FX Analysis by SGT Markets

Commercial Content Analysts
62

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170310-SGT-Markets.jpg700×338 34.4 KB

Eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls.

The ECB resisted pressure to start tightening monetary policy, saying that it stands ready to extend the size or the duration of its asset purchase program if the economic outlook worsens.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

Resistance area @1.061 successfully rejected price down. Now there is room down below 1.05 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0610
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0463
2nd Support: 1.0399

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170310-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 32.8 KB

Eyes on today Eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and UK Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Test of 1.23 area, strong support, failed. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, a failure of that level would consequently lead down to 1.217 area as next target. Now eyes on 1.197 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2295
2nd Resistance: 1.2410
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance


USD

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170310-SGT-Markets.jpg700×338 37.5 KB

Eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls.

RBA held Interest Rates unchanged at 1.50% as expected.

Significantly worse than expected trade balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected and China’s Manufacturing PMI beats expectations though.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Next support under test is 0.7440.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD


64

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170313-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 35 KB

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beated forecasts but wage inflation didn’t. Focus on today President Draghi Speech.

The ECB resisted pressure to start tightening monetary policy, saying that it stands ready to extend the size or the duration of its asset purchase program if the economic outlook worsens.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

Resistance area nearby current price @1.0679 is likely to reject price down, below 1.061 area back again.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0463

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170313-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 34 KB

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beated forecasts but wage inflation didn’t.
UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Test of 1.23 area, strong support, failed. As we wrote in the previous commentaries, a failure of that level would consequently lead down to 1.217 area as next target.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2295
2nd Resistance: 1.2410
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170313-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 37.6 KB

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beated forecasts but wage inflation didn’t.

RBA held Interest Rates unchanged at 1.50% as expected.

Significantly worse than expected trade balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected. Eyes on today China’s Industrial Production.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Next support under test is 0.7440.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD



65

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170315-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 35.8 KB

Markets are waiting for the Fed to take a decision regarding the U.S. Interest Rate. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beated forecasts but wage inflation didn’t.

The ECB resisted pressure to start tightening monetary policy, saying that it stands ready to extend the size or the duration of its asset purchase program if the economic outlook worsens.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

As we wrote previously, resistance area nearby current price @1.0679 rejects price down.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0782
1st Support: 1.0555
2nd Support: 1.0506

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

Eyes on today release: Core CPI + Retail Sales

Eyes on today release: FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170315-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 34.4 KB

Markets are waiting for the Fed to take a decision regarding the U.S. Interest Rate. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beated forecasts but wage inflation didn’t.
Eyes on today job market’s data. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Test of 1.217 ongoing. A failure of this level would consequently lead down to 1.197 area as next target.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2295
2nd Resistance: 1.2410
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Job Market

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170315-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 39 KB

Markets are waiting for the Fed to take a decision regarding the U.S. Interest Rate. China Industrial Production marks a progress higher than Expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beated forecasts but wage inflation didn’t.

RBA held Interest Rates unchanged at 1.50% as expected.

Significantly worse than expected trade balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected. Eyes on today China’s Industrial Production.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Important support around 0.75 area likely to be tested again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7597
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD


66

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170317-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 35.3 KB

Ms. Yellen was somehow dovish, as she said the US central bank would continue to provide accommodative monetary policy to support the US economy.

The ECB, on the other hand, resisted pressure to start tightening monetary policy, saying that it stands ready to extend the size or the duration of its asset purchase program if the economic outlook worsens.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

We are in overbought and we will likely see a drop from resistance area down to 1.0679 first. Then we project a retest around 1.061 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0610
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170317-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 34.4 KB

A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates and some among the majority who kept them at a record low.
Fed’s Chairwoman Yellen said the US central bank would continue to provide accommodative monetary policy to support the US economy.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Test of 1.2295 failed. We are heavily in overbought. First target 1.23 area, second target 1.217 again.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2410
2nd Resistance: 1.2530
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170317-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 39 KB

Fed’s Chairwoman Yellen said the US central bank would continue to provide accommodative monetary policy to support the US economy. Australia Employment data are below the expectations.

China Industrial Production marks a progress higher than Expected. In the USA., Nonfarm Payrolls beated forecasts but wage inflation didn’t.

Significantly worse than expected Trade Balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected. Eyes on today China’s Industrial Production.

In Australia, private sector credit gained 0.2%, below the 0.5% hike expected, while the current account for the fourth quarter came in at a deficit wider than expected. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Price is now stuck against a very important resistance area. If it will work then important supports around 0.75 area likely to be tested back again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD


67

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170320-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 35.1 KB

Fed speakers, including Chair Janet Yellen, are ahead this week as investors look for more clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

We are in overbought and we will likely see a drop from resistance area down to 1.0679 first. Then we project a retest around 1.061 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0610
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected


USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170320-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 33 KB

Await data on inflation from the UK and euro zone surveys on business activity as Britain braces for Brexit.

