FX Analysis by SGT Markets

Lucas_SGT_Markets · July 26, 2018, 10:44am

#EUR/USD
The euro has weakened against the US dollar during Asian trade. The meeting of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and US President Donald Tramp went in a positive atmosphere. Namely, the European Union has committed itself to certain trade concessions to the United States, and at the moment, the uncertainties regarding the new trade barriers have been mitigated by the two economies. Today at 1:45 pm, the European Central Bank holds a regular meeting that expects the reference interest rate to remain unchanged, and 45 minutes later, the president of this institution, Mario Dragi, will address the public, which could reflect the exchange rate of this currency pair . At the end of Asian trading, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.1728, representing a weakening of 0.09%.

#GBP/USD
The British pound strengthened against the US dollar during Asian trading. Today at 2:30 pm, the number of orders for basic durable goods will be announced in the United States, trade balance data and the number of applications for assistance to new unemployed persons, which can be reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. At the end of Asian trading, the British pound is exchanged for $ 1,3200, representing an increase of 0.08%.

#USD/JPY
During the Asian trade, the US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen. Today at 2:30 pm, the number of orders for basic durable goods will be announced in the United States, trade balance data and the number of applications for assistance to new unemployed persons, which can be reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. At the end of Asian trading, the US dollar is exchanged for 110.73 Japanese yen, which represents a weakening of 0.22%.

#GOLD
The price of gold weakened during Asian trade. High yields on US government bonds (different maturities) affect financial market participants to redirect their gold investments to this kind of “save money” financial instruments. Today at 2:30 pm, the number of orders for basic durable goods will be announced in the United States, trade balance data and the number of applications for assistance to new unemployed people, which can affect the US dollar and indirectly affect the price of yellow metal. At the end of Asian trading, the price of gold is around $ 1,230.00 per one ounce, which is a 0.15% weakening.

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil has strengthened. Following the attack by the Huti tribe in Yemen on two oil tankers owned by Saudi Arabia, this country suspended the distribution of crude oil through a strategically important route in the Red Sea, which strengthened the price of this fuel. Today, a monthly bulletin of the OPEK cartel will be published, which could reflect the price of this fuel. At the end of Asian trading, the price of crude oil ranges around $ 69.28 per barrel, representing a weakening of 0.03%.

Lucas_SGT_Markets · July 27, 2018, 10:07am

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trade, the euro was further weakened against the dollar. Yesterday, Mario Dragi stated that the euro zone still needs a significant monetary stimulus, delaying the “long stick” of eventual (first) increase in the ECB’s interest rate, which is expected in one part of the investment public next year next year. This morning saw slower economic growth in France in the second quarter (than expected). At around 08:30, the euro is exchanging for $ 1.1637, which at the beginning of the European session shows a weakening of the euro by 0.04%. Today there are no major economic news and announcements from the euro zone. At 2:30 pm, figures on US GDP growth will be published in the second quarter and at 4:00 pm and a consumer sentiment indicator at the Michigan University in July.

#GBP/USD
During Asian trading, the British pound is still falling relative to the US dollar. Yesterday, the EU’s main negotiator, Michel Barney, rejected the latest proposal by the UK in the process of negotiating the outbreak of an island nation from the EU. In mid-August, a new round of negotiations will be held, which will be personally led by Prime Minister Theresa May. At around 08:30, this currency pair is at $ 1.3094 per pound, which means the pound’s weakening by 0.11%. There are no major economic news and announcements from the UK today. At 2:30 pm, figures on US GDP growth will be published in the second quarter and at 4:00 pm and a consumer sentiment indicator at the Michigan University in July.

#USD / JPY
The US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen during Asian trading. There are somewhat better data on the state of inflation in Japan. Namely, the Tokyo version of the consumer price index was above expectations. At around 8:40 am, the US dollar is exchanged for 111.05 Japanese yen, which represents an increase in yen by 0.16%. At 2:30 pm, figures on US GDP growth will be published in the second quarter and at 4:00 pm and a consumer sentiment indicator at the Michigan University in July.

#GOLD
Gold prices mostly stagnate during Asian trading. At around 08:45, the price of gold is about $ 1,223.5 for a fine ounce. At 2:30 pm, figures on US GDP growth in the second quarter will be published, which, to the extent that affects the US dollar, may also reflect the short-term price of yellow metal. At 4:00 pm and a consumer sentiment indicator for the Michigan University for July.

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil declined. The US Petroleum Institute announced last night that crude oil stocks were much more than expected. Also, reports that China is planning to continue and intensify large-scale infrastructure investment, supports the belief that demand from this multidisciplinary country will not lag behind despite a trade war with the United States. At around 8:45 am, crude oil is traded about $ 69.45 per barrel, which has been falling from 0.23% since the beginning of trading today. At 16:30, an official report on the stock of crude oil reserves in the United States is expected.

Lucas_SGT_Markets · July 31, 2018, 1:43pm

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trading, the euro strengthened against the dollar. This morning data in Germany showed a higher growth in retail than expectations in June. At around 08:50 hours, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.1715, which at the beginning of the European session shows a strengthening of the euro by 0.08%. At 9:55 am, data on unemployment in Germany will be published. At 11:00 hours, data on inflation in the euro zone are expected. Today, and tomorrow, a meeting of the Monetary Board of the Federal Reserve of the United States is held. No increase in interest rates is expected. At 2:30 pm, the US inflation figures for June will be published, according to the methodology used by the Fed, and at 4:00 pm, and important information about consumer confidence in the US.

#GBP/USD
During the Asian trade, the British pound weakened slightly against the US dollar. Poor macroeconomic data lately does not give hope that the increase in the interest rate of the Bank of England, planned for Thursday, is certain. There are no major economic releases from the UK today. At around 08:50, this currency pair is at $ 1.3131 for a pound, which means a pound gain of 0.04%. Today, and tomorrow, a meeting of the Monetary Board of the Federal Reserve of the United States is held. No increase in interest rates is expected. At 2:30 pm, the US inflation figures for June will be published, according to the methodology used by the Fed, and at 4:00 pm, and important information about consumer confidence in the US.

#USD/JPY
The US dollar has slightly weakened against the Japanese yen during Asian trade. Expectedly, the Bank of Japan kept its rate at negative 0.1% and indicated the continuation of a strong monetary incentive program. At around 08:45 hours, the US dollar is exchanged for 111.3 Japanese yen, which represents a weakening of the yen by 0.22%. Today, and tomorrow, a meeting of the Monetary Board of the Federal Reserve of the United States is held. No increase in interest rates is expected. At 2:30 pm, the US inflation figures for June will be published, according to the methodology used by the Fed, and at 4:00 pm, and important information about consumer confidence in the US.

#GOLD
The price of gold is in a mild decline in Asian trading. At around 8:40 am, the price of gold is about $ 1,221.5 for a fine ounce. Today, and tomorrow, a meeting of the Monetary Board of the Federal Reserve of the United States is held. No increase in interest rates is expected. At 2:30 pm, the US inflation figures for June will be published, according to the methodology used by the Fed, and at 4:00 pm, and important information about consumer confidence in the US.

