#Dax30 fell 0.17% on Friday.
It was downgraded by the food industry, the processing sector of basic raw materials and communal services. The winner of the day was the action of Continental company which grew 1.35%.
#Crude Oil
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil remained largely unchanged. Baker Hughes’ data on the number of oil wells in the United States showed a decrease of seven bore holes, a significant drop. Also, the growth of demand for refinery for crude oil. During Asian and early European trading, the price of crude oil rose by 0.19% and this morning was traded for $ 50.57 per barrel.
#Gold this morning was traded for $ 1309 for a fine ounce.
#The yen seems weaker against the dollar by 0.42%.
EUR/USD
Eyes on today German ZEW data and U.S. Building Permits. The focus for this week is, on the one hand, the Fed’s policy meeting of tomorrow and, on the other hand, ECB President Draghi’s speeches scheduled next days.
Markets are now pricing in a more than 50 percent chance of a Fed hike by the end of the year, up from only around a 40 percent chance less than a week ago.
During his last ECB Press Conference, President Draghi said that growth forecasts for the Eurozone will keep on the good pace though inflation is doing worse than expected. Growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).
Increasing wages (under solid Employment Change figures) and improving Trade Balance are the latest good news for the EUR.
The greenback regained strength after Paul Ryan (U.S. House of Representatives Speaker) said that a tax plan is set to be released next days and after Trump succeeded to raise the debt ceiling.
On the other hand, last U.S. industrial and manufacturing production unexpectedly fell in August and U.S. producer price inflation increased less than expected. In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department said last retail sales change was surprisingly negative.
If 1.1856 will be clearly violated then we see room down to the next Support area (1.176). In the opposite case, 1.20 area will be definitely violated and we see room up to 1.21 area.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1990
2nd Resistance: 1.2080
1st Support: 1.1856
2nd Support: 1.1756
GBP/USD
Last Carney’s speech was about monetary policy that may have to “move in order to stand still” due to possibility that global equilibrium interest rates are rising. De-integration effects of Brexit are likely to be inflationary but any rate hikes are expected to be gradual and limited.
He added that any loss of trade openness with EU after Brexit is unlikely to be immediately compensated by ties with new partners.
The Fed is seen likely to announce a plan to start shrinking its balance sheet. Markets are now pricing in a more than 50 percent chance of a Fed hike by the end of the year, up from only around a 40 percent chance less than a week ago. The dollar rose following strong gains in U.S. treasury yields amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will reaffirm its plan to hike rates at least once this year.
Brexit slowing negotiations (the fourth round of Brexit negotiations, scheduled for September 25, nears and the volume of complaints coming from the financial services sector regarding the lack of progress is growing), terroristic attacks and upcoming German elections are undermining the volatile bullish stamina of the GBP.
As we previously wrote, 1.36 is a definitive very strong Resistance as GBP is overbought: 1.3460 under test and now eyes on USD.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3610
2nd Resistance: 1.3670
1st Support: 1.3460
2nd Support: 1.3362
AUD/USD
Australia reported its house price index for the second quarter jumped 1.9%, compared with a 1.1% gain seen. The Reserve Bank of Australia repeated that monetary policy is expected steady for “some time” in the minutes of its September rate review.
The Fed is seen likely to announce a plan to start shrinking its balance sheet. Markets are now pricing in a more than 50 percent chance of a Fed hike by the end of the year, up from only around a 40 percent chance less than a week ago.
Australia reported improved job market and interestingly good home loans data for July, but Trade Balance and Retail Sales worse than expected, and GDP on the downbeat too.
Last Australian Manufacturing Index was better than expected and private new capital expenditure for the second quarter jumped 0.8%, well above a 0.3% gain seen. Also Building Approvals and Construction Work Done better than expected.
On the other hand, last U.S. industrial and manufacturing production unexpectedly fell in August and U.S. producer price inflation increased less than expected. In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department said last retail sales change was surprisingly negative.
As we wrote previously, a re-test in area 0.798 will lead down to the main Support in area 0.792.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.8034
2nd Resistance: 0.8130
1st Support: 0.7916
2nd Support: 0.7828
#FED interest rate decision is Today.
US Federal Reserve monetary policy makers will return back into the spotlight this week as they are getting set to announce their latest interest rate decision. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday (September 19- 20) at 18:00 GMT.
