FX Analysis by SGT Markets

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Today Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes.

German Manufacturing again better than expected, consistently confirming a long positive trend.

Trump’s budget proposal, set to be unveiled these days, will include cuts to Medicaid and propose changes to other assistance programs for low-income citizens. Uproar over Trump’s recent firing of FBI Director James Comey, who was overseeing an investigation into possible links between the president’s team and Russia, has pressured the dollar.

Eurozone private sector growth held steady at a six year high in May, indicating that the economic recovery in the bloc is deepening.
U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Core CPI (Inflation data) were worse than expected, while U.S. Job market is keeping the good pace.

In its spring economic outlook, the ECB raised euro area GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.6%.
The forecast for 2018 growth was 1.8%, unchanged from its winter economic outlook.
Consumer inflation is expected to rise to 1.6% this year from 0.2% in 2016.

Retail Sales and German Unemployment Change again better than Expected (the latter confirms a positive 7-month strike). Eurozone GDP preliminary release stable at 1.7%, as expected.
On the other hand, U.S. GDP (Preliminary) was lower than the expected.

1.119 strong resistance was first broken up for hitting 1.129, then the setup became overbought and now we can expect price to fall down to 1.11, first, and 1.10 (eventually) so to test the strong supports in those areas.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1194
2nd Resistance: 1.1291
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.0950

GBP/USD

Today Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes.

UK Inflation (CPI) higher than expected recently gave recently some vitality to GBP.

The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy at the outcome of its last meeting. Left interest rates on hold at current record lows and warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount.

UK Retail Sales, UK Services PMI and Construction PMI better than expected, and also last UK Manufacturing PMI was pretty higher than expected but last UK GDP (Preliminary release) was worse than Expected and this was probably ignored too quickly.
And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.
Sterling jumped as Theresa May called for early general elections on June 8. She said Britain needed a strong and stable leadership going into Brexit talks and beyond.

It has been longer than a month with price ranging between 1.283 and 1.298 levels. Now it is getting out of the Area of Ranging whose top border was around 1.284 area. Possibilities to get down to 1.28 area are high in the case of expected bad news from the UK (or expected good news from the U.S.). In the opposite case, a strong breakout of 1.2978 will lead up to 1.3185 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

AUD/USD

Today Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Australia Construction Work Done worse than expected. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative, citing expectations that China’s financial strength will erode somewhat over the coming years. On the other hand, U.S. Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales worse than expected.

Australia Employment Change better than expected (it is the 5th time over the last 6 months) but Australia Retail Sales worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Core CPI (Inflation data) worse than expected. Also U.S. house market is showing softness, but U.S. Job market keeps consistently the good pace.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected signalling that further interest rate cuts were off the table as wage gains are weaker than hoped, though house prices in some markets remain a worry. Australia New Home Sales and Trade Balance below expectations.

OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers look likely to extend their agreement to limit supplies beyond its June expiry to help clear a glut.

WE expect to see a very important Support (0.7408) again under pressure. If it will fail to support price, then we can see AUD/USD falling down to 0.73 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7472
2nd Resistance: 0.7570
1st Support: 0.7408
2nd Support: 0.7310

more information - https://sgtmarkets.com/en/market-news/forex-analysis-eurusd-gbpusd-audusd-may-24-2017/

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

German Manufacturing again better than expected, consistently confirming a long positive trend.

Trump’s budget proposal, set to be unveiled these days, will include cuts to Medicaid and propose changes to other assistance programs for low-income citizens. Uproar over Trump’s recent firing of FBI Director James Comey, who was overseeing an investigation into possible links between the president’s team and Russia, has pressured the dollar.

Eurozone private sector growth held steady at a six year high in May, indicating that the economic recovery in the bloc is deepening.
U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Core CPI (Inflation data) were worse than expected, while U.S. Job market is keeping the good pace.

In its spring economic outlook, the ECB raised euro area GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.6%.
The forecast for 2018 growth was 1.8%, unchanged from its winter economic outlook.
Consumer inflation is expected to rise to 1.6% this year from 0.2% in 2016.

Retail Sales and German Unemployment Change again better than Expected (the latter confirms a positive 7-month strike). Eurozone GDP preliminary release stable at 1.7%, as expected.
On the other hand, U.S. GDP (Preliminary) was lower than the expected.

1.119 strong resistance was first broken up for hitting 1.129, then the setup became overbought and now we can expect price to fall down to 1.11, first, and 1.10 (eventually) so to test the strong supports in those areas.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1291
2nd Resistance: 1.1345
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.0950

GBP/USD

Eyes on today UK GDP, Preliminary release.

U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

UK Inflation (CPI) higher than expected recently gave recently some vitality to GBP.

The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy at the outcome of its last meeting. Left interest rates on hold at current record lows and warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount.

UK Retail Sales, UK Services PMI and Construction PMI better than expected, and also last UK Manufacturing PMI was pretty higher than expected but last UK GDP (Preliminary release) was worse than Expected and this was probably ignored too quickly.
And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.
Sterling jumped as Theresa May called for early general elections on June 8. She said Britain needed a strong and stable leadership going into Brexit talks and beyond.

It has been longer than a month with price ranging between 1.283 and 1.298 levels. Now it is getting out of the Area of Ranging whose top border was around 1.284 area. Possibilities to get down to 1.28 area are high in the case of expected bad news from the UK (or expected good news from the U.S.). In the opposite case, a strong breakout of 1.2978 will lead up to 1.3185 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

AUD/USD

U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

Australia Construction Work Done worse than expected. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative, citing expectations that China’s financial strength will erode somewhat over the coming years. On the other hand, U.S. Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales worse than expected.

Australia Employment Change better than expected (it is the 5th time over the last 6 months) but Australia Retail Sales worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Core CPI (Inflation data) worse than expected. Also U.S. house market is showing softness, but U.S. Job market keeps consistently the good pace.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected signalling that further interest rate cuts were off the table as wage gains are weaker than hoped, though house prices in some markets remain a worry. Australia New Home Sales and Trade Balance below expectations.

OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers look likely to extend their agreement to limit supplies beyond its June expiry to help clear a glut.

WE expect to see a very important Support (0.7408) again under pressure. If it will fail to support price, then we can see AUD/USD falling down to 0.73 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7472
2nd Resistance: 0.7570
1st Support: 0.7408
2nd Support: 0.7310

more information: https://sgtmarkets.com/en/market-news/forex-analysis-20170525/

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Eyes on today U.S. Core Durable Good Orders and U.S. GDP (Preliminary release).

U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

German Manufacturing again better than expected, consistently confirming a long positive trend.

Trump’s budget proposal, set to be unveiled these days, will include cuts to Medicaid and propose changes to other assistance programs for low-income citizens. Uproar over Trump’s recent firing of FBI Director James Comey, who was overseeing an investigation into possible links between the president’s team and Russia, has pressured the dollar.

Eurozone private sector growth held steady at a six year high in May, indicating that the economic recovery in the bloc is deepening.
U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Core CPI (Inflation data) were worse than expected, while U.S. Job market is keeping the good pace.

In its spring economic outlook, the ECB raised euro area GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.6%.
The forecast for 2018 growth was 1.8%, unchanged from its winter economic outlook.
Consumer inflation is expected to rise to 1.6% this year from 0.2% in 2016.