#OIL
During the Asian trade, the price of crude oil declined as data showed that OPEC in July recorded the highest production this year. Reuters announced that production is up 70,000 barrels a day, giving a total of 32.64 million barrels a day. At 08:35 hours, crude oil is traded about $ 69.81 per barrel, which has been falling from 0.46% since the beginning of trading today.

Lucas_SGT_Markets · August 1, 2018, 9:54am

#EUR/USD
The euro has weakened against the US dollar during Asian trade. Today, price fluctuations on the exchange rate of this currency pair are possible. At 10:00 am in the Eurozone will be published the index of procurement managers of the factory sector while in the US in the afternoon will be published more economic data. At 2:15 pm, ADP will change the employment of non-agricultural workers, and less than two hours later, the index of procurement managers of the factory sector. However, market participants today are most likely to expect a decision on the amount of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate, which will be announced at 20:00 with the accompanying statement of this institution. At the end of Asian trading, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.1680, representing a weakening of 0.10%

#GBP/USD
The British pound weakened against the US dollar during Asian trading. At 10:30, the United Kingdom will publish data from the index of procurement managers of the factory sector, while in the US in the afternoon, more economic data will be published. At 2:15 pm, ADP will change the employment of non-agricultural workers, and less than two hours later, the index of procurement managers of the factory sector. However, market participants today are most likely to expect a decision on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate, which will be announced at 20:00 with the accompanying statement, which together can cause increased price fluctuations in the exchange rate of this currency pair. At the end of Asian trading, the British pound is exchanged for 1.3099 US dollars, representing a 0.19% weakening.

#USD/JPY
During the Asian trade, the US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen. After unnamed White House officials this morning that US President Donald Tramp was considering increasing tariffs on products from China, the US currency strengthened. In the afternoon, more economic data will be published in the US. At 2:15 pm, ADP will change the employment of non-agricultural workers, and less than two hours later, the index of procurement managers of the factory sector. However, market participants today are most likely to expect a decision on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate, which will be announced at 20:00 with the accompanying statement. At the end of Asian trading, the US dollar is exchanged for 111.94 Japanese yen, which is a strengthening of 0.06%.

#GOLD
The price of gold weakened during Asian trade. The price of yellow metal is traded in a narrow price range, mostly due to the decision on the amount of the interest rate to be announced tonight at 20:00. Although the US interest rate is expected to remain at the level of 2%, the accompanying Federal Reserve Statement and reviews of future monetary policy directions could affect the price of gold. At the end of Asian trading, the price of gold is around $ 1,220.25 per one ounce, which is a 0.26% weakening.

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil has weakened. Yesterday’s report by the US Petroleum Institute showed a sharp increase in crude oil stocks. Also, the weakening of the price of crude oil is supported by the publication of the Huti tribe that, in order to find a peaceful solution, it will not continue to attack the tanker in the Red Sea further. Today at 16:30, the US government agency will publish its report on the stock of this fuel, which can be further reflected in the price of crude oil. At the end of the Asian trade, the price of crude oil ranges around $ 68.44 per barrel, representing a weakening of 0.45%.

Lucas_SGT_Markets · August 6, 2018, 11:29am

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trade, the euro continued to weaken against the dollar. Early this morning, data on a strong decline in factory orders in Germany in June was announced (-4% versus expected -0.3%). The dollar is in a collision with the European currencies due to the divergence of monetary policies of the most important central banks, which in the near future does not see an end. In addition, tightened US-China relations increase the demand for secure investments that include US Treasury bonds. At around 8:50 am, the euro is exchanged for $ 1,1555, which at the beginning of the European session shows a weakening of the euro by 0.11%. Today there are no major economic announcements and news from the euro zone and the US.

#GBP/USD
During Asian trading, the British pound was further weakened against the US dollar. The dollar is in a collision with the European currencies due to the divergence of monetary policies of the most important central banks, which in the near future does not see an end. In addition, more and more about the EU’s hard-line position and the lack of agreement on Brexit. At around 08:50, this currency pair is at $ 1.2995 per pound, which means the pound’s weakening by 0.06%. Today there are no major economic announcements and news from the euro zone and the US.

#USD/JPY
The US dollar remained largely unchanged compared to the Japanese yen, with a tendency of mild appreciation during Asian trade. Relations between the United States and China are putting pressure on investor optimism so that the Japanese currency is more popular among investors. At around 08:45 hours, the US dollar is exchanged for 111.28 Japanese yen, which represents a weakening of the yen by 0.04%. There are no major economic releases and news from the USA today.

#GOLD
The price of gold has been declining slightly during the Asian trade. After the meeting of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, the dollar is in a strong jump against the major currencies. At around 8:50 am, the price of gold is about $ 1212.5 for a fine ounce. There are no major economic releases and news from the USA today.

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil has risen. On Friday there was a decrease in the number of wells for two units (a total of 859). It is noteworthy that a large number of oil companies in the United States achieved poor quarterly results due to rising operating costs and the withdrawal of oil prices from the highest levels in May and June. In addition, Saudi Arabia produced 200,000 barrels a day in July (a total of 10.29 million barrels) a month earlier. At around 8:35 am, crude oil is traded for around $ 68.64 per barrel, which has grown from 0.22% since the beginning of trading today.

Lucas_SGT_Markets · August 7, 2018, 10:57am

#EUR/USD
The euro strengthened against the US dollar during Asian trading. At the moment, the strengthening of the euro is attributed to the technical correction after the several-day weakening of the common European currency. At 08:00 in Germany, data on industrial production will be published, while at 16:00 in the United States, JOLT will be announced a number of new jobs, which could all be reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. At the end of Asian trading, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.1557, representing a gain of 0.03%.

#GBP/USD
The British pound strengthened against the US dollar during Asian trading. Despite the current build-up, the British currency has been under diminishing pressure because of concerns that the EU’s withdrawal from the EU could not go smoothly as it was expected at first. Today at 4:00 pm in the United States will be announced JOLT number of new jobs, which could all be reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. At the end of Asian trading, the British pound is exchanged for $ 1.2946, an increase of 0.02%.

#USD/JPY
During the Asian trade, the US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen. Japanese yen strengthened as a “safe haven” financial instrument after the first set of US financial sanctions against Iran came into force. Today at 4:00 pm in the United States will be announced JOLT number of new jobs, which could all be reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. At the end of Asian trading, the US dollar is exchanged for 111.33 Japanese yen, representing a weakening of 0.07%.

#GOLD
Gold prices strengthened during Asian trade. The price of yellow metal began recovering after a multi-day decline that was caused by the strengthening of the US dollar. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase the reference interest rate at the next meeting in September will still support the growth of the US currency, hence this slight recovery could be temporary. At the end of Asian trading, the price of gold is around US $ 1,218.40, which is an increase of 0.06%.

