on the risk-on sentiment. Any positive sign in the Sino-American trade war improves the market sentiment. Parties announced a fresh round of talks in October. Moreover, China confirmed its willingness to achieve progress in the negotiations.

Currently, XAUUSD is at highs of 2013. Thus, a small correction is obvious. However, it doesn’t mean that the fall will prolong for a long time. Supports are placed at 1536 and 1519-1525.

Unlike gold, WTI is pushed by the risk-on sentiment. Nevertheless, risks of the decline exist. Downward pressure will pull WTI to supports at 55.30 and54.25.

Crude oil inventories data is published today at 18:00 MT time. If the release shows a decline in the number of barrels, WTI will move towards the range of 56.80-57.50.

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Market updates on September 6

Check the charts: Market updates on September 6

06.09.2019

Canadian jobs data – 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)

American jobs data – 15:30 MT time (12:00 GMT)

Fed Chair Powel Speaks - 19:30 MT time (16:30 GMT)

Forex

Traders are cautious awaiting the American jobs data. According to the forecast, in August, NFP gained 160K comparing to 164K a month before. Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate are anticipated to stay on hold. The forecast is not encouraging for the USD. However, the actual release is what actually will show the strength of the American currency.

Later in the evening, Fed chairman Mr. Powell speaks in Zurich. If the chair gives any hints on the future monetary policy, markets will be affected.

The US dollar index has been struggling ahead of the jobs release. If the NFP disappoints, the fall will continue. In the case of encouraging readings, depreciation of the greenback will be limited.

What majors to trade?

EURUSD continues trading in the downtrend but the weakness of the USD has been supporting the rise. If the USD keeps declining, the pair has a chance to reach 1.1065 and move above towards 1.1085. The strong USD will cause a reversal of the pair to 1.1025, 1.0986.

Canadian and American jobs data are to released at the same time. Traders should be careful trading USDCAD.

Up to now, the pair has been sliding because the forecast for the Canadian release is more optimistic than for the American one. The further direction will depend on the actual reading.

If the fall continues, the pair will cross the support range of 1.3198-1.3185. The next supports are at 1.3154 and 1.3118.

If the pair is able to recover, previous supports should be considered as resistances. If bulls keep the pair above 1.3198, the next important levels are 1.3234 and 1.3256.

Commodities.

The correction of the gold continues. Although the USD keeps weakening, the XAUUSD pair is moving down. The risk-on sentiment is the key factor that pulls the gold down.

Now, bears are trying to break the support at 1,508. If they succeed, the next targets are placed at 1,495 and 1,485. If the pair manages to recover, previous supports will be used as resistances. If the pair sticks above 1508, levels to watch are 1,519 and 1,527.

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6 Ways to Prevent Overtrading

If you ever risked without a clear edge in your trading – congratulations, you are overtrading. This habit is very addictive and can ruin your finances quickly. Try these techniques to stop overtrading:

  • Do not try to win back the money right after the loss.
  • Make a trading plan and keep to it. It will help you to discipline yourself.
  • Do not trade 24/7. You cannot be focused and effective without breaks. No need staring at charts non-stop. You may be bored to death, at best, and the worst-case scenario, you’ll take impulsive decisions you are going to regret.
  • Limit your profit and loss for a day. Train your will, stop even if you want more or feel frustrated because of a failure.
  • Decide on the number of trades you can make during the day. Stick to it.
  • Spare time for life without trading! Go out, run, paint, meet friends, and visit the family.

1200×1200

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(Commenting to follow your insights)
For now, my only strategy is go long on the BTC and shorten the GBP

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Given all the brexit background it’s a reasonable bet. Also remember to monitor gold and Petroleum which are usually commodities to be safe when volatility rises :wink:

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IMPORTANT EVENTS TO TRADE THIS WEEK

More at: IMPORTANT EVENTS TO TRADE THIS WEEK

09.09.2019

ECB Meeting (Thu, 14:45 MT (11:45 GMT) time) – analysts don’t predict rate changes. However, traders will look at the tone of the central bank. If the bank sounds hawkish, that is unlikely, the European currency will move up. In the case of the dovish mode covering global uncertainties, the euro will move down.

