FX Analysis by SGT Markets

Commercial Content Analysts
41

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Daily-Forex-Analysis-20170130.jpg700×340 35.4 KB

Eyes on U.S. GDP which was released on Friday as significantly Lower than Expected.

The weakness in the dollar reflected concerns over a lack of clarity on Trump’s economic policies and fears that his protectionist stance could hit corporate profits and act as a drag on growth. The dollar fell in Asia on Monday as the fallout from President Donald Trump’s move to ban travellers from seven Muslim-majority countries sparked concerns of a backlash and investors looked ahead this week to central bank decisions in the U.S., U.K. Japan and Australia.
As per our previous commentaries, we still expect EUR/USD to fall down to 1.06 area.

ECB President stated: Rates seen at current or lower levels for extended period of time. No convincing upward trend in underlying inflation. Headline inflation likely to pick up further near term. Underlying inflation expected to rise more gradually medium term.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0679
2nd Support: 1.0610

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Daily-Forex-Analysis-20170130.jpg700×339 33.8 KB

GDP data release was better than Expected. Over the past 6 months no one reading was below the forecast and 4 were better then expected. Nonetheless – at this present point with the unrealistic peaks recently marked by GBP – we are bearish on GBP, mostly due to EA-related problems which will generate broad reversals.

EU Banking System set as condition for any cooperation with the financial institutions in the UK that of having them fully aligned with European policies.
Probably Trump’s setup will create a positive resonance in the Economy of UK, but not in the short term. We expect GBP/USD down to 1.25 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2670
2nd Resistance: 1.2850
1st Support: 1.2530
2nd Support: 1.2410

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.


AUD/USD

Earlier Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016, disappointing expectations for an increase of 0.7%. Now AUD gets tightly linked to Oil prices.

Now we are testing a resistance in 0.756 area. On the long-term, we project an overshoot on 0.77 area in order to exhaust the overbought impulse.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7597
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

42

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Daily-Forex-Analysis-20170201.jpg700×341 35.8 KB

CPI and GDP preliminary release Better than Expected.

German Unemployment Better than Expected. U.S. GDP released on Friday as significantly Lower than Expected.

The dollar remained weaker against a basket of the other major currencies on Tuesday as concerns over the destabilizing impact of President Donald Trump’s immigration policy continued to generate risk aversion. The Dollar Index (DXY) tumbled to 99.36, the lowest since November 14. Donald Trump, accused other countries on living “on devaluation”. He accused China and Japan of playing “the money market”.

We are slightly bullish on a weekly time horizon.

ECB President stated: Rates seen at current or lower levels for extended period of time. No convincing upward trend in underlying inflation. Headline inflation likely to pick up further near term. Underlying inflation expected to rise more gradually medium term.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0679
2nd Support: 1.0610

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: German Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

16th of November, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Worse than Expected

17th of November, CPI + Housing Starts + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
CPI Worse than Expected, Building Permits and Housing Starts Better than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Worse than Expected

22nd of November, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of November, Durable Goods Orders + New Home Sales + FOMC Minute Meeting
Durable Goods Orders Better than Expected, FOMC Minute Meeting didn’t tell anything new (a rate hike appropriate relatively soon as long as data cooperates)

29th of November, GDP (Preliminary release) + CB Consumer Confidence
GDP Better than Expected, CB Consumer Confidence Better than Expected

30th of November, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected (new high since January 2016)

1st of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI (it is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies)
Better than Expected

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

Eyes on today release: ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Daily-Forex-Analysis-20170201.jpg700×339 34.4 KB

We are bearish on GBP, mostly due to EA-related problems which will generate broad reversals. But at the same time both good data from the European Economy and bad data from the U.S. are sustaining the appeal of the new British Economy.