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil has strengthened. This morning, the first package of financial sanctions against Iran by the United States came into force. Bearing in mind that Iran is one of the leading producers of crude oil within the OPEK cartel, there is a possibility of increased price fluctuations on the price of this fuel. At 22:30 tonight, the US Petroleum Institute will publish a report on the stock of this fuel, which could further reflect on the price of crude oil. At the end of Asian trading, the price of crude oil ranges around $ 69.17 per barrel, an increase of 0.23%.

Lucas_SGT_Markets · August 8, 2018, 1:39pm

#EUR/USD
The euro strengthened against the US dollar during Asian trading. Strengthening of the US dollar that has been present on the financial market in previous trading sessions is slowly falling off. Yesterday’s disappointing JOLT data on the number of new jobs additionally slowed down the growth of the US currency. Bearing in mind that today there are no significant economic news from the Eurozone and the US, the exchange rate of this currency pair could be under the influence of technical analysis indicators. At the end of Asian trading, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.1623, which is a gain of 0.21%.

#GBP/USD
The British pound strengthened against the US dollar during Asian trading. This week, the British pound is able to separate itself from the lowest recorded value over the past eleven months against the US dollar. However, uncertainty about the outcome of the negotiation burden still burdens the United Kingdom and the British currency, therefore the publication of new information on the UK outbreak could result in increased price fluctuations in the exchange rate of this currency pair. At the end of Asian trading, the British pound is exchanged for 1.2954 British pounds, which is a gain of 0.12%.

#USD/JPY
The US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen during Asian trading. The withdrawal of the US currency is also reflected in relation to the Japanese currency. However, this morning, disappointing current account balance data in Japan have been published, which could affect the Japanese yen during the continuation of trading. At the end of Asian trading, the US dollar is exchanged for 111.25 Japanese yen, which represents a decline of -0.12%.

#GOLD
Gold prices strengthened during Asian trade. The weakening of the US dollar for now has a positive impact on the price of yellow metal. Tonight at 7:00 pm in the US, an auction of US bonds with a ten-year maturity will be held, which could have an impact on the price of gold. At the end of Asian trading, the price of gold is around $ 1,222.60 per one ounce, which is a gain of 0.36%.

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil has strengthened. Yesterday’s report of the American Petroleum Institute showed a strong decline in crude oil stocks, which had an impact on the strengthening of the price of this fuel. Today at 16:30, the US government agency will announce its stock report on this fuel, which could further reflect on this energy source. At the end of Asian trading, the price of crude oil ranges around $ 69.23 per barrel, which is a gain of 0.65%.

Lucas_SGT_Markets · August 9, 2018, 10:35am

#EUR/USD
During the Asian trading, the euro mainly held earlier gains against the dollar. The dollar slowed down after a run which was (driven) by the divergence of monetary policies of the most important central banks. Yesterday yields fell to US government bonds. There are no major economic announcements and news from the euro zone today. At around 08:50 hours, the euro is exchanged for $ 1,1605, which at the beginning of the European session shows a weakening of the euro by 0.04%. At 14:30, the US producer price index will be published.

#GBP/USD
During the Asian trade, the British pound failed to recover significantly. The firm position of the EU and the possible variant of failure to agree on Brexit do not give a pound chance of consolidating. There are no major economic releases and news from the UK today. At around 08:50 hours, this currency pair is at $ 1.2874 per pound, which means the weakening of the pound by 0.05%. At 14:30, the US producer price index will be published.

#USD/JPY
The US dollar remained largely unchanged compared to the Japanese yen, which is at its highest level in relation to the US currency over the past nine days due to speculation about the moment when the Bank of Japan could begin normalizing monetary policy. Also, there will be trade negotiations between the United States and Japan. At around 8:50 am, the US dollar is exchanged for 111.03 Japanese yen, which represents a weakening of the yen by 0.01%. At 14:30, the US producer price index will be published.

#GOLD
Gold prices record a slight recovery during Asian trade. The dollar slows down after a strong rampage in the past days. Yesterday yields fell to US government bonds. At around 08:45, the price of gold is around $ 1214 for a fine ounce. There are no major economic releases and news from the USA today.

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil has managed to consolidate since yesterday’s strong decline. Yesterday, there was a slight decline in the stock of crude oil and petroleum products in the US. In addition, China has decided that customs contests to tax US $ 16 billion in China at a rate of 25% and crude oil. At around 08:45 hours, crude oil is traded about $ 67.05 per barrel, which has been growing since 0.16% since the beginning of trading today

Lucas_SGT_Markets · August 13, 2018, 9:17am

#EUR/USD
The euro has weakened against the US dollar during Asian trade. The exposure of European commercial banks to Turkey and the sharp fall of the Turkish lira continue to burden the common European currency even during early trading on Monday. This week, a reading of the gross domestic product in Germany will be published, as well as retail data in the US, which could affect the exchange rate of this currency pair. At the end of Asian trading, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.1392, representing a weakening of 0.15%.

#GBP/USD
The British pound weakened against the US dollar during Asian trading. The uncertainty about reaching a bargzite agreement still has a negative impact on the British currency. This week, we expect more economic data from the United Kingdom. Namely, labor market data, inflation and retail data will be published, which could create increased price fluctuations in the exchange rate of this currency pair. At the end of Asian trading, the British pound is exchanged for $ 1.2769, representing a weakening of 0.02%.

#USD/JPY
During the Asian trade, the US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen. The sudden weakening of the Turkish lira and the ECB’s data on the exposure of European commercial banks to Turkey has created the so-called " “Risk off” sentiment, which has influenced the strengthening of currencies considered a safe haven, which in turn strengthened the Japanese yen. This week, retail data will be published in the US, which could reflect the currency of this currency pair. At the end of Asian trading, the US dollar is exchanging for 110.31 Japanese yen, a 0.47% weakening.

#GOLD
The price of gold weakened during Asian trade. The price of yellow metal is under declining pressure as a reaction to the strengthening of the US dollar, which is currently at the highest levels in the last thirteen months. Strengthening the US dollar is supported by good economic indicators in the US, an increase in yields on US debt securities and a high probability that the reference interest rate in the US will increase in September. At the end of Asian trading, the price of gold is around US $ 1,215.50, representing a weakening of 0.29%.

#OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil has weakened. On Friday night, the Baker Hughes report showed an increase in the number of oil wells for ten that weakened the price of this fuel. Also, the slowdown in economic growth and the slowdown in demand for crude oil additionally puts pressure on the price of this fuel. During the day, a monthly bulletin of the OPEK cartel will be published, which can be further reflected in the price of crude oil. At the end of Asian trading, the price of crude oil ranges from around $ 67.56 per barrel, a decrease of 0.12%.

