FX Analysis by SGT Markets

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0713
1st Support: 1.0614
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Slightly lower than Expected

1st of September, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Slightly worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment
Worse than Expected

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted

23rd of November, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected

16th of September, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Higher than Expected

21st of September, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but strongly signaled it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improved further

27th of September, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (setting a new historical high since October 2007)

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

12th of October, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed Says Several FOMC Members Saw Rate Rise ‘Relatively Soon’

14th of October, Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
Retail Sales slightly better than Expected
Yellen noted an easy interest rate stance “could have costs that exceed the benefits by increasing the risk of financial instability or undermining price stability”

18th of October, CPI (U.S. Price Inflation)
Slightly Worse than Expected

19th of October, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Building Permits Better than Expected, Housing Starts Worse than Expected

20th of October, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

26th of October, New Home Sales
Worse than Expected but still in the Uptrend

27th of October, Core Durable Goods Orders
Total durable goods orders (which include transportation items) dropped 0.1% compared to economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.1%

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

GBP/USD

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.2626
2nd Resistance: 1.2785
1st Support: 1.2320
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7597
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7440
2nd Support: 0.7365

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

14th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review (it is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability)
Australia’s central bank released a financial stability review that highlighted some regional risks in apartment construction
Australian watchdog says bank ‘oligopoly’ needs more reform

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Additional turmoil undermines stability of Eurozone due to populist (and no-euro) probable swing in the Italian Government lead. Weekly Trend: Bearish
Break of 1.0518 will lead down to 1.0355
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0750
1st Support: 1.0518
2nd Support: 1.0355

EUR

Recent Facts:

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted

23rd of November, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected

29th of November, French GDP (Preliminary release) + Spanish CPI (Preliminary release) + German CPI (Preliminary release)
French GDP as Expected, Spanish CPI Higher than Expected, German CPI Slightly Worse than Expected

30th of November, German Retail Sales + German Unemployment Change
German Retail Sales Better than Expected, German Unemployment As Expected

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

Break of 1.2785 will lead over to 1.29, but keep an eye on 1.2850 because it is the upper pivotal level of the ranging room (“Area of Ranging” in the chart) started at the beginning of November. Everything above that level will start to be overbought in the short-term.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.2850
2nd Resistance: 1.2978
1st Support: 1.2458
2nd Support: 1.2320

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Weekly Trend is Oversold as a new consolidation around the pivotal level 0.7597 is highly probable. An over-extension up to 0.7735 is likely to happen as well by the next week.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

1st Resistance: 0.7525
2nd Resistance: 0.7597
1st Support: 0.7345
2nd Support: 0.7201

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Additional turmoil undermines stability of Eurozone due to populist (and no-euro) probable swing in the Italian Government lead.
Break of 1.0518 will lead down to 1.0355
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0750
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0679
2nd Support: 1.0555

GBP/USD

Break of 1.2785 will lead over to 1.29, but keep an eye on 1.2850 because it is the upper pivotal level of the ranging room (“Area of Ranging” in the chart) started at the beginning of November. Everything above that level will start to be overbought in the short-term.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.2850
2nd Resistance: 1.2978
1st Support: 1.2626
2nd Support: 1.2458

AUD/USD

Weekly Trend is Oversold as a new consolidation around the pivotal level 0.7597 is highly probable. An over-extension up to 0.7735 is likely to happen as well by the next week.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7525
2nd Resistance: 0.7597
1st Support: 0.7345
2nd Support: 0.7201

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Important week for Fed: USD Interest Rate may hike (or may not).
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months.
Additional long-term turmoil undermines stability of Eurozone due to populist (and “no-euro”) probable swing in the Italian Government lead.
Break of 1.067 already led below 1.0615. 1.0555 is an important Support. An eventual Break of 1.0555 will open room down to 1.0355

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0518

EUR

Recent Facts:

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted

23rd of November, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected

29th of November, French GDP (Preliminary release) + Spanish CPI (Preliminary release) + German CPI (Preliminary release)
French GDP as Expected, Spanish CPI Higher than Expected, German CPI Slightly Worse than Expected

30th of November, German Retail Sales + German Unemployment Change
German Retail Sales Better than Expected, German Unemployment As Expected

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

Important week for Fed: USD Interest Rate may hike (or may not).
UK Supreme Court President said (on the 8th of December) it will give Article 50 case judgement “as soon as possible”.
Break of 1.2626 will much probably lead down to 1.2450 area.