EU Banking System set as condition for any cooperation with the financial institutions in the UK that of having them fully aligned with European policies.
Probably Trump’s setup will create a positive resonance in the Economy of UK, but not in the short term. We expect GBP/USD to react bouncing from 1.25 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2670
2nd Resistance: 1.2850
1st Support: 1.2530
2nd Support: 1.2410

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected

9th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015

18th of August, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015

1st of September, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Better than Expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015

5th of September, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

30th of September, Gross Domestic Product
Pared the Expectations

4th of October, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

18th of October, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

19th of October, Job Market (Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate)
Average Earnings Index + Claimant Count Change + Unemployment Rate As Expected
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected

20th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of October, GDP Q3 (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: UK Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Daily-Forex-Analysis-20170201.jpg700×341 39.1 KB

NZD (New Zealand is Australia’s second biggest export partner) Unemployment Change in line with Expectations.

Earlier Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016, disappointing expectations for an increase of 0.7%. Now AUD gets tightly linked to Oil prices.

The Dollar Index (DXY) tumbled to 99.36, the lowest since November 14. Donald Trump, accused other countries on living “on devaluation”. He accused China and Japan of playing “the money market”.

Now we are testing a resistance in 0.756 area. On the long-term, we project an overshoot on 0.77 area in order to exhaust the overbought impulse.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 0.7597
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

43

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Forex-Analysis-20170206.jpg700×339 34 KB

Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, while Unemployment Rate gets Worse.

The dollar remained weaker against a basket of the other major currencies as fresh sanction by Washington on Iran led to safe-haven demand for the Japanese yen and gold. We think now USD is seriously oversold. EUR/USD expected to correct down to 1.061 area.

We are slightly bullish on a weekly time horizon.

ECB President stated: Rates seen at current or lower levels for extended period of time. No convincing upward trend in underlying inflation. Headline inflation likely to pick up further near term. Underlying inflation expected to rise more gradually medium term.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0679
2nd Support: 1.0610

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected


USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected


GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Forex-Analysis-20170206.jpg700×339 33.4 KB

Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, while Unemployment Rate gets Worse.

During last BoE Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes Carney stated that stronger economic projections do not mean Brexit is without consequence and that there was scope for further easing of the monetary policy if spending growth slows more abruptly than expected.

At the same time both good data from the European Economy and bad data from the U.S. are sustaining the appeal of the new British Economy.

EU Banking System set as condition for any cooperation with the financial institutions in the UK that of having them fully aligned with European policies.
We expect GBP/USD to react bouncing up again from 1.25 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.2670
2nd Resistance: 1.2850
1st Support: 1.2530
2nd Support: 1.2410


GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

see above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Forex-Analysis-20170206.jpg700×340 39.3 KB

December Retail Sales Worse than Expected. Australia posted its largest trade surplus on record in December on the back of surging commodity prices. NZD (New Zealand is Australia’s second biggest export partner) Unemployment Change in line with Expectations.

The Dollar Index (DXY) tumbled to 99.36, the lowest since November 14. Donald Trump, accused other countries on living “on devaluation”. He accused China and Japan of playing “the money market”.

As we anticipated with our previous commentaries, after testing the resistance in 0.756 area there would be an overshoot on 0.77 area in order to exhaust the overbought impulse. And this is happening.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas
SGT Markets

44

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Daily-Forex-Analysis-20170207-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 34.2 KB

Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, while Unemployment Rate gets Worse. Draghi said the recent rise in euro zone inflation is temporary and due almost entirely to rising oil prices and reiterated that underlying inflation remains very subdued.

The dollar remained weaker against a basket of the other major currencies as fresh sanction by Washington on Iran led to safe-haven demand for the Japanese yen and gold. We think now USD is seriously oversold. EUR/USD expected to continue the correction down to 1.061 area.

The euro had already come under pressure earlier in the day as concerns over the possibility of a Brexit or Trump-style shock result in France’s presidential election refocused investors’ attention back to the political risks facing the euro zone.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0679
2nd Support: 1.0610

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Daily-Forex-Analysis-20170207-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 34.2 KB

During last BoE Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes Carney stated that stronger economic projections do not mean Brexit is without consequence and that there was scope for further easing of the monetary policy if spending growth slows more abruptly than expected.

EU Banking System set as condition for any cooperation with the financial institutions in the UK that of having them fully aligned with European policies.
We expect GBP/USD to react bouncing up again after hitting 1.24 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Daily-Forex-Analysis-20170207-sgtmarkets.jpg700×339 38.8 KB

The Reserve Bank of Australia held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with its key trading partner, China.