Lucas_SGT_Markets · August 15, 2018, 9:14am

#EUR/USD
EUR/USD continued to record losses on Wednesday and fell to its lowest level on June 28, 2017 (1.13186). The US dollar has risen to the highest level in the past 13 months against the major world currencies, as demand for instruments that are considered a safe haven rose as a result of the recent collapse of the Turkish lira, which prompted the strengthening of the US currency. The euro is still under pressure from the situation in Turkey because of the concern that European banks are exposed to the negative consequences of the events in Turkey. Erdogan said on Tuesday that Ankara would boycott electronic products from the United States in response to Washington’s measures. On Wednesday, Turkey significantly raised customs tariffs on some American products, including passenger cars, alcohol and tobacco. On the afternoon, markets may focus on retail data in the US in July, as well as data on industrial production in the same period.

#GBP/USD
GBP/USD fell below 1.2700 this morning and touched the lowest level since mid-June 2017 (1.26887). The US dollar has risen to the highest level in the past 13 months against the major world currencies, as demand for instruments that are considered a safe haven rose as a result of the recent collapse of the Turkish lira, which prompted the strengthening of the US currency. The euro is still under pressure from the situation in Turkey because of the concern that European banks are exposed to the negative consequences of the events in Turkey. Erdogan said on Tuesday that Ankara would boycott electronic products from the United States in response to Washington’s measures. On Wednesday, Turkey significantly raised customs tariffs on some American products, including passenger cars, alcohol and tobacco. The British pound is still under pressure due to disappointing data on wage growth published yesterday, as well as the uncertainty with Brexit ahead of a new round of negotiations starting on Thursday (August 16th). Inflation data for July will be published this morning in the UK. On the afternoon, markets may focus on retail data in the US in July, as well as data on industrial production in the same period.

#USD/JPY
On Wednesday, USD / JPY recorded profit with strong dollar support, and touched the highest level in the session at 111.42. The US dollar has risen to the highest level in the past 13 months against the major world currencies, as demand for instruments that are considered a safe haven rose as a result of the recent collapse of the Turkish lira, which prompted the strengthening of the US currency. The euro is still under pressure from the situation in Turkey because of the concern that European banks are exposed to the negative consequences of the events in Turkey. Erdogan said on Tuesday that Ankara would boycott electronic products from the United States in response to Washington’s measures. On Wednesday, Turkey significantly raised customs tariffs on some American products, including passenger cars, alcohol and tobacco. In general terms, the dollar is in a better position than the yen due to the significant difference in the monetary policy of the two countries. While the Federal Reserve gradually raises the interest rate, the Bank of Japan has still not abandoned the crisis program of monetary stimulus. The ongoing trade war between China and the United States continues to encourage most investors to buy US dollars, which is another reason why the USD / JPY exchange rate is now above 111.00. On the afternoon, markets may focus on retail data in the US in July, as well as data on industrial production in the same period.

#GOLD
Gold has mildly recovered from earlier losses recorded on Tuesday during the Asian session and climbed to level 1193. Gold recently sank to the lowest level since January last year due to the unstoppable strengthening of the US dollar. The dollar touched the new price peak last time recorded in June 2017, as concern over the economic situation in Turkey is fueling stronger demand for instruments that are considered a safe haven. In addition, strengthening yields on US bond holdings reduces demand for non-yielding instruments such as gold. Gold and dollar are usually inverted proportions, and when one instrument goes up, the other goes down. The reason for this is the fact that the value of gold is calculated in dollars.

#OIL
Crude oil lost its value on Wednesday during an Asian session. One barrel currently costs $ 66.42. Oil declined as a result of a report on the growth of oil stocks, as well as the expectation that a possible slowdown in global economic growth would have a negative impact on demand for fuel. Oil reserves in the United States last week rose from 3.7 million barrels to a total of 410.8 million barrels, according to a report by the US Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday. Market sentiment is also not on stable feet due to pessimistic expectations of a global economic growth whose slowdown could cut demand for oil. The global trading volume peaked in January with almost 5.7% annually, but nearly halved to 3.

Lucas_SGT_Markets · August 20, 2018, 9:26am

#EUR/USD

German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) ticked higher than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales beat forecasts.
President Donald Trump was disappointed by the last interest rates hike but he said the U.S. economy is on track to reach an annual growth rate of more than 3 percent, as he celebrated a report that the economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

The Fed raised rates in June and policymakers indicated they expect two more rate increases this year. Powell said nothing to undermine that, and in fact said the economy was poised for several more years of growth.

The ECB, which originally had said asset purchases would continue at least through September, decided instead to briefly taper buying before ending buying altogether next year. As for interest rates, they are to remain unchanged “at least” through the summer of 2019, ECB President Draghi said.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, consolidation area around 1.1570 will be regained and this is occurring after the overextensions pointing at 1.12 Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1490
2nd Resistance: 1.1567
1st Support: 1.1370
2nd Support: 1.1237

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

13th of September, Eurozone Employment Change
Better than Expected

15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

18th of September: Eurozone CPI
As Expected

19th of September: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW current conditions
Better than Expected

22nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (at its highest since May 2011)

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

6th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

12th of October, Core PPI
Higher than Expected

13th of October, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Lower than Expected

27th of October, GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

1st of November, FOMC Statement
Slightly Hawkish

3rd of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
U.S. Job Creation Surges But Misses Consensus; U.S. Wage Inflation flat

14th of November, PPI
Higher than Expected

30th of November, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

8th of December, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

13th of December, U.S. Interest Rates
Fed raised Interest Rates but expressed a dovish view about next moves for accompanying a not-so-convincing U.S. economic expansion.

14th of December, Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected

21st of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Good Orders
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing data
ISM Manufacturing Better than Expected

5th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected

12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

#GBP/USD

Strong Retail Sales in the UK while UK job market worse than expected. Last UK Manufacturing PMI slowed down. Recently, also UK CPI data ticked down.

The pound dropped to its lowest in a year amid speculation Britain will leave the European Union without an agreement regarding its future relationship with Brussels.

Recently, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe sounded a note of caution about raising interest rates.

1.2880 Demand area will be regained soon as we are in oversold.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.2880
2nd Resistance: 1.3060
1st Support: 1.2715
2nd Support: 1.2590

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent

10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected

16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:
See above.

#AUD/USD

Eyes on Australia RBA meeting minutes, later today.

Australia’s top central banker made an explicit case for rates to remain at record lows for some time yet as inflation stays lukewarm while there is still some spare capacity in the labor market.
The RBA last cut rates to 1.50 percent in August 2016 and has since remained on the sidelines, making the current stretch of stable policy the longest in modern history.
“It is likely to be some time before we are at full employment and the inflation rate is comfortably within the target range on a sustained basis,” Lowe added.

Last Australia Employment missed the forecasts.

U.S. Retail Sales beat forecasts. And the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

A possible trade war between the US and China took a step closer to becoming reality.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped the Meeting Minutes of their latest rate decision, and little of note was there to entice Aussie traders to hit the buy button. The central bank is set to hold steady on rates for the foreseeable future as Australian growth figures continue to miss the mark.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we considered very probable a new test in 0.73 area for testing a strong Support area. And this level is being tested currently. We think probable a regain in area 0.734

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7339
2nd Resistance: 0.7408
1st Support: 0.7301
2nd Support: 0.7250

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:
See above.