A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates and some among the majority who kept them at a record low.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Test of 1.2295 failed. We are still in overbought. First target 1.23 area, second target 1.217 again.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2410
2nd Resistance: 1.2530
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170320-SGT-Markets.jpg700×338 39.1 KB

Australia Employment data are below the expectations. China Industrial Production marks a progress higher than Expected. Significantly worse than expected Australian Trade Balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Price is now stuck against a very important resistance area. If it will work, then important supports around 0.75 area likely to be tested back again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter


68

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170321-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 35.1 KB

Fed speakers, including Chair Janet Yellen, are ahead as investors look for more clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

We are in overbought and we will likely see a drop from resistance area down to 1.0679 first. Then we project a retest around 1.061 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0610
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170321-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 34.1 KB

Today BoE Governor Carney Speaks and await data on inflation.

A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates and some among the majority who kept them at a record low.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

Test of 1.2295 failed. We are still in overbought as resistance around 1.2410 area works fine. First target 1.23 area, second target 1.217 again.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2410
2nd Resistance: 1.2530
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

Eyes on today release: CPI + Governor Carney Speech


USD

Recent Facts:

See above.


AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170321-SGT-Markets.jpg700×338 39 KB

Australia Employment data were below the expectations. China Industrial Production marked a progress higher than Expected. Significantly worse than expected Australian Trade Balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected along with a slower GDP growth. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Price is now stuck against a very important resistance area. If it will work, then important supports around 0.75 area likely to be tested back again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter

SGT Markets - Forex Broker and CFD


69

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170322-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 34.8 KB

Fed speakers, including Chair Janet Yellen, are ahead as investors look for more clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

We are in overbought and we will likely see a drop from resistance area down to 1.0679 first. Then we project a retest around 1.061 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but now things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0610
2nd Support: 1.0555


EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170322-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 34.1 KB

The pound rose to three-week highs against the dollar on Tuesday after data showing that the annual rate of inflation in the UK rose to the highest since September 2013 in February.

A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates and some among the majority who kept them at a record low.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations. Moreover, during last meeting BoE said that monetary policy could move in either direction.

1.2410 resistance area still under pressure (fake break-out).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2410
2nd Resistance: 1.2530
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected


USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170322-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 38 KB

Eyes on today RBNZ Interest Rate Decision.

Australia Employment data were below the expectations. China Industrial Production marked a progress higher than Expected. Significantly worse than expected Australian Trade Balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected along with a slower GDP growth. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Price is now stuck against a very important resistance area. It is working fine, then important supports around 0.75 area likely to be tested back again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
Forex Broker and CFD


70

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170323-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 35.1 KB

Chair Janet Yellen ahead as investors look for more clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France, Holland, Italy.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

We are in overbought and we will likely see a drop from resistance area down to 1.0679 first. Then we project a retest around 1.061 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0610
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170323-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 33.8 KB

The pound rose to three-week highs against the dollar on Tuesday after data showing that the annual rate of inflation in the UK rose to the highest since September 2013 in February.

A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates and some among the majority who kept them at a record low.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations.

1.2410 resistance area still under pressure (fake break-out).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2410
2nd Resistance: 1.2530
1st Support: 1.2169
2nd Support: 1.1968

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

Eyes on today release: Retail Sales


USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170323-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 38.3 KB

RBNZ held Interest Rates steady as expected.

Australia Employment data were below the expectations. China Industrial Production marked a progress higher than Expected. Significantly worse than expected Australian Trade Balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected along with a slower GDP growth. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Price is now stuck against a very important resistance area. It is working fine, then important supports around 0.75 area likely to be tested back again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

22nd of March, RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
…

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD


71

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Forex-Analysis-20170324-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 34.8 KB

Markets are heavily underestimating the impact that Trumponomics will have on USD. USD heavily undervaluated.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France, Holland, Italy.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

We are in overbought and we will likely see a drop from resistance area down to 1.0679 first. Then we project a retest around 1.061 area.

Investor sentiment remained cautious about USD as nothing is really clear about fiscal, tax and regulatory policy under the Trump administration but things may change abruptly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0610
2nd Support: 1.0555

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: German Manufacturing PMI


USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Core Durable Goods Orders

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Forex-Analysis-20170324-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 33.8 KB

Very good Retail Sales data. Good also the annual rate of inflation in the UK (rose to the highest since September 2013 in February) but Brexit setup will soon deteriorate all this progress in the GBP value.

A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates and some among the majority who kept them at a record low.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations.

1.2530 resistance started the pullback. Now eyes on 1.23 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2670
1st Support: 1.2295
2nd Support: 1.2169

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected


USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170324-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 38.8 KB

RBNZ held Interest Rates steady as expected.