1.119 strong resistance was first broken up for hitting 1.129, then the setup became overbought and now we can expect price to fall down to 1.11, first, and 1.10 (eventually) so to test the strong supports in those areas.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1291
2nd Resistance: 1.1345
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.0950

GBP/USD

UK GDP, Preliminary release, worse than expected, for the second time in a row.

U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

UK Inflation (CPI) higher than expected recently gave recently some vitality to GBP.

The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy at the outcome of its last meeting. Left interest rates on hold at current record lows and warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount.

UK Retail Sales, UK Services PMI and Construction PMI better than expected, and also last UK Manufacturing PMI was pretty higher than expected but last UK GDP (Preliminary release) was worse than Expected and this was probably ignored too quickly.
And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.
Sterling jumped as Theresa May called for early general elections on June 8. She said Britain needed a strong and stable leadership going into Brexit talks and beyond.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, possibilities to get down to 1.28 area are high in the case of expected bad news from the UK and that is what is happening after test of resistances close to 1.30 area: first stop in area 1.283.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

AUD/USD

U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative, citing expectations that China’s financial strength will erode somewhat over the coming years.

Oil prices moving sharply lower after OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018.

Australia Employment Change better than expected (it is the 5th time over the last 6 months) but Australia Retail Sales worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Core CPI (Inflation data) worse than expected. Also U.S. house market is showing softness, but U.S. Job market keeps consistently the good pace.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected signalling that further interest rate cuts were off the table as wage gains are weaker than hoped, though house prices in some markets remain a worry. Australia New Home Sales and Trade Balance below expectations.

As we wrote, Resistance in 0.742 area worked and if the very important Support in area 0.7408 failed then we would see AUD/USD falling down to 0.73 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7472
2nd Resistance: 0.7570
1st Support: 0.7408
2nd Support: 0.7310

more information - https://sgtmarkets.com/en/market-news/forex-analysis-20170526/

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

U.S. Core Durable Good Orders very bad but U.S. GDP higher than expected.

German Manufacturing was, again, better than expected, consistently confirming a long positive trend.

Eurozone private sector growth held steady at a six year high in May, indicating that the economic recovery in the bloc is deepening.
U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Core CPI (Inflation data) were worse than expected, while U.S. Job market is keeping the good pace.

In its spring economic outlook, the ECB raised euro area GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.6%.
The forecast for 2018 growth was 1.8%, unchanged from its winter economic outlook.
Consumer inflation is expected to rise to 1.6% this year from 0.2% in 2016.

1.119 strong resistance was first broken up for hitting 1.129, then the setup became overbought and now we can expect price to fall down to 1.11, first, and 1.10 (eventually) so to test the strong supports in those areas.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1194
2nd Resistance: 1.1291
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.0950

GBP/USD

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, possibilities to get down to 1.28 area are high in the case of expected bad news from the UK and that is what is happening after test of resistances close to 1.30 area: first stop in area 1.283.

UK GDP, Preliminary release, worse than expected, for the second time in a row. On the other hand, U.S. GDP was higher than expected.

Last UK Inflation (CPI) print was higher than expected and gave recently some vitality to GBP but the Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy at the outcome of its last meeting. Left interest rates on hold at current record lows and warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.
Theresa May called for early general elections on June 8. She said Britain needed a strong and stable leadership going into Brexit, but election gap between Labor and Conservative looks tightening and this leaves some doubts about future Brexit setups.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

AUD/USD

Eyes on today Building Approvals and Private House Approvals.

U.S. GDP higher than expected but U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative, citing expectations that China’s financial strength will erode somewhat over the coming years.

Oil prices moving sharply lower after OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018.

Australia Employment Change better than expected (it is the 5th time over the last 6 months) but Australia Retail Sales worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Core CPI (Inflation data) worse than expected. Also U.S. house market is showing softness, but U.S. Job market keeps consistently the good pace.

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected signalling that further interest rate cuts were off the table as wage gains are weaker than hoped, though house prices in some markets remain a worry.

As we wrote, Resistance in 0.742 area worked, and if the very important Support in area 0.7408 failed then we would see AUD/USD falling down to 0.73 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7472
2nd Resistance: 0.7570
1st Support: 0.7408
2nd Support: 0.7310

more information: https://sgtmarkets.com/en/market-news/forex-analysis-20170529/

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Eyes on today German CPI (Preliminary release).

1.119 strong resistance was first broken up for hitting 1.129, then the setup became overbought and, as we wrote in the previous commentaries, we expected price to fall down to 1.11, first, and 1.10 (eventually) so to test the strong supports in those areas.

U.S. Core Durable Good Orders very bad but U.S. GDP higher than expected.

German Manufacturing was, again, better than expected, consistently confirming a long positive trend.

Concerns about a Greek bailout, early Italian elections and comments by the European Central Bank chief about the need for continued stimulus all kept the euro under pressure.
In its spring economic outlook, the ECB raised euro area GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.6%.
The forecast for 2018 growth was 1.8%, unchanged from its winter economic outlook.
Consumer inflation is expected to rise to 1.6% this year from 0.2% in 2016.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1194
2nd Resistance: 1.1291
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.0950

GBP/USD

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, possibilities to get down to 1.28 area are high in the case of expected bad news from the UK and that is what is happening after test of resistances close to 1.30 area. Now a first relevant Support triggered in area 1.283.

UK GDP, Preliminary release, worse than expected, for the second time in a row. On the other hand, U.S. GDP was higher than expected.

Last UK Inflation (CPI) print was higher than expected and gave recently some vitality to GBP but the Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy at the outcome of its last meeting. Left interest rates on hold at current record lows and warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.
Theresa May called for early general elections on June 8. She said Britain needed a strong and stable leadership going into Brexit, but election gap between Labor and Conservative looks tightening and this leaves some doubts about future Brexit setups.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

AUD/USD

Building Approvals and Private House Approvals better than expected

U.S. GDP higher than expected but U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative, citing expectations that China’s financial strength will erode somewhat over the coming years.

Oil prices moving sharply lower after OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018.

Australia Employment Change better than expected (it is the 5th time over the last 6 months) but Australia Retail Sales worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Core CPI (Inflation data) worse than expected. Also U.S. house market is showing softness, but U.S. Job market keeps consistently the good pace.

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected signalling that further interest rate cuts were off the table as wage gains are weaker than hoped, though house prices in some markets remain a worry.

As we wrote, Resistance in 0.742 area worked, and if the very important Support in area 0.7408 failed then we would see AUD/USD falling down to 0.73 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7472
2nd Resistance: 0.7570
1st Support: 0.7408
2nd Support: 0.7310

more information: https://sgtmarkets.com/en/market-news/forex-analysis-eurusd-gbpusd-audusd-may-30-2017/

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

German CPI (Preliminary release) worse than expected. Eyes on today German Unemployment Change and Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release).

1.119 strong resistance was first broken up for hitting 1.129, then the setup became overbought and, as we wrote in the previous commentaries, we expected price to fall down to 1.11, first, and 1.10 (eventually) so to test the strong supports in those areas.

U.S. Core Durable Good Orders very bad but U.S. GDP higher than expected.

German Manufacturing was, again, better than expected, consistently confirming a long positive trend.

Concerns about a Greek bailout, early Italian elections and comments by the European Central Bank chief about the need for continued stimulus all kept the euro under pressure.
In its spring economic outlook, the ECB raised euro area GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.6%.
The forecast for 2018 growth was 1.8%, unchanged from its winter economic outlook.
Consumer inflation is expected to rise to 1.6% this year from 0.2% in 2016.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1194
2nd Resistance: 1.1291
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.1022

GBP/USD

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, possibilities to get down to 1.28 area are high in the case of expected bad news from the UK and that is what is happening after test of resistances close to 1.30 area. Now a first relevant Support triggered in area 1.283.