December Retail Sales Worse than Expected. Australia posted its largest trade surplus on record in December on the back of surging commodity prices. NZD (New Zealand is Australia’s second biggest export partner) Unemployment Change in line with Expectations.

The Dollar Index (DXY) tumbled to 99.36, the lowest since November 14. Donald Trump, accused other countries on living “on devaluation”. He accused China and Japan of playing “the money market”.

As we anticipated with our previous commentaries, after testing the resistance in 0.756 area there would be an overshoot on 0.77 area in order to exhaust the overbought impulse. And this is happening.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

3rd of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas
SGT Markets - Forex Broker and CFD

45

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Daily-Forex-20170209-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 35.2 KB

Worries over elections in the Netherlands, Germany and possibly Italy, as well as the ongoing row over Greece’s bailout add to concerns over political risk in the euro area. The euro come under pressure as concerns over the possibility of a Brexit or Trump-style shock result in France’s presidential election refocus investors’ attention back to the political risks facing the euro zone.

Dovish remarks by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who on Monday downplayed calls for the bank to scale back its stimulus program, also weighs.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we think now USD is oversold. EUR/USD expected to continue the correction down to 1.061 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0610
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

Eyes on today release: German Trade Balance

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Daily-Forex-Analysis-20170209-SGT-Markets.jpg700×338 33.6 KB

Analysts expect a downturn in the UK economy. Bank of England’s Governor Carney due to speak today.

Eyes on 1.24 area, strong support.
During last BoE Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes Carney stated that stronger economic projections do not mean Brexit is without consequence and that there was scope for further easing of the monetary policy if spending growth slows more abruptly than expected.

EU Banking System set as condition for any cooperation with the financial institutions in the UK that of having them fully aligned with European policies.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: BoE Governor Carney Speech

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

GBPUSD-Daily-Forex-Analysis-20170209-SGT-Markets.jpg700×338 33.6 KB

New Zealand holds Interest Rate unchanged and RBNZ say no hikes this year. The Reserve Bank of Australia held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with its key trading partner, China.

December Retail Sales Worse than Expected. Australia posted its largest trade surplus on record in December on the back of surging commodity prices. NZD (New Zealand is Australia’s second biggest export partner). Unemployment Change in line with Expectations.

0.759 area works as strong support and there is still room for an overshoot on 0.77 area in order to exhaust the overbought impulse.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017


USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets

46

EUR/USD

EURUSD-technical-analysis-by-SGT-Markets-20170210.jpg700×339 34.3 KB

Worries over elections in the Netherlands, Germany and possibly Italy, as well as the ongoing row over Greece’s bailout add to concerns over political risk in the euro area. The dollar is rising across the board, after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that he would make a major announcement on a “phenomenal” tax plan in the next few weeks.

The greenback advanced against the euro in three of the four last sessions, as well as climbing to more than one-week highs versus the Swiss franc. Gains were boosted by Thursday’s upbeat U.S. economic data…

Dovish remarks by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who on Monday downplayed calls for the bank to scale back its stimulus program, also weighs.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we think now USD is oversold. EUR/USD expected to continue the correction down to 1.061 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0610
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-technical-analysis-by-SGT-Markets-20170210.jpg700×340 33.8 KB

Eyes on 1.24 area, strong support. We are neutral because of the awakening strength of the USD.

During last BoE Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes Carney stated that stronger economic projections do not mean Brexit is without consequence and that there was scope for further easing of the monetary policy if spending growth slows more abruptly than expected.

EU Banking System set as condition for any cooperation with the financial institutions in the UK that of having them fully aligned with European policies.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing Production

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-technical-analysis-by-SGT-Markets-20170210.jpg700×339 39.2 KB

China’s Trade Balance better than expected and RBA noted improving economic conditions with this key trading partner. New Zealand holds Interest Rate unchanged.

We are neutral because of the awakening strength of the USD.