Australia Employment data were below the expectations. China Industrial Production marked a progress higher than Expected. Significantly worse than expected Australian Trade Balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected along with a slower GDP growth. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected.

There are some speculation that the economy may need more monetary help going forward. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently affirmed the scope for more rate cuts is slim to none from the current record low of 1.5%.

Price stuck against our 0.7735, as said in the previous commentaries. It reacted fine, then important supports around 0.75 area likely to be tested back again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7525
2nd Support: 0.7440

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

Seea above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD


72

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170327-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 35.6 KB

Markets are underestimating the impact that Trumponomics will have on USD, especially now that the U.S. House of Representatives’ withdrew a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare. On the other hand, last Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index print was pretty good, on the contrary the U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France, Holland, Italy.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

1.085 area is a very important resistance.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0856
2nd Resistance: 1.0950
1st Support: 1.0782
2nd Support: 1.0679

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

24th of March, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170327-SGT-Markets.jpg700×338 35.6 KB

Good UK Retail Sales data, on the other hand the U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected.
Good also the annual rate of inflation in the UK (rose to the highest since September 2013 in February) but Brexit setup will soon deteriorate all this progress in the GBP value.

A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates and some among the majority who kept them at a record low.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations.

1.2530 very important resistance started the pullback. Now eyes on 1.23 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2705
1st Support: 1.2380
2nd Support: 1.2200

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170327-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 39.7 KB

The U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected and the U.S. House of Representatives’ withdrew a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare.

A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers has agreed to review whether a global pact to limit supplies should be extended by six months. Oil sector analysts said the lack of an immediate extension could drag on crude prices.

Australia Employment data were below the expectations. China Industrial Production marked a progress higher than Expected. Significantly worse than expected Australian Trade Balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected along with a slower GDP growth. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected though.

Price stuck against our 0.7735, as said in the previous commentaries. It reacted fine, then important supports around 0.75 area likely to be tested back again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7585
2nd Support: 0.7506


AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD


73

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170328-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 36.2 KB

Today Fed Chair Yellen will speak along with a number of FOMC members. USD expected highly volatile.

Markets are underestimating the impact that Trumponomics will have on USD, especially now that the U.S. House of Representatives’ withdrew a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare. On the other hand, last Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index print was pretty good, on the contrary the U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected.

German Unemployment Change better than expected, German Manufacturing slowed down a little bit. German GDP below expectations added to the concerns remain about the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France, Holland, Italy.
Greek bailout uncertainty also added to pressure on the euro.

1.085 area is a very important resistance.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0856
2nd Resistance: 1.0950
1st Support: 1.0782
2nd Support: 1.0679

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

24th of March, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

Eyes on today release: Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170328-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 35.5 KB

Today Fed Chair Yellen will speak along with a number of FOMC members. USD expected highly volatile.

Good UK Retail Sales data, on the other hand the U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected.
Good also the annual rate of inflation in the UK (rose to the highest since September 2013 in February) but Brexit setup will soon deteriorate all this progress in the GBP value.

A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates and some among the majority who kept them at a record low.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

UK Services PMI below expectations. Also UK Manufacturing PMI and GDP below the expectations.

1.2530 very important resistance started the pullback. Now eyes on 1.23 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2705
1st Support: 1.2380
2nd Support: 1.2200

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170328-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 39.1 KB

Today Fed Chair Yellen will speak along with a number of FOMC members. USD expected highly volatile.

The U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected and the U.S. House of Representatives’ withdrew a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare.

A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers has agreed to review whether a global pact to limit supplies should be extended by six months. Oil sector analysts said the lack of an immediate extension could drag on crude prices.

Australia Employment data were below the expectations. China Industrial Production marked a progress higher than Expected. Significantly worse than expected Australian Trade Balance was a sharp reminder of the damage that a strong currency can do to an export dependent economy. Also in New Zealand the trade balance for January came in at a deficit wider than the gap expected along with a slower GDP growth. Last print of Australia GDP was better than expected though.

Price stuck against our 0.7735, as said in the previous commentaries. It reacted fine, then important supports around 0.75 area likely to be tested back again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7585
2nd Support: 0.7506

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD


74

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170331-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 35.2 KB

The dollar was supported after official data showed that the third estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product was at 2.1%, up from the previous reading of a 1.9% expansion.

Eyes on today German Unemployment.

The majority of the Fed’s policymakers foresee at least two more increases this year, someone foresee three rate hikes. Markets are underestimating the impact that Trumponomics will have on USD, especially now that the U.S. House of Representatives’ withdrew a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare.

Reinforcing rate hike expectations, the Conference Board said U.S. consumer confidence index hit 125.6 in March, surpassing expectations for a reading of 114, and much higher than 116.1 in February. The March level marked the highest since December 2000.