UK GDP, Preliminary release, worse than expected, for the second time in a row. On the other hand, U.S. GDP was higher than expected.

Last UK Inflation (CPI) print was higher than expected and gave recently some vitality to GBP but the Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy at the outcome of its last meeting. Left interest rates on hold at current record lows and warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.
Theresa May called for early general elections on June 8. She said Britain needed a strong and stable leadership going into Brexit, but election gap between Labor and Conservative looks tightening and this leaves some doubts about future Brexit setups.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

AUD/USD

Eyes on today Australia Retail Sales.

U.S. GDP higher than expected but U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative, citing expectations that China’s financial strength will erode somewhat over the coming years.

Oil prices moving sharply lower after OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018.

Australia Employment Change better than expected (it is the 5th time over the last 6 months) but Australia Retail Sales worse than expected.

Last U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Core CPI (Inflation data) worse than expected. Also U.S. house market is showing softness, but U.S. Job market keeps consistently the good pace.

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected signalling that further interest rate cuts were off the table as wage gains are weaker than hoped, though house prices in some markets remain a worry.

As we wrote, Resistance in 0.7472 area worked, and if the very important Support in area 0.7408 failed then we would see AUD/USD falling down to 0.73 area. We are currently ranging between those two levels.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7472
2nd Resistance: 0.7570
1st Support: 0.7408
2nd Support: 0.7310

more information: https://sgtmarkets.com/en/market-news/forex-analysis-20170531/

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls missed forecasts but U.S. Unemployment Rate better than Expected. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI again better than expected confirming a strong long-lasting trend.

German Unemployment Change better than expected while Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) slowed down along with German CPI.

Most analysts still believe the disappointing data will not stop the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates at its meeting later this month. 1.129 strong resistance again under test, and we expect price to fall down to 1.12, first, and 1.11 (eventually) so to test the strong supports in those areas.

Concerns about a Greek bailout, early Italian elections and comments by the European Central Bank chief about the need for continued stimulus all kept the euro under pressure.
In its spring economic outlook, the ECB raised euro area GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.6%.
The forecast for 2018 growth was 1.8%, unchanged from its winter economic outlook.
Consumer inflation is expected to rise to 1.6% this year from 0.2% in 2016.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1291
2nd Resistance: 1.1300
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.1022

GBP/USD

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls missed forecasts but U.S. Unemployment Rate better than Expected. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI again better than expected confirming a strong long-lasting trend.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, possibilities to get down to 1.28 area are high in the case of expected bad news from the UK and that is what is happening after test of resistances close to 1.30 area. A first relevant Support already triggered in area 1.283.

Theresa May called for early general elections on June 8. She said Britain needed a strong and stable leadership going into Brexit, but election gap between Labor and Conservative looks tightening and this leaves some doubts about future Brexit setups. May is expected to resume campaigning on Monday for a vote which polls show is much tighter than previously predicted. A close election could throw Britain into political deadlock just days before formal Brexit talks with the European Union are due to begin on June 19.

UK GDP, Preliminary release, worse than expected, for the second time in a row but last Manufacturing PMI and Construction PMI were better than Expected.

Last UK Inflation (CPI) print was higher than expected and gave recently some vitality to GBP but the Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy at the outcome of its last meeting. Left interest rates on hold at current record lows and warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

AUD/USD

Eyes on today Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement.

Oil jumped after Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain severed their ties with Qatar on Monday, accusing the wealthy Gulf Arab state of supporting terrorism.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls missed forecasts but U.S. Unemployment Rate better than Expected. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI again better than expected confirming a strong long-lasting trend.

Australia Retail Sales better than expected. Australia Employment Change also was better than expected (it is the 5th time over the last 6 months).

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected signalling that further interest rate cuts were off the table as wage gains are weaker than hoped, though house prices in some markets remain a worry.

As we wrote, Resistance in 0.7472 area worked, and if the very important Support in area 0.7408 failed then we would see AUD/USD falling down to 0.73 area. We are currently ranging between those two levels, being on an important Support at this moment.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7472
2nd Resistance: 0.7570
1st Support: 0.7400
2nd Support: 0.7310

more information: https://sgtmarkets.com/en/market-news/mondays-forex-analysis-eurusd-gbpusd-audusd-june-5-2017/

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls missed forecasts but U.S. Unemployment Rate better than Expected. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI again better than expected confirming a strong long-lasting trend while Non-Manufacturing slowed down a bit.

German Unemployment Change better than expected while Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) slowed down along with German CPI.

Most analysts still believe the disappointing data will not stop the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates at its meeting later this month. 1.129 strong resistance again under test, and we expect price to fall down to 1.12, first, and 1.11 (eventually) so to test the strong supports in those areas.

Concerns about a Greek bailout, early Italian elections and comments by the European Central Bank chief about the need for continued stimulus all kept the euro under pressure.
In its spring economic outlook, the ECB raised euro area GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.6%.
The forecast for 2018 growth was 1.8%, unchanged from its winter economic outlook.
Consumer inflation is expected to rise to 1.6% this year from 0.2% in 2016.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1291
2nd Resistance: 1.1390
1st Support: 1.1194
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

GBP/USD

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls missed forecasts but U.S. Unemployment Rate better than Expected. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI again better than expected confirming a strong long-lasting trend while Non-Manufacturing slowed down a bit.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, possibilities to get down to 1.28 area are high in the case of expected bad news from the UK but then a first relevant Support already triggered in area 1.283.

Theresa May called for early general elections on June 8. She said Britain needed a strong and stable leadership going into Brexit, but election gap between Labor and Conservative looks tightening and this leaves some doubts about future Brexit setups. May is expected to resume campaigning for a vote which polls show is much tighter than previously predicted. A close election could throw Britain into political deadlock just days before formal Brexit talks with the European Union are due to begin on June 19.

UK GDP, Preliminary release, worse than expected, for the second time in a row but last Manufacturing PMI and Construction PMI were better than Expected.

Last UK Inflation (CPI) print was higher than expected and gave recently some vitality to GBP but the Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy at the outcome of its last meeting. Left interest rates on hold at current record lows and warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

7th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of April, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

12th of April, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

21st of April, UK Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

2nd of May, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of May, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

4th of May, Services PMI
Better than Expected

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

Eyes on today release: UK Services PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

AUD/USD

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

Oil fell back following a brief recovery after Saudi Arabia and several other Arab states severed ties with Qatar, accusing it of supporting extremism and undermining regional stability.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls missed forecasts but U.S. Unemployment Rate better than Expected. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI again better than expected confirming a strong long-lasting trend.

Australia Retail Sales better than expected. Australia Employment Change also was better than expected (it is the 5th time over the last 6 months).

As we wrote, Resistance in 0.7472 area again under test with next possible overextension up to 0.757 area, mainly linked to Oil prices’ future alignments.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7472
2nd Resistance: 0.7570
1st Support: 0.7400
2nd Support: 0.7310

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

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EUR/USD

Eyes on today Eurozone GDP.

Comey, who will testify on Thursday, was investigating whether Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and Russia colluded to sway the 2016 U.S. election when he was fired by Trump in May. Investors are worried his testimony could dampen already flagging momentum for Trump’s agenda of rolling back regulations and overhauling the tax code. U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions looks ready to resign.