On the other hand, Break of 1.2785 will lead over to 1.29, but keep an eye on 1.2850 because it is the upper pivotal level of the ranging room (“Area of Ranging” in the chart) started at the beginning of November. Everything above that level will start to be overbought in the short-term.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2850
2nd Resistance: 1.2978
1st Support: 1.2626
2nd Support: 1.2458

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Important week for Fed: USD Interest Rate may hike (or may not).
Weekly Trend is Bullish until as a new consolidation around the pivotal level 0.7597: a Break of 0.7515 area will probably lead to a test in area 0.76.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 0.7525
2nd Resistance: 0.7597
1st Support: 0.7445
2nd Support: 0.7345

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Important week for Fed: USD Interest Rate may hike (or may not).
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months.
Additional long-term turmoil undermines stability of Eurozone due to populist (and “no-euro”) probable swing in the Italian Government lead.
Break of 1.067 already led below 1.0615. 1.0555 is an important Support. An eventual Break of 1.0555 will open room down to 1.0355

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0518

EUR

Recent Facts:

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted

23rd of November, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected

29th of November, French GDP (Preliminary release) + Spanish CPI (Preliminary release) + German CPI (Preliminary release)
French GDP as Expected, Spanish CPI Higher than Expected, German CPI Slightly Worse than Expected

30th of November, German Retail Sales + German Unemployment Change
German Retail Sales Better than Expected, German Unemployment As Expected

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

Eyes on today release: Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

Important week for Fed: USD Interest Rate may hike (or may not).
Yesterday’s rumors about eventual BoE interest rate hike worked in the short-term but they may be empty in the substance.
Break of 1.2626 will much probably lead down to 1.2450 area.

On the other hand, Break of 1.2785 will lead over to 1.29, but keep an eye on 1.2850 because it is the upper pivotal level of the ranging room (“Area of Ranging” in the chart) started at the beginning of November. Everything above that level will start to be overbought in the short-term.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2850
2nd Resistance: 1.2978
1st Support: 1.2626
2nd Support: 1.2458

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: CPI (UK Price Inflation)

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Important week for Fed: USD Interest Rate may hike (or may not).
Weekly Trend is Bullish until a new consolidation around the pivotal level 0.7597: a Break of 0.7515 area will probably lead to a test in area 0.76.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 0.7525
2nd Resistance: 0.7597
1st Support: 0.7445
2nd Support: 0.7345

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.
European Central Bank extended its asset purchase program for additional nine months while U.S. economy seen in good progress for the next semester.
Additional long-term turmoil undermines stability of Eurozone due to populist (and “no-euro”) probable swing in the Italian Government lead.

As we wrote in the previous analysis, Break of 1.0555 opens room down to 1.0355. And now there is probably room for a small correction.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0555
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0355
2nd Support: 1.0250

EUR

Recent Facts:

11th of October, ZEW Economic Sentiment (A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism; the reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Significantly Better Than Expected (59.5)

14th of October, Spanish Inflation + Italian Inflation + Eurozone Trade Balance
Spanish Inflation slightly lower than Expected, Italian Inflation as Expected, Trade Balance better than Expected

24th of October, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

25th of October, ECB President Mario Draghi Speech
Today current Interest Rates are protecting the interests of savers and States: Central Bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such a low levels for an excessively long time

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted

23rd of November, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected

29th of November, French GDP (Preliminary release) + Spanish CPI (Preliminary release) + German CPI (Preliminary release)
French GDP as Expected, Spanish CPI Higher than Expected, German CPI Slightly Worse than Expected

30th of November, German Retail Sales + German Unemployment Change
German Retail Sales Better than Expected, German Unemployment As Expected

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

2nd of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + FOMC Interest Rates Statement
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Worse than Expected
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike

3rd of November, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Building Permits + Housing Starts

GBP/USD

Break of 1.2626 already led down to 1.2450 area, as we wrote in the previous analysis. Now there is room for a slow correction up to 1.26.