December Retail Sales Worse than Expected. Australia posted its largest trade surplus on record in December on the back of surging commodity prices. NZD (New Zealand is Australia’s second biggest export partner). Unemployment Change in line with Expectations.

0.759 area works as strong support and there is still room for an overshoot on 0.77 area in order to exhaust the overbought impulse.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525


AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

9th of February, RBA Monetary Policy Statement
…

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets

48

EUR/USD

EURUSD-technical-analysis-20170214-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 33.9 KB

Trump agreed to hold an economic dialogue with Japan and to honor the “one China” policy. Eyes on the “phenomenal” tax plan for the U.S. due to be disclosed this week.

Worries over elections in the Netherlands, Germany and possibly Italy, as well as the ongoing row over Greece’s bailout add to concerns over political risk in the euro area. The dollar is rising across the board, after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that he would make a major announcement on a “phenomenal” tax plan in the next few weeks.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we EUR/USD expected to continue the correction down to 1.061 area and that happened yesterday overshooting around 1.060 area. Now we are neutral with first strong support is 1.0555.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0500

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Producer Price Index (PPI)

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170214-SGT-Markets.jpg700×338 34.2 KB

Today Inflation data will be released. Manufacturing production was again on the upbeat. Eyes on 1.24 area, strong support. We are bearish both because of the awakening strength of the USD and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally. We are in the middle of a ranging price box. Upper border: 1.2670; Lower border: 1.2295.

During last BoE Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes Carney stated that stronger economic projections do not mean Brexit is without consequence and that there was scope for further easing of the monetary policy if spending growth slows more abruptly than expected.

EU Banking System set as condition for any cooperation with the financial institutions in the UK that of having them fully aligned with European policies.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Consumer Price Index (CPI)

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170214-SGT-Markets.jpg700×337 38.1 KB

China’s Trade Balance better than expected and RBA noted improving economic conditions with this key trading partner. New Zealand holds Interest Rate unchanged.

We are neutral because of the awakening strength of the USD but every lows are aligned up. 0.759 area worked as strong support and there is still room for an overshoot on 0.77 area in order to exhaust the overbought impulse.

December Retail Sales Worse than Expected. Australia posted its largest trade surplus on record in December on the back of surging commodity prices. NZD (New Zealand is Australia’s second biggest export partner). Unemployment Change in line with Expectations. Now there is the oil price test.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets - Forex Broker & CFD

49

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170215-SGT-Markets.jpg700×337 33.5 KB

Fed Chair Yellen reiterated her warning about delaying policy tightening. Trump agreed to hold an economic dialogue with Japan and to honor the “one China” policy. Eyes on the “phenomenal” tax plan for the U.S. due to be disclosed this week.

German GDP worse than expectations adds to worries over elections in the Netherlands, Germany and possibly Italy, as well as the ongoing row over Greece’s bailout add to concerns over political risk in the euro area. On the other hand, a “phenomenal” tax plan can be presented by President Trump during next speeches.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we EUR/USD expected to continue the correction down to 1.061 now we are bearish with first strong support at 1.0555.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0500

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Spanish Inflation data + Eurozone Trade Balance

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales + Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170215-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 35.1 KB

Inflation data worse than expected. Today eyes on the Job Market data. Manufacturing production was again on the upbeat. Eyes on 1.24 area, strong support. We are bearish both because of the awakening strength of the USD and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally. We are in the middle of a ranging price box. Upper border: 1.2670; Lower border: 1.2295.

Fed Chair Yellen reiterated her warning about delaying policy tightening.

During last BoE Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes Carney stated that stronger economic projections do not mean Brexit is without consequence and that there was scope for further easing of the monetary policy if spending growth slows more abruptly than expected.

EU Banking System set as condition for any cooperation with the financial institutions in the UK that of having them fully aligned with European policies.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295


GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Job Market

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170215-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 37.7 KB

We are neutral because of the awakening strength of the USD (Fed Chair Yellen reiterated her warning about delaying policy tightening ) but every lows are aligned up. 0.759 area worked as strong support and there is still room for an overshoot on 0.77 area in order to exhaust the overbought impulse.