German Unemployment Change better than expected while Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) slowed down along with German CPI.

Most analysts still believe the disappointing data will not stop the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates at its meeting later this month. 1.129 strong resistance again under test, and we expect price to fall down to 1.12, first, and 1.11 (eventually) so to test the strong supports in those areas.

Market participants will pay attention to President Mario Draghi’s statements for his view on the euro zone economy. Draghi said last week that while euro zone growth may be improving, inflation remains subdued and still requires substantial stimulus. In its spring economic outlook, the ECB raised euro area GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.6%.
The forecast for 2018 growth was 1.8%, unchanged from its winter economic outlook.
Consumer inflation is expected to rise to 1.6% this year from 0.2% in 2016.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1291
2nd Resistance: 1.1390
1st Support: 1.1194
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

GBP/USD

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, possibilities to get down to 1.28 area are high in the case of expected bad news from the UK but then a first relevant Support already triggered in area 1.283.

Sterling has seen choppy trading on polls suggesting outcomes ranging from a majority for Prime Minister Theresa May’s party to a ‘hung’ parliament in which no party has an overall majority.

Election gap between Labor and Conservative looks tightening and this leaves some doubts about future Brexit setups. A close election could throw Britain into political deadlock just days before formal Brexit talks with the European Union are due to begin on June 19.

UK GDP, Preliminary release, worse than expected, for the second time in a row but last Manufacturing PMI and Construction PMI were better than Expected.

Last UK Inflation (CPI) print was higher than expected and gave recently some vitality to GBP but the Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy at the outcome of its last meeting. Left interest rates on hold at current record lows and warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

7th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of April, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

12th of April, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

21st of April, UK Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

2nd of May, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of May, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

4th of May, Services PMI
Better than Expected

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

Eyes on today release: UK Services PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

AUD/USD

Australia GDP better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

Oil fell back following a brief recovery after Saudi Arabia and several other Arab states severed ties with Qatar, accusing it of supporting extremism and undermining regional stability.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls missed forecasts but U.S. Unemployment Rate better than Expected. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI again better than expected confirming a strong long-lasting trend but now we have to consider Trump’s agenda after the potential collusion of “Russiagate” scandal. U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions looks ready to resign.

Australia Retail Sales better than expected. Australia Employment Change also was better than expected (it is the 5th time over the last 6 months).

As we wrote, Resistance in 0.7472 area again under test with next possible overextension up to 0.757 area, mainly linked to Oil prices’ future alignments.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7472
2nd Resistance: 0.7570
1st Support: 0.7400
2nd Support: 0.7310

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

https://my.sgtmarkets.com

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

A report stated that European Central Bank (ECB) would cut inflation forecasts for the next three years, sparking speculation that the euro area monetary authority will maintain its dovish stance. Weaker energy prices forced the ECB staff to reconsider its projections for inflation of just 1.5% through 2019, compared to the prior estimates released in March of 1.7% for this year, 1.6% for 2018 and 1.7% for 2019.

Market participants will pay attention to President Mario Draghi’s statements for his view on the euro zone economy. Draghi said last week that while euro zone growth may be improving, inflation (which is expected to rise to 1.6% this year from 0.2% in 2016) remains subdued and still requires substantial stimulus.

Comey will testify as he was investigating whether Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and Russia colluded to sway the 2016 U.S. election when he was fired by Trump in May. Investors are worried his testimony could dampen already flagging momentum for Trump’s agenda of rolling back regulations and overhauling the tax code. U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions looks ready to resign.

German Unemployment Change better than expected while Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) slowed down along with German CPI.

Most analysts still believe the disappointing data will not stop the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates at its meeting later this month. 1.129 strong resistance again under test, and we expected price to fall down to 1.12, first, that already happened. Now 1.12 shall be retested and 1.11 can be targeted as well so to test the strong supports in that area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1291
2nd Resistance: 1.1390
1st Support: 1.1194
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

GBP/USD

1.298 area is a strong Resistance and it is under test. Possibilities to drop down to 1.28 area are high in the case of expected bad news from the UK but a first relevant Support already triggered in area 1.283. In the opposite case, overextension to 1.319 area can be expected.

Election day. Sterling has seen choppy trading on polls suggesting outcomes ranging from a majority for Prime Minister Theresa May’s party to a ‘hung’ parliament in which no party has an overall majority.
Election gap between Labor and Conservative looks tightening and this leaves some doubts about future Brexit setups. A close election could throw Britain into political deadlock just days before formal Brexit talks with the European Union are due to begin on June 19.

UK GDP, Preliminary release, worse than expected, for the second time in a row but last Manufacturing PMI and Construction PMI were better than Expected.

Last UK Inflation (CPI) print was higher than expected and gave recently some vitality to GBP but the Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy at the outcome of its last meeting. Left interest rates on hold at current record lows and warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

7th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of April, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

12th of April, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

21st of April, UK Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

2nd of May, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of May, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

4th of May, Services PMI
Better than Expected

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: UK General Elections

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

AUD/USD

Australia GDP better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

Oil fell back following a brief recovery after Saudi Arabia and several other Arab states severed ties with Qatar, accusing it of supporting extremism and undermining regional stability.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls missed forecasts but U.S. Unemployment Rate better than Expected. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI again better than expected confirming a strong long-lasting trend but now we have to consider Trump’s agenda after the potential collusion of “Russiagate” scandal. U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions looks ready to resign.

Australia Retail Sales better than expected. Australia Employment Change also was better than expected (it is the 5th time over the last 6 months).

As we wrote, next possible overextension up to 0.757 area, mainly linked to Oil prices’ future alignments. There we will find AUD/USD clearly overbought.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7570
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7408
2nd Support: 0.7310

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

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EUR/USD

The deposit rate was kept unchanged at minus 0.4 percent and the main refinancing rate at zero. The European Central Bank ruled out further interest-rate cuts in a sign that it’s moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program. Policy makers reiterated their pledge to increase the size or duration of their bond-buying program if the economy deteriorates. Updated forecasts show a stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon.

Comey testified and Jeff Sessions, Trump’s attorney General, seems now heavily involved. According to Comey, Russia interfered on U.S. elections, this is the meaning of Russiagate. Investors are worried his testimony could dampen already flagging momentum for Trump’s agenda of rolling back regulations and overhauling the tax code. Traders will turn their attention to U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to deliver this year’s second rate hike.

German Unemployment Change better than expected while Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) slowed down along with German CPI.

Most analysts still believe the disappointing data will not stop the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates at its meeting later this month. 1.129 strong resistance was again under test, and we expected price to fall down to 1.12, first, that already happened. Now 1.12, which is a good Support, shall be retested and 1.11 can be targeted as well so to test the strong supports in that area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1291
2nd Resistance: 1.1390
1st Support: 1.1194
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

GBP/USD

1.298 area was a strong Resistance and it was under test, as we wrote in the previous commentaries. Now, after bad news from election day, everything dropped to 1.27, important support, with chances to reach 1.253 area.

The pound fell sharply on Friday after British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election. May faced calls to quit on Friday after her election gamble to win a stronger mandate backfired, leaving no single party with a clear claim to power just 10 days ahead of the start of negotiations on Britain’s divorce from the European Union.

Last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production were worse than expected.

UK GDP, Preliminary release, worse than expected, for the second time in a row but last Manufacturing PMI and Construction PMI were better than Expected.

