EUR/USD
China vowed to retaliate after the Trump administration said it will impose a 10 percent tariff on about $200 billion in Chinese goods (and more than double the rate in 2019).
ECB President Draghi pointed out very good Job Market numbers and inflation data consistent with the forecasts (with wage inflation pushing upwards).
Last U.S. CPI (Inflation) release came lower than expected.
U.S. GDP (Preliminary release) revised up to 4.2%.
German Manufacturing PMI below expectations (confirming a downtrend) while German Services PMI above expectations
The Fed raised rates in June and policymakers indicated they expect two more rate increases this year. Powell said nothing to undermine that, and in fact said the economy was poised for several more years of growth. President Donald Trump was disappointed by the last interest rates hike but he said the U.S. economy is on track to reach an annual growth rate of more than 3 percent, as he celebrated a report that the economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.
As we wrote in the previous commentaries, consolidation area around 1.1570 would have been regained and this just occurred, after the overextensions pointing at 1.12 Demand Area. Now we expect this correction to get to an end and we expect a 1.149 test to reoccur.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1720
2nd Resistance: 1.1905
1st Support: 1.1490
2nd Support: 1.1370
EUR
Recent Facts:
7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).
13th of September, Eurozone Employment Change
Better than Expected
15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade Balance
Better than Expected
18th of September: Eurozone CPI
As Expected
19th of September: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW current conditions
Better than Expected
22nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (at its highest since May 2011)
28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected
29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected
25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary
31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected
2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected
14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected
23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected
14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected
5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected
24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected
14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected
21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected
20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)
29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected
4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected
17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected
18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected
24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected
27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected
15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected
23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected
1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected
15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)
29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected
10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected
24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected
30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected
31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected
1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected
14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected
23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
14th of December, Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected
21st of December, GDP
Worse than Expected
22nd of December, Core Durable Good Orders
Worse than Expected
3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing data
ISM Manufacturing Better than Expected
5th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected
11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected
12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected
19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected
19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected
1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected
14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected
27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected
28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected
9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected
13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected
28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected
2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected
16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected
1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected
4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected
10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected
15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected
30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected
1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected
27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected
28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected
6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected
11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected
12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)
27th of July: GDP
As Expected
3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected
9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected
15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected
29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected
13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected
GBP/USD
Last U.S. CPI (Inflation) data came lower than expected.
UK Job Market still stronger than expected while last UK Manufacturing Production data came worse than analystsâ expectations.
While speaking at an event in Slovenia, Barnier said that it would be realistic to expect that the EU would reach a Brexit deal with the UK in six to eight weeks. âWe want a deal, we are on the way to find a deal,â Barnier added. Boosted by these remarks, the pound sterling recorded sharp gains against its peers.
Recently, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe sounded a note of caution about raising interest rates.
Aa we wrote in the previous commentaries, after a consolidation around 1.28 area then eyes to 1.31 area. And this is happening now. But now we enter the overbought phase.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3060 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2880
2nd Support: 1.2715
GBP
Recent Facts:
25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected
1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent
10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected
15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected
16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected
8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected
14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected
22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected
2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected
10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected
19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected
26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected
1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected
16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected
22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected
2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected
5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected
9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected
21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected
22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike
3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected
18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected
19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected
1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent
15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected
23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected
24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected
1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected
14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected
3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected
10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected
14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected
10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
AUD/USD
China vowed to retaliate after the Trump administration said it will impose a 10 percent tariff on about $200 billion in Chinese goods (and more than double the rate in 2019).
Last Australia Job Market data impressed positively.
Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment, HIA New Home Sales, Private New Capital Expenditure dropped below the expectations.
U.S. GDP (Preliminary release) revised up to 4.2%.
U.S. Retail Sales beat forecasts. And the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest pace in four years.
We are in a sideway channel, bottom is 0.71, top is 0.74 area. We expected first a downside exhaustion move, as it is happened recently, and from now it is likely to occur a recover of 0.73 area.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7190
2nd Resistance: 0.7250
1st Support: 0.7120
2nd Support: 0.7044
AUD
Recent Facts:
7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected
15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)
29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected
4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%
6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected
11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected
12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected
20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected
25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected
3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected
4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected
9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected
17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative
30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected
1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected
6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected
7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected
19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected
5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected
25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected
5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing
6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected
14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected
11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens
1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected
1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected
6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected
15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected
6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected
4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected
5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected
25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected
7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish
17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected
6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected
14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected
4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected
19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected
25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected
16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected
30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected
12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected
13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.