December Retail Sales Worse than Expected. Australia posted its largest trade surplus on record in December on the back of surging commodity prices. NZD (New Zealand is Australia’s second biggest export partner). Unemployment Change in line with Expectations. Now there is the oil price test. China’s Trade Balance better than expected and RBA noted improving economic conditions with this key trading partner. New Zealand holds Interest Rate unchanged.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD

50

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170216-SGT-Markets.jpg700×338 34.1 KB

On the one hand, Trade Balance is keeping a steady strong pace, on the other hand Fed Chair Yellen reiterated her warning about delaying policy tightening. Trump agreed to hold an economic dialogue with Japan and to honor the “one China” policy. Eyes on the “phenomenal” tax plan for the U.S. due to be disclosed this week.

German GDP worse than expectations adds to worries over elections in the Netherlands, Germany and possibly Italy, as well as the ongoing row over Greece’s bailout add to concerns over political risk in the euro area. On the other hand, a “phenomenal” tax plan can be presented by President Trump during next speeches.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, the first strong support at 1.0555 successfully tested. Now we are in a consolidation phase, median price 1.060 as target.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0500

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170216-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 34.4 KB

Job Market looked to be able to persist over expected levels even though mostly is allocated to Services. Inflation data worse than expected.

Eyes on 1.24 area, strong support. We are bearish both because of the awakening strength of the USD and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally. We are in the middle of a ranging price box. Upper border: 1.2670; Lower border: 1.2295.

Fed Chair Yellen reiterated her warning about delaying policy tightening.

During last BoE Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes Carney stated that stronger economic projections do not mean Brexit is without consequence and that there was scope for further easing of the monetary policy if spending growth slows more abruptly than expected.

EU Banking System set as condition for any cooperation with the financial institutions in the UK that of having them fully aligned with European policies.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Employment data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics are above the expectations.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries there is still room for an overshoot on 0.77 area in order to exhaust the overbought impulse. This is happening.

Now there is the oil price test.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Thanks,
Lucas Carter

51

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170217-SGT-Markets.jpg700×338 34.5 KB

Again good data from U.S economy,

German GDP worse than expectations adds to worries over elections in the Netherlands, Germany and possibly Italy, as well as the ongoing row over Greece’s bailout add to concerns over political risk in the euro area. On the other hand, a “phenomenal” tax plan can be presented by President Trump during next speeches.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, the first strong support at 1.0555 successfully tested. Now we are in a consolidation phase, median price 1.060 as target. Everything above 1.067 area will be overbought.

Fed Chair Yellen reiterated her warning about delaying policy tightening. Trump agreed to hold an economic dialogue with Japan and to honour the “one China” policy. Eyes on the “phenomenal” tax plan for the U.S. due to be disclosed this week.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0500

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected


USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

Eyes on today Retail Sales. Job Market looked to be able to persist over expected levels even though mostly is allocated to Services. Inflation data worse than expected.

Eyes on 1.24 area, strong support. We are bearish both because of the awakening strength of the USD and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally. We are in the middle of a ranging price box. Upper border: 1.2670; Lower border: 1.2295.

Again good data from U.S economy and Fed Chair Yellen reiterated her warning about delaying policy tightening.

During last BoE Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes Carney stated that stronger economic projections do not mean Brexit is without consequence and that there was scope for further easing of the monetary policy if spending growth slows more abruptly than expected.

EU Banking System set as condition for any cooperation with the financial institutions in the UK that of having them fully aligned with European policies.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295


GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Retail Sales

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Employment data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics are above the expectations. U.S data (building permits + Philadelphia fed manufacturing + initial jobless claims) better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries there was still room for an overshoot on 0.77 area in order to exhaust the overbought impulse. This happened and now AUD/USD faces a strong resistance in 0.7735 area so we start to be in overbought.

Now there is the oil price test.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525


AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD

52

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170220-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 35.6 KB

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, the first strong support at 1.0555 successfully tested. Now we are in a consolidation phase, median price 1.060 as target. Everything above 1.067 area will be overbought.