On the other hand, eventual Break of 1.2785 will lead over to 1.29, but keep an eye on 1.2850 because it is the upper pivotal level of the ranging room (“Area of Ranging” in the chart) started at the beginning of November. Everything above that level will start to be overbought in the short-term.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2626
2nd Resistance: 1.2850
1st Support: 1.2458
2nd Support: 1.2320

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

15th of December, Retail Sales + Interest Rate Decision
Retail Sales Slightly Better than Expected, Interest Rates unchanged and no indications regarding further changes

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Australian Job Market keeps the good pace and OPEC’s meetings for Oil production cut are not that disappointing.
Weekly Trend is still Oversold until a new consolidation around the pivotal level 0.7597: a Break of 0.7515 area will probably lead to a test in area 0.76.
On the other hand, eventual confirmed Break of the current Support (0.7345 area) opens room down to 0.72 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7525
2nd Resistance: 0.7597
1st Support: 0.7345
2nd Support: 0.7201

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects)
Worse than Expected

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Australia Gross Domestic Product
As Expected

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.
European Central Bank extended its asset purchase program for additional nine months while U.S. economy seen in good progress for the next semester.
Additional long-term turmoil undermines stability of Eurozone due to populist (and “no-euro”) probable swing in the Italian Government lead.

As we wrote in the previous analysis, Break of 1.0555 opens room down to 1.0355. And now there is probably room for a small correction (first target: 1.051).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.0555
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0355
2nd Support: 1.0250

EUR

Recent Facts:

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted

23rd of November, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected

29th of November, French GDP (Preliminary release) + Spanish CPI (Preliminary release) + German CPI (Preliminary release)
French GDP as Expected, Spanish CPI Higher than Expected, German CPI Slightly Worse than Expected

30th of November, German Retail Sales + German Unemployment Change
German Retail Sales Better than Expected, German Unemployment As Expected

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

16th of December, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Break of 1.2626 already led down to 1.2450 area, as we wrote in the previous analysis. Now we expect a week of consolidation around 1.2490.

On the other hand, eventual Break of 1.2785 will lead over to 1.29, but keep an eye on 1.2850 because it is the upper pivotal level of the ranging room (“Area of Ranging” in the chart) started at the beginning of November. Everything above that level will start to be overbought in the short-term.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2626
2nd Resistance: 1.2850
1st Support: 1.2458
2nd Support: 1.2320

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

15th of December, Retail Sales + Interest Rate Decision
Retail Sales Slightly Better than Expected, Interest Rates unchanged and no indications regarding further changes

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Australian Job Market keeps the good pace and OPEC’s meetings for Oil production cut are not that disappointing. Only an eventual downgrade of the rating might change this prospective.

Weekly Trend is still oversold until a new consolidation around the pivotal level 0.7597: a Break of 0.7515 area will probably lead to a test in area 0.76.
On the other hand, Break of 0.7345 area asks consolidation in 0.72 area first.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7345
2nd Resistance: 0.7440
1st Support: 0.7201
2nd Support: 0.7133

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Janet Yellen on 19th of December said the job market in the U.S. is now the “strongest” in nearly a decade.

European Central Bank extended its asset purchase program for additional nine months while U.S. economy seen in good progress for the next semester.
Additional long-term turmoil undermines stability of Eurozone due to populist (and “no-euro”) probable swing in the Italian Government lead.

As we wrote in the previous analysis, Break of 1.0555 opens room down to 1.0355. And now there is probably room for a slow correction (first target: 1.051).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0555
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0355
2nd Support: 1.0250

EUR

Recent Facts:

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted

23rd of November, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected

29th of November, French GDP (Preliminary release) + Spanish CPI (Preliminary release) + German CPI (Preliminary release)
French GDP as Expected, Spanish CPI Higher than Expected, German CPI Slightly Worse than Expected

30th of November, German Retail Sales + German Unemployment Change
German Retail Sales Better than Expected, German Unemployment As Expected

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

16th of December, Building Permits + Housing Starts
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Janet Yellen on 19th of December said the job market in the U.S. is now the “strongest” in nearly a decade.
Break of 1.2626 already led down to 1.2450 area. Now we expect a correction around 1.2490.

On the other hand, eventual Break of 1.2785 will lead over to 1.29, but keep an eye on 1.2850 because it is the upper pivotal level of the ranging room (“Area of Ranging” in the chart) started at the beginning of November. Everything above that level will start to be overbought in the short-term.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2458
2nd Resistance: 1.2626
1st Support: 1.2320
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

15th of December, Retail Sales + Interest Rate Decision
Retail Sales Slightly Better than Expected, Interest Rates unchanged and no indications regarding further changes

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Oil prices expected rise in anticipation of tighter 2017 market. Only an eventual downgrade of the rating might change the prospective regarding AUD.

