Fundamentals in Kiwi (NZD) trading

Might hop in for a long trade. Still thinking about it though. Looking for more signs.

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Always a good idea!

How is your trading going? How long have you been doing it?

Up a few pips so far. We’ll see how it goes. Just started recently! Thanks for the heads up on this pair!

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Ah, so you are brand new!

I started in Sep. 2012, and I am just about getting there…but still on demo…

Some people are fast learners and also have a lot of capital to use up or find someone to teach them what not to do: none of those applied to me, thus I had to make all the mistakes in the world by myself before figuring out what works for me.

Does that make sense?

The Kiwi seems to have stalled…

The next RBNZ rate decision will be on 25th September…

Here is the futures side of the Kiwi, showing good buying volume

for the last three days and a move of about 100 pips up:

One can speculate on whether it will keep rising… or whether it is just a temporary halt

before more selling follows.

WHO KNOWS!

Makes two of us! :sweat_smile:

Oof. hope not more selling. Now thinking whether to put a breakeven SL. :thinking:

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@ponponwei Maybe a SL could help… it all depends on how you manage your positions.

Yes, that makes two, three, four, a million of us!

Closed it for a small profit! Not really one to push my luck. Although I did make a not so great decision of going long the USD (in USDCAD) even with NFP report coming in. Ah well.

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Well done with how you handled NZD.

Did NFPs catch you by surprise?

I mean I knew it was coming up but I didn’t bother looking into fundamentals and just straight looked at technicals. So that’s really all on me…

I think NFPs are too loaded with a hundred different interpretations of the data, plus also they are looked at by too many people and automated systems to have the power to move the market that they once did.

Besides, they are often a ‘big spike’ event that soon settles for no change to the overall direction of the currency pair involved.

Well done on not betting your house on them!

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Truly. Well, we’ll see if there’s a reversal next week. I need to start noting down these things :sweat_smile:

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I just read this, it is a good bit of reading on economic surprises (e.g. NFPs):

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2011/03/31/532701/trade-the-weather-not-consensus/

Interestingly,

the latest COT report, released today, looks at NZD data up to last Tuesday (3rd Sep.), showing a growing number of short contracts from both asset managers and leveraged funds:

However, from Tuesday we had a change of direction from the NZD, with a steep rise accompanied by strong daily buy volumes, all the way to Friday (today):

Furthermore, RSI applied to the daily chart shows how the currency kept dropping while RSI stayed at around the same level, signalling divergence: now that NZD has bounced up from oversold territory, RSI has once again moved in sync with the currency pair:

To sum it up: it looks like buying may be safe now, and possibly quite attractive.

:slight_smile:

Yeah really shouldn’t be trading economic events, or at least already have the directional bias in place from a longer timeframe perspective so that surprise events won’t really shock. I literally entered a day before NFP so I either entered just for that or don’t care what events do to the pair. I haven’t decided which yet :rofl:

Will be more than happy to check again on Monday! Thank you!

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No prob, @ponponwei

Have a good weekend!

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@ponponwei @ria_rose @kittytrader

It looks like the Kiwi is on the move higher, after all:

Screenshot is of Sep.-expiry CME Kiwi futures contracts…Green volume bars confirm the move higher.

PS: it is a daily chart: ignore the “1 min.” at the bottom.

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However…

The RBNZ is expected to.deliver two more rate cuts…

AND

Fonterra’s shares have been steadily dropping, in divergence with the NZD’s recent pick-up…

THEREFORE

Be cautious of going on an all-out buy on the Kiwi!

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Ughhh. :confounded: Too bad I set my stop loss too tight on this one! :frowning: Otherwise I might have been able to ride this move. :frowning:

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