Lucas_SGT_Markets · August 21, 2018, 10:59am

#EUR/USD

German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) ticked higher than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales beat forecasts.
President Donald Trump was disappointed by the last interest rates hike but he said the U.S. economy is on track to reach an annual growth rate of more than 3 percent, as he celebrated a report that the economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

The Fed raised rates in June and policymakers indicated they expect two more rate increases this year. Powell said nothing to undermine that, and in fact said the economy was poised for several more years of growth.

The ECB, which originally had said asset purchases would continue at least through September, decided instead to briefly taper buying before ending buying altogether next year. As for interest rates, they are to remain unchanged “at least” through the summer of 2019, ECB President Draghi said.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, consolidation area around 1.1570 would have been regained and this is occurring right now after the overextensions pointing at 1.12 Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1490
2nd Resistance: 1.1567
1st Support: 1.1370
2nd Support: 1.1237

#GBP/USD

Strong Retail Sales in the UK while UK job market worse than expected. Last UK Manufacturing PMI slowed down. Recently, also UK CPI data ticked down.

The pound dropped to its lowest in a year amid speculation Britain will leave the European Union without an agreement regarding its future relationship with Brussels.

Recently, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe sounded a note of caution about raising interest rates.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.2880 Demand area would have been regained soon as we were in oversold. And this is occurring right now.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2880
2nd Resistance: 1.3060
1st Support: 1.2715
2nd Support: 1.2590

#AUD/USD

Australia’s top central banker made an explicit case for rates to remain at record lows for some time yet as inflation stays lukewarm while there is still some spare capacity in the labor market.
The RBA last cut rates to 1.50 percent in August 2016 and has since remained on the sidelines, making the current stretch of stable policy the longest in modern history.
“It is likely to be some time before we are at full employment and the inflation rate is comfortably within the target range on a sustained basis,” Lowe added.

Last Australia Employment missed the forecasts.

U.S. Retail Sales beat forecasts. And the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

A possible trade war between the US and China took a step closer to becoming reality.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped the Meeting Minutes of their latest rate decision, and little of note was there to entice Aussie traders to hit the buy button. The central bank is set to hold steady on rates for the foreseeable future as Australian growth figures continue to miss the mark.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we considered very probable a new test in 0.73 area for testing a strong Support area. And this level is being tested currently. We think probable a regain in area 0.734

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7339
2nd Resistance: 0.7408
1st Support: 0.7301
2nd Support: 0.7250

Lucas_SGT_Markets · August 23, 2018, 9:58am

#EUR/USD

Eyes on today German Manufacturing PMI data

Last U.S. Retail Sales beat forecasts.
President Donald Trump was disappointed by the last interest rates hike but he said the U.S. economy is on track to reach an annual growth rate of more than 3 percent, as he celebrated a report that the economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

The Fed raised rates in June and policymakers indicated they expect two more rate increases this year. Powell said nothing to undermine that, and in fact said the economy was poised for several more years of growth.

The ECB, which originally had said asset purchases would continue at least through September, decided instead to briefly taper buying before ending buying altogether next year. As for interest rates, they are to remain unchanged “at least” through the summer of 2019, ECB President Draghi said.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, consolidation area around 1.1570 would have been regained and this just occurred, after the overextensions pointing at 1.12 Demand Area. Now we expect this correction to get to an end.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1720
2nd Resistance: 1.1567
1st Support: 1.1490
2nd Support: 1.1370

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

13th of September, Eurozone Employment Change
Better than Expected

15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

18th of September: Eurozone CPI
As Expected

19th of September: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW current conditions
Better than Expected

22nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (at its highest since May 2011)

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: German Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

6th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

12th of October, Core PPI
Higher than Expected

13th of October, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Lower than Expected

27th of October, GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

1st of November, FOMC Statement
Slightly Hawkish

3rd of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
U.S. Job Creation Surges But Misses Consensus; U.S. Wage Inflation flat

14th of November, PPI
Higher than Expected

30th of November, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

8th of December, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

13th of December, U.S. Interest Rates
Fed raised Interest Rates but expressed a dovish view about next moves for accompanying a not-so-convincing U.S. economic expansion.

14th of December, Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected

21st of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Good Orders
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing data
ISM Manufacturing Better than Expected

5th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected

12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

#GBP/USD

Strong Retail Sales in the UK while UK job market worse than expected. Last UK Manufacturing PMI slowed down. Recently, also UK CPI data ticked down.

The pound dropped to its lowest in a year amid speculation Britain will leave the European Union without an agreement regarding its future relationship with Brussels.

Recently, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe sounded a note of caution about raising interest rates.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.2880 Demand area would have been regained (in consolidation mode) soon as we were in oversold. And this is just occurring.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2880
2nd Resistance: 1.3060
1st Support: 1.2715
2nd Support: 1.2590

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent

10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected

16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

#AUD/USD

The Australian dollar tumbled more than half a percent after Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership could be doomed following the resignation of three senior ministers.

Australia’s top central banker made an explicit case for rates to remain at record lows for some time yet as inflation stays lukewarm while there is still some spare capacity in the labor market.
The RBA last cut rates to 1.50 percent in August 2016 and has since remained on the sidelines, making the current stretch of stable policy the longest in modern history.
“It is likely to be some time before we are at full employment and the inflation rate is comfortably within the target range on a sustained basis,” Lowe added.

Last Australia Employment missed the forecasts.

U.S. Retail Sales beat forecasts. And the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

A possible trade war between the US and China took a step closer to becoming reality.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped the Meeting Minutes of their latest rate decision, and little of note was there to entice Aussie traders to hit the buy button. The central bank is set to hold steady on rates for the foreseeable future as Australian growth figures continue to miss the mark.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we considered very probable a new test in 0.73 area for testing a strong Support area. And this level is being tested currently.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7339
2nd Resistance: 0.7408
1st Support: 0.7301
2nd Support: 0.7250

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

https://sgtmarkets.com/en/market-news/forex-analysis-2018-08-23/

Lucas_SGT_Markets · August 27, 2018, 9:59am

#EUR/USD

U.S. Core Durable worse than expected.

German Manufacturing PMI below expectations (confirming a downtrend) while German Services PMI above expectations

The Fed raised rates in June and policymakers indicated they expect two more rate increases this year. Powell said nothing to undermine that, and in fact said the economy was poised for several more years of growth. President Donald Trump was disappointed by the last interest rates hike but he said the U.S. economy is on track to reach an annual growth rate of more than 3 percent, as he celebrated a report that the economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

The ECB, which originally had said asset purchases would continue at least through September, decided instead to briefly taper buying before ending buying altogether next year. As for interest rates, they are to remain unchanged “at least” through the summer of 2019, ECB President Draghi said.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, consolidation area around 1.1570 would have been regained and this just occurred, after the overextensions pointing at 1.12 Demand Area. Now we expect this correction to get to an end.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1720
2nd Resistance: 1.1905
1st Support: 1.1490
2nd Support: 1.1370

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

13th of September, Eurozone Employment Change
Better than Expected

15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

18th of September: Eurozone CPI
As Expected

19th of September: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW current conditions
Better than Expected

22nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (at its highest since May 2011)

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

6th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

12th of October, Core PPI
Higher than Expected

13th of October, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Lower than Expected

27th of October, GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

1st of November, FOMC Statement
Slightly Hawkish

3rd of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
U.S. Job Creation Surges But Misses Consensus; U.S. Wage Inflation flat

14th of November, PPI
Higher than Expected

30th of November, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

8th of December, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

13th of December, U.S. Interest Rates
Fed raised Interest Rates but expressed a dovish view about next moves for accompanying a not-so-convincing U.S. economic expansion.