American CPI level (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) - forecasts are weak but the actual readings will be more important. If the releases overcome the forecasts, the American currency will appreciate.

American retail sales figures (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) - again forecasts are not encouraging, the American currency has risks to decline.

Political issues: Brexit

The sudden resignation of Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd heated up the situation. It’s worth reminding that recently PM’s brother, Jo Johnson, quit the government.

Nevertheless, Boris Johnson is sticking to his decision to bring the UK to the Brexit by the end of October despite a series of fails in the Parliament. There are odds that the Prime Minister will get round the Parliament law requiring a Brexit delay in the case of no deal.

On Monday, the Parliament will vote on the general elections taking its last chance to do something before the shutdown.

Traders should follow the news carefully to not miss an opportunity to trade on the high volatility.

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I’m not a commodity guy, where should I go to get more info about it?

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7 options to make your money work for you

People say that money is not supposed to be simply saved. It is believed that the best way to control your money is to invest it and make it work for you in the future. But what can you invest in? There are many options to choose from.
Choose yours to be sure that your money is safe and sound!

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Oh well, it would depend on what kind of instruments you like the most

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Market updates on September 12

Check the charts: News for today

12.09.2019

Key events ahead:

ECB monetary policy statement and main refinancing rate – 14:45 MT (11:45 GMT) time

ECB press conference – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

US CPI and core CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

Eyes of all traders of the EUR will be on the ECB meeting later today. The European Central bank is expected to deliver a great stimulus package, which may weaken the EUR. At the moment, EUR/USD is moving up towards the resistance at 1.1037. The next key level will be placed at 1.1054. From the downside, the first support will lie at 1.1. After that, you need to pay attention to the 1.0983 level. The next support will lie at 1.0960.

After the US President Donald Trump tweeted he’d be delaying the next tariff hike on Chinese goods for two weeks, the USD/JPY pair tested the 108.16 resistance level. After that, the pair inched to the downside to the support level at 107.78. If the Japanese yen continues to strengthen, the next support will be placed at 107.62. In case of the bullish strength, the pair will rise back to the 108.16 level. The next resistance will lie at 108.29.

The Australian dollar was supported by the news, too. The Antipodean currency has risen to the 0.6885 level. If bulls push AUD/USD pair higher, the next resistance will lie at 0.6896. On the other hand, if the USD gets stronger, the pair will fall to the support at 0.6867. After the breakout of this level, the 0.6857 mark will be important.

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Market updates on September 13

Check the charts: News for today

13.09.2019

Key events ahead:

US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Yesterday, the European Central bank introduced a new stimulus, which included lower rates and fresh quantitative easing measures. EUR/USD pair fell to the support at 1.0929 but managed to rebound and jumped by around 160 pips due to the weaker dollar. Since the beginning of the European trading session, bulls have pushed the pair to the resistance level at 1.1095 (200-period SMA) and have tested the 1.1106 level. The main focus of traders will be on US retail data. According to the forecasts, headline retail sales will increase by 0.2%, while its core level will advance by 0.1%. If the actual figures are higher than the forecasts, the pair will slide below the 1.1065 level. The next support levels in focus will lie at 1.1050 and 1.1036. Alternatively, the disappointing release will weaken the USD. As a result, buyers will be confident enough in retesting the resistance at 1.1106. The next resistance will lie at 1.1116. Strong bullish pressure will push the pair even higher towards the 1.1137 level.

GBP/USD has taken advantage of the weaker USD and jumped by around100 pips to the resistance at 1.2459. The next direction of the pound will depend on the Brexit headlines. From the upside, it is recommended to pay attention to the 1.2459, 1.2495 and 1.2508 levels. If the USD gets stronger, we will see the slide towards the support levels at 1.2427, 1.2395 and 1.2338.