On the one hand, Break of 0.7345 area asks consolidation in 0.72 area first.
On the other hand, Weekly Trend is still oversold until a new consolidation around the pivotal level 0.7597: a Break of 0.7515 area will probably lead to a test in area 0.76.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7345
2nd Resistance: 0.7440
1st Support: 0.7201
2nd Support: 0.7133

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

A slow up-correction expected (first target 1.046; second target 1.051).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0518
2nd Resistance: 1.0555
1st Support: 1.0355
2nd Support: 1.0250

EUR

Recent Facts:

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted

23rd of November, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected

29th of November, French GDP (Preliminary release) + Spanish CPI (Preliminary release) + German CPI (Preliminary release)
French GDP as Expected, Spanish CPI Higher than Expected, German CPI Slightly Worse than Expected

30th of November, German Retail Sales + German Unemployment Change
German Retail Sales Better than Expected, German Unemployment As Expected

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

Break of 1.2626 already led down to 1.23 area. Now we expect a correction around 1.2490.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2458
2nd Resistance: 1.2626
1st Support: 1.2320
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

15th of December, Retail Sales + Interest Rate Decision
Retail Sales Slightly Better than Expected, Interest Rates unchanged and no indications regarding further changes

Eyes on today release: GDP

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Oil prices expected rise in anticipation of tighter 2017 market. Only an eventual downgrade of the rating might change the whole outlook regarding AUD.

Break of 0.7345 area is producing a good consolidation in 0.72 area. A correction will put pressure to 0.734 area.
An eventual Break of 0.7515 area will probably lead to a test in area 0.76.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7345
2nd Resistance: 0.7440
1st Support: 0.7201
2nd Support: 0.7133

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

A slow up-correction started a week ago as expected. First target 1.046 hit already; second target 1.051 possible.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0518
2nd Resistance: 1.0555
1st Support: 1.0399
2nd Support: 1.0355

EUR

Recent Facts:

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted

23rd of November, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected

29th of November, French GDP (Preliminary release) + Spanish CPI (Preliminary release) + German CPI (Preliminary release)
French GDP as Expected, Spanish CPI Higher than Expected, German CPI Slightly Worse than Expected

30th of November, German Retail Sales + German Unemployment Change
German Retail Sales Better than Expected, German Unemployment As Expected

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

Break of 1.2626 already led down to 1.23 area. Next support is in area 1.216. On the other side, we expect a relevant correction to start back, up to 1.246.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2458
2nd Resistance: 1.2626
1st Support: 1.2320
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

15th of December, Retail Sales + Interest Rate Decision
Retail Sales Slightly Better than Expected, Interest Rates unchanged and no indications regarding further changes

23rd of December, GDP
On the whole As Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Oil prices expected rise in anticipation of tighter 2017 market. Only an eventual downgrade of the rating might change the whole outlook regarding AUD.

Break of 0.7345 area is producing a good consolidation in 0.72 area. Now an up-correction will likely put pressure to 0.734 area back again.
An eventual Break of 0.7515 area will probably lead to a test in area 0.76.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7345
2nd Resistance: 0.7440
1st Support: 0.7205
2nd Support: 0.7142

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

A slow up-correction started a week ago as expected. First target 1.046 hit already; second target 1.051 possible.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0518
2nd Resistance: 1.0555
1st Support: 1.0399
2nd Support: 1.0355

EUR

Recent Facts:

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted

23rd of November, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected

29th of November, French GDP (Preliminary release) + Spanish CPI (Preliminary release) + German CPI (Preliminary release)
French GDP as Expected, Spanish CPI Higher than Expected, German CPI Slightly Worse than Expected

30th of November, German Retail Sales + German Unemployment Change
German Retail Sales Better than Expected, German Unemployment As Expected

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Pending Home Sales

GBP/USD

Break of 1.2626 already led down to 1.23 area. Next support is in area 1.216. On the other side, we expect a relevant correction to start back, up to 1.246.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2458
2nd Resistance: 1.2626
1st Support: 1.2320
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

15th of December, Retail Sales + Interest Rate Decision
Retail Sales Slightly Better than Expected, Interest Rates unchanged and no indications regarding further changes

23rd of December, GDP
On the whole As Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Oil prices expected rise in anticipation of tighter 2017 market. Only an eventual downgrade of the rating might change the whole outlook regarding AUD.