14th of December, Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected

21st of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Good Orders
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing data
ISM Manufacturing Better than Expected

5th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected

12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

#GBP/USD

Eyes on today UK Manufacturing PMI data.

Strong Retail Sales in the UK while UK job market worse than expected. Last UK Manufacturing PMI slowed down. Recently, also UK CPI data ticked down.

The pound dropped to its lowest in a year amid speculation Britain will leave the European Union without an agreement regarding its future relationship with Brussels.

Recently, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe sounded a note of caution about raising interest rates.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.2880 Demand area would have been regained (in consolidation mode) soon as we were in oversold. And this is just occurring.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2880
2nd Resistance: 1.3060
1st Support: 1.2715
2nd Support: 1.2590

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent

10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected

16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

#AUD/USD

Eyes on RBA Interest Rate decision, later today.

The Australian dollar tumbled more than half a percent after Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership could be doomed following the resignation of three senior ministers.

Australia’s top central banker made an explicit case for rates to remain at record lows for some time yet as inflation stays lukewarm while there is still some spare capacity in the labor market.
The RBA last cut rates to 1.50 percent in August 2016 and has since remained on the sidelines, making the current stretch of stable policy the longest in modern history.
“It is likely to be some time before we are at full employment and the inflation rate is comfortably within the target range on a sustained basis,” Lowe added.

Last Australia Employment missed the forecasts.

U.S. Retail Sales beat forecasts. And the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we considered very probable a new test in 0.73 pivotal area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7339
2nd Resistance: 0.7408
1st Support: 0.7301
2nd Support: 0.7250

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas_SGT_Markets · August 28, 2018, 11:01am

#EUR/USD

German Manufacturing PMI below expectations (confirming a downtrend) while German Services PMI above expectations

The Fed raised rates in June and policymakers indicated they expect two more rate increases this year. Powell said nothing to undermine that, and in fact said the economy was poised for several more years of growth. President Donald Trump was disappointed by the last interest rates hike but he said the U.S. economy is on track to reach an annual growth rate of more than 3 percent, as he celebrated a report that the economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

The ECB, which originally had said asset purchases would continue at least through September, decided instead to briefly taper buying before ending buying altogether next year. As for interest rates, they are to remain unchanged “at least” through the summer of 2019, ECB President Draghi said.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, consolidation area around 1.1570 would have been regained and this just occurred, after the overextensions pointing at 1.12 Demand Area. Now we expect this correction to get to an end and we expect a 1.156 test to reoccur.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1720
2nd Resistance: 1.1905
1st Support: 1.1490
2nd Support: 1.1370

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

13th of September, Eurozone Employment Change
Better than Expected

15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

18th of September: Eurozone CPI
As Expected

19th of September: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW current conditions
Better than Expected

22nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (at its highest since May 2011)

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

6th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

12th of October, Core PPI
Higher than Expected

13th of October, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Lower than Expected

27th of October, GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

1st of November, FOMC Statement
Slightly Hawkish

3rd of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
U.S. Job Creation Surges But Misses Consensus; U.S. Wage Inflation flat

14th of November, PPI
Higher than Expected

30th of November, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

8th of December, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

13th of December, U.S. Interest Rates
Fed raised Interest Rates but expressed a dovish view about next moves for accompanying a not-so-convincing U.S. economic expansion.

14th of December, Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected

21st of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Good Orders
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing data
ISM Manufacturing Better than Expected

5th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected

12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

#GBP/USD

Strong Retail Sales in the UK while UK job market worse than expected. Last UK Manufacturing PMI slowed down. Recently, also UK CPI data ticked down.

The pound dropped to its lowest in a year amid speculation Britain will leave the European Union without an agreement regarding its future relationship with Brussels.

Recently, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe sounded a note of caution about raising interest rates.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.2880 Demand area would have been regained (in consolidation mode) soon as we were in oversold. And this is just occurring.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2880
2nd Resistance: 1.3060
1st Support: 1.2715
2nd Support: 1.2590

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent

10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected

16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

#AUD/USD

The Australian dollar tumbled more than half a percent after Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership could be doomed following the resignation of three senior ministers.

Australia’s top central banker made an explicit case for rates to remain at record lows for some time yet as inflation stays lukewarm while there is still some spare capacity in the labor market.
The RBA last cut rates to 1.50 percent in August 2016 and has since remained on the sidelines, making the current stretch of stable policy the longest in modern history.
“It is likely to be some time before we are at full employment and the inflation rate is comfortably within the target range on a sustained basis,” Lowe added.

Last Australia Employment missed the forecasts.

U.S. Retail Sales beat forecasts. And the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we considered very probable a new test in 0.73 pivotal area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7339
2nd Resistance: 0.7408
1st Support: 0.7301
2nd Support: 0.7250

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas_SGT_Markets · August 30, 2018, 10:12am

#EUR/USD

Eyes on today German Job Market data and German CPI.

U.S. GDP (Preliminary release) revised up to 4.2%.

German Manufacturing PMI below expectations (confirming a downtrend) while German Services PMI above expectations

The Fed raised rates in June and policymakers indicated they expect two more rate increases this year. Powell said nothing to undermine that, and in fact said the economy was poised for several more years of growth. President Donald Trump was disappointed by the last interest rates hike but he said the U.S. economy is on track to reach an annual growth rate of more than 3 percent, as he celebrated a report that the economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

The ECB, which originally had said asset purchases would continue at least through September, decided instead to briefly taper buying before ending buying altogether next year. As for interest rates, they are to remain unchanged “at least” through the summer of 2019, ECB President Draghi said.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, consolidation area around 1.1570 would have been regained and this just occurred, after the overextensions pointing at 1.12 Demand Area. Now we expect this correction to get to an end and we expect a 1.156 test to reoccur.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1720
2nd Resistance: 1.1905
1st Support: 1.1490
2nd Support: 1.1370

#GBP/USD

Chief European Union negotiator Michel Barnier said that the EU is prepared to offer a partnership like no other third country. Earlier Barnier’s counterpart, UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab said that a deal is “within our sights”. Barnier’s words carry far more weight.

Strong Retail Sales in the UK while UK job market worse than expected. Last UK Manufacturing PMI slowed down. Recently, also UK CPI data ticked down.