Last Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index print was pretty good, on the contrary the U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected.
Last German GDP print was below expectations, adding to the concerns about the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France, Holland, Italy and about Greek bailout.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.085 area is a very important resistance. It worked fine and now we are on 1.067 area support. Very important support.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0679
2nd Support: 1.0619


EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

Eyes on today release: German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

24th of March, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170331-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 35.8 KB

Eyes on today UK GDP.

British Prime Minister Theresa May is formally filing paperwork to leave the European Union. Some unresolved tension with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Good UK Retail Sales data, good also the annual rate of inflation in the UK (rose to the highest since September 2013 in February) but Brexit setup will soon deteriorate all this progress in the GBP value.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.2530 very important resistance started the pullback. But also our 1.2380 made price react very quickly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2705
1st Support: 1.2380
2nd Support: 1.2200

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: GDP

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.


AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170331-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 39.8 KB

The dollar was supported after official data showed that the third estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product was at 2.1%, up from the previous reading of a 1.9% expansion.

China Manufacturing PMI better than expected.

A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers has agreed to review whether a global pact to limit supplies should be extended by six months. Oil sector analysts said the lack of an immediate extension could drag on crude prices.

Price stuck against our 0.7735, as said in the previous commentaries. It reacted fine, but now both our 0.7585 and 0.7506 are important areas for the bulls.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7585
2nd Support: 0.7506

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD


75

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170403-sgtmarkets.jpg700×339 35 KB

German Unemployment Change again better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row) but Inflation data on downbeat.

The dollar was supported after official data showed that the third estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product was at 2.1%, up from the previous reading of a 1.9% expansion.

The majority of the Fed’s policymakers foresee at least two more increases this year, someone foresee three rate hikes. Markets are underestimating the impact that Trumponomics will have on USD, especially now that the U.S. House of Representatives’ withdrew a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare.

Reinforcing rate hike expectations, the Conference Board said U.S. consumer confidence index hit 125.6 in March, surpassing expectations for a reading of 114, and much higher than 116.1 in February. The March level marked the highest since December 2000.

Last Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index print was pretty good, on the contrary the U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected.
Last German GDP print was below expectations, adding to the concerns about the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France, Holland, Italy and about Greek bailout.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.085 area is a very important resistance. It worked fine and now we are on 1.067 area support. Very important support.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0679
2nd Support: 1.0619

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: German Manufacturing PMI.

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

24th of March, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170403-sgtmarkets.jpg700×340 35.4 KB

UK GDP YoY worse than Expected. Eyes on today release: Manufacturing PMI.

British Prime Minister Theresa May is formally filing paperwork to leave the European Union. Some unresolved tension with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Good UK Retail Sales data, good also the annual rate of inflation in the UK (rose to the highest since September 2013 in February) but Brexit setup will soon deteriorate all this progress in the GBP value.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.2530 very important resistance started the pullback. But also our 1.2380 made price react very quickly.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2705
1st Support: 1.2380
2nd Support: 1.2200

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing PMI


USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170403-sgtmarkets.jpg700×340 39.6 KB

Australia Retail Sales worse than Expected while Chinese factory activity grew at fastest pace in nearly 5 years.

The dollar was supported after official data showed that the third estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product was at 2.1%, up from the previous reading of a 1.9% expansion.

A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers has agreed to review whether a global pact to limit supplies should be extended by six months. Oil sector analysts said the lack of an immediate extension could drag on crude prices.

Price stuck against our 0.7735, as said in the previous commentaries. It reacted fine, but now both our 0.7585 and 0.7506 are important areas for the bulls.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7585
2nd Support: 0.7506

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD


76

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170404-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 35.8 KB

German Unemployment Change again better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row) but Inflation data on downbeat.

The dollar was supported after official data showed that the third estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product was at 2.1%, up from the previous reading of a 1.9% expansion.

The majority of the Fed’s policymakers foresee at least two more increases this year, very few foresee three rate hikes. But, Markets are underestimating the impact that Trumponomics will have on USD, especially now that the U.S. House of Representatives withdrew a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare.

Reinforcing rate hike expectations, the Conference Board said U.S. consumer confidence index hit 125.6 in March, surpassing expectations for a reading of 114, and much higher than 116.1 in February. The March level marked the highest since December 2000.

Last Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index print was pretty good, on the contrary the U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected.
Last German GDP print was below expectations, adding to the concerns about the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France, Holland, Italy and about Greek bailout.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.085 area is a very important resistance. It worked fine and now we are on 1.067 area support. 1.067 is a very important support likely to be tested several times. Only a breakout of 1.062 can lead down to 1.056.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0679
2nd Support: 1.0619

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

24th of March, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170404-SGT-Markets.jpg700×338 35.7 KB

UK Manufacturing PMI dropped below previous one, for the second time in a row. UK GDP YoY worse than Expected.