The US Fed continues to keep many investors in suspense, as they have not yet given a clear signal whether will increase interest rate once again by the end of the year. The US Fed benchmark interest rate stands currently within the range of 1.00%- 1.25%, with more than a 50.00% chance that the range could go up to 1.25%- 1.50% in December.
Previous Federal reserve meeting was held on July 26, and Fed decided to kept interest rate on current level of 1,25%.
In following statement Federal Reserve said that it planned to start shrinking its balance sheet “relatively soon”. As reaction currency pair, EUR/USD rose 1.12%, while gold also was increased by 1.24%.
_What’s next for EUR/USD? _
Don’t miss out on this
top trading opportunity!
#Dax30
Dax30 stagnated on Tuesday by adding symbolic 0.02%. The winner of the day was the share of Dojce Telekom, which grew by 3.12%. This morning, the producer price index in Germany was above expectations.
#EUR/USD
Fed’s projections point to three rate hikes in 2018, two in 2019 and one in 2020 and to shrinking balance sheet in October following schedule it laid out in July. Inflation to remain somewhat below 2 pct in near term, to stabilize around 2 pct goal over medium term. Job gains have remained solid, household spending expanding at moderate rate. Business spending has picked up in recent quarters
Near-term risks to the economy appear “roughly balanced” and if conditions were to weaken, would also consider balance sheet reinvestment. Fed vote in favour of policy was unanimous.
Today we will have chance to hear from EBC President Draghi.
According to the latest news headlines hitting the wires, citing reliable sources, ECB policy makers disagree on whether to set a firm end-date for bond-buying program in October.
Some elements of ECB decision could be put off until Dec.;
Concerns over Euro strength is leading to uncertainty and divides within ECB council;
Some ECB rate setters want to be able to extend or expand buys if needed.
German ZEW data better than expectations, U.S. House Market on the upbeat too.
During his last ECB Press Conference, President Draghi said that growth forecasts for the Eurozone will keep on the good pace though inflation is doing worse than expected. Growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).
Increasing wages (under solid Employment Change figures) and improving Trade Balance are the latest good news for the EUR.
The greenback regained strength after Paul Ryan (U.S. House of Representatives Speaker) said that a tax plan is set to be released next days and after Trump succeeded to raise the debt ceiling.
On the other hand, last U.S. industrial and manufacturing production unexpectedly fell in August and U.S. producer price inflation increased less than expected. In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department said last retail sales change was surprisingly negative.
As we wrote previously, if 1.1856 (very important Support area) will be clearly violated then we see room down to the next Support area (1.176).
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1990
2nd Resistance: 1.2080
1st Support: 1.1856
2nd Support: 1.1756
EUR
Recent Facts:
7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections
12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected
16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected
17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected
23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected
31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected
1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected
8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program
13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected
13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected
23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected
26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected
29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected
30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected
3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected
18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected
24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Services PMI
Worse than Expected
28th of July, German CPI
Better than Expected
31st of July, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) + Unemployment Rate
Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) as Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected
1st of August, German Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Worse than Expected
15th of August, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected
17th of August, Eurozone CPI
As Expected
22nd of August, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected
23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
25th of August, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected
31st of August, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Worse than Expected, CPI Better than Expected
1st of September, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).
13th of September, Eurozone Employment Change
Better than Expected
15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade Balance
Better than Expected
18th of September: Eurozone CPI
As Expected
19th of September: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW current conditions
Better than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected
14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)
23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected
28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected
29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected
3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019
6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected
7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected
13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected
14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected
20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected
27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected
28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected
1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected
2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected
3rd of August, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)
4th of August, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Job Market Better than Expected
8th of August, Job Openings
Better than Expected
10th of August, PPI
Worse than Expected
11th of August, U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected
15th of August, U.S. Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected
23rd of August, Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales
Worse than Expected
29th of August, CB Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected
30th of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + GDP
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected, GDP relevantly better than expected
1st of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment rate
Worse than Expected
1st of September, ISM Manufacturing
Better than Expected
6th of September, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
13th of September, PPI
Worse than Expected
15th of September, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
15th of September, Manufacturing Production + Industrial Production
Worse than Expected
19th of September, Building Permits
Better than Expected
20th of September, FOMC Statement + FOMC Press Conference
Fed confirmed inflation view, labour market growth and scheduled rate hikes
#GBP/USD
UK Retail Sales data on the upbeat.