Last UK Inflation (CPI) print was higher than expected and gave recently some vitality to GBP but the Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy at the outcome of its last meeting. Left interest rates on hold at current record lows and warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2830
2nd Resistance: 1.2978
1st Support: 1.2705
2nd Support: 1.2530

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

7th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of April, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

12th of April, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

21st of April, UK Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

2nd of May, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of May, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

4th of May, Services PMI
Better than Expected

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

AUD/USD

Australia GDP better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

Oil prices stabilized, but they were still pressured by evidence of an ongoing fuel glut despite efforts led by OPEC to tighten the market by holding back production.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls missed forecasts but U.S. Unemployment Rate better than Expected. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI again better than expected confirming a strong long-lasting trend but now we have to consider Trump’s agenda after the potential collusion of “Russiagate” scandal. Comey testified and traders will turn their attention to next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to deliver this year’s second rate hike.

Australia Retail Sales better than expected. Australia Employment Change also was better than expected (it is the 5th time over the last 6 months).

As we wrote, next possible overextension up to 0.757 area, mainly linked to Oil prices’ future alignments. There we will find AUD/USD clearly overbought. In the opposite scenario, first Support on 0.748 and second and more important in area 0.7408.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7570
2nd Resistance: 0.7680
1st Support: 0.7408
2nd Support: 0.7310

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

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EUR/USD

French NFP higher than expected, now eyes on German ZEW Economic Sentiment and U.S. Producer Price Index.

The deposit rate was kept unchanged at minus 0.4 percent and the main refinancing rate at zero. The European Central Bank ruled out further interest-rate cuts in a sign that it’s moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program. Policy makers reiterated their pledge to increase the size or duration of their bond-buying program if the economy deteriorates. Updated forecasts show a stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon.

Traders will turn their attention to U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to deliver this year’s second rate hike.

German Unemployment Change better than expected while Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) slowed down along with German CPI.

Most analysts still believe the disappointing data will not stop the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates at its meeting later this month. 1.129 strong resistance was again under test, and we expected price to fall down to 1.12, first, that already happened. Now 1.12, which is a good Support, shall be retested and 1.11 can be targeted as well so to test the strong supports in that area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1291
2nd Resistance: 1.1390
1st Support: 1.1194
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: German Zew Economic Sentiment

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Producer Price Index

GBP/USD

Eyes on today UK CPI (Inflation) data.

1.298 area was a strong Resistance and it was under test, as we wrote in the previous commentaries. Now, after bad news from election day, everything dropped to 1.27, important Support, with chances to bounce up a little bit.

The pound fell sharply on Friday after British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election. May faced calls to quit on Friday after her election gamble to win a stronger mandate backfired, leaving no single party with a clear claim to power just 10 days ahead of the start of negotiations on Britain’s divorce from the European Union.

Last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production were worse than expected.

UK GDP, Preliminary release, worse than expected, for the second time in a row but last Manufacturing PMI and Construction PMI were better than Expected.

Last UK Inflation (CPI) print was higher than expected and gave recently some vitality to GBP but the Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy at the outcome of its last meeting. Left interest rates on hold at current record lows and warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2830
2nd Resistance: 1.2978
1st Support: 1.2705
2nd Support: 1.2530

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

7th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of April, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

12th of April, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

21st of April, UK Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

2nd of May, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of May, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

4th of May, Services PMI
Better than Expected

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: UK CPI

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Producer Price Index

AUD/USD

Eyes on today OPEC report.

Australia GDP better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

Oil prices stabilized, but they were still pressured by evidence of an ongoing fuel glut despite efforts led by OPEC to tighten the market by holding back production.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls missed forecasts but U.S. Unemployment Rate better than Expected. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI again better than expected confirming a strong long-lasting trend but now traders will turn their attention to next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to deliver this year’s second rate hike.

Australia Retail Sales better than expected. Australia Employment Change also was better than expected (it is the 5th time over the last 6 months).

Insisted overextension in 0.757 area seems destined to end and leave place to an exhaustion pattern, but an eventually breakout is possible and it depends closely on Oil prices’ future alignments. In the opposite scenario, first Support on 0.748 and second and more important in area 0.7408.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7570
2nd Resistance: 0.7680
1st Support: 0.7408
2nd Support: 0.7310

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Producer Price Index

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EUR/USD

Eyes on today U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC Interest Rates Decision and Statement.
French NFP higher than expected. Last German ZEW Economic Sentiment released confirmed its slowdown.

The ECB deposit rate was kept unchanged at minus 0.4 percent and the main refinancing rate at zero. The European Central Bank ruled out further interest-rate cuts in a sign that it’s moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program. Policy makers reiterated their pledge to increase the size or duration of their bond-buying program if the economy deteriorates. Updated forecasts show a stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon.

German Unemployment Change better than expected while Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) slowed down along with German CPI.

Most analysts still believe the disappointing data will not stop the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates at its meeting later this month. 1.129 strong resistance was again under test, and we expected price to fall down to 1.12, first, that already happened. Now 1.12, which is a good Support, under test and 1.11 can be targeted as well so to test the strong supports in that area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1291
2nd Resistance: 1.1390
1st Support: 1.1194
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement

GBP/USD

UK CPI (Inflation) data again higher than expected. Now eyes on today U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC Interest Rates Decision and Statement.

1.298 area was a strong Resistance and it was under test, as we wrote in the previous commentaries. Now, after bad news from election day, 1.27 area was repeatedly tested. We pointed out that from that level we could have chances to bounce up a little bit. Now we await the price in area 1.2830, first Resistance.

The pound fell sharply on Friday after British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election. May faced calls to quit on Friday after her election gamble to win a stronger mandate backfired, leaving no single party with a clear claim to power just 10 days ahead of the start of negotiations on Britain’s divorce from the European Union.

Last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production were worse than expected.

UK GDP, Preliminary release, worse than expected, for the second time in a row but last Manufacturing PMI and Construction PMI were better than Expected.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2830
2nd Resistance: 1.2978
1st Support: 1.2705
2nd Support: 1.2530

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

7th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of April, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

12th of April, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

21st of April, UK Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

2nd of May, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of May, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

4th of May, Services PMI
Better than Expected

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

Eyes on today release: UK Job Market

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement

AUD/USD

OPEC said a long-awaited rebalancing of the oil market was under way at a “slower pace” and reported that its own output in May jumped due to gains in nations exempt from a pact to reduce supply.
Now eyes on today U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC Interest Rates Decision and Statement and Australia Employment Change.

Australia GDP better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

Insisted overextension in 0.757 area seems destined to end and leave place to an exhaustion pattern, but an eventually breakout is possible and it depends closely on Oil prices’ future alignments. In the breakout scenario, first Resistance is 0.768. In the opposite scenario, first Support on 0.748 and second and more important in area 0.740.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7570
2nd Resistance: 0.7680
1st Support: 0.7408
2nd Support: 0.7310

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Australia Employment Change

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement

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EUR/USD

Federal Reserve FOMC raised Interest Rates. The core rate of inflation in the U.S. increased at just 1.7 percent on year, the fourth straight monthly deceleration and the slowest overall pace in two years. The Fed said a recent softening in inflation was seen as transitory, but the latest tepid price readings made investors question its view that the U.S. economy is continuing to improve. Washington Post reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is being investigated by special counsel Robert Mueller for possible obstruction of justice.

French NFP higher than expected. Last German ZEW Economic Sentiment released confirmed its slowdown.