British Prime Minister Theresa May is formally filing paperwork to leave the European Union. Some unresolved tension with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Good UK Retail Sales data, good also the annual rate of inflation in the UK (rose to the highest since September 2013 in February) but Brexit setup will soon deteriorate all this progress in the GBP value.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.2530 is very important resistance and now we expect a consolidation around 1.238 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2705
1st Support: 1.2380
2nd Support: 1.2200

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170404-SGT-Markets.jpg700×341 39.7 KB

Australia’s central bank held steady as expected in its latest interest rate decision: “The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment”.

Investors cautious ahead of a meeting this week between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Florida expected to be contentious on trade.

Australia Retail Sales worse than Expected while Chinese factory activity grew at fastest pace in nearly 5 years.

A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers has agreed to review whether a global pact to limit supplies should be extended by six months. Oil sector analysts said the lack of an immediate extension could drag on crude prices.

Now we expect a test below 0.7585 and, eventually, around 0.7506 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7585
2nd Support: 0.7506

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD


77

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170405-sgtmarkets.jpg700×340 35.7 KB

Today high-density of U.S. data and events: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI + FOMC Meeting Minutes.

German Unemployment Change again better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row) but Inflation data on downbeat.

The dollar was supported after official data showed that the third estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product was at 2.1%, up from the previous reading of a 1.9% expansion.

The majority of the Fed’s policymakers foresee at least two more increases this year, very few foresee three rate hikes. But, Markets are underestimating the impact that Trumponomics will have on USD, especially now that the U.S. House of Representatives withdrew a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare.

Reinforcing rate hike expectations, the Conference Board said U.S. consumer confidence index hit 125.6 in March, surpassing expectations for a reading of 114, and much higher than 116.1 in February. The March level marked the highest since December 2000.

Last Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index print was pretty good, on the contrary the U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected.
Last German GDP print was below expectations, adding to the concerns about the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France, Holland, Italy and about Greek bailout.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.085 area is a very important resistance. It worked fine and now we are on 1.067 area support. 1.067 is a very important support likely to be tested several times. Only a breakout of 1.062 can lead down to 1.056.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0679
2nd Support: 1.0619

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

24th of March, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

Eyes on today: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI + FOMC Meeting Minutes

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170405-sgtmarkets.jpg700×339 36.3 KB

Today high-density of U.S. data and events: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI + FOMC Meeting Minutes.

UK Manufacturing PMI dropped below previous one, for the second time in a row. UK GDP YoY worse than Expected.

British Prime Minister Theresa May is formally filing paperwork to leave the European Union. Some unresolved tension with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Good UK Retail Sales data, good also the annual rate of inflation in the UK (rose to the highest since September 2013 in February) but Brexit setup will soon deteriorate all this progress in the GBP value.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.2530 is very important resistance and now we expect a consolidation around 1.238 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2705
1st Support: 1.2380
2nd Support: 1.2200

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Services PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170405-sgtmarkets.jpg700×341 39.4 KB

Today high-density of U.S. data and events: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI + FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Australia’s central bank held steady as expected in its latest interest rate decision: “The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment”.

Investors cautious ahead of a meeting this week between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Florida expected to be contentious on trade.

Australia Retail Sales worse than Expected while Chinese factory activity grew at fastest pace in nearly 5 years.

A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers has agreed to review whether a global pact to limit supplies should be extended by six months. Oil sector analysts said the lack of an immediate extension could drag on crude prices.

Now we expect a test below 0.7585 and, eventually, around 0.7506 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7585
2nd Support: 0.7506

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker and CFD


78

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170406-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 36.1 KB

U.S. non-farm private employment rose much than expected for the second straight month in March. ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected. But geopolitical risks are weighing on the dollar. The market is only starting to factor in recent developments regarding North Korea, and it now wants to figure out the geopolitical implications of the U.S.-China summit.

German Unemployment Change again better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row) but Inflation data on downbeat.

The dollar was supported after official data showed that the third estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product was at 2.1%, up from the previous reading of a 1.9% expansion.

The majority of the Fed’s policymakers foresee at least two more increases this year, very few foresee three rate hikes. But, Markets are underestimating the impact that Trumponomics will have on USD, especially now that the U.S. House of Representatives withdrew a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare.

Reinforcing rate hike expectations, the Conference Board said U.S. consumer confidence index hit 125.6 in March, surpassing expectations for a reading of 114, and much higher than 116.1 in February. The March level marked the highest since December 2000.

Last Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index print was pretty good, on the contrary the U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected.
Last German GDP print was below expectations, adding to the concerns about the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France, Holland, Italy and about Greek bailout.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.085 area is a very important resistance. It worked fine and now we are on 1.067 area support. 1.067 is a very important support likely to be tested several times. Only a breakout of 1.062 can lead down to 1.056.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.0782
2nd Resistance: 1.0856
1st Support: 1.0679
2nd Support: 1.0619

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

24th of March, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170406-SGT-Markets.jpg700×341 35.5 KB

UK Services PMI seen back to 55, far better than the 53.3 of previous month. UK Manufacturing PMI dropped below previous one, for the second time in a row. UK GDP YoY worse than Expected. U.S. Non-farm Private Employment rose much than expected for the second straight month in March.