Break of 0.7345 area is producing a good consolidation in 0.72 area. Now an up-correction will likely put pressure to 0.734 area back again.
An eventual Break of 0.7515 area will probably lead to a test in area 0.76.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7345
2nd Resistance: 0.7440
1st Support: 0.7205
2nd Support: 0.7142

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

A slow up-correction started a week ago as expected and got explosive in recent thin trading sessions. First target 1.046 hit already and second target 1.051 much probable.

Now we expect a consolidation around 1.050.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0555
2nd Resistance: 1.0610
1st Support: 1.0462
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted

23rd of November, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected

29th of November, French GDP (Preliminary release) + Spanish CPI (Preliminary release) + German CPI (Preliminary release)
French GDP as Expected, Spanish CPI Higher than Expected, German CPI Slightly Worse than Expected

30th of November, German Retail Sales + German Unemployment Change
German Retail Sales Better than Expected, German Unemployment As Expected

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: German Unemployment + German CPI

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

We expect a possible correction to move up to 1.246 area (first) and 1.267 (finally).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2458
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2295
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

15th of December, Retail Sales + Interest Rate Decision
Retail Sales Slightly Better than Expected, Interest Rates unchanged and no indications regarding further changes

23rd of December, GDP
On the whole As Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Support in area 0.72 worked fine: we still expect an up-correction likely to put pressure to 0.734 area back again.
An eventual Break of 0.735 area will probably lead to a test in area 0.7440.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7345
2nd Resistance: 0.7440
1st Support: 0.7205
2nd Support: 0.7142

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Last 10 days were all about stupid and unreasonable fake spikes, either up or down. Now, back to technical analysis, we expect a consolidation over 1.04 and regain of our first target 1.046 (hit already around the end of 2016).

Eyes on second target 1.051, much probable unless Fed will concretely boost a hawkish sentiment (for the Greenback) regarding an eventual upcoming tightening monetary policy (for the USA). This week is a nonfarm payroll (and unemployment change) week, so a bad reading can be of all advantage for the EUR.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.0555
2nd Resistance: 1.0610
1st Support: 1.0399
2nd Support: 1.0355

EUR

Recent Facts:

28th of October, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

2nd of November, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

14th of November, Industrial Production
Better than Expected

15th of November, German GDP (preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Contrasted

23rd of November, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
German Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected

29th of November, French GDP (Preliminary release) + Spanish CPI (Preliminary release) + German CPI (Preliminary release)
French GDP as Expected, Spanish CPI Higher than Expected, German CPI Slightly Worse than Expected

30th of November, German Retail Sales + German Unemployment Change
German Retail Sales Better than Expected, German Unemployment As Expected

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Eurozone CPI

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of September, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

7th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Slightly Worse than Expected

28th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + ISM Manufacturing Employment
Better than Expected

4th of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

11th of November, Michigan Consumer Expectations/Sentiment
Better than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: FOMC Meeting Minutes

GBP/USD

Eyes on the 2 pivotal levels of the week: on the one hand a Break of 1.217 would open the ground down to 1.19 area; on the other hand, a Break of 1.23 will trigger the correction we still expect up to 1.246 area (first) and 1.267 (finally).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2295
2nd Resistance: 1.2458
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

25th of October, Bank of England Gov Carney Speech
BoE will not change how it conducts monetary policy unless Parliament changes its remit but he doesn’t think Prime Minister is asking for a change. Carney added they need to take into account recent FX move (triggered by the timing about article 50 to leave EU and not by BoE decisions)

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, Manufacturing Production
Industrial Production Worse than Expected, Manufacturing Production Better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

15th of December, Retail Sales + Interest Rate Decision
Retail Sales Slightly Better than Expected, Interest Rates unchanged and no indications regarding further changes

23rd of December, GDP
On the whole As Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

Eyes on today release: Construction PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Support in area 0.72 worked fine and we still are in a Support Zone: we still expect an up-correction likely to put pressure to 0.734 area back again.
An eventual Break of 0.735 area will probably lead to a test in area 0.7440.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7345
2nd Resistance: 0.7440
1st Support: 0.7205
2nd Support: 0.7142

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of October, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Rate Statement
Central Bank keeps Interest Rate unchanged but cites concerns on growth over a strong currency, building and housing data showing a continued negative trend

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

U.S. unemployment rate ticks up in December, NFPs disappointed. Out of the last 6 months, 4 NFPs were below the expectations. We expect a consolidation in area 1.061.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0462

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

GBP/USD

U.S. unemployment rate ticks up in December, NFPs disappointed. We are out of consolidating in area 1.23 because we are testing an important Support in area 1.217. An eventual Break of 1.217 would open the ground down to 1.19 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2458
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2295
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

U.S. unemployment rate ticks up in December, NFPs disappointed.

