EUR/USD
Eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate.
Very good ISM Non-Manufacturing data from the U.S. Also U.S. Job market and ADP Nonfarm Employment Change confirmed in good uptrend, also U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected.
German Unemployment better than expected and last EU preliminary PMIs surpassed expectations, indicating that economic activity picked up at the end of the third quarter, back to their recent multi-year highs. But last CPI (inflation) data across all the Europe (Germany included) ticked worse than expected while last U.S. GDP and U.S. job market confirmed again better than expected.
Catalonia planned to hold a referendum on independence from Spain on Sunday 1 October: the referendum is deemed unconstitutional by the Spanish Constitutional Court so Spanish police moved to prevent independence vote. Spain is into its worst constitutional crisis in decades.
Trump tax plan, coupled with upbeat U.S. durable goods orders, helped give an added lift to the greenback, which has benefited from rekindled expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again by year-end.
Germany’s election showed surging support for a far-right party that left Chancellor Angela Merkel scrambling to form a governing coalition. Building a coalition could take months as the three-way tie-up has not been tested at national level.
Now, a confirmed breakout of 1.175 will likely lead to a test of 1.1655 Support area (as already written previously).
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.1756
2nd Resistance: 1.1856
1st Support: 1.1655
2nd Support: 1.1590
GBP/USD
Eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate.
In the U.S., both ISM Non-Manufacturing and ADP Nonfarm Employment Change confirmed in good uptrend, also U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected.
Uncertainty about May’s Brexit strategy is taking its toll on the Pound, down to a near 1-month low against the greenback. Last UK Services PMI came slightly better than expected, while last Construction PMI hit a 12-month low and last UK Manufacturing PMI also worse than expected.
BoE Governor Carney noted that the majority of the MPC were in agreement that the bank needed to raise rates if the economy stayed on track. UK GDP data ticked down, confirming an ongoing post-Brexit depression in the real conditions of the UK economy.
Moody’s has downgraded the UK’s credit rating to Aa2. Outlook to stable after the downgrade. Moody’s sees growth of 1% this year, and doesn’t expect growth to recover to historic trends “over the coming years.”
Important Support around 1.32 area violated means room down to 1.30. Our main Support is 1.2980.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3285
1st Support: 1.3099
2nd Support: 1.2980
AUD/USD
Eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate.
Australia Retail Sales change came negative, disappointing economists projections after a strike of good data from the U.S.
Crude Oil prices rebound after a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. Stockpiles.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate steady at a record low 1.50% as expected and signaled to markets that the economy continues to improve. Australia reported that building approvals rose 0.4% on month in August, below the 1.1% gain expected, while private house approvals fell 0.6%, compared to a 1.0% gain in July.
Trump tax plan, coupled with upbeat U.S. durable goods orders, helped give an added lift to the greenback, which has benefited from rekindled expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again by year-end.
Australia reported improved job market and interestingly good home loans data for July, but Trade Balance and Retail Sales worse than expected, and GDP on the downbeat too.
We are Neutral from Bearish as 0.774 represents a strong demand area from where price will bounce up in a small correction and consolidation phase.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7828
2nd Resistance: 0.7916
1st Support: 0.7735
2nd Support: 0.7680
https://sgtmarkets.com/en/market-news/forex-analysis-20171006/