British Prime Minister Theresa May is formally filing paperwork to leave the European Union. Some unresolved tension with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Good UK Retail Sales data, good also the annual rate of inflation in the UK (rose to the highest since September 2013 in February) but Brexit setup will soon deteriorate all this progress in the GBP value.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.2530 is very important resistance and now we expect a consolidation around 1.238 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2705
1st Support: 1.2380
2nd Support: 1.2200


GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170406-SGT-Markets.jpg700×338 39.3 KB

U.S. non-farm private employment rose much than expected for the second straight month in March. ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected.

Australia’s central bank held steady as expected in its latest interest rate decision: “The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment”.

Investors cautious ahead of a meeting this week between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Florida expected to be contentious on trade.

Australia Retail Sales worse than Expected while Chinese factory activity grew at fastest pace in nearly 5 years.

A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers has agreed to review whether a global pact to limit supplies should be extended by six months. Oil sector analysts said the lack of an immediate extension could drag on crude prices.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, now we expect a test below 0.7585 and, eventually, around 0.7506 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7585
2nd Support: 0.7506

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech


USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD


79

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170407-SGT-Markets.jpg700×341 36 KB

Eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate.

U.S. non-farm private employment rose much than expected for the second straight month in March. ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected. But geopolitical risks are weighing on the dollar. The market is only starting to factor in recent developments regarding North Korea, and it now wants to figure out the geopolitical implications of the U.S.-China summit.

German Unemployment Change again better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row) but Inflation data on downbeat.

The dollar was supported after official data showed that the third estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product was at 2.1%, up from the previous reading of a 1.9% expansion.

The majority of the Fed’s policymakers foresee at least two more increases this year, very few foresee three rate hikes. But, Markets are underestimating the impact that Trumponomics will have on USD, especially now that the U.S. House of Representatives withdrew a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare.

Reinforcing rate hike expectations, the Conference Board said U.S. consumer confidence index hit 125.6 in March, surpassing expectations for a reading of 114, and much higher than 116.1 in February. The March level marked the highest since December 2000.

Last Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index print was pretty good, on the contrary the U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected.
Last German GDP print was below expectations, adding to the concerns about the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France, Holland, Italy and about Greek bailout.

1.072 area is a very important resistance, we exclude a breakout of that barrier in the short-term. 1.067 support level breached: a breakout of 1.062 can lead down to 1.056.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0720
1st Support: 1.0619
2nd Support: 1.0560

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

24th of March, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170407-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 35.3 KB

Manufacturing Production data to be released and BoE Governor Carney will give a Speech. Also eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate.

UK Services PMI seen back to 55, far better than the 53.3 of previous month. UK Manufacturing PMI dropped below previous one, for the second time in a row. UK GDP YoY worse than Expected. U.S. Non-farm Private Employment rose much than expected for the second straight month in March.

British Prime Minister Theresa May is formally filing paperwork to leave the European Union. Some unresolved tension with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Good UK Retail Sales data, good also the annual rate of inflation in the UK (rose to the highest since September 2013 in February) but Brexit setup will soon deteriorate all this progress in the GBP value.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.2530 is very important resistance and now we expect a consolidation around 1.238 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2705
1st Support: 1.2380
2nd Support: 1.2200

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing Production + BoE Gov Carney Speech

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170407-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 39.8 KB

Eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate.

U.S. non-farm private employment rose much than expected for the second straight month in March. ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected.

Australia’s central bank held steady as expected in its latest interest rate decision: “The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment”.

Investors cautious ahead of a meeting this week between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Florida expected to be contentious on trade.

Australia Retail Sales worse than Expected while Chinese factory activity grew at fastest pace in nearly 5 years.

A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers has agreed to review whether a global pact to limit supplies should be extended by six months. Oil sector analysts said the lack of an immediate extension could drag on crude prices.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, now we expect a test below 0.7585 and, eventually, around 0.7506 area. That is happening. Read below for detecting the first support area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7585
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7506
2nd Support: 0.7425


AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker &CFD


80

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170410-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 34.5 KB

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls poor but Unemployment Rate above expectations.

The market is only starting to factor in recent developments regarding North Korea, and it now wants to figure out the geopolitical implications of the U.S.-China summit.

German Unemployment Change again better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row) but Inflation data on downbeat.

The dollar was supported after official data showed that the third estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product was at 2.1%, up from the previous reading of a 1.9% expansion.

The majority of the Fed’s policymakers foresee at least two more increases this year, very few foresee three rate hikes. But, Markets are underestimating the impact that Trumponomics will have on USD, especially now that the U.S. House of Representatives withdrew a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare.