Fed’s projections point to three rate hikes in 2018, two in 2019 and one in 2020 and to shrinking balance sheet in October following schedule it laid out in July. Interest rate hikes schedule remains unchanged and if conditions were to weaken, would also consider balance sheet reinvestment.
Last Carney’s speech was about monetary policy that may have to “move in order to stand still” due to possibility that global equilibrium interest rates are rising. De-integration effects of Brexit are likely to be inflationary but any rate hikes are expected to be gradual and limited.
He added that any loss of trade openness with EU after Brexit is unlikely to be immediately compensated by ties with new partners.
Brexit slowing negotiations (the fourth round of Brexit negotiations, scheduled for September 22-25, nears and the volume of complaints coming from the financial services sector regarding the lack of progress is growing), terroristic attacks and upcoming German elections are undermining the volatile bullish stamina of the GBP.
As we previously wrote, 1.36 is a definitive very strong Resistance and it rejected GBP/USD: 1.346 (important Support area) under test.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.3610
2nd Resistance: 1.3670
1st Support: 1.3460
2nd Support: 1.3362
GBP
Recent Facts:
11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount
16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected
17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected
18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected
1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected
2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)
5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected
8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.
9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected
13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected
14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected
15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,
20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.
30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account
3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected
5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected
7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected
18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected
20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected
26th of July, UK GDP release (Preliminary)
As Expected
1st of August, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
2nd of August, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)
3rd of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected
10th of August, Manufacturing Production
As Expected
15th of August, UK CPI
Worse than Expected
16th of August, UK Job Market
Better than Expected
17th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
24th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
UK GDP (Preliminary release) as expected but Business Investment (Preliminary release) Worse than Expected
1st of September, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
4th of September, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
5th of September, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
8th of September, Trade Balance and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
12th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected
13th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected
14th of September, BoE Meeting Minutes
The BoE’s monetary policy committee voted 7-to-2 to leave interest rates at their current record low of 0.25% following its policy meeting but the bank said in its rate statement that the economy is looking slightly, so an interest rate hike move is likely “over the coming months” if the economy performs broadly in line with officials’ expectations
18th of September, Governor Carney Speech at IMF headquarter
De-integration effects of Brexit are likely to be inflationary but any rate hikes are expected to be gradual and limited
20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
#AUD/USD
Fed’s projections point to three rate hikes in 2018, two in 2019 and one in 2020 and to shrinking balance sheet in October following schedule it laid out in July.
Australia reported its house price index for the second quarter jumped 1.9%, compared with a 1.1% gain seen. The Reserve Bank of Australia repeated that monetary policy is expected steady for “some time” in the minutes of its September rate review.
Australia reported improved job market and interestingly good home loans data for July, but Trade Balance and Retail Sales worse than expected, and GDP on the downbeat too.
Last Australian Manufacturing Index was better than expected and private new capital expenditure for the second quarter jumped 0.8%, well above a 0.3% gain seen. Also Building Approvals and Construction Work Done better than expected.
On the other hand, last U.S. industrial and manufacturing production unexpectedly fell in August and U.S. producer price inflation increased less than expected. In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department said last retail sales change was surprisingly negative.
As we wrote previously, a re-test in area 0.798 will lead down to the main Support in area 0.792.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.8034
2nd Resistance: 0.8130
1st Support: 0.7916
2nd Support: 0.7828
AUD
Recent Facts:
4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected
9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected
24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected
24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative
25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018
30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected
1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected
6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened
7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected
15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)
29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected
4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%
6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected
11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected
12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected
20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected
25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected
3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected
4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected
9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected
17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative
30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected
1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected
6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected
7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected
19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
#DAX30
From last night opening bell Dax30 increased by 0.06% . The winner of the day was the share of RWE St, which increased 3.32%. There are no significant movements on this index as investor are focus on the Fed decision and also there are no significant EUR fundamental news that could effect the market today.