Finally out of the Support in area 0.72 our target (0.734 area, as per previous commentaries) finally hit.

An eventual Break of 0.735 area will probably lead to a test in area 0.7440.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7345
2nd Resistance: 0.7440
1st Support: 0.7205
2nd Support: 0.7142

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

U.S. unemployment rate ticks up in December, NFPs disappointed. Out of the last 6 months, 4 NFPs were below the expectations. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we expect a consolidation in area 1.061 and this is occurring right now.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0462

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

GBP/USD

U.S. unemployment rate ticks up in December, NFPs disappointed. Hard Brexit scenario weighs on the future of GBP. So, we are testing an important Support in area 1.217. An eventual Break of 1.217 would open the ground down to 1.19 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2295
2nd Resistance: 1.2458
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

U.S. unemployment rate ticks up in December, NFPs disappointed. Australian Retail Sales disappointing. China Inflation lower than Expected (while Productions Prices at the fastest pace in 5 years). The optimistic expectation on Oil prices may keep on pushing AUD upwards, as long as it lasts.

The Break of 0.735 area will probably lead to a test in area 0.7440.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7345
2nd Resistance: 0.7440
1st Support: 0.7205
2nd Support: 0.7142

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Eyes on today U.S Retail Sales and Michigan readings.

Consolidation in area 1.061 occurring right now. Now we are a Resistance zone, so we expect some struggles and a correction down.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0462

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

Eyes on today release: Retail Sales

GBP/USD

Eyes on today U.S Retail Sales and Michigan readings.

We are testing an important Support in area 1.217. An eventual Break of 1.217 would open the ground down to 1.19 area. On the other hand, a Break of 1.23 would give room to an expansion towards area 1.246.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2295
2nd Resistance: 1.2458
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Right now we are in an evident Overbought setup.
Chinese Trade Balance suffers and China Inflation lower than Expected (while Productions Prices at the fastest pace in 5 years). Eyes on today U.S Retail Sales and Michigan readings.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, the Break of 0.735 area led to a test in area 0.7440. Now we are testing a resistance in 0.748 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7525
2nd Resistance: 0.7597
1st Support: 0.7440
2nd Support: 0.7345

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Technical setup is still longish but several speeches will occur this week (starting from tomorrow). Fed’s Yellen will speak as well as other Fed’s members. EU will release the statement regarding interest rates. Also, UK Prime Minister Theresa May will have a speech today, probably addressing solutions to the “passporting problem”, and this can have a substantial impact on this pair too.

EU consumer prices rising at the fastest annual pace since 2013. U.S Inflation Producers Higher than Expected.

U.S. Treasury Yields rose on view Trump’s fiscal stimulus plans could push inflation higher and put upward pressure on interest rates. The yield on the 30-year Treasury rose above 3% for the first time since the end of 2015 shortly after Trump’s triumph.

Consolidation in area 1.061 occurring right now. Now we are a Resistance zone, so we expect some struggles and a correction down.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0462

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Focus on UK Prime Minister May’s Speech today. Highly volatile markets expected.

The test of the Support in area 1.217 failed. Break of 1.217 is opening the ground down to 1.19 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2169
2nd Resistance: 1.2295
1st Support: 1.1968
2nd Support: 1.1760

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: UK Prime Minister May speaks

USD

Recent Facts:

see above.

AUD/USD

Right now we are in an evident Overbought setup but AUD is bought as “safe haven” during these days preceding important speeches in Europe (interest rates), USA (Trump will speak on Friday) and UK (Theresa May will speak today). U.S Inflation Producers Higher than Expected.

Chinese Trade Balance suffers and China Inflation lower than Expected (while Productions Prices at the fastest pace in 5 years).