The ECB deposit rate was kept unchanged at minus 0.4 percent and the main refinancing rate at zero. The European Central Bank ruled out further interest-rate cuts in a sign that it’s moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program. Policy makers reiterated their pledge to increase the size or duration of their bond-buying program if the economy deteriorates. Updated forecasts show a stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon.

German Unemployment Change better than expected while Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) slowed down along with German CPI.

1.129 strong resistance was again under test. Now 1.12, which is a good Support, under test and 1.11 can be targeted as well so to test the strong supports in that area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1291
2nd Resistance: 1.1390
1st Support: 1.1194
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected

GBP/USD

Federal Reserve FOMC raised Interest Rates. The core rate of inflation in the U.S. increased at just 1.7 percent on year, the fourth straight monthly deceleration and the slowest overall pace in two years. UK CPI (Inflation) data again higher than expected.

Eyes on today UK Retail Sales and Bank of England Meeting Minutes.

1.298 area was a strong Resistance and it was under test, as we wrote in the previous commentaries. Now, after bad news from election day, 1.27 area is going to be repeatedly tested.

The pound fell sharply on Friday after British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election. May faced calls to quit on Friday after her election gamble to win a stronger mandate backfired, leaving no single party with a clear claim to power ahead of the start of negotiations on Britain’s divorce from the European Union.

Last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production were worse than expected.

UK GDP, Preliminary release, worse than expected, for the second time in a row but last Manufacturing PMI and Construction PMI were better than Expected.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2830
2nd Resistance: 1.2978
1st Support: 1.2705
2nd Support: 1.2530

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

7th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of April, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

12th of April, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

21st of April, UK Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

2nd of May, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of May, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

4th of May, Services PMI
Better than Expected

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Eyes on today Retail Sales + Bank of England Meeting Minutes

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected

AUD/USD

OPEC said a long-awaited rebalancing of the oil market was under way at a “slower pace” and reported that its own output in May jumped due to gains in nations exempt from a pact to reduce supply.
Federal Reserve FOMC raised Interest Rates. The core rate of inflation in the U.S. increased at just 1.7 percent on year, the fourth straight monthly deceleration and the slowest overall pace in two years. Australia Employment and job creation confirmed to grow.

Australia GDP better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

Insisted overextension in 0.757 area seems destined to end and leave place to an exhaustion pattern, but an eventually breakout is possible and it depends closely on Oil prices’ future alignments. In the breakout scenario now ongoing, first Resistance is 0.768 and second target is 0.773.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7480
2nd Support: 0.7408

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected

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EUR/USD

Good jobless claims and manufacturing activities in the states of New York and Philadelphia gave the USD some strength.

Federal Reserve FOMC raised Interest Rates. The core rate of inflation in the U.S. increased at just 1.7 percent on year, the fourth straight monthly deceleration and the slowest overall pace in two years. The Fed said a recent softening in inflation was seen as transitory, but the latest tepid price readings made investors question its view that the U.S. economy is continuing to improve. Washington Post reported that U.S. President Donald Trump is being investigated by special counsel Robert Mueller for possible obstruction of justice.

French NFP higher than expected. Last German ZEW Economic Sentiment released confirmed its slowdown.

The ECB deposit rate was kept unchanged at minus 0.4 percent and the main refinancing rate at zero. The European Central Bank ruled out further interest-rate cuts in a sign that it’s moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program. Policy makers reiterated their pledge to increase the size or duration of their bond-buying program if the economy deteriorates. Updated forecasts show a stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon.

German Unemployment Change better than expected while Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) slowed down along with German CPI.

1.129 strong resistance was repeatedly under test. As we wrote previously, 1.11 could be targeted as well so to test the strong supports in that area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.1291
2nd Resistance: 1.1390
1st Support: 1.1194
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Eurozone CPI

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected

GBP/USD

Federal Reserve FOMC raised Interest Rates. The core rate of inflation in the U.S. increased at just 1.7 percent on year, the fourth straight monthly deceleration and the slowest overall pace in two years.

UK CPI (Inflation) data again higher than expected while UK Retail Sales worse than expected. Last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production were worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release.

1.298 area was a strong Resistance and it was under test, as we wrote in the previous commentaries. Now, after bad news from election day, 1.27 area is going to be repeatedly tested.

The pound fell sharply on Friday after British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election. May faced calls to quit on Friday after her election gamble to win a stronger mandate backfired, leaving no single party with a clear claim to power ahead of the start of negotiations on Britain’s divorce from the European Union.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2830
2nd Resistance: 1.2978
1st Support: 1.2705
2nd Support: 1.2530

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

7th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of April, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

12th of April, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

21st of April, UK Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

2nd of May, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of May, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

4th of May, Services PMI
Better than Expected

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected

AUD/USD

OPEC said a long-awaited rebalancing of the oil market was under way at a “slower pace” and reported that its own output in May jumped due to gains in nations exempt from a pact to reduce supply.
Federal Reserve FOMC raised Interest Rates. The core rate of inflation in the U.S. increased at just 1.7 percent on year, the fourth straight monthly deceleration and the slowest overall pace in two years. Australia Employment and job creation confirmed to grow.

Australia GDP better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

Insisted overextension in 0.757 area seems destined to end and leave place to an exhaustion pattern, but an eventually breakout is possible and it depends closely on Oil prices’ future alignments. In the breakout scenario now ongoing, first Resistance is 0.768 and second target is 0.773. If price will be back below 0.757 then it is likely to see it dropping in area 0.748, first, and 0.740, finally.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7480
2nd Support: 0.7408

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected

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EUR/USD

Federal Reserve FOMC raised Interest Rates. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who was unabashedly hawkish, failed to convince the market that the economy is as rosy as she thinks. Investors are skeptical because of all the recent disappointments in U.S. data including consumer confidence and housing-market reports. With no major U.S. economic data scheduled for release this week, investors will be watching Fed speak to see whether the 6 U.S. policymakers scheduled to speak will confirm Yellen’s hawkishness.
Washington Post reported that U.S. President Donald Trump is being investigated by special counsel Robert Mueller for possible obstruction of justice.

On the other hand, French NFP higher than expected but last German ZEW Economic Sentiment released confirmed its slowdown.

The ECB deposit rate was kept unchanged at minus 0.4 percent and the main refinancing rate at zero. The European Central Bank ruled out further interest-rate cuts in a sign that it’s moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program. Policy makers reiterated their pledge to increase the size or duration of their bond-buying program if the economy deteriorates. Updated forecasts show a stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon.

German Unemployment Change better than expected while Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) slowed down along with German CPI.

Ranging between 1.129, strong resistance repeatedly under test, and 1.112. As we wrote previously, 1.11 could be retested in search of the strong supports in that area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.1291
2nd Resistance: 1.1390
1st Support: 1.1194
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected

GBP/USD

Federal Reserve FOMC raised Interest Rates. The core rate of inflation in the U.S. increased at just 1.7 percent on year, the fourth straight monthly deceleration and the slowest overall pace in two years.

UK CPI (Inflation) data again higher than expected while UK Retail Sales worse than expected. Last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production were worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release.

1.298 area and 1.283 area are strong Resistances and they were under test, as we wrote in the previous commentaries. We believe the risk is to the downside for GBP/USD. If GBP/USD fails to break above 1.29, it should sink back to 1.27 area (important Support which could be tested more than once).

Brexit Secretary David Davis starts negotiations in Brussels, which will be followed by a Brussels summit during this week where British Prime Minister Theresa May will encounter fellow European Union leaders.