#Crude oil prices have weakened during last night.
#GOLD
The price of gold was considerably weakened during Asian trading. US Federal Reserve announced last night that they would keep the overnight interest rate at an existing level of 1.25%, but it was left the chance to make another increase during this year. Also, Federal Reserve announced that in October of this year the reduction of the balance sheet of this institution will begin. As a reaction, the US currency has strongly strengthened, while secure investments such as gold declined significantly. Today, at 14:30 in the United States, information will be released on the number of applications to help new unemployed persons, while at the same time publishing the Philadelphia Sector Processing Index, which may additionally affect the price of gold. During Asian trading, the price of gold declined by 1.15%.
#USDJPY
During the night, the Japanese yen weakened relative to the dollar. US Federal Reserve has decided to start the buy-out program for the next month, and it is also anticipated that a third increase in interest rates in December could be expected (which was the subject of a question mark). The current interest rate was retained at the existing level (+ 1.25%). This morning, this currency pair trades at a level of 112.36 yen for one dollar, which at the beginning of the European session makes the yen weaker than the dollar by 0.19%. Earlier in the morning, a press conference of the Japan Bank will be held, and the interest rate is expected to remain in the negative territory. At 14:30 pm, a Fed’s Philadelphia Branch’s production index will be published, so-called. Philiy Fed.
EUR/USD
Today eyes on German Manufacturing PMI and on EBC President Draghi speeches. Focus also in the upcoming German general elections.
Fed’s projections point to three rate hikes in 2018, two in 2019 and one in 2020 and to shrinking balance sheet in October following schedule it laid out in July. Inflation to remain somewhat below 2 pct in near term, to stabilize around 2 pct goal over medium term. Job gains have remained solid, household spending expanding at moderate rate. Business spending has picked up in recent quarters
Near-term risks to the economy appear “roughly balanced” and if conditions were to weaken, would also consider balance sheet reinvestment. Fed vote in favour of policy was unanimous.
According to the latest news headlines hitting the wires, citing reliable sources, ECB policy makers disagree on whether to set a firm end-date for bond-buying program in October.
Some elements of ECB decision could be put off until Dec.;
Concerns over Euro strength is leading to uncertainty and divides within ECB council;
Some ECB rate setters want to be able to extend or expand buys if needed.
During his last ECB Press Conference, President Draghi said that growth forecasts for the Eurozone will keep on the good pace though inflation is doing worse than expected. Growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).
Increasing wages (under solid Employment Change figures) and improving Trade Balance are the latest good news for the EUR.
The greenback regained strength after Paul Ryan (U.S. House of Representatives Speaker) said that a tax plan is set to be released next days and after Trump succeeded to raise the debt ceiling.
On the other hand, last U.S. industrial and manufacturing production unexpectedly fell in August and U.S. producer price inflation increased less than expected. In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department said last retail sales change was surprisingly negative.
Now 1.199 Resistance area still under pressure. It is possible that it will work and, as we wrote previously, if, on the other side, 1.1856 (very important Support area) will be clearly violated then we see room down to the next Support area (1.176).
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1990
2nd Resistance: 1.2080
1st Support: 1.1856
2nd Support: 1.1756
GBP/USD
UK Retail Sales data on the upbeat. Eyes today on Prime Minister May speech.
Fed’s projections point to three rate hikes in 2018, two in 2019 and one in 2020 and to shrinking balance sheet in October following schedule it laid out in July. Interest rate hikes schedule remains unchanged and if conditions were to weaken, would also consider balance sheet reinvestment.
Last Carney’s speech was about monetary policy that may have to “move in order to stand still” due to possibility that global equilibrium interest rates are rising. De-integration effects of Brexit are likely to be inflationary but any rate hikes are expected to be gradual and limited.
He added that any loss of trade openness with EU after Brexit is unlikely to be immediately compensated by ties with new partners.
Brexit slowing negotiations (the fourth round of Brexit negotiations is scheduled on these days and the volume of complaints coming from the financial services sector regarding the lack of progress is growing), terroristic attacks and upcoming German elections are undermining the volatile bullish stamina of the GBP.