Fed Chair Yellen reiterated her warning about delaying policy tightening. Trump agreed to hold an economic dialogue with Japan and to honour the “one China” policy. Eyes on the “phenomenal” tax plan for the U.S. due to be disclosed this week.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0500

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170220-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 33.3 KB

Retail Sales Worse then Expected. Job Market looked to be able to persist over expected levels even though mostly is allocated to Services. Inflation data worse than expected.

Eyes on 1.24 area, strong support. We are bearish both because of the awakening strength of the USD and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally. We are in the middle of a ranging price box. Upper border: 1.2670; Lower border: 1.2295.

Again good data from U.S economy and Fed Chair Yellen reiterated her warning about delaying policy tightening.

During last BoE Interest Rate Decision and Meeting Minutes Carney stated that stronger economic projections do not mean Brexit is without consequence and that there was scope for further easing of the monetary policy if spending growth slows more abruptly than expected.

EU Banking System set as condition for any cooperation with the financial institutions in the UK that of having them fully aligned with European policies.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170220-SGT-Markets.jpg700×337 37.9 KB

Employment data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics are above the expectations. U.S data (building permits + Philadelphia fed manufacturing + initial jobless claims) better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries there was still room for an overshoot on 0.77 area in order to exhaust the overbought impulse. This happened and now AUD/USD faces a strong resistance in 0.7735 area so we start to be in overbought.

Now there is the oil price test.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD

53

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170222-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 35 KB

German Manufacturing PMI + German Services PMI printed very good numbers. But concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout talks also added to pressure on the euro.

Eyes on FOMC meeting.

Supports successfully tested, now we will test 1.04 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious as hopes for changes to fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration have so far failed to materialize. A solo presidential press conference on Thursday added to doubts over how effective the administration will be in enacting its economic agenda.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Eurozone CPI


USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: FOMC Meeting Minutes

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170222-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 33.4 KB

BoE’s member A. Haldane said he is comfortable with a neutral stance on the potential course of interest rates, while he reiterated that monetary policy could move in either direction and another BoE’s member, McCafferty, hinted at the fact that the economy could be closer to full employment than recent figures of wage growth show.

Eyes on today U.S. FOMC Meeting.

Eyes on 1.24 area, strong support and first target. We are bearish both because of the problematic international post-Brexit uncertainty, because of USD robustness and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally. We are in the middle of a ranging price box. Upper border: 1.2530; Lower border: 1.2295.

EU Banking System set as condition for any cooperation with the financial institutions in the UK that of having them fully aligned with European policies.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170222-SGT-Markets.jpg700×341 38.8 KB

The Reserve Bank of Australia was mildly upbeat on the economy in its February minutes released Tuesday, affirming the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Crude prices settled higher, after hitting a 19-month high in intraday trade, after OPEC secretary reiterated that the oil cartel was sticking to its agreement to cut production.

But now AUD/USD looks to have exhausted its trend.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD

54

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170223-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 35.3 KB

Concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout talks also added to pressure on the euro.

Eyes on FOMC meeting.

Next stop: 1.0463.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0555
2nd Resistance: 1.0610
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: German GDP

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170223-SGT-Markets.jpg700×338 33.7 KB

GDP below the expectations. During last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Eyes on 1.24 area, strong support and first target. We are bearish both because of the problematic international post-Brexit uncertainty, because of USD robustness and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally. We are in the middle of a ranging price box. Upper border: 1.2530; Lower border: 1.2295.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected


USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170223-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 38.9 KB

Private spending for capital items dipped more than expected, raising some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Again, AUD/USD looks to have exhausted its trend.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525


AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets - Forex Broker and CFD

55

Is a good analysis.

56

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170227-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 34.7 KB

German GDP below expectations adds to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout talks also added to pressure on the euro.

Eyes on FOMC meeting.

Next stop: 1.0463.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170227-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 33.4 KB

GDP below the expectations. During last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Now we are in a resistance area, a downside correction is expected. Ultimately eyes on 1.24 area, strong support and first target. We are bearish both because of the problematic international post-Brexit uncertainty, because of USD robustness and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend:Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2410
2nd Support: 1.2295

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170227-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 38.9 KB

Private spending for capital items dipped more than expected, raising some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Again, AUD/USD looks to have exhausted its trend and 0.7735 is a strong resistance.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD

57

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170301-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 35 KB

U.S. Gross Domestic Product below expectations but ears to today’s U.S. President Trump’s speech o congress.