The pound fell sharply on Friday after British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, leaving no single party with a clear claim to power ahead of the start of negotiations on Britain’s divorce from the European Union.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2830
2nd Resistance: 1.2978
1st Support: 1.2705
2nd Support: 1.2530

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

7th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of April, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

12th of April, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

21st of April, UK Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

2nd of May, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of May, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

4th of May, Services PMI
Better than Expected

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected

AUD/USD

A large part of the gains in the Australian dollar was driven by the Country’s job market report (seen as stronger-than-expected). The strength caught investors by surprise and helped take AUD/USD out of its 0.757 psychological barrier to its strongest level in 2 months.
Australia GDP also better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

Insisted overextension above 0.757 area seems destined to end and leave place to an exhaustion pattern, but an eventually breakout is possible and it depends closely on Oil prices’ future alignments. In the breakout scenario now ongoing, first Resistance is 0.768 and second target is 0.773. If price will be back below 0.757 then it is likely to see it dropping in area 0.748, first, and 0.740, finally.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7480
2nd Support: 0.7408

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected

Home - SGT MARKETS

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EUR/USD

Eyes on U.S. Federal Reserve members’ speeches.

Federal Reserve FOMC raised Interest Rates. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who was unabashedly hawkish, failed to convince the market that the economy is as rosy as she thinks. Investors are skeptical because of all the recent disappointments in U.S. data including consumer confidence and housing-market reports. With no major U.S. economic data scheduled for release this week, investors will be watching Fed speak to see whether the 6 U.S. policymakers scheduled to speak will confirm Yellen’s hawkishness.
Washington Post reported that U.S. President Donald Trump is being investigated by special counsel Robert Mueller for possible obstruction of justice.

On the other hand, French NFP higher than expected but last German ZEW Economic Sentiment released confirmed its slowdown.

The ECB deposit rate was kept unchanged at minus 0.4 percent and the main refinancing rate at zero. The European Central Bank ruled out further interest-rate cuts in a sign that it’s moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program. Policy makers reiterated their pledge to increase the size or duration of their bond-buying program if the economy deteriorates. Updated forecasts show a stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon.

German Unemployment Change better than expected while Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) slowed down along with German CPI.

Ranging between 1.129, strong resistance repeatedly under test, and 1.112. As we wrote previously, 1.11 could be retested in search of the strong supports in that area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.1194
2nd Resistance: 1.1291
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.1022

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected

GBP/USD

Eyes on today Bank Of England Governor Carney’s speech and on U.S. Federal Reserve members’ speeches.

Federal Reserve FOMC raised Interest Rates. The core rate of inflation in the U.S. increased at just 1.7 percent on year, the fourth straight monthly deceleration and the slowest overall pace in two years.

UK CPI (Inflation) data again higher than expected while UK Retail Sales worse than expected. Last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production were worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release.

1.298 area and 1.283 area are strong Resistances and they were under test, as we wrote in the previous commentaries. We believe the risk is to the downside for GBP/USD. If GBP/USD fails to break above 1.283, it should sink back to 1.27 area (important Support which could be tested more than once).

Brexit Secretary David Davis starts negotiations in Brussels, which will be followed by a Brussels summit during this week where British Prime Minister Theresa May will encounter fellow European Union leaders.

The pound fell sharply on Friday after British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, leaving no single party with a clear claim to power ahead of the start of negotiations on Britain’s divorce from the European Union.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2830
2nd Resistance: 1.2978
1st Support: 1.2705
2nd Support: 1.2530

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

7th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of April, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

12th of April, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

21st of April, UK Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

2nd of May, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of May, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

4th of May, Services PMI
Better than Expected

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected

AUD/USD

Eyes on U.S. Federal Reserve members’ speeches.

A large part of the gains in the Australian dollar was driven by the Country’s job market report (seen as stronger-than-expected). The strength caught investors by surprise and helped take AUD/USD out of its 0.757 psychological barrier to its strongest level in 2 months.
Australia GDP also better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

Insisted overextension above 0.757 area seems destined to end and leave place to an exhaustion pattern, but an eventually breakout is possible and it depends closely on Oil prices’ future alignments. In the breakout scenario now ongoing, first Resistance is 0.768 and second target is 0.773. If price will be back below 0.757 then it is likely to see it dropping in area 0.748, first, and 0.740, finally.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7480
2nd Support: 0.7408

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected

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EUR/USD

Federal Reserve FOMC raised Interest Rates. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who was unabashedly hawkish, failed to convince the market that the economy is as rosy as she thinks. Investors are skeptical because of all the recent disappointments in U.S. data, including consumer confidence and housing-market reports, but recently scheduled Fed’s speeches are providing hints for a persisting hawkishness.

On the other hand, French NFP higher than expected but last German ZEW Economic Sentiment released confirmed its slowdown.

The ECB deposit rate was kept unchanged at minus 0.4 percent and the main refinancing rate at zero. The European Central Bank ruled out further interest-rate cuts in a sign that it’s moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program. Policy makers reiterated their pledge to increase the size or duration of their bond-buying program if the economy deteriorates. Updated forecasts show a stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon.

German Unemployment Change better than expected while Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release) slowed down along with German CPI.

After weeks ranging between 1.129, strong resistance repeatedly under test, and 1.112, as we wrote previously, 1.11 could be retested in search of the strong supports in that area. And now we expect a consolidation around that level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1194
2nd Resistance: 1.1291
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.1022

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

3rd of March, ISM Non-manufacturing PMI + Fed Chair Yellen Speech
ISM Non-manufacturing PMI Better than Expected, Yellen noted that a rate increase at next meeting “would likely be appropriate” insisting on the condition that data on employment and inflation have to move in line with expectations.

8th of March, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

10th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

14th of March, Producer Price Index
Higher than Expected

15th of March, Core CPI + Retail Sales
As Expected

15th of March, FOMC Economic Projections + FOMC Statement + Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Press Conference
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% to a 0.75-1% range. Dovish speech of Chairwoman Yellen

24th of March, Manufacturing PMI + Services PMI (preliminary release)
Worse than Expected (4th time in a row)

28th of March, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected (the highest since December 2000)

30th of March, GDP
Better than Expected

5th of April, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected

7th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

14th of April, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Core CPI (Inflation) Lower than Expected
Retail Sales Worse than Expected

20th of April, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

27th of April, Durable Good Orders + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected but Price Index Higher than Expected

3rd of May, ADP Nonfarm Employment
ADP Nonfarm Employment better than Expected

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected

GBP/USD

Bank of England Governor Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

Federal Reserve FOMC raised Interest Rates. The core rate of inflation in the U.S. increased at just 1.7 percent on year, the fourth straight monthly deceleration and the slowest overall pace in two years.

UK CPI (Inflation) data again higher than expected while UK Retail Sales worse than expected. Last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production were worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release.

As we wrote, failing to break above 1.283 (along with the negative post-Brexit sentiment) led back below 1.27 area where important Supports converge. If price will free fall, then we can set next Support only as low as 1.253.

Brexit Secretary David Davis starts negotiations in Brussels, which will be followed by a Brussels summit during this week where British Prime Minister Theresa May will encounter fellow European Union leaders.