Previously, the pound dropped to its lowest in a year amid speculation Britain will leave the European Union without an agreement regarding its future relationship with Brussels.

Recently, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe sounded a note of caution about raising interest rates.

We are Bullish from Neutral. Eyes to 1.31 area, first, and 1.32, finally.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.3060
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2880
2nd Support: 1.2715

#AUD/USD

Australia HIA New Home Sales, Private New Capital Expenditure dropped below expectations.
U.S. GDP (Preliminary release) revised up to 4.2%.

The Australian dollar tumbled more than half a percent after Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership could be doomed following the resignation of three senior ministers.

Australia’s top central banker made an explicit case for rates to remain at record lows for some time yet as inflation stays lukewarm while there is still some spare capacity in the labor market.
The RBA last cut rates to 1.50 percent in August 2016 and has since remained on the sidelines, making the current stretch of stable policy the longest in modern history.
“It is likely to be some time before we are at full employment and the inflation rate is comfortably within the target range on a sustained basis,” Lowe added.

Last Australia Employment missed the forecasts.

U.S. Retail Sales beat forecasts. And the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

We are in a sideway channel, bottom is 0.725, top is 0.74 area. We expect first a downside exhaustion move and then a recover of 0.73 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7339
2nd Resistance: 0.7408
1st Support: 0.7301
2nd Support: 0.7250

Lucas_SGT_Markets · September 3, 2018, 11:25am

#EUR/USD

Eurozone CPI ticked lower.

U.S. GDP (Preliminary release) revised up to 4.2%.

German Manufacturing PMI below expectations (confirming a downtrend) while German Services PMI above expectations

The Fed raised rates in June and policymakers indicated they expect two more rate increases this year. Powell said nothing to undermine that, and in fact said the economy was poised for several more years of growth. President Donald Trump was disappointed by the last interest rates hike but he said the U.S. economy is on track to reach an annual growth rate of more than 3 percent, as he celebrated a report that the economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

The ECB, which originally had said asset purchases would continue at least through September, decided instead to briefly taper buying before ending buying altogether next year. As for interest rates, they are to remain unchanged “at least” through the summer of 2019, ECB President Draghi said.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, consolidation area around 1.1570 would have been regained and this just occurred, after the overextensions pointing at 1.12 Demand Area. Now we expect this correction to get to an end and we expect a 1.156 test to reoccur.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1720
2nd Resistance: 1.1905
1st Support: 1.1490
2nd Support: 1.1370

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

13th of September, Eurozone Employment Change
Better than Expected

15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

18th of September: Eurozone CPI
As Expected

19th of September: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW current conditions
Better than Expected

22nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (at its highest since May 2011)

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

6th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

12th of October, Core PPI
Higher than Expected

13th of October, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Lower than Expected

27th of October, GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

1st of November, FOMC Statement
Slightly Hawkish

3rd of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
U.S. Job Creation Surges But Misses Consensus; U.S. Wage Inflation flat

14th of November, PPI
Higher than Expected

30th of November, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

8th of December, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

13th of December, U.S. Interest Rates
Fed raised Interest Rates but expressed a dovish view about next moves for accompanying a not-so-convincing U.S. economic expansion.

14th of December, Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected

21st of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Good Orders
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing data
ISM Manufacturing Better than Expected

5th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected

12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

#GBP/USD

Chief European Union negotiator Michel Barnier said that the EU is prepared to offer a partnership like no other third country. Earlier Barnier’s counterpart, UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab said that a deal is “within our sights”. Barnier’s words carry far more weight.

Strong Retail Sales in the UK while UK job market worse than expected. Last UK Manufacturing PMI slowed down. Recently, also UK CPI data ticked down.

Previously, the pound dropped to its lowest in a year amid speculation Britain will leave the European Union without an agreement regarding its future relationship with Brussels.

Recently, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe sounded a note of caution about raising interest rates.

We are Bullish from Neutral. Eyes to 1.31 area, first, and 1.32, finally.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.3060
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2880
2nd Support: 1.2715

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent

10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected

16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

#AUD/USD

Australia HIA New Home Sales, Private New Capital Expenditure dropped below the expectations.
U.S. GDP (Preliminary release) revised up to 4.2%.

The Australian dollar tumbled more than half a percent after Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership could be doomed following the resignation of three senior ministers.

Australia’s top central banker made an explicit case for rates to remain at record lows for some time yet as inflation stays lukewarm while there is still some spare capacity in the labor market.
The RBA last cut rates to 1.50 percent in August 2016 and has since remained on the sidelines, making the current stretch of stable policy the longest in modern history.
“It is likely to be some time before we are at full employment and the inflation rate is comfortably within the target range on a sustained basis,” Lowe added.

Last Australia Employment missed the forecasts.

U.S. Retail Sales beat forecasts. And the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

We are in a sideway channel, bottom is 0.725, top is 0.74 area. We expect first a downside exhaustion move, as it is happening currently, and then a recover of 0.73 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7301
2nd Resistance: 0.7339
1st Support: 0.7250 (fake breakout)
2nd Support: 0.7190

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas_SGT_Markets · September 10, 2018, 10:20am

#EUR/USD

Eurozone CPI ticked lower.

U.S. GDP (Preliminary release) revised up to 4.2%.

German Manufacturing PMI below expectations (confirming a downtrend) while German Services PMI above expectations

The Fed raised rates in June and policymakers indicated they expect two more rate increases this year. Powell said nothing to undermine that, and in fact said the economy was poised for several more years of growth. President Donald Trump was disappointed by the last interest rates hike but he said the U.S. economy is on track to reach an annual growth rate of more than 3 percent, as he celebrated a report that the economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

The ECB, which originally had said asset purchases would continue at least through September, decided instead to briefly taper buying before ending buying altogether next year. As for interest rates, they are to remain unchanged “at least” through the summer of 2019, ECB President Draghi said.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, consolidation area around 1.1570 would have been regained and this just occurred, after the overextensions pointing at 1.12 Demand Area. Now we expect this correction to get to an end and we expect a 1.149 test to reoccur.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1720
2nd Resistance: 1.1905
1st Support: 1.1490
2nd Support: 1.1370

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

13th of September, Eurozone Employment Change
Better than Expected

15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

18th of September: Eurozone CPI
As Expected

19th of September: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW current conditions
Better than Expected

22nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (at its highest since May 2011)

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

6th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

12th of October, Core PPI
Higher than Expected

13th of October, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Lower than Expected

27th of October, GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

1st of November, FOMC Statement
Slightly Hawkish

3rd of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
U.S. Job Creation Surges But Misses Consensus; U.S. Wage Inflation flat

14th of November, PPI
Higher than Expected

30th of November, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

8th of December, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

13th of December, U.S. Interest Rates
Fed raised Interest Rates but expressed a dovish view about next moves for accompanying a not-so-convincing U.S. economic expansion.

14th of December, Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected

21st of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Good Orders
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing data
ISM Manufacturing Better than Expected

5th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected

12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

#GBP/USD

Eyes on today UK Manufacturing Production data.