Reinforcing rate hike expectations, the Conference Board said U.S. consumer confidence index hit 125.6 in March, surpassing expectations for a reading of 114, and much higher than 116.1 in February. The March level marked the highest since December 2000.

Last Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index print was pretty good, on the contrary the U.S. Purchasing Managers Indexes were, again, worse than expected.
Last German GDP print was below expectations, adding to the concerns about the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France, Holland, Italy and about Greek bailout.

1.072 area is a very important resistance, we exclude a breakout of that barrier in the short-term. 1.067 support level breached: as we wrote in the previous commentaries, a breakout of 1.062 can lead down to 1.056. And this is happening right now.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0619
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0560
2nd Support: 1.0506

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

24th of March, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170410-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 35.7 KB

Manufacturing Production data and Trade Balance below expectations.
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls poor but Unemployment Rate above expectations.

UK Services PMI seen back to 55, far better than the 53.3 of previous month. UK Manufacturing PMI dropped below previous one, for the second time in a row. UK GDP YoY worse than Expected. U.S. Non-farm Private Employment rose much than expected for the second straight month in March.

British Prime Minister Theresa May is formally filing paperwork to leave the European Union. Some unresolved tension with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Good UK Retail Sales data, good also the annual rate of inflation in the UK (rose to the highest since September 2013 in February) but Brexit setup will soon deteriorate all this progress in the GBP value.

Job market’s data better than expected. UK Manufacturing Production printed another negative number, while Trade Balance is better than expected.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.2530 is very important resistance and now we expect a consolidation around 1.238 area. A breakout of 1.238 can lead down to 1.22 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2705
1st Support: 1.2380
2nd Support: 1.2200

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

7th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-20170410-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 38.5 KB

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls poor but Unemployment Rate above expectations.

Australia’s central bank held steady as expected in its latest interest rate decision: “The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment”.

Investors cautious ahead of a meeting this week between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Florida expected to be contentious on trade.

Australia Retail Sales worse than Expected while Chinese factory activity grew at fastest pace in nearly 5 years.

A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers has agreed to review whether a global pact to limit supplies should be extended by six months. Oil sector analysts said the lack of an immediate extension could drag on crude prices.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we expected a test around 0.7506 area. That is happening. Next important support area between 0.746 and 0.742.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7570
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7460
2nd Support: 0.7425

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD


81

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Daily-Technical-Analysis-20170411-sgtmarkets.jpg700×339 35.1 KB

The outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France is becoming a central topic. The market is also starting to factor in recent developments regarding North Korea and Syria, and it now wants to figure out the geopolitical implications of the U.S.-China summit.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise U.S. interest rates gradually are aimed at sustaining full employment and near-2-percent inflation without letting the economy overheat.

German Unemployment Change again better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row) but Inflation data on downbeat.

The dollar was supported after official data showed that the third estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product was at 2.1%, up from the previous reading of a 1.9% expansion.

1.072 area is a very important resistance, we exclude a breakout of that barrier in the short-term. 1.067 support level breached: as we wrote in the previous commentaries, a breakout of 1.062 can lead down to 1.056. And this is happening right now.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0619
2nd Resistance: 1.0679
1st Support: 1.0560
2nd Support: 1.0506

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

Eyes on today release: German ZEW Economic Sentiment

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

24th of March, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected


GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Daily-Technical-Analysis-20170411-sgtmarkets.jpg700×340 35.6 KB

Eyes on today UK Inflation Data, after last Manufacturing Production data and Trade Balance were below expectations.
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls poor but U.S. Unemployment Rate above expectations.

UK Services PMI seen back to 55, far better than the 53.3 of previous month. UK Manufacturing PMI dropped below previous one, for the second time in a row. UK GDP YoY worse than Expected.
British Prime Minister Theresa May is formally filing paperwork to leave the European Union. Some unresolved tension with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Good UK Retail Sales data, good also the recent job market data but Brexit setup will soon deteriorate all this progress in the GBP value.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.2530 is very important resistance and now we expect a consolidation around 1.238 area. A breakout of 1.238 can lead down to 1.22 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2705
1st Support: 1.2380
2nd Support: 1.2200

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

7th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: UK CPI

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Daily-Technical-Analysis-20170411-sgtmarkets.jpg700×338 39.9 KB

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls poor but Unemployment Rate above expectations.

In Australia from a National Australia Bank survey, the business survey rose to plus-14 from plus-9.
Investors cautious ahead of a meeting this week between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Florida expected to be contentious on trade.

Australia’s central bank held steady as expected in its latest interest rate decision: “The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment”.

Australia Retail Sales worse than Expected while Chinese factory activity grew at fastest pace in nearly 5 years.