The pound fell sharply on Friday after British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, leaving no single party with a clear claim to power ahead of the start of negotiations on Britain’s divorce from the European Union.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2705
2nd Resistance: 1.2830
1st Support: 1.2530
2nd Support: 1.2380

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

21st of March, CPI
CPI Higher than Expected

23rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

31st of March, GDP YoY
Worse than Expected

3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

5th of April, Services PMI
Better than Expected

7th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

11th of April, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

12th of April, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

21st of April, UK Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

28th of April, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

2nd of May, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

3rd of May, Construction PMI
Better than Expected

4th of May, Services PMI
Better than Expected

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Recently scheduled Fed’s speeches are providing hawkishness while GBP is seen in a bearish global setup.

A large part of the gains in the Australian dollar was driven by the Country’s job market report (seen as stronger-than-expected). The strength caught investors by surprise and helped take AUD/USD out of its 0.757 psychological barrier to its strongest level in 2 months.
Australia GDP also better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

As we wrote, insisted overextension above 0.757 area seemed destined to end and leave place to an exhaustion pattern, and if price will fall consistently below 0.757 then it is likely to see area 0.748, first, and 0.740, finally (closing the technical figure opened at the beginning of June).

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7480
2nd Support: 0.7408

AUD

Recent Facts:

1st of November, RBA Interest Rates Statement
RBA’s Governor Lowe signals tolerance for weak inflation and bets seem off for future rate cuts

3rd of November, RBA Monetary Policy Statement + Retail Sales
RBA said it is focused on the medium-term inflation target
Retail Sales better than Expected

8th of November, ELECTION OF THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Donald Trump elected President

9th of November, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates cut to 1.75% from 2.00% as Expected

19th of December, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
Scott Morrison announced lower than an original prediction of A$37.1 billion, investors see it as promising to stave off a downgrade of its AAA (triple A) rating from S&P Global

9th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

19th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected

25th of January, CPI (Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
Lower than Expected

1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

2nd of February, Building Approvals + Trade Balance
Better than Expected

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

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EUR/USD

Recently scheduled Fed’s speeches are providing hints for a persisting hawkishness on USD, U.S. house market seems to get better as well.

On the other hand, French NFP higher than expected but last German ZEW Economic Sentiment released confirmed its slowdown.

The ECB deposit rate was kept unchanged at minus 0.4 percent and the main refinancing rate at zero. The European Central Bank ruled out further interest-rate cuts in a sign that it’s moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program. Policy makers reiterated their pledge to increase the size or duration of their bond-buying program if the economy deteriorates. Updated forecasts show a stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon.

After weeks ranging between 1.129, strong resistance repeatedly under test, and 1.112, as we wrote previously, 1.11 could be retested in search of the strong supports in that area. And now we expect a consolidation around that level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1194
2nd Resistance: 1.1291
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.1022

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

GBP/USD

The day after Governor Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union, Pound attempted a significant recovery as Bank of England (BoE) chief economist Haldane revealed that he is likely to vote for rate hike “relatively soon”.

UK CPI (Inflation) data again higher than expected while UK Retail Sales worse than expected. Last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production were worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release.

Federal Reserve FOMC raised Interest Rates. The core rate of inflation in the U.S. increased at just 1.7 percent on year, the fourth straight monthly deceleration and the slowest overall pace in two years.

As we wrote, failing to break above 1.283 (along with the negative post-Brexit sentiment) drove GBP/USD back below 1.27 area where important Supports converge and where opposite pressures will balance in a consolidation setup.

Brexit Secretary David Davis starts negotiations in Brussels, which will be followed by a Brussels summit during this week where British Prime Minister Theresa May will encounter fellow European Union leaders.

The pound fell sharply on Friday after British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, leaving no single party with a clear claim to power ahead of the start of negotiations on Britain’s divorce from the European Union.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2705
2nd Resistance: 1.2830
1st Support: 1.2530
2nd Support: 1.2380

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

AUD/USD

Recently scheduled Fed’s speeches are providing hawkishness while UK (commonwealth included) is seen in a bearish global setup. Crude oil was subdued because of investors’ doubts about the overall timing of output cuts ruled by OPEC after a drop in U.S. inventories.

A large part of the gains in the Australian dollar was driven by the Country’s job market report (seen as stronger-than-expected). The strength caught investors by surprise and helped take AUD/USD out of its 0.757 psychological barrier to its strongest level in 2 months.
Australia GDP also better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

Channelling between 0.74 and 0.76, insisted overextension above 0.757 area ended and left place to an exhaustion pattern. If price will fall consistently below 0.757 then it is likely to see area 0.748, first, and 0.740, finally (closing the technical figure opened at the beginning of June).

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7480
2nd Support: 0.7408

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

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EUR/USD

German Manufacturing PMI better than expected, German Services decline.
Eyes also on Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary release).

The Fed remains on track for a third rate hike this year despite not-so-strong inflation. However, the market odds of a hike later in the year remain low. U.S. house market seems to get better as well (let’s check confirmations with today New Home Sales release).

On the other hand, French Manufacturing PMI and NFP higher than expected but last German ZEW Economic Sentiment released confirmed its slowdown.

The ECB deposit rate was kept unchanged at minus 0.4 percent and the main refinancing rate at zero. The European Central Bank ruled out further interest-rate cuts in a sign that it’s moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program. Policy makers reiterated their pledge to increase the size or duration of their bond-buying program if the economy deteriorates. Updated forecasts show a stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon.

Even earlier than hitting our First Resistance at 1.1194, we expected a downmove (due to relative strength of USD expectations) and 1.11 could be retested in search of the strong supports in that area. Finally, we expect a consolidation around that level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.1194
2nd Resistance: 1.1291
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.1022

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI…

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

GBP/USD

The day after Governor Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union, Pound attempted a significant recovery as Bank of England (BoE) chief economist Haldane revealed that he is likely to vote for rate hike “relatively soon”.

UK CPI (Inflation) data again higher than expected while UK Retail Sales worse than expected. Last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production were worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release.

Current price struggling around our Resistance (1.2705 area) after that the negative post-Brexit sentiment drove GBP/USD back below 1.27 area where important Supports converge. Now we expect a re-test below 1.27 back again and finally a consolidation setup around that area.

Brexit Secretary David Davis starts negotiations in Brussels, which will be followed by a Brussels summit during this week where British Prime Minister Theresa May will encounter fellow European Union leaders.

The pound fell sharply on Friday after British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, leaving no single party with a clear claim to power ahead of the start of negotiations on Britain’s divorce from the European Union.

And there are still some unresolved tensions with Scotland and Northern Ireland, which voted against leaving the EU. Theresa May provided no clear plan about the comprehensive “free-trade” partnership with EU members she wants to achieve.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2705
2nd Resistance: 1.2830
1st Support: 1.2530
2nd Support: 1.2380

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

AUD/USD

Recently scheduled Fed’s speeches are providing hawkishness while UK (commonwealth included) is seen in a bearish global setup. Crude oil was subdued because of investors’ doubts about the overall timing of output cuts ruled by OPEC after a drop in U.S. inventories.

A large part of the gains in the Australian dollar was driven by the Country’s job market report (seen as stronger-than-expected). The strength caught investors by surprise and helped take AUD/USD out of its 0.757 psychological barrier to its strongest level in 2 months.
Australia GDP also better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

Insisted overextension above 0.757 area ended but now that level should work as significant Resistance. If price will fall consistently below 0.757 then it is likely to see area 0.748, first, and 0.740, finally (closing the technical figure opened at the beginning of June). In the opposite scenario, only a breakout of 0.764 will lead up to our first new Resistance in area 0.768.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7480
2nd Support: 0.7408

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

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