Fundamentals in Kiwi (NZD) trading

Dear all,

I was involved in a project called TheFXSet with the site developer two years ago, for which I provided quite a bit of content. Sadly, we had to abandon the project and the site has been down ever since, meaning that there is quite a bit of content that is left unpublished or no longer visible.

Given this post that I put on @ria_rose 's thread yesterday, and given that others may also have questions about the Kiwi Dollar, I decided to post my article from May 2018 about some of the fundamentals that shape Kiwi Dollar movements through time.

I hope that you will find this useful.

Happy trading.

NZDUSDeventRiskForWC7thMay2018(FSani)FinalVersion.docx (694.6 KB)




Only one click!

Not another NZD thread. Guys come on. Keep it on one thread please.

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I tried in the past to merge NZD threads …

Sorry for posting yet another NZD thread!


once more…

Sorry I just saw this now @PipMeHappy! :open_mouth: I just downloaded it and I’ll also start reading it. Haha. :slight_smile: Aww. :frowning: Such a shame that the project did not push through. :open_mouth: I’m sure it would have had really good content like this. Just glancing at the pages right now and I’m sure it’ll be useful. Haha. :smiley:

Thanks for this PipMeHappy! :blush:

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Oof I’m personally wary of files that have to be downloaded. Is there a link version of this doc? :slight_smile:

I see you also got caught by the Kiwi cop @Rickster99 :joy:

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No, as I said, the website is no longer active so all that survives are my copies of the articles/videos.

It is not a large file…


Kiwi selling may have bottomed out but the fundamentals do not suggest that it is done yet:

The first image shows Kiwi futures (CME), Sept.2019 expiry: look at how strong selling volume (red bars) is matched by strong selling candles/trend in the currency;

the second image shows the Fonterra co-op group chart (candles) with strong selling AND strong selling volume, overlayed with the green line of NZD/CAD: see how both have moved strongly to the downside together, although this in itself does not tell what will happen next.

The final image (below) shows the relationship between the Kiwi central bank’s interest rate (OCR, blue line) and NZD/USD (candles): the latest round of cuts has been matched by what seemed like a big move from a range-bound currency to a heavily sold one:

Given all this, it looks like Kiwi pairs should continue selling unless conditions such as interest rate and the value of Fonterra tip back to the upside.

Finally, there is no Options Heatmap available on CME for the Kiwi, which is a shame as this would show you the strength of buy(calls) and sell(puts) orders lined up along the various price points for NZD/USD.

Good luck everyone.

Happy Trading



@ria_rose @ponponwei

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bumoung it up once more…

I will take a look at this pair tomorrow morning. Thank you for the tag! :grin:

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No problem, thanks for not making me feel too lonely up here!

@ponponwei @ria_rose


Seven weeks of straight selling, spanning over 500 pips (about 7.8% drop):

This NZD/USD chart makes you wonder when the selling will stop…

I am not trading this but I would be curious to know if you are already in a trade or maybe wanting in one but are scared it might suddenly turn around…

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Yeaaaaahhh I mean, it sounds awesome to jump in but I’m too risk-averse to do something about that crazy looking chart :joy: I’ll prob wait for some sort of reversal sign though then maybe a reversion to the mean??? Who knows. But I ain’t touching that right now :rofl:

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@ponponwei Very good thinking, best to wait and see what happens next… :slight_smile:

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Yeaaah! :smiley: I got a few pips from selling this pair! :smiley: (Only few cause there were moments that I was too scared to end up with even bigger losses. :sweat_smile:) But yeah, I checked out my charts right now and I’m thinking price might actually start to move the other direction soon. :thinking: What do you think? :smiley:

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This is from my daily right now. :smiley:

Hmmmm. Waiting for price to break through my descending channel. :thinking: I’ll then see how the next candle would do and maybe make my decision from there. :smiley:


Very good move!

NZD futures (CME, September expiry) show a strong buying volume for today,

but the last time this happened (8th August) the strong buying volume resulted

in a tiny day candle and another two and a half weeks of selling followed:

Therefore, it is inconclusive that a reversal is already in place.

What do you think?

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