USD/JPY has been moving down on the weaker USD. If it continues to fall further, the test of the support at 107.78 will be inevitable. If it is broken, the next key level will lie at 107.62. Buyers will be focused on the retest of the 108.16-10824 levels. If the pair breaks them, the further rise may be limited by the 108.49 level.

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Lemme rephrase it: I’m a noob. What do you mean by “intruments”?

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Haha I made a mistake, I Meant “Instruments” which are the actual “thing” you’re trading. (i.e. Oil, forex pairs, gold, stocks and so on)

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5 important events this week will bring us!

16.09.2019

British CPI (Wed, 11:30 MT (9:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance by 1.8%. If the actual level is higher, the GBP will rise.

Canadian CPI (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – As for Canada’s consumer inflation index, we are awaiting it to decline by 0.2%.

FOMC rate statement (Wed, 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT)) – The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its interest rate from 2.25-2% to 1.75-2%. In addition, it is important to pay attention to the dot plot, where the FOMC representatives are going to express their views on the future rate changes. After that, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell may also provide comments which may shake the USD at 21:30 MT time.

Australian jobs data (Thu, 4:30 MT (1:30 GMT)) – The employment change is expected to increase by 15.2 thousand jobs, while unemployment change will likely remain at the same level of 5.2%. Higher-than-expected employment change and the lower-than-expected unemployment rate will be positive for the aussie.

The monetary policy summary by the BOE (Thu, 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT)) – The interest rate is forecast to remain at the same level of 0.75%. It is recommended to pay attention to the tone of the statement. Hawkish comments will push the GBP up.

Hot topics:

Crude oil surged after the attack on the Saudi Arabian production facility over the weekend. An attack affected 5% of global crude output. Today, US president Donald Trump announced that he would release US emergency supplies to pull the oil prices down. In addition, oil producers said that there were enough stocks stored up worldwide. However, the fresh attacks pushed prices of WTI and Brent back to their May’s levels.

US and China trade representatives will meet on Friday. The goal of the meeting will be to discuss the possibility of an interim trade deal. We expect risk sentiment to be affected.

The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has had a meeting with the president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker today, where they agreed that Brexit talks must intensify.

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Market updates on September 18

18.09.2019

Key events ahead:

Canadian CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

Crude oil inventories – 17:30 MT (14:30 GMT) time

FOMC rate statement and economic projections – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time

FOMC press conference – 21:30 MT (18:30 GMT) time

EUR/USD has fallen after the test of the 1.1074 level. The pair has touched the 100-period SMA at 1.1035. The direction of the pair will depend on the Fed meeting today at 21:00 MT. The market anticipates a rate cut. If it happens, the USD is forecast to fall. In this case, buyers will take advantage of the weaker USD and push the pair higher. The first resistance level lies at 1.1055. If it is broken, pay attention to the next resistance levels at 1.1067 and 1.1074. If the Fed surprises with keeping its rate on hold, the USD will strengthen. Bears will pay attention to the 1.1035 levels. If they manage to break it, the further levels in focus will be placed at 1.1014 and 1.1. Technically, the pair formed a symmetrical triangle.

The traders of the CAD are awaiting the release of Canadian CPI at 15:30 MT. According to the forecasts, the indicator will slide by 0.2%. Higher-than-expected figures will pull USD/CAD below the 200-period SMA towards the support at 1.3253. The next key support will lie below the 100-period SMA at 1.3238. If the actual figures disappoint the market, the pair will rise above the 1.3271 level. The next resistance for the pair will be placed at 1.3289.

Oil prices are consolidating ahead of the release of crude oil inventories. According to the forecast, the number of barrels held in inventory by commercial firms will decline by 2.1 million. Bigger fall will push the oil prices higher. The first resistance for WTI’s price will lie at $59.42. After that, pay attention to the $59.85, $60.5 and $60.86 levels. In case of an alternative scenario, the first support will lie at $58.76. After that, it is recommended to pay attention to the $58.4 and $57.72 levels.

Key levels for Brent’s bulls are placed at $64.6, $65.2 and $65.76. In case of the fall, bears will target support levels at $63.46 and $62.9 (50-period SMA)