I’m not terribly happy with the price action but all indicators are still up. I have VSA, my smart money indicator, seasonals and the cycle all saying the same thing.
Agreed…there is considerable buying into this spell of weakness.
In today’s EUR/USD forecast I am recommending that you stand aside. The pair appears to be in limbo, although the downside seems to be the most likely scenario, I am going to wait and see if it retraces up a bit more.
I’m sorry that I missed yesterday’s forecast as I was traveling and didn’t have access to a computer.
It looks like the cycle up was completed on August 4th, and the down cycle began on August 5th, which means that we are in a retrace in the middle of a down cycle.
In today’s EUR/USD forecast I am recommending to stand aside. It does appear that a bottom may be forming, but I don’t see the volume pattern to confirm this. Also the down cycle is still short in terms of the number of pips I expected it to run, which could mean there is more downside before it turns up. Since there are conflicting signals and it’s Friday I’m going to wait until next week to see what the EUR/USD does.
In today’s EUR/USD forecast I am looking for it to drop. The Trend is down and it appears that the cycle up completed on Friday. On the 4 hr. chart we have a couple of exhaustion bars, but we don’t have the No Demand bar that I normally wait for in order to confirm the top. I am going to hope that it appears sometime within the next two bars and if it does I will look to enter the short around the 1.3420-1.3430 level.
According to my time-based indicators this is likely to occur between 16:30 to 20:00 (GMT +7)
In today’s EUR/USD Forecast I am looking for continued down side. The trend is still down and we are in the middle of the down cycle. However I would like to see the 4 hr. Chart become over bought before entering. The VSA on the 4 hr. is indicating a topping pattern, so I am looking for an entry of about 1.3388 for entry.
On Monday’s forecast I correctly called the direction, but failed to notice the VSA topping pattern that took place on Friday. I probably still wouldn’t have gotten an entry since I was looking for it to pullback to 1.3420 before entering.
Gday bro. Just interested in your view on current CoT data. This suggests that the market is currently oversold and is getting ready to reverse. I’m with you and currently only looking at short opportunities but CoT data does worry me.
In today’s EUR/USD Forecast I am recommending to stand aside. The last few days have been fairly choppy but it looks like the cycle down may be complete or there could be a bit more to the downside, but not enough to merit entering the trade. The trend is still down, but I will need the pair to complete a cycle up and to get some exhaustion volume to the upside in order to consider taking a short. Since it is Friday I don’t expect an up cycle to complete until next week.
Trade Review- On Wednesday’s forecast I said-
“The trend is still down and we are in the middle of the down cycle. However I would like to see the 4 hr. Chart become over bought before entering. The VSA on the 4 hr. is indicating a topping pattern, so I am looking for an entry of about 1.3388 for entry.”
I was a bit off on the entry and the market topped out at 1.3414. I got an entry at 1.3410 since I waited for the 4 Hr. Chart to become overbought. The trade moved about 60 pips in my direction, but I only pulled out about 25 before it reversed.
Hi Bobbi- I look at COT data as well. The problem with COT is that they can be very early when entering to their positions, especially if you are using the real COT data and not some sort of Proxy since you can only read that on a weekly chart. Generally what you will see with COT (on a weekly chart) is that the trend will first start to weaken meaning the market will begin trading sideways. Then you will get Exhaustion selling followed by no supply and demand bars (volume spread analysis), then the market becomes oversold and it shoots up. So far we haven’t seen that so I just ignore COT until I see these things.
In today’s EUR/USD forecast I am recommending to stand aside. The down cycle looks to be complete, and the up cycle may have also completed on Friday. However I am not seeing the volume pattern that I want to on the 4 hr. chart yet. Also my time based indicators are saying that the drop likely won’t occur until tomorrow
I will look for the drop to occur on Tuesday between 8:00-11:00 am (GMT +7) and 19:00 to 21:00. I’m looking to enter around the 1.3420 level, but again only if I see the VSA pattern and if the 4 hr. chart becomes overbought.
For today’s EUR/USD forecast I am looking for the pair to pull back to the upside and then continue to drop. I would like to see the pair move up back at least to the 1.3340 level before considering the short and then only if I see exhaustion buying coming in on 4 hr. Chart. followed by a no demand candle and it becomes overbought. We are in the middle of the down cycle and the trend is down so I am only looking for short trades.
Trade Review- On Monday I said-
“I will look for the drop to occur on Tuesday between 8:00-11:00 am (GMT +7) and 19:00 to 21:00. I’m looking to enter around the 1.3420 level, but again only if I see the VSA pattern and if the 4 hr. chart becomes overbought.”
I was right about the direction of the trade, but it took off without me by dropping on Monday night rather than on Tuesday morning. Also it never made it to the 1.3420 level.