Chief European Union negotiator Michel Barnier said that the EU is prepared to offer a partnership like no other third country. Earlier Barnier’s counterpart, UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab said that a deal is “within our sights”. Barnier’s words carry far more weight.

Strong Retail Sales in the UK while UK job market worse than expected. Last UK Manufacturing PMI slowed down. Recently, also UK CPI data ticked down.

Previously, the pound dropped to its lowest in a year amid speculation Britain will leave the European Union without an agreement regarding its future relationship with Brussels.

Recently, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe sounded a note of caution about raising interest rates.

We are Bullish from Neutral. After a consolidation aroud 1.28 area, eyes to 1.31 area, first, and 1.32, finally.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.3060
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2880
2nd Support: 1.2715

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent

10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected

16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

#AUD/USD

Australia HIA New Home Sales, Private New Capital Expenditure dropped below the expectations.
U.S. GDP (Preliminary release) revised up to 4.2%.

The Australian dollar tumbled more than half a percent after Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership could be doomed following the resignation of three senior ministers.

Australia’s top central banker made an explicit case for rates to remain at record lows for some time yet as inflation stays lukewarm while there is still some spare capacity in the labor market.
The RBA last cut rates to 1.50 percent in August 2016 and has since remained on the sidelines, making the current stretch of stable policy the longest in modern history.
“It is likely to be some time before we are at full employment and the inflation rate is comfortably within the target range on a sustained basis,” Lowe added.

Last Australia Employment missed the forecasts.

U.S. Retail Sales beat forecasts. And the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

We are in a sideway channel, bottom is 0.71, top is 0.74 area. We expect first a downside exhaustion move, as it is happening currently, and then a recover of 0.73 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7190
2nd Resistance: 0.7250
1st Support: 0.7120
2nd Support: 0.7044

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas_SGT_Markets · September 12, 2018, 12:47pm

EURUSD

The Fed raised rates in June and policymakers indicated they expect two more rate increases this year. Powell said nothing to undermine that, and in fact said the economy was poised for several more years of growth. President Donald Trump was disappointed by the last interest rates hike but he said the U.S. economy is on track to reach an annual growth rate of more than 3 percent, as he celebrated a report that the economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

The ECB, which originally had said asset purchases would continue at least through September, decided instead to briefly taper buying before ending buying altogether next year. As for interest rates, they are to remain unchanged “at least” through the summer of 2019, ECB President Draghi said.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, consolidation area around 1.1570 would have been regained and this just occurred, after the overextensions pointing at 1.12 Demand Area. Now we expect this correction to get to an end and we expect a 1.149 test to reoccur.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1720
2nd Resistance: 1.1905
1st Support: 1.1490
2nd Support: 1.1370

GBPUSD

UK Job Market still stronger than expected while last UK Manufacturing Production data came worse than analysts’ expectations.

While speaking at an event in Slovenia, Barnier said that it would be realistic to expect that the EU would reach a Brexit deal with the UK in six to eight weeks. “We want a deal, we are on the way to find a deal,” Barnier added. Boosted by these remarks, the pound sterling recorded sharp gains against its peers.

Recently, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe sounded a note of caution about raising interest rates.

We are Neutral. After a consolidation around 1.28 area, and in the case of a breakout, then eyes to 1.31 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.3060
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2880
2nd Support: 1.2715

AUDUSD

Eyes on Australia Job Market data, later today.

Westpac Consumer Sentiment, Australia HIA New Home Sales, Private New Capital Expenditure dropped below the expectations.
U.S. GDP (Preliminary release) revised up to 4.2%.

The Australian dollar tumbled more than half a percent after Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership could be doomed following the resignation of three senior ministers.

U.S. Retail Sales beat forecasts. And the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

We are in a sideway channel, bottom is 0.71, top is 0.74 area. We expect first a downside exhaustion move, as it is happening currently, and then a recover of 0.73 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7190
2nd Resistance: 0.7250
1st Support: 0.7120
2nd Support: 0.7044

Lucas_SGT_Markets · September 17, 2018, 8:47am

EURUSD

ECB President Draghi pointed out very good Job Market numbers and inflation data consistent with the forecasts (with wage inflation pushing upwards).
Last U.S. CPI (Inflation) release came lower than expected.

U.S. GDP (Preliminary release) revised up to 4.2%.

German Manufacturing PMI below expectations (confirming a downtrend) while German Services PMI above expectations

The Fed raised rates in June and policymakers indicated they expect two more rate increases this year. Powell said nothing to undermine that, and in fact said the economy was poised for several more years of growth. President Donald Trump was disappointed by the last interest rates hike but he said the U.S. economy is on track to reach an annual growth rate of more than 3 percent, as he celebrated a report that the economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

The ECB, which originally had said asset purchases would continue at least through September, decided instead to briefly taper buying before ending buying altogether next year. As for interest rates, they are to remain unchanged “at least” through the summer of 2019, ECB President Draghi said.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, consolidation area around 1.1570 would have been regained and this just occurred, after the overextensions pointing at 1.12 Demand Area. Now we expect this correction to get to an end and we expect a 1.149 test to reoccur.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1720
2nd Resistance: 1.1905
1st Support: 1.1490
2nd Support: 1.1370

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

13th of September, Eurozone Employment Change
Better than Expected

15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

18th of September: Eurozone CPI
As Expected

19th of September: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW current conditions
Better than Expected

22nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (at its highest since May 2011)

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

14th of December, Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected

21st of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Good Orders
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing data
ISM Manufacturing Better than Expected

5th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected

12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

GBP/USD

Last U.S. CPI (Inflation) data came lower than expected.

UK Job Market still stronger than expected while last UK Manufacturing Production data came worse than analysts’ expectations.

While speaking at an event in Slovenia, Barnier said that it would be realistic to expect that the EU would reach a Brexit deal with the UK in six to eight weeks. “We want a deal, we are on the way to find a deal,” Barnier added. Boosted by these remarks, the pound sterling recorded sharp gains against its peers.

Recently, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe sounded a note of caution about raising interest rates.

Aa we wrote in the previous commentaries, after a consolidation around 1.28 areathen eyes to 1.31 area. And this is happening now. But now we enter the overbought phase.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3060 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2880
2nd Support: 1.2715

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent

10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected

16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Last Australia Job Market data impressed positively.

Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment, HIA New Home Sales, Private New Capital Expenditure dropped below the expectations.
U.S. GDP (Preliminary release) revised up to 4.2%.

The Australian dollar tumbled more than half a percent after Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership could be doomed following the resignation of three senior ministers.

U.S. Retail Sales beat forecasts. And the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.

We are in a sideway channel, bottom is 0.71, top is 0.74 area. We expected first a downside exhaustion move, as it is happened recently, and from now it is likely to occur a recover of 0.73 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7190
2nd Resistance: 0.7250
1st Support: 0.7120
2nd Support: 0.7044

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.