FX Analysis by SGT Markets

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

German Manufacturing PMI better than expected, German Services declined. Same for Eurozone data (Preliminary releases).

U.S. house market seems to get better as well, while Manufacturing PMI slows down. The market odds of a hike later in the year remain low.

On the other hand, French Manufacturing PMI and NFP higher than expected but last German ZEW Economic Sentiment released confirmed its slowdown. Italian municipal elections marks a change with right-wing (no-euro) parties placing more mayors than expected.

ECB’s member Weidmann said that it is time for ECB to exit stimulus. Weidmann, potential successor to ECB President Mario Draghi when his term ends in late 2019, also said that Germany was not in need of stimulus as employment and capacity utilization were already high. Updated forecasts in the Eurozone show a stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon.

Even earlier than hitting our First Resistance at 1.1194, we expected a downmove (due to relative strength of USD expectations) and 1.11 could be retested in search of the strong supports in that area. Now we are overbought in Resistance area and we expect a consolidation below present level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.1194
2nd Resistance: 1.1291
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.1022

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: German Ifo Business Climate

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Durable Goods Orders

GBP/USD

Before the June 8 election, May proposed a clean break from the EU: leaving its single market and proposing limits on immigration and a bespoke customs deal with the EU. But the election result deprived her Conservative Party of its majority in parliament, and now May’s Brexit strategy is being picked apart - and softened - in public by her ministers, lawmakers and allies.

The day after Governor Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union, Pound attempted a significant recovery as Bank of England (BoE) chief economist Haldane revealed that he is likely to vote for rate hike “relatively soon”.

UK CPI (Inflation) data again higher than expected while UK Retail Sales worse than expected. Last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production were worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release.

Current price struggling around our Resistance (1.2705 area) after that the negative post-Brexit sentiment drove GBP/USD back below 1.27 area where important Supports converge. Now we are in overbought area and expect a re-test below 1.27 back again, and finally a consolidation setup around that area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2705
2nd Resistance: 1.2830
1st Support: 1.2530
2nd Support: 1.2380

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Durable Goods Orders

AUD/USD

Recently scheduled Fed’s speeches are providing hawkishness while UK (commonwealth included) is seen in a bearish global setup. Nigeria and Libya, which were exempt from the OPEC-led cuts, have also increased production and last increase in U.S. output has undermined the impact on inventories of output cuts by major producers.

So large part of the gains in the Australian dollar is still driven by the Country’s job market report (seen as stronger-than-expected). Australia GDP also better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

Insisted overextension above 0.757 area ended but now that level should work as significant Resistance. If price will fall consistently below 0.757 then it is likely to see area 0.748, first, and 0.740, finally (closing the technical figure opened at the beginning of June). In the opposite scenario, only a breakout of 0.