In today’s EUR/USD forecast I am going to recommend to stand aside once again. Although the pair looks poised to continue to drop my time-based indicator says that the downside momentum isn’t going to start until next Monday, and that today sideways to higher prices are likely. The indicator isn’t always right but I don’t like trading against it. Otherwise the VSA and cycle are both pointing down as is the trend and the pair is overbought on the 4 hr. If you entered the trade today you’d likely have to carry it over the weekend, which is something I hate to do.
My analysis for Wednesday was correct as far as the pair continuing to drop. However the price never got anywhere near my safe entry point so I didn’t get trade. I did manage to pull 40 pips out of the Pound Yen.
In today’s EUR/USD Forecast I am expecting markets to move up or sideways. It appears that the down cycle is complete, but the trend is still down, so I will continue playing the short side of the market. I would like to see the market make a retrace back to the 1.3250 level before I consider taking a trade, and only after I see exhaustion buying volume and the 4 hr. chart becoming overbought.
Unfortunately my time-based indicator is giving me nothing so you’ll just need to watch your 4 hr. charts.
In today’s EUR/USD forecast I am going to continue looking to the short side for a trade. It looks like the cycle up completed yesterday, but it only retraced to the 1.3214 level, which was no where near my entry of 1.3250. I will look for an entry around the 1.3200 level, but only if my 4 hr. chart is overbought and I have exhaustion bars for the VSA.
This market is pretty choppy right now, a result of the summer blahs, so hopefully the ranges will expand as we enter into September and the end of the vacation period.
In today’s EUR/USD forecast I am going to recommend standing aside again. The cycle up completed yesterday and made it to the 1.3220 level. However I missed the drop since my time indicators weren’t in agreement, but it otherwise looked like a perfect setup with the 4 hr. chart becoming over bought and VSA giving a climax bar.
We are in the middle of a down cycle, and the trend is still down, so it’s possible that we will see more of a drop today. However it is Friday and I don’t like holding over the weekends and my time indicator doesn’t see anything until 17:00, which is too late to enter a trade for my likes. I did manage to squeeze about 90 pips out of the EU/AUD this week, which I was happy with given how choppy the markets have been as of late. However I am hoping that with the start of September we will see an increase in volatility.
In today’s EUR/USD forecast I am looking for it to pullback and then continue to drop. We are in the middle of the down cycle and the trend is still down. Unfortunately the pair isn’t cooperating and it decided to start falling on Friday. I would like to see a retrace around the 1.3170 level along with exhaustion bars on the 4 hr. and I would like to see at least the 1 hr. become overbought, but preferably the 4 hr. chart.
In Today’s EUR/USD Forecast I will be looking for a pull back to the 1.3150 level and then for the pair to continue to drop. We are in the middle of a down cycle and the trend is still down as well. I’m not getting an indication about the time, but make sure to look for exhaustion buying on the 4 hr. and look for it to be overbought.
For today’s EUR/USD forecast I am going to recommend standing aside. The pair made a substantial drop yesterday and it looks like we are at or nearing the end of the cycle down. This means it will likely move up or go sideways for awhile. So I would kick back and get ready for the weekend.
Trade Review – On Wednesday I said -
“I will be looking for a pullback to the 1.3150 level and then for the pair to continue to drop. We are in the middle of a down cycle and the trend is still down as well.”
As you can see by the chart below I called the top within 9 pips and what followed was a 233 pip drop. I unfortunately got stopped out at +1 Pips because I use a time stop of 4 bars on the 4 hr chart. So while I didn’t make much off this trade I called the direction and level quite accurately and hope that some of you made something from it.
In today’s EUR/USD Forecast I am going to recommend looking for the short to set up. Although my time-based indicator says that the pair likely won’t start dropping until tomorrow or the next day, so it is unlikely we will get a trade today. I am looking at the 1.3012 area which is the Average Daily Range as the safe area to take the short.
With the beginning of September it looks like the range and volatility has started to pick up.
In today’s EUR/USD Forecast I am looking for it to continue its drop. I would like to first see it retrace back to the 1.2960 level however. There are already a couple of climax buying bars on the 4 hr. chart so I would like to see a No Demand bar in order to confirm the top and of course the pair needs to become over bought as well.
I’m going to look for this drop to happen around 19-21:00 (GMT+7). However there’s a good chance the pair will just move sideways until tomorrow around 16:00 (GMT+7) as well.
In Today’s EUR/USD Forecast I am going to look for the pair to continue dropping. However I would like to first see it retrace to around the 1.3985- 1.3995 level. The weekly cycle up does appear to have completed, but I would like to see the last bit of bank manipulation up that shows me the market is completely exhausted. Also the Monthly Cycle down has completed, which means the market will likely just move in a trading range for awhile before it drops again.
However I believe the range will be large enough to make some decent pips.
I will be looking for the drop to occur someplace around 19:00-21:00 (GMT+7)