German GDP below expectations adds to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

Next stop: 1.055 first and then eventually 1.0463.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: German Unemployment Change

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170301-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 33.2 KB

U.S. Gross Domestic Product below expectations but ears to today’s U.S. President Trump’s speech o congress.

UK GDP below the expectations. During last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Now we are in a resistance area, a downside correction is expected. Ultimately eyes on 1.23 area, strong support and first target. We are bearish both because of the problematic international post-Brexit uncertainty, because of USD robustness and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2295
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170301-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 37.6 KB

Australia GDP Higher than expected and China’s Manufacturing PMI beats expectations too.

U.S. Gross Domestic Product below expectations but ears to today’s U.S. President Trump’s speech o congress.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Again, AUD/USD looks to have exhausted its trend and 0.7735 is a strong resistance. We expect price to drop down to 0.76 area, and that is happening.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525


AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets - Forex Broker and CFD

58

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170302-SGT-Markets.jpg700×341 35.7 KB

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

Next stop 1.055 under test. If it fails to support then 1.0463.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Eurozone Inflation data

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected


GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170302-SGT-Markets.jpg700×338 33.7 KB

Last U.S. Gross Domestic Product print was below expectations.

UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Now we are on 1.23 area, strong support and first target. We are still bearish both because of the problematic international post-Brexit uncertainty (not helped by uncertainties in Europe as well), because of USD relative stability and because we see technical obstacles for a relevant rally.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2295
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Construction PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170302-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 38.1 KB

Australia GDP Higher than expected and China’s Manufacturing PMI beats expectations too.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

We are entering a sideways movement phase. Buyers probably await 0.76 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7597
2nd Support: 0.7525

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets - Forex Broker and CFD

59

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170303-SGT-Markets.jpg700×337 34.4 KB

Fed President Yellen is speaking tomorrow along with Vice Chair Fischer and FOMC voters Evans and Powell.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

1.05 area under test and everything will depends on Yellen’s speech. If this support will fail then room down to 1.0463.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

Eyes on today release: German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170303-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 34.1 KB

Today major focus on Fed’s speeches. Eyes on Services PMI release too.

UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Now we testing 1.23 area, strong support and first target. We are still bearish but there may be an upside correction, depending mostly on the speech by Yellen and on the earlier news released today.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2295
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected


USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170303-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 39.1 KB

Fed President Yellen is speaking tomorrow along with Vice Chair Fischer and FOMC voters Evans and Powell.

Significantly worse than expected trade balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected and China’s Manufacturing PMI beats expectations though.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

We are entering a sideways movement phase. Buyers will probably trigger a correction but next strong support is around 0.753.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7597
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter

60

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170306-SGT-Markets.jpg700×337 34.8 KB

Fed President Yellen spoke along with Vice Chair Fischer and FOMC voters Evans and Powell. Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” if Fed determines that data on employment and inflation are continuing to move in line with expectations. Fed’s Fischer added that future U.S. fiscal policies are still unclear.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

1.061 resistance area under test. If this resistance will fail then room up to 1.07. Otherwise, re-test below 1.05 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

1st of December, French and German Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction)
French Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, German Manufacturing PMI Slightly Worse than Expected

4th of December, Italy Constitutional Referendum
Prime Minister quits as vote defeat deepens Europe’s turmoil

8th of December, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rate Unchanged but the European Central Bank wants to extend its asset purchase program for additional nine months

13th of December, Eurozone CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Eurozone CPI pared the Expectations, German ZEW contrasted

15th of December, German Manufacturing (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment + German CPI
Better than Expected

4th of January, Spanish Unemployment + Eurozone Services PMI + Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

19th of January, ECB Interest Rates + Press Conference
Rates Unchanged

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Services PMI Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of December, Fed Interest rate decision + FOMC Meeting
USD Interest Rate hike happened as expected.