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, the Break of 0.735 area led to a test in area 0.7440. Now we are testing a resistance in 0.748 area. En eventual overshoot can hit 0.76 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7525
2nd Resistance: 0.7597
1st Support: 0.7440
2nd Support: 0.7345

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

ECB President Draghi will speak today while Fed’s Chair Yellen stated that as the economy approaches our objectives, it makes sense to gradually reduce the level of monetary policy support.
Eyes also on Trump’s speech.

EU consumer prices rising at the fastest annual pace since 2013. U.S Inflation Producers Higher than Expected.

The new trading environment between the UK and the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

Consolidation in area 1.062 occurring right now. Now we are a Resistance zone, so we expect some struggles and a correction down.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0462

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

Eyes on today release: ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference

USD

Recent Facts:

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Trump Speech

GBP/USD

Job Market doing confirmedly well.
Final deal about Brexit will be decided by both the house of Commons and the house of Lords. In terms of the deal, she still assumes that both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

Attention to Trump speech.

The test of the Support in area 1.217 failed. Break of 1.217 opened the ground down to 1.19 area from where it bounced violently up on the Speech by UK Prime Minister. Next target: 1.245 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2458
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

Seea above.

AUD/USD

Employment Change rose again more than expected. Attention to Trump speech. Fed’s Chair Yellen stated that as the economy approaches our objectives, it makes sense to gradually reduce the level of monetary policy support.

Chinese Trade Balance suffers and China Inflation lower than Expected (while Productions Prices at the fastest pace in 5 years). Tomorrow Chinese GDP data released.

Now we are testing a resistance in 0.752 area. En eventual overshoot can hit 0.76 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7525
2nd Resistance: 0.7597
1st Support: 0.7440
2nd Support: 0.7345

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Speaking at a conference in San Francisco, Yellen said that “allowing the economy to run markedly and persistently ‘hot’ would be risky and unwise,” before adding: “I consider it prudent to adjust the stance of monetary policy gradually over time.”

ECB President stated: Rates seen at current or lower levels for extended period of time. No convincing upward trend in underlying inflation. Headline inflation likely to pick up further near term. Underlying inflation expected to rise more gradually medium term.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0679
2nd Support: 1.0610

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

Eyes on today release: ECB President Draghi Speech

USD

Recent Facts:

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

The U.K. Office for National Statistics said on Friday that retail sales declined 1.9% in December, confounding expectations for a 0.1% slip. Retail sales fell 0.1% in November, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated 0.2% rise.

Final deal about Brexit will be decided by both the house of Commons and the house of Lords. In terms of the deal, she still assumes that both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2458
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2295
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

China GDP grows more than Expected. Chinese Trade Balance suffers and China Inflation lower than Expected (while Productions Prices at the fastest pace in 5 years). The data eased concerns over a slowdown in the world’s second biggest economy, although worries surrounding the country’s growing debt persisted. AUD/USD traded at 0.7560, down 0.01% late on Friday after posting gains earlier in the day with Australia China’s biggest export partner.

Australia Employment Change rose again more than expected.

Now we are testing a resistance in 0.756 area. En eventual overshoot can hit 0.76 area in order to exhaust the overbought impulse.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7597
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

The dollar was trading close to seven-week lows against a basket of the other major currencies on Tuesday, as concerns over President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies continued to dominate market sentiment.
The weakness in the dollar reflected concerns over a lack of clarity on Trump’s economic policies and fears that his protectionist stance could hit corporate profits and act as a drag on growth.
We expect EUR/USD to fall down on 1.06 area.

ECB President stated: Rates seen at current or lower levels for extended period of time. No convincing upward trend in underlying inflation. Headline inflation likely to pick up further near term. Underlying inflation expected to rise more gradually medium term.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0679
2nd Support: 1.0610

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

UK Court said PM Theresa May must present Brexit Bill. Supreme Court Rules Brexit trigger needs Parliamentary Vote. Pound fell as Court Ruling seen as no brake on Brexit.

BOE Governor Carney will speak today and this may create relevant adjustments.

Probably Trump’s setup will create a positive resonance in the Economy of UK. We are neutral on GBP/USD, even though we are generally bullish on GBP.

Final deal about Brexit will be decided by both the house of Commons and the house of Lords. In terms of the deal, she still assumes that both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2295
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Earlier Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016, disappointing expectations for an increase of 0.7%.

Now we are testing a resistance in 0.756 area. We project an overshoot on 0.76-0.77 area in order to exhaust the overbought impulse.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7597
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

see above.