As we previously wrote, 1.36 is a definitive very strong Resistance and it recently rejected GBP/USD down to 1.346 (important Support area). There are two scenarios: 1.346 tested back again will lead to a test in area 1.336; 1.365 test, on the upside, will lead up to 1.37 overbought area.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.3610
2nd Resistance: 1.3670
1st Support: 1.3460
2nd Support: 1.3362
AUD/USD
North Korea remarks on a new nuclear test on the Pacific ocean can weigh on AUD.
Fed’s projections point to three rate hikes in 2018, two in 2019 and one in 2020 and to shrinking balance sheet in October following schedule it laid out in July.
Australia reported its house price index for the second quarter jumped 1.9%, compared with a 1.1% gain seen. The Reserve Bank of Australia repeated that monetary policy is expected steady for “some time” in the minutes of its September rate review.
Australia reported improved job market and interestingly good home loans data for July, but Trade Balance and Retail Sales worse than expected, and GDP on the downbeat too.
Last Australian Manufacturing Index was better than expected and private new capital expenditure for the second quarter jumped 0.8%, well above a 0.3% gain seen. Also Building Approvals and Construction Work Done better than expected.
On the other hand, last U.S. industrial and manufacturing production unexpectedly fell in August and U.S. producer price inflation increased less than expected. In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department said last retail sales change was surprisingly negative.
As we wrote previously, a re-test in area 0.798 would have led down to the main Support in area 0.792. Now we are in a consolidation stage, ranging between .798 and .79.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.8034
2nd Resistance: 0.8130
1st Support: 0.7916
2nd Support: 0.7828
#Dax30
Dax30 rose 0.25% on Thursday. The winner of the day was the action of Komerc Bank, which increased 3.46%. At 9:30 pm, preliminary listings of procurement managers from Germany will be published.
#CrudeOil
Prices of crude oil have strengthened during European trading. The price of this fuel is on the rise before the upcoming meeting of member states and non-member OPEC in Vienna. Tonight at 7:00 pm, Baker Hughes reports on the number of newly-opened oil wells in the USA, which may further reflect this energy source. During Asian trading, crude oil prices rose by 0.22%.
#GOLD
The price of gold has increased during European trading. The introduction of new US sanctions against North Korea and the announcement by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of North Korea that a new hydrogen bomb test is in the pipeline, but this time in Pacific Ocean has caused a renewed sense of political risk, which reflected on the strengthening of gold. Today, at 15:45, the PMI service and manufacturing sector indexes will be published in the United States, which may indirectly be reflected in the price of yellow metal. During Asian trading, gold price strengthened by 0.51%
#DAX30
On Friday Dax30 dropped 0.05% . The winner of the day was the action of E.ON, which increased by 1.25%.
#Crude Oil
The price of this energy source is stable because of speculations on new agreements between member states and non-member OPEC regarding the extension of production constraints. Baker Hughes reports on the number of newly opened oil wells on Friday, which showed a fall in five units. Over night, the price of crude oil fell by 0.24%.
#Gold
The price of gold fell slightly during the night and after the elections in New Zealand and Germany. The price of gold in the last weeks is felt on the garments coming from North Korea, which can indirectly be reflected on the price of yellow metal. Over the night, the price of gold fell by 0.19%.
#EUR/USD
Over the night euro continued to weaken after disappointing results of German parliamentary elections being analyzed and realizing potential post-election combinatorial. During Asian trading, the euro has consolidated. This morning, the euro is exchanged for $ 1,1849, which at the beginning of the European session shows the strengthening of the euro by 0.07%. There is no EU economic data today. In the afternoon, at 16:00 pm, sales of new homes in the United States as well as the consumer sentiment announced by the Conference Board are expected.
#GBP/USD
During the night, the dollar retained gains since yesterday, and was slightly raised by the British pound. This morning, it is at the level of $ 1.3485 for one pound, which means a pound increase of 0.14%. Today, there is no economic data from the UK, and at 16:00 hours, sales of new homes in the United States are expected, as well as the consumer sentiment announced by the Conference Board.
#USD/JPY
During the night, the Japanese yen has strengthened because the crisis with regard to North Korea has given rise to secure investments. This morning, this currency pair trades at a level of 111.53 yen for one dollar, which at the beginning of the European session makes it stronger compared to the dollar by 0.17%. In the afternoon, at 16:00 pm, sales of new homes in the United States as well as the consumer sentiment announced by the Conference Board are expected.