A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers has agreed to review whether a global pact to limit supplies should be extended by six months. Oil sector analysts said the lack of an immediate extension could drag on crude prices.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we expected a test around 0.7506 area. That is happening. Next important support area between 0.746 and 0.742.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7570
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7460
2nd Support: 0.7425

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD


82

EUR/USD

EURUSD-Forex-Analysis-20170413-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 34.9 KB

The dollar slumped broadly after U.S. President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that the dollar “is getting too strong” and that he would prefer the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment very good but the outside chance of a victory by far-right parties in France is becoming a central topic. The market is also starting to factor in recent developments regarding North Korea and Syria.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise U.S. interest rates gradually are aimed at sustaining full employment and near-2-percent inflation without letting the economy overheat.

German Unemployment Change again better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row) but Inflation data on downbeat.

The dollar was supported after official data showed that the third estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product was at 2.1%, up from the previous reading of a 1.9% expansion.

1.072 area is a very important resistance, we exclude a breakout of that barrier in the short-term. 1.067 support level breached: as we wrote in the previous commentaries, a breakout of 1.062 can lead down to 1.056 and 1.056 reacted. Now we are consolidating back around 1.065 in sideways market movements and in 1.072 area there is a very important resistance.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.0679
2nd Resistance: 1.0724
1st Support: 1.0560
2nd Support: 1.0506

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of January, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

31st of January, Eurozone’s CPI and GDP preliminary release
Better than Expected

1st of February, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

9th of February, German Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

10th of February, French Industrial Production + French Non-Farm Payrolls
French Industrial Production Worse than Expected, French Non-Farm Payrolls Better than Expected

14th of February: German GDP (Preliminary release) + German ZEW Economic Sentiment + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release)
German GDP Worse than Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected, Eurozone GDP Worse than Expected

15th of February, Eurozone Trade Balance
Better than Expected

21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of February, German GDP
Worse than Expected

1st of March, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment Change
German Manufacturing Worse than Expected, German Unemployment Change Better than Expected

2nd of March, Eurozone Inflation data
In line with Expectations

3rd of March, German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

7th of March, Germany Factory Orders
Worse than Expected

8th of March, German Industrial Production
Better than Expected

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

2nd of December: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

27th of January, GDP + Durable Good Orders
GDP Significantly Worse than Expected, Durable Good Orders as Expected

1st of February, ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change + U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing
Better than Expected (ISM Manufacturing at its highest level since November 2014)

3rd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than Expected, Unemployment Rate Worse than Expected

14th of February, Producer Price Index (PPI)
Better than Expected

15th of February, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) + Retail Sales
Better than Expected

16th of February, Building Permits + Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

21st of February, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI
Worse than Expected

27th of February, Core Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

16th of March, Building Permits + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Building Permits Worse than Expected, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Better than Expected

24th of March, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected


GBP/USD

GBPUSD-Forex-Analysis-20170413-SGT-Markets.jpg700×340 35.8 KB

The dollar slumped broadly after U.S. President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that the dollar “is getting too strong” and that he would prefer the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low.

UK Job Market with stable Unemployment Rate but toughly increasing Job Claimants.
UK Inflation Data on the upbeat while last Manufacturing Production data and Trade Balance were below expectations.

UK Services PMI seen back to 55, far better than the 53.3 of previous month, while UK Manufacturing PMI dropped below previous one, for the second time in a row. UK GDP YoY was worse than Expected.
British Prime Minister Theresa May is formally filing paperwork to leave the European Union. Some unresolved tension with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, 1.2530 is very important resistance and the consolidation around 1.238 area already exhausted. Now market is ranging between 1.238 and 1.253 levels waiting for the news and events scheduled next days.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2530
2nd Resistance: 1.2705
1st Support: 1.2380
2nd Support: 1.2200

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

20th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected

1st of February, UK Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

2nd of February, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected

3rd of February, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of February, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected

14th of February, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Worse than Expected

15th of February, Job Market
Better than Expected

17th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of March, Services PMI
Worse than Expected

10th of March, Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance
UK Manufacturing Production Worse than Expected, Trade Balance Better than Expected

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

7th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of April, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

12th of April, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUDUSD-Forex-Analysis-20170413-SGT-Markets.jpg700×339 40.1 KB

Australia Employment Change growing higher than expected. The dollar slumped broadly after U.S. President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that the dollar “is getting too strong” and that he would prefer the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low.

Weeks ago Australia’s central bank held steady as expected in its latest interest rate decision: “The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment”.

Last reading of China Inflation data is lower than Expected. Australia Retail Sales worse than Expected while Chinese factory activity grew at fastest pace in nearly 5 years.

A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers has agreed to review whether a global pact to limit supplies should be extended by six months. Oil sector analysts said the lack of an immediate extension could drag on crude prices.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we expected a test around 0.7506 area. That happened and now we are back to the important resistance around 0.757 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7570
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7460
2nd Support: 0.7425

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Lucas Carter
SGT Markets Forex Broker & CFD