15th of December, Core CPI + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Core CPI Slightly Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Better than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Goods Orders + GDP
Better than Expected

28th of December, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of January, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The forecast of as many as three rate hikes in 2017 is highly variable on President-elect Donald Trump getting an aggressive tax cut and spending plan through Congress

6th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected (over the last 6 months, 4 were below the expectations)

13th of January, Producer Price Index + Retail Sales
Producer Price Index Higher than Expected, Retail Sales slightly Worse than Expected

24th of January, Manufacturing PMI + Existing Home Sales
Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Existing Home Sales Worse than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170306-SGT-Markets.jpg700×341 33.4 KB

Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” if Fed determines that data on employment and inflation are continuing to move in line with expectations. Fed’s Fischer added that future U.S. fiscal policies are still unclear.

UK Services PMI below expectations.

UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

We are still testing 1.23 area, strong support. If this test will see GBP/USD in 1.2450 area, first, and 1.2530, finally. In the contrary case, we will see 1.217 area as next target.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2295
2nd Support: 1.2169


GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

3rd of November, Services PMI + BoE Monetary Policy votes + Interest Rates Decision
Services PMI Better than Expected, Interest Rates Unchanged and no clues about future change

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

15th of November, CPI
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Job Market
Claimant Count Change (which measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK during the reported month) Worse than Expected

17th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, Manufacturing PMI (it measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector)
Worse than Expected

7th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

9th of December, Consumer Inflation Expectations + Trade Balance (EU and non-EU)
Consumer Inflation Expectations Higher then Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

13th of December, CPI (UK Price Inflation)
Higher than Expected

14th of December, Job Market
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (setting a new high since August 2014)

4th of January, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

11th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

17th of January, UK Prime Minister May speaks
May confirmed that the UK will leave Europe’s single market, but will seek a deal that gives the greatest possible access, Both the divorce and the new trading environment with the EU can be agreed within the 2 year window set under Article 50.

18th of January, Job Market
Better than Expected

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170306-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 38.3 KB

Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to be in line with expectations. Fed’s Fischer added that future U.S. fiscal policies are still unclear.

Significantly worse than expected trade balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected and China’s Manufacturing PMI beats expectations though.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

We are entering a sideways movement phase. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, buyers trigger a correction between 0.7525 and 0.7597 but the very support is 0.7525, first, and 0.7440 finally and eventually.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected

18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year

15th of September, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

18th of October, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe said that Inflation Expectations declined, but not that much and that current level of AUD and rates is suitable for economy
In the meantime New Zealand Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in 3Q

20th of October, Job Market Data
Worse than Expected

26th of October, Inflation Data (CPI)
Higher than Expected

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

17th of November, Employment Change
Slightly Worse than Expected

23rd of November, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected (for the 5th Quarter in a row)

30th of November, Building Approvals + Australia Private Sector Credit
Building Approvals Worse than Expected, Private Sector Credit Better than Expected

2nd of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected (for the 3rd Month in a row)

6th of December, Interest Rate Decision + RBA Statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.50% As Expected, while noting a stronger Aussie could complicate efforts to rebalance the economy.

7th of December, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Worse than Expected

15th of December, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD


61

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170309-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 35.7 KB

U.S. ADP nonfarm payrolls surge in February, blasting past consensus. Focus on today’s ECB Press Conference.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

Resistance area @1.061 successfully rejected price down. Now there is room down below 1.05 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: French Non-farm Payrolls + ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference


USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170309-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 33 KB

U.S. ADP nonfarm payrolls surge in February, blasting past consensus.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Test of 1.23 area, strong support, failed. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, a failure of that level would consequently lead down to 1.217 area as next target. Now eyes on 1.197 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2295
2nd Resistance: 1.2410
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.


AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170309-SGT-Markets.jpg700×338 37.5 KB

U.S. ADP nonfarm payrolls surge in February, blasting past consensus.

RBA held Interest Rates unchanged at 1.50% as expected.

Significantly worse than expected trade balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected and China’s Manufacturing PMI beats expectations though.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Next support under test is 0.7440.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD