FX Analysis by SGT Markets

EUR/USD

U.S. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 155,000 in November, lower than expected, and Unemployment Rate steady.

Services PMI data in the Eurozone ticked up.

Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) ticked down after German Unemployment release was positive.
Last U.S. GDP data ticked lower.

German Manufacturing PMI data came worse than expected.
German and Eurozone GDP as expected.
Recently U.S. CPI (Inflation) ticked lower.

According to a Reuters poll, a median of analysts’ forecasts show three more increases next year, taking the federal funds rate to 3.00-3.25 percent by end-2019. But the poll also showed economists have increased the probability of a U.S. recession in the next two years to a median 35 percent.

Repeating the ECB’s standard policy guidance, Coeure recently stated that significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed to raise inflation back to the bank’s target of almost 2 percent.

Price was lying on a very important Demand Area (1.12 Support) and we expected a bouncing up starting from that precise level (Second Target Resistance: 1.15 area). This just happened but now we are in overbought.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1. 1370 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected

12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

GBP/USD

Eyes on today UK GDP. Last UK Services PMI in freefall (worst data since 2016).
Last U.S. GDP data ticked lower but shadows casted on smooth Brexit deal are starting to impact seriously. The worst-case scenario would be no-deal happening by accident or design.

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls lower than expected and Unemployment Rate steady.

UK Retail Sales data worse than expected. UK CPI (Inflation) ticked lower than expected too.
UK Job Market Worse than expected again.

EU leaders approved the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the bloc, the Brexit deal will have to pass a vote in the British parliament in early December.

According to a Reuters poll, a median of analysts’ forecasts show three more increases next year, taking the federal funds rate to 3.00-3.25 percent by end-2019. But the poll also showed economists have increased the probability of a U.S. recession in the next two years to a median 35 percent.

We are Bearish from Neutral. Test of 1.2715 Demand Area is crucial. If a clear breakout happens, then next target will be 1.259 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.3023
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2715
2nd Support: 1.2590

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent

10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected

16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Last Australia GDP data clearly disappointed analysts’ expectations.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate unchanged at a record low Tuesday as it gauges the impact of a housing market slowdown on the nation’s economy. Governor Philip Lowe and his board left the cash at 1.5 percent, as expected and as they have since August 2016. “Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined,” he said in a statement.

Last Australia Inflation data ticked lower.
Australia New Home Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure still on the downbeat. Last Australia Employment Change finally on the upbeat.

Richard Clarida, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that interest rates were near neutral, but indicated that a December rate hike is still possible.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were clearly in overbought area, and 0.74 was tested again for leaving the game to downside cycles. First target 0.725, second target 0.719.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7408
2nd Resistance: 0.7480
1st Support: 0.7250
2nd Support: 0.7190

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Eyes to today Eurozone CPI (Inflation data) release.

Last German Manufacturing PMI dropped disappointed analysts’ expectations.
U.S. Retail Sales data strong while recently U.S. CPI (Inflation) ticked lower.

As the euro area faces global trade conflicts and unresolved Brexit negotiations, reduced exports and a slowdown in spending and investment have cut the pace of euro-area growth in half during the last quarter. Since then, data have pointed to persistent weakness.

Services PMI data in the Eurozone ticked up. Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) ticked down after German Unemployment release was positive.

Repeating the ECB’s standard policy guidance, Coeure recently stated that significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed to raise inflation back to the bank’s target of almost 2 percent.

Price was lying on a very important Demand Area (1.12 Support) and we expected a bouncing up starting from that precise level (Second Target Resistance: 1.15 area). This just happened but now we are in overbought and we expect price to test again the floor below 1.13.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1. 1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected

12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

UK GDP ticked down again and last Manufacturing Production release disappointed everyone. Last UK Services PMI in freefall (worst data since 2016).
UK Retail Sales data worse than expected. UK CPI (Inflation) ticked lower than expected too.

We are Bearish from Neutral. Test of 1.26 Demand Area is crucial. A clear breakout just happened, then next target will be around 1.23 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2715
2nd Resistance: 1.2880
1st Support: 1.2340
2nd Support: 1.2300

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent

10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected

16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Eyes to Australia RBA interest rates decision, later today.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data strong.

Last Australia GDP data clearly disappointed analysts’ expectations.

At the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate unchanged. Governor Philip Lowe and his board left the cash at 1.5 percent, as expected and as they have since August 2016. “Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined,” he said in a statement.

Last Australia Inflation data ticked lower.
Australia New Home Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure still on the downbeat. Last Australia Employment Change finally on the upbeat.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were clearly in overbought area, and 0.74 was tested again for leaving the game to downside cycles. First target 0.725, second target 0.719. Now 0.719 will work as ground for bulls, so a consolidation will happen. In the case price will break 0.725 then room up to 0.74. In the case price will break 0.719 then room down to 0.71.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7408
2nd Resistance: 0.7480
1st Support: 0.7190
2nd Support: 0.7120

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Ears out to U.S. Fed Meeting and Interest Rates.

Eurozone CPI (Inflation data) ticked lower (below 2.0%). “The latest data and survey results have been weaker than expected”, ECB President Mario Draghi said at the recent conference following last week’s governing council meeting. “This may suggest some slower growth momentum ahead”. But the central bank nonetheless will end asset purchases.

Last German Manufacturing PMI dropped disappointed analysts’ expectations.
U.S. Retail Sales data strong while recently U.S. CPI (Inflation) ticked lower.

As the euro area faces global trade conflicts and unresolved Brexit negotiations, reduced exports and a slowdown in spending and investment have cut the pace of euro-area growth in half during the last quarter. Since then, data have pointed to persistent weakness.

Price was lying on a very important Demand Area (1.12 Support) and we expected a bouncing up starting from that precise level (Second Target Resistance: 1.15 area). This just happened but now we are in overbought and we expect price to test again the floor below 1.13.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1. 1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected

12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

Ears out to U.S. Fed Meeting and Interest Rates.

Eyes on today UK CPI (Inflation data).

UK GDP ticked down again and last Manufacturing Production release disappointed everyone. Last UK Services PMI in freefall (worst data since 2016).
UK Retail Sales data worse than expected. UK CPI (Inflation) ticked lower than expected too.

We are Bearish from Neutral. Test of 1.26 Demand Area is crucial. A clear breakout just happened, then next target will be around 1.23 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2715
2nd Resistance: 1.2880
1st Support: 1.2340
2nd Support: 1.2300

GBP

Recent Facts:

25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent

10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected

16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: UK CPI (Inflation data)

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Ears out to U.S. Fed Meeting and Interest Rates.

Last U.S. Retail Sales data strong.

Last Australia GDP data clearly disappointed analysts’ expectations.

At the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate unchanged. Governor Philip Lowe and his board left the cash at 1.5 percent, as expected and as they have since August 2016. “Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined,” he said in a statement.

Last Australia Inflation data ticked lower.
Australia New Home Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure still on the downbeat. Last Australia Employment Change finally on the upbeat.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were clearly in overbought area, and 0.74 was tested again for leaving the game to downside cycles. First target 0.725, second target 0.719. Now 0.719 will work as ground for bulls, so a consolidation will happen. In the case price will break 0.725 then room up to 0.74. In the case price will break 0.719 then room down to 0.71.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7408
2nd Resistance: 0.7480
1st Support: 0.7190
2nd Support: 0.7120

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Forex Analysis EUR/USD | January 01/2019 | sgtmarkets.com |

The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points to a range of 2.25% to 2.5% but Signals Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019. The interest-rate outlook for both 2020 and 2021 was lowered to 3.1% from 3.4%, which guides to one hike that year.

Eurozone CPI (Inflation data) ticked lower (below 2.0%). “The latest data and survey results have been weaker than expected”, ECB President Mario Draghi said at the recent conference following last week’s governing council meeting. “This may suggest some slower growth momentum ahead”. But the central bank nonetheless will end asset purchases.

Last German Manufacturing PMI dropped disappointed analysts’ expectations.
Last U.S. GDP data ticked lower. U.S. Retail Sales data strong while recently U.S. CPI (Inflation) ticked lower.

As the euro area faces global trade conflicts and unresolved Brexit negotiations, reduced exports and a slowdown in spending and investment have cut the pace of euro-area growth in half during the last quarter. Since then, data have pointed to persistent weakness.

Price was lying on a very important Demand Area (1.12 Support) and we expected a bouncing up starting from that precise level (Second Target Resistance: 1.15 area). This just happened but now we are in overbought and we expect price to test again the floor below 1.13.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1. 1490
2nd Resistance: 1.1567
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

GBP/USD

Forex Analysis GBP/USD | January 01/2019 | sgtmarkets.com |

Eyes to today UK Manufacturing PMI.

GBP/USD pair upside appears limited by Brexit uncertainties and thin volumes. Last U.S. GDP data ticked lower. UK Retail Sales on the upbeat, finally, after UK CPI (Inflation data) ticked lower as expected.
UK GDP ticked down again and last Manufacturing Production release disappointed everyone. Last UK Services PMI in freefall (worst data since 2016).

We are Bearish from Neutral. Test of 1.26 Demand Area is crucial. A clear breakout just happened, then next target will be around 1.23 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2715
2nd Resistance: 1.2880
1st Support: 1.2340
2nd Support: 1.2300

GBP

Recent Facts:

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

Eyes to today release: Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Forex Analysis AUD/USD | January 01/2019 | sgtmarkets.com |

AUD remains vulnerable on the downside.
Last Australia Employment data contrasted and last GDP data clearly disappointed analysts’ expectations. Last Australia Inflation data also ticked lower.

At the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate unchanged. Governor Philip Lowe and his board left the cash at 1.5 percent, as expected and as they have since August 2016. “Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined,” he said in a statement.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were clearly in overbought area, and 0.74 was tested again for leaving the game to downside cycles. Now 0.719 will work as ground for bulls, so a consolidation will happen as price-break around 0.719 led down to 0.71.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7190
2nd Resistance: 0.7250
1st Support: 0.7122 (fake breakout)
2nd Support: 0.7044

AUD

Recent Facts:

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

https://sgtmarkets.com/en/market-news/forex-analysis-2019-01-02/

EUR/USD

Although the December jobs report was exceptionally strong with the US economy adding the most jobs since February, the Federal Reserve signaled fewer rate hikes and Fed Chair Powell reinforced that outlook by saying that while jobs and wage data were strong, they do not raise the Fed’s concern about inflation. Instead, Powell expressed concern about China weakness spilling over to other parts of the world, saying that he feels that the drop in the manufacturing ISM report is worth watching.

German Unemployment better than analysts’ expectations.
Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) ticked down.

Price was lying on a very important Demand Area (1.12 Support) and we expected a bouncing up starting from that precise level (Second Target Resistance: 1.15 area). This is happening in cycles and now we expect price to test again the ceil around 1.14 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1. 1490
2nd Resistance: 1.1567
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

GBP/USD

UK service and manufacturing activity accelerated at the end of the year but it is hard to imagine that any breakout will be sustainable until we know the resolution of the Parliament Brexit vote. The debate will be held this coming week followed by a vote the week of January 14. The vote was postponed from December in the hopes that time would allow Prime Minister May to convince more lawmakers to support her plan. So far, it doesn’t seem like she will win the support that she needs and that means Britain will leave the EU on March 29 with no deal – the worst-case scenario for GBP.

UK Services PMI beat than the forecast. UK Manufacturing PMI also better than expected but UK Construction PMI again below 53.

Last U.S. GDP data ticked lower. UK Retail Sales on the upbeat, finally, after UK CPI (Inflation data) ticked lower as expected.
UK GDP ticked down again.

We Neutral from Bearish. Test of 1.272 Demand Area is crucial. If a clear breakout will happen, then the next target will be around 1.288 area. In the opposite case, a test of 1.259 will ask for consolidation waves.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2715
2nd Resistance: 1.2880
1st Support: 1.2340
2nd Support: 1.2300

GBP

Recent Facts:

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

In Australia, the CBA upgraded its December reading of service-sector activity in Australia. Trade talks between the US and China continue and China does modest concessions in hopes of a deal. The PMI, trade balance and retail sales reports will go a long way in telling us how much the slowdown in China hurt Australia’s economy at the end of the year – if at all. The bottom in AUD/USD seems to be already happening.

Last Australia Employment data contrasted and last GDP data clearly disappointed analysts’ expectations. Last Australia Inflation data also ticked lower.

At the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate unchanged. Governor Philip Lowe and his board left the cash at 1.5 percent, as expected and as they have since August 2016. “Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined,” he said in a statement.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were clearly in overbought area, and 0.74 was tested again for leaving the game to downside cycles. Now, we are in the opposite excess and, as we wrote, 0.719 will be regained as ground for further bulls, so a consolidation will happen as price will reconquer 0.72 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7190
2nd Resistance: 0.7250
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Eyes to today Eurozone CPI data.

ECB President Mario Draghi said that the Eurozone’s economy is not heading for a recession but its slowdown could last longer than expected.

Both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) show caution on planned measures to tighten monetary policy.
Fed members indicated they could afford to be “patient” about future rate hikes, citing a list of concerns including volatility in financial markets, slowing global growth and muted inflation pressures.

Although the December jobs report was exceptionally strong with the US economy adding the most jobs since February, the Federal Reserve signaled fewer rate hikes and Fed Chair Powell reinforced that outlook by saying that while jobs and wage data were strong, they do not raise the Fed’s concern about inflation. Instead, Powell expressed concern about China weakness spilling over to other parts of the world, saying that he feels that the drop in the manufacturing ISM report is worth watching.

German Unemployment better than analysts’ expectations.
Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) ticked down.

We are Oversold from Neutral. Now we expect price to test again 1.15 area. If it works again as Support then room up to 1.18 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1. 1567
2nd Resistance: 1.1720
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

Eyes to today release: CPI

USD

Recent Facts:

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

GBP/USD

UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal was voted down by a hefty margin. The withdrawal deal, which sets out the terms of the U.K.’s exit from the European Union, received 202 votes for and 432 against. Some have suggested the heavy margin of defeat could either delay Britain’s March 29 departure date or bring about a second referendum that could end up cancelling Brexit.

U.S. Fed members indicated they could afford to be “patient” about future rate hikes, citing a list of concerns including volatility in financial markets, slowing global growth and muted inflation pressures.

We are Neutral from Bearish. Target around 1.288 area already hit, as written in the previous commentaries. Now eyes either on 1.30 area (if 1.2880 level will break) or back to 1.27 area (if 1.2880 will resist).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2880
2nd Resistance: 1.3023
1st Support: 1.2715
2nd Support: 1.2590

GBP

Recent Facts:

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Last Australia Retail Sales data better than the forecast.

In Australia, the CBA upgraded its December reading of service-sector activity in Australia. Trade talks between the US and China continue and China does modest concessions in hopes of a deal. The PMI, trade balance and retail sales reports will go a long way in telling us how much the slowdown in China hurt Australia’s economy at the end of the year – if at all. The bottom in AUD/USD seems to be already happening.

Last Australia Employment data contrasted and last GDP data clearly disappointed analysts’ expectations. Last Australia Inflation data also ticked lower.

At the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate unchanged. Governor Philip Lowe and his board left the cash at 1.5 percent, as expected and as they have since August 2016. “Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined,” he said in a statement.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were clearly in overbought area, and 0.74 was tested again for leaving the game to downside cycles. As we wrote, 0.719 to be regained as ground for further bulls, next target 0.72 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7190
2nd Resistance: 0.7250
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

ECB President Mario Draghi said that the Eurozone’s economy is not heading for a recession but its slowdown could last longer than expected.

Both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) show caution on planned measures to tighten monetary policy.
Fed members indicated they could afford to be “patient” about future rate hikes, citing a list of concerns including volatility in financial markets, slowing global growth and muted inflation pressures.

Although the December jobs report was exceptionally strong with the US economy adding the most jobs since February, the Federal Reserve signaled fewer rate hikes and Fed Chair Powell reinforced that outlook by saying that while jobs and wage data were strong, they do not raise the Fed’s concern about inflation. Instead, Powell expressed concern about China weakness spilling over to other parts of the world, saying that he feels that the drop in the manufacturing ISM report is worth watching.

German Unemployment better than analysts’ expectations.

We are Oversold from Neutral. Now we expect price to test again 1.15 area. If it works again as Support then room up to 1.18 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1. 1567
2nd Resistance: 1.1720
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected

5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected

14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected

21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)

29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected

18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of April, German Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)
Slightly Better than Expected

27th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

15th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected

1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected

27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected

13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected

28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected

2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected

16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

27th of April, U.S. GDP data
Better than Expected

1st of May, ISM Manufacturing
Worse than expected

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

GBP/USD

Ears out to today UK Prime Minister May speech.

Last UK Retail Sales data came worse than analysts’ expectations.

As U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May seeks cross-party consensus on a Brexit deal after her government won a vote of confidence, traders continue to bet on the UK securing a withdrawal deal, pushing the pound higher against the greenback.

U.S. Fed members indicated they could afford to be “patient” about future rate hikes, citing a list of concerns including volatility in financial markets, slowing global growth and muted inflation pressures.

We are Neutral from Bearish. Target around 1.288 area already hit, as written in the previous commentaries. Now eyes either on 1.30 area (if 1.2880 level will break) or back to 1.27 area (if 1.2880 will resist).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2880
2nd Resistance: 1.3023
1st Support: 1.2715
2nd Support: 1.2590

GBP

Recent Facts:

8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected

14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected

10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected

19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected

16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected

9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Last Australia Retail Sales data better than the forecast while China industrial production give signs of weakness.

In Australia, the CBA upgraded its December reading of service-sector activity in Australia. Trade talks between the US and China continue and China does modest concessions in hopes of a deal. The PMI, trade balance and retail sales reports will go a long way in telling us how much the slowdown in China hurt Australia’s economy at the end of the year – if at all. The bottom in AUD/USD seems to be already happening.

Last Australia Employment data contrasted and last GDP data clearly disappointed analysts’ expectations. Last Australia Inflation data also ticked lower.

At the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate unchanged. Governor Philip Lowe and his board left the cash at 1.5 percent, as expected and as they have since August 2016. “Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined,” he said in a statement.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were clearly in overbought area, and 0.74 was tested again for leaving the game to downside cycles. As we wrote, 0.719 to be regained as ground for further bulls, next target 0.72 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7190
2nd Resistance: 0.7250
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected

17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative

30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected

1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected

7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

ECB President Mario Draghi said that the Eurozone’s economy is not heading for a recession but its slowdown could last longer than expected.

Both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) show caution on planned measures to tighten monetary policy.
Fed members indicated they could afford to be “patient” about future rate hikes, citing a list of concerns including volatility in financial markets, slowing global growth and muted inflation pressures.

Although the December jobs report was exceptionally strong with the US economy adding the most jobs since February, the Federal Reserve signaled fewer rate hikes and Fed Chair Powell reinforced that outlook by saying that while jobs and wage data were strong, they do not raise the Fed’s concern about inflation. Instead, Powell expressed concern about China weakness spilling over to other parts of the world, saying that he feels that the drop in the manufacturing ISM report is worth watching.

We are Oversold from Neutral. Sitting on a very important Demand area. Now we expect price to test again 1.18 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1. 1567
2nd Resistance: 1.1720
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

GBP/USD

UK Job Market keeps strong, slightly better than the expectations. But last UK Retail Sales data came worse than analysts’ expectations.

UK PM May is speaking in Parliament and seeks support for a new Brexit deal. She said there is little support for a second referendum.

U.S. Fed members indicated they could afford to be “patient” about future rate hikes, citing a list of concerns including volatility in financial markets, slowing global growth and muted inflation pressures.

We are Neutral from Bearish. Target around 1.288 area already hit, as written in the previous commentaries. And eyes on 1.30 area (as 1.2880 level got broken).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.3023
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2880
2nd Support: 1.2715

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Eyes to Australia job Market, later today.

Last Australia Retail Sales data better than the forecast while China industrial production give signs of weakness.

In Australia, the CBA upgraded its December reading of service-sector activity in Australia. Trade talks between the US and China continue and China does modest concessions in hopes of a deal. The PMI, trade balance and retail sales reports will go a long way in telling us how much the slowdown in China hurt Australia’s economy at the end of the year – if at all. The bottom in AUD/USD seems to be already happening.

Last Australia Employment data contrasted and last GDP data clearly disappointed analysts’ expectations. Last Australia Inflation data also ticked lower.

At the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate unchanged. Governor Philip Lowe and his board left the cash at 1.5 percent, as expected and as they have since August 2016. “Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined,” he said in a statement.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were clearly in overbought area, and 0.74 was tested again for leaving the game to downside cycles. As we wrote, 0.719 to be regained as ground for further bulls, next target 0.72 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7190
2nd Resistance: 0.7250
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Investors have interpreted U.S. Fed’s statements as signaling more than just a pause in rate hikes. Pricing of federal funds futures contracts imply an expectation for no hikes in 2019.

Economists also expect the FOMC to make only small adjustments to their post-meeting statement.
ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy recently declared that the European Central Bank is committed to keeping interest rates low as it winds down its monetary stimulus to the economy. ECB President Mario Draghi said that the Eurozone’s economy is not heading for a recession but its slowdown could last longer than expected.

Last German Manufacturing PMI worse than expected, confirming a downside trend started at the beginning of 2018.

Although the December jobs report was exceptionally strong with the US economy adding the most jobs since February, the Federal Reserve signaled fewer rate hikes and Fed Chair Powell reinforced that outlook by saying that while jobs and wage data were strong, they do not raise the Fed’s concern about inflation. Instead, Powell expressed concern about China weakness spilling over to other parts of the world, saying that he feels that the drop in the manufacturing ISM report is worth watching.

We are Oversold from Neutral. Sitting on a very important Demand area. Now we expect price to test again 1.18 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1. 1567
2nd Resistance: 1.1720
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

USD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

GBP/USD

Goldman raised its probability of a no-deal Brexit to 15 percent from 10 percent, kept its probability of a delayed Brexit at 50 percent and revised down its probability of no Brexit to 35 percent from 40 percent.

UK Job Market keeps strong, slightly better than the expectations. But last UK Retail Sales data came worse than analysts’ expectations.

U.S. Fed members indicated they could afford to be “patient” about future rate hikes, citing a list of concerns including volatility in financial markets, slowing global growth and muted inflation pressures.

We are Neutral-Bullish. Target around 1.30 area (as 1.2880 level got broken) already hit. Now we expect a consolidation phase.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.3023
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2880
2nd Support: 1.2715

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Last Australia Inflation data ticked higher.

Last Australia job Market came better than expected. Last Australia Retail Sales also data better than the forecast while China industrial production give signs of weakness.

In Australia, the CBA upgraded its December reading of service-sector activity in Australia. Trade talks between the US and China continue and China does modest concessions in hopes of a deal. The PMI, trade balance and retail sales reports will go a long way in telling us how much the slowdown in China hurt Australia’s economy at the end of the year – if at all. The bottom in AUD/USD seems to be already happening.

At the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate unchanged. Governor Philip Lowe and his board left the cash at 1.5 percent, as expected and as they have since August 2016. “Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined,” he said in a statement.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were clearly in overbought area, and 0.74 was tested again for leaving the game to downside cycles. As we wrote, 0.719 to be regained as ground for further bulls, next target 0.72 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7190
2nd Resistance: 0.7250
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate stronger than expected.

Investors have interpreted U.S. Fed’s statements as signaling more than just a pause in rate hikes. Pricing of federal funds futures contracts imply an expectation for no hikes in 2019.

The Federal Reserve pledged to be patient with further interest rate hikes, signaling a potential end to its tightening cycle amid signs of slowing global growth. ECB President Mario Draghi said that the Eurozone’s economy is not heading for a recession but its slowdown could last longer than expected.

Last German Manufacturing PMI worse than expected, confirming a downside trend started at the beginning of 2018.

Although the December jobs report was exceptionally strong with the US economy adding the most jobs since February, the Federal Reserve signaled fewer rate hikes and Fed Chair Powell reinforced that outlook by saying that while jobs and wage data were strong, they do not raise the Fed’s concern about inflation. Instead, Powell expressed concern about China weakness spilling over to other parts of the world, saying that he feels that the drop in the manufacturing ISM report is worth watching.

We are Neutral from Oversold. Upside momentum next to exhaustion. Now we expect price to correct back to 1.14 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1. 1567
2nd Resistance: 1.1720
1st Support: 1.1370
2nd Support: 1.1237

EUR

Recent Facts:

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

USD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate stronger than expected.

Goldman raised its probability of a no-deal Brexit to 15 percent from 10 percent, kept its probability of a delayed Brexit at 50 percent and revised down its probability of no Brexit to 35 percent from 40 percent. The British Pound will be eyed by traders as the UK and EU attempt to reach a feasible Brexit deal before the deadline on March 29.

UK Job Market keeps strong, slightly better than the expectations. But last UK Retail Sales data came worse than analysts’ expectations.

U.S. Fed members indicated they could afford to be “patient” about future rate hikes, citing a list of concerns including volatility in financial markets, slowing global growth and muted inflation pressures.

We are Neutral-Bullish. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, target around 1.30 area (as 1.2880 level got broken) already hit. Now we expect a consolidation phase with some attempts to break 1.3023 fragile level to the downside.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.3023
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2880
2nd Support: 1.2715

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Eyes to Australia Retail Sales data, later today.

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate stronger than expected.

Last Australia Inflation data ticked higher. Last Australia job Market came better than expected. Last Australia Retail Sales also data better than the forecast while China industrial production give signs of weakness.

The Federal Reserve pledged to be patient with further interest rate hikes, signaling a potential end to its tightening cycle amid signs of slowing global growth.

At the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate unchanged. Governor Philip Lowe and his board left the cash at 1.5 percent, as expected and as they have since August 2016. “Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined,” he said in a statement.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were clearly in overbought area, and 0.74 was tested again for leaving the game to downside cycles. As we wrote, 0.719, first, and 0.72, now, to be regained as ground for further bulls.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7250
2nd Resistance: 0.7301
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

Eyes to today release: Retail Sales

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate stronger than expected but investors have interpreted U.S. Fed’s statements as signaling more than just a pause in rate hikes. Pricing of federal funds futures contracts imply an expectation for no hikes in 2019.

The Federal Reserve pledged to be patient with further interest rate hikes, signaling a potential end to its tightening cycle amid signs of slowing global growth. ECB President Mario Draghi said that the Eurozone’s economy is not heading for a recession but its slowdown could last longer than expected.

Last German Manufacturing PMI worse than expected, confirming a downside trend started at the beginning of 2018.

We are in clear Oversold. We expected price to correct back to 1.14 area. Now eyes to 1.13 area, clear place for an up-bounce.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1. 1567
2nd Resistance: 1.1720
1st Support: 1.1370
2nd Support: 1.1237

EUR

Recent Facts:

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

USD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

Eyes to today UK GDP and Manufacturing Production data.

UK Services PMI release disappointed analysts’ expectations. UK Job Market looks still resilient. But last UK Retail Sales data came worse than analysts’ expectations.

Goldman raised its probability of a no-deal Brexit to 15 percent from 10 percent, kept its probability of a delayed Brexit at 50 percent and revised down its probability of no Brexit to 35 percent from 40 percent. The British Pound will be eyed by traders as the UK and EU attempt to reach a feasible Brexit deal before the deadline on March 29.

We are Neutral-Bullish. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, target around 1.30 area (as 1.2880 level got broken) already hit. As we wrote, some attempts to break 1.3023 fragile level to the downside occurred. Now eyes to 1.28 area, great place for an up-bounce.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.3023
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2880
2nd Support: 1.2715

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes to today release: UK GDP and Manufacturing Production data.

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUD tumbled after Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe said the bank remained optimistic about the local economic outlook but acknowledged rates might fall if unemployment were to rise and inflation stay too low.

Last Australia Retail Sales worse than expected.

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate stronger than expected.

The Federal Reserve pledged to be patient with further interest rate hikes, signaling a potential end to its tightening cycle amid signs of slowing global growth.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were clearly in overbought area, and 0.74 was tested again for leaving the game to downside cycles. As we wrote, 0.719 to be regained and now eyes to 0.704 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7250
2nd Resistance: 0.7301
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Eyes to today U.S. CPI data.

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate stronger than expected but investors have interpreted U.S. Fed’s statements as signaling more than just a pause in rate hikes. Pricing of federal funds futures contracts imply an expectation for no hikes in 2019.

The Federal Reserve pledged to be patient with further interest rate hikes, signaling a potential end to its tightening cycle amid signs of slowing global growth. ECB President Mario Draghi said that the Eurozone’s economy is not heading for a recession but its slowdown could last longer than expected.

Last German Manufacturing PMI worse than expected, confirming a downside trend started at the beginning of 2018.

We are in clear Oversold. We expected price to correct back to 1.14 area. Now eyes to 1.13 area, clear place for an up-bounce.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1. 1567
2nd Resistance: 1.1720
1st Support: 1.1370
2nd Support: 1.1237

EUR

Recent Facts:

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

USD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

Eyes to today U.S. CPI data and UK CPI data.

UK GDP and UK Manufacturing Production data show clear slowdown.

UK Services PMI release disappointed analysts’ expectations. UK Job Market looks still resilient. But last UK Retail Sales data came worse than analysts’ expectations.

Goldman raised its probability of a no-deal Brexit to 15 percent from 10 percent, kept its probability of a delayed Brexit at 50 percent and revised down its probability of no Brexit to 35 percent from 40 percent. The British Pound will be eyed by traders as the UK and EU attempt to reach a feasible Brexit deal before the deadline on March 29.

We are Neutral-Bullish. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, target around 1.30 area (as 1.2880 level got broken) already hit. As we wrote, some attempts to break 1.3023 fragile level to the downside occurred. Now eyes to 1.28 area, great place for an up-bounce.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.3023
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2880
2nd Support: 1.2715

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUD tumbled after Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe said the bank remained optimistic about the local economic outlook but acknowledged rates might fall if unemployment were to rise and inflation stay too low.

Last Australia Retail Sales worse than expected.

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate stronger than expected.

The Federal Reserve pledged to be patient with further interest rate hikes, signaling a potential end to its tightening cycle amid signs of slowing global growth.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were clearly in overbought area, and 0.74 was tested again for leaving the game to downside cycles. As we wrote, 0.719 to be regained and now eyes to 0.704 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7250
2nd Resistance: 0.7301
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Last U.S. Retail Sales data came worse than analysts’ expectations.

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate stronger than expected but investors have interpreted U.S. Fed’s statements as signaling more than just a pause in rate hikes. Pricing of federal funds futures contracts imply an expectation for no hikes in 2019.

The Federal Reserve pledged to be patient with further interest rate hikes, signaling a potential end to its tightening cycle amid signs of slowing global growth. ECB President Mario Draghi said that the Eurozone’s economy is not heading for a recession but its slowdown could last longer than expected.

Last German Manufacturing PMI worse than expected, confirming a downside trend started at the beginning of 2018.

We are in clear Oversold. We expected price to correct back to 1.14 area. Now eyes to 1.13 area, clear place for an up-bounce.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1. 1567
2nd Resistance: 1.1720
1st Support: 1.1370
2nd Support: 1.1237

EUR

Recent Facts:

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

USD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

GBP/USD

Last UK CPI data ticked down again. UK GDP and UK Manufacturing Production data showed clear slowdown signs.

UK Services PMI release disappointed analysts’ expectations. UK Job Market looks still resilient. But last UK Retail Sales data came worse than analysts’ expectations.

Goldman raised its probability of a no-deal Brexit to 15 percent from 10 percent, kept its probability of a delayed Brexit at 50 percent and revised down its probability of no Brexit to 35 percent from 40 percent. The British Pound will be eyed by traders as the UK and EU attempt to reach a feasible Brexit deal before the deadline on March 29.

We are Neutral-Bullish. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, target around 1.30 area (as 1.2880 level got broken) already hit. As we wrote, some attempts to break 1.3023 fragile level to the downside occurred. Now eyes to 1.28 area, still a great place for an up-bounce.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.3023
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2880
2nd Support: 1.2715

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUD tumbled after Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe said the bank remained optimistic about the local economic outlook but acknowledged rates might fall if unemployment were to rise and inflation stay too low.

Last Australia Retail Sales worse than expected.

U.S. Retail Sales data came worse than analysts’ expectations. Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate stronger than expected.

The Federal Reserve pledged to be patient with further interest rate hikes, signaling a potential end to its tightening cycle amid signs of slowing global growth.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were clearly in overbought area, and 0.74 was tested again for leaving the game to downside cycles. As we wrote, 0.719 to be regained and now eyes to 0.704 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7250
2nd Resistance: 0.7301
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Last U.S. Retail Sales data came worse than analysts’ expectations.

Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate stronger than expected but investors have interpreted U.S. Fed’s statements as signaling more than just a pause in rate hikes. Pricing of federal funds futures contracts imply an expectation for no hikes in 2019.

The Federal Reserve pledged to be patient with further interest rate hikes, signaling a potential end to its tightening cycle amid signs of slowing global growth. ECB President Mario Draghi said that the Eurozone’s economy is not heading for a recession but its slowdown could last longer than expected.

Last German Manufacturing PMI worse than expected, confirming a downside trend started at the beginning of 2018.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we were in clear Oversold. We expected price to correct back again to 1.14 area after bouncing up from 1.13 area. This occurred, now consolidation phase.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1. 1567
2nd Resistance: 1.1720
1st Support: 1.1370
2nd Support: 1.1237

EUR

Recent Facts:

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

USD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

GBP/USD

UK job Market data came once again below analysts’ expectations.

Last UK CPI data ticked down again. UK GDP and UK Manufacturing Production data showed clear slowdown signs.

UK Services PMI release disappointed analysts’ expectations. UK Job Market looks still resilient. But last UK Retail Sales data came worse than analysts’ expectations.

Goldman raised its probability of a no-deal Brexit to 15 percent from 10 percent, kept its probability of a delayed Brexit at 50 percent and revised down its probability of no Brexit to 35 percent from 40 percent. The British Pound will be eyed by traders as the UK and EU attempt to reach a feasible Brexit deal before the deadline on March 29.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.28 area was a great place for an up-bounce target around 1.30 area. This occurred. Now we are in a consolidation phase.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.3023
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2880
2nd Support: 1.2715

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:
See above.

AUD/USD

Eyes to Australia Job Market, later today.

RBA Monetary Policy Board saw significant uncertainties on the economic outlook as the housing markets nosedives. RBA members said they would continue to “assess the outlook carefully.

Last Australia Retail Sales worse than expected.

U.S. Retail Sales data came worse than analysts’ expectations. Last U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate stronger than expected.

The Federal Reserve pledged to be patient with further interest rate hikes, signaling a potential end to its tightening cycle amid signs of slowing global growth.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 0.719 to be regained and now eyes either to 0.72 area or to a consolidation around 0.719.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7250
2nd Resistance: 0.7301
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

Eyes to today release: Job Market

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

The recent comments by the ECB Governing Council member Angeloni, expressing concerns on the weakening Eurozone economy, could also remain a drag on the prices. However, expectations of an upturn in the Eurozone industrial activity for the month of January combined with the latest leg down in the greenback helps keep the buoyant tone intact around the pair.

In the view of analysts at Citibank, the Eurozone industrial output is expected to bounce in the month of January. “Looking ahead to 1Q-19, surveys continue to suggest that the level of order books remains high compared to the stocks of finished goods, indicating that IP growth could still re-accelerate in case of worries about global trade (US-China trade conflict and Brexit) dissipating somewhat.”

Now we are in clear oversold phase. Many attempts to regain 1.1370 will follow as bears will be pushed to insist on the 1.123 Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1. 1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1567
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

GBP/USD

Eyes on today UK Annual Budget release and Spring Forecast and UK Parliament vote on Brexit.

The British pound is higher against the dollar and euro, as the market leans on balance towards believing that Brexit will be softened, delayed or even cancelled.

The U.K. parliament rejected the government’s deal on leaving the European Union for a second time on Tuesday, effectively killing it as the EU has said it isn’t prepared to negotiate any more on the terms of leaving.

Last UK job Market data came once again below analysts’ expectations. Last UK CPI data ticked down again. UK GDP and UK Manufacturing Production data showed clear slowdown signs. UK Services PMI release disappointed analysts’ expectations.

1.328 Supply Area rejected recent price up-spikes. We are in a bullish phase with first target around 1.328 and second target around1.336 (important Supply Area).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3285
1st Support: 1.3023
2nd Support: 1.2880

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Annual Budget and Spring Forecast and UK Parliament vote on Brexit

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

A measure of Australian consumer confidence slumped to its lowest in over a year in March, adding to recent signs of weakness in the economy.

The Aussie has been sensitive to signs of a loss of economic momentum, particularly after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upbeat outlook last week failed to dispel bets it would have to lower rates eventually.

We expect a consolidation around 0.719, Supply Area, to re-occur. In the opposite scenario, a break below 0.698 could lead down to 1.675

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7250
2nd Resistance: 0.7301
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

The recent comments by the ECB Governing Council member Angeloni, expressing concerns on the weakening Eurozone economy, could also remain a drag on the prices. However, expectations of an upturn in the Eurozone industrial activity for the month of January combined with the latest leg down in the greenback helps keep the buoyant tone intact around the pair.

In the view of analysts at Citibank, the Eurozone industrial output is expected to bounce in the month of January. “Looking ahead to 1Q-19, surveys continue to suggest that the level of order books remains high compared to the stocks of finished goods, indicating that IP growth could still re-accelerate in case of worries about global trade (US-China trade conflict and Brexit) dissipating somewhat.”

Now we are in clear oversold phase. Many attempts to regain 1.1370 will follow as bears will be pushed to insist on the 1.123 Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1. 1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1567
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

GBP/USD

U.K. lawmakers voted in favor of requesting a delay to Brexit beyond March 29 by a vote of 412 to 202. If they manage to achieve cross-party support for a deal, likely a ‘softer Brexit’ sort of a deal, this could potentially be very good news for UK assets but if Parliament fails to come to an agreement, it would go to a second referendum.

The British pound is higher against the dollar and euro, as the market leans on balance towards believing that Brexit will be softened, delayed or even cancelled.

The U.K. parliament rejected the government’s deal on leaving the European Union for a second time on Tuesday, effectively killing it as the EU has said it isn’t prepared to negotiate any more on the terms of leaving.

Last UK job Market data came once again below analysts’ expectations. Last UK CPI data ticked down again. UK GDP and UK Manufacturing Production data showed clear slowdown signs. UK Services PMI release disappointed analysts’ expectations.

1.328 Supply Area rejected recent price up-spikes. We are in a bullish phase with first target around 1.328 and second target around1.336 (important Supply Area).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3285
1st Support: 1.3023
2nd Support: 1.2880

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

A measure of Australian consumer confidence slumped to its lowest in over a year in March, adding to recent signs of weakness in the economy.

The Aussie has been sensitive to signs of a loss of economic momentum, particularly after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upbeat outlook last week failed to dispel bets it would have to lower rates eventually.

We expect a consolidation around 0.719, Supply Area, to re-occur. In the opposite scenario, a break below 0.698 could lead down to 1.675

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7250
2nd Resistance: 0.7301
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

The recent comments by the ECB Governing Council member Angeloni, expressing concerns on the weakening Eurozone economy, could also remain a drag on the prices. The European Central Bank needs to review how it conducts policy given its failure to lift inflation back to target despite years of extraordinary stimulus.

In the view of analysts at Citibank, the Eurozone industrial output is expected to bounce in the month of January. “Looking ahead to 1Q-19, surveys continue to suggest that the level of order books remains high compared to the stocks of finished goods, indicating that IP growth could still re-accelerate in case of worries about global trade (US-China trade conflict and Brexit) dissipating somewhat.”

Now we are in clear oversold phase. Many attempts to regain 1.1370 will follow as bears will be pushed to insist on the 1.123 Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1.1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1567
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

GBP/USD

U.K. lawmakers voted in favor of requesting a delay to Brexit beyond March 29 by a vote of 412 to 202. May Prepares 3rd Brexit Vote: if they manage to achieve cross-party support for a deal, likely a ‘softer Brexit’ sort of a deal, this could potentially be very good news for UK assets but if Parliament fails to come to an agreement, it would go to a second referendum.

The British pound is higher against the dollar and euro, as the market leans on balance towards believing that Brexit will be softened, delayed or even cancelled.

The U.K. parliament rejected the government’s deal on leaving the European Union for a second time on Tuesday, effectively killing it as the EU has said it isn’t prepared to negotiate any more on the terms of leaving.

Last UK job Market data came once again below analysts’ expectations. Last UK CPI data ticked down again. UK GDP and UK Manufacturing Production data showed clear slowdown signs. UK Services PMI release disappointed analysts’ expectations.

1.328 Supply Area rejected recent price up-spikes. We are in a bullish phase with first target around 1.328 and second target around1.336 (important Supply Area).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3285
1st Support: 1.3023
2nd Support: 1.2880

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:
4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

AUD/USD

Ears out to Australia RBA Meeting Minutes, later today.

A measure of Australian consumer confidence slumped to its lowest in over a year in March, adding to recent signs of weakness in the economy.

The Aussie has been sensitive to signs of a loss of economic momentum, particularly after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upbeat outlook last week failed to dispel bets it would have to lower rates eventually.

We expect a consolidation around 0.719, Supply Area, to re-occur. In the opposite scenario, a break below 0.698 could lead down to 1.675

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7250
2nd Resistance: 0.7301
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

EUR/USD

Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data came very disappointing. The European Central Bank needs to review how it conducts policy given its failure to lift inflation back to target despite years of extraordinary stimulus.

On the other hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve abandoned forecasts for any interest rate hikes this year.

As written in the previous commentaries, we were in clear oversold phase. As written, many attempts to regain 1.1370 followed and now we expect a consolidation around that level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1. 1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1567
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

USD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

GBP/USD

Goldman Sachs recently lowered its expectations of UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal getting ratified, and hiked its estimate of the chances of a “no-deal” exit from the European Union.

UK CPI (Inflation) data ticked up.
The U.S. Federal Reserve abandoned forecasts for any interest rate hikes this year.

1.3203 Resistance worked fiercely. Now we have 2 scenarios. Scenario 1 is with bulls buying on 1.3090 for getting over 1.33 again. Scenario 2 leads down to 1.28 (if 1.302 Area will be broken).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3285
1st Support: 1.3023
2nd Support: 1.2880

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:
4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

AUD/USD

A fall in funding costs for Australia’s biggest banks is raising the prospect that they could hand on the savings to consumers in the form of lower lending rates, which would in turn reduce pressure on the central bank to ease policy.

In the U.S., the U.S. Federal Reserve abandoned forecasts for any interest rate hikes this year, in Australia last Australia Job Market came worse than expected.

A measure of Australian consumer confidence slumped to its lowest in over a year in March, adding to recent signs of weakness in the economy.

As written in the previous commentaries, we expect a consolidation around 0.719, Supply Area, to re-occur. In the opposite scenario, a break below 0.698 could lead down to 1.675

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7250
2nd Resistance: 0.7301
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

30th of May, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

EUR/USD

Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data came very disappointing. The European Central Bank needs to review how it conducts policy given its failure to lift inflation back to target despite years of extraordinary stimulus.

On the other hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve abandoned forecasts for any interest rate hikes this year.

As written in the previous commentaries, we were in clear oversold phase. As written, many attempts to regain 1.1370 followed and now we expect a consolidation around that level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1. 1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1567
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

USD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

GBP/USD

Prime Minister Theresa May stated that she will not put her recent Withdrawal Agreement to a vote due to continued lack of majority support as the latest Brexit drama drags on.
Currency markets still await clarity on the next direction of Brexit and its impact on the Sterling as the risk of UK departing the EU without a deal remains elevated.

UK CPI (Inflation) data ticked up.
The U.S. Federal Reserve abandoned forecasts for any interest rate hikes this year.

1.3203 Resistance worked fiercely. Now we have 2 scenarios. Scenario 1 is with bulls buying on 1.3090 for getting over 1.33 again. Scenario 2 leads down to 1.28 (if 1.302 Area will be broken).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3285
1st Support: 1.3023
2nd Support: 1.2880

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Eyes on today Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision on Interest Rate.

A fall in funding costs for Australia’s biggest banks is raising the prospect that they could hand on the savings to consumers in the form of lower lending rates, which would in turn reduce pressure on the central bank to ease policy.

In the U.S., the U.S. Federal Reserve abandoned forecasts for any interest rate hikes this year, in Australia last Australia Job Market came worse than expected.

A measure of Australian consumer confidence slumped to its lowest in over a year in March, adding to recent signs of weakness in the economy.

As written in the previous commentaries, we expect a consolidation around 0.719, Supply Area, to re-occur. In the opposite scenario, a break below 0.698 could lead down to 1.675

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7250
2nd Resistance: 0.7301
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

EUR/USD

Last German Manufacturing PMI (at the lowest since 2012) and German Job Market data worse than expected, also Eurozone CPI ticked lower.

Last U.S. GDP data ticked down.

Last German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data came very disappointing. Villeroy said that trade tensions and uncertainty about China’s economic outlook were weighing on global growth while a slowdown in Germany and Italy were pulling down euro zone growth.

As written in the previous commentaries, we were in clear oversold phase. As written, many attempts to regain 1.1370 followed and now we expect to regain that level, first, and then to consolidate around that level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 1. 1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1567
1st Support: 1.1237
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

30th of May, German Unemployment Change + German CPI (Preliminary)
Better than Expected

1st of June, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

15th of June, Eurozone CPI
As Expected (1.9%)

29th of June, German Job Market
Better than Expected

10th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July: German Manufacturing
Better than Expected

30th of July: German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI + German Unemployment
CPI Higher than Expected, German Unemployment Worse than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

14th of August, German and Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

31st of August, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

21st of September, French Manufacturing, German Manufacturing
Worse than Expected

30th of October, German Job Market + Eurozone GDP
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of November, German and Eurozone GDP
As Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

29th of November, German Unemployment, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected

4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected

24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected

29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected

1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected

1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected

USD

Recent Facts:

4th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

10th of May, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

30th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than expected

1st of June, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

12th of June, Core CPI
Higher than Expected

27th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Better than Expected

28th of June, GDP
Worse than expected

6th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than expected

11th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

12th of July, CPI
As Expected (0.2%, 2.3%)

27th of July: GDP
As Expected

3rd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than expected

9th of August, PPI
Lower than expected

15th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of August, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than expected

29th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
Higher than Expected

13th of September, Core CPI
Lower than expected

26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of “accommodative”.

27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected

3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected

11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected

15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected

28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected

7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected

14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019

21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected

1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected

28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected

GBP/USD

Last UK Construction PMI disappointing analysts’ forecast.

Last UK GDP data ticked higher than expected.

Last U.S. GDP data ticked down.

The EU has delayed the Brexit process until at least the 12th of April, but amid a lack of clarity over what kind of Brexit UK Parliament wants there is still broad concern that Brexit could end with a no-deal outcome just over two weeks from now.

The legal default, for now, will be for the U.K. to leave the European Union in 11 days with no deal in place.

1.3203 Resistance now broken definitely. Bulls buying from on 1.3090 aim at 1.33 and over. Second target is 1.3460. Before a strong bounce there are chances for a test of the First Support around 1.302 Demand Area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1.3460
2nd Resistance: 1.3362
1st Support: 1.3023
2nd Support: 1.2880

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

27th of April, UK GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of May, BoE
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold and said that any future rate increases are likely to be gradual and limited in their extent

15th of May, Job Market data
Worse than Expected

23rd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected

24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected

14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected

3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected

10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected

19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected

20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected

16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)

5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected

14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected

15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)

10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected

20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected

16th of January, CPI
As Expected

18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected

11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected

19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected

19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted

20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected

21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected

29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Eyes to Australia Retail Sales, later today.

U.S. GDP data ticked down.

A fall in funding costs for Australia’s biggest banks is raising the prospect that they could hand on the savings to consumers in the form of lower lending rates, which would in turn reduce pressure on the central bank to ease policy.

A measure of Australian consumer confidence slumped to its lowest in over a year in March, adding to recent signs of weakness in the economy.

0.719 is now a strong Resistance, an important Supply Area. We still think it will be broken on the upside, but it will take a while to occur. In the opposite scenario, a definitive break below 0.698 could lead down to 1.675. As we are lying on an important Support, we are in oversold.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Oversold
1st Resistance: 0.7250
2nd Resistance: 0.7301
1st Support: 0.7000
2nd Support: 0.6960

AUD

Recent Facts:

5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing

6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

25th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected

7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of May, RBA Minute Meeting
Dovish

17th of May, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Slightly Better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected

6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected

19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected

16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected

30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected

13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected

5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected

18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected

30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected

31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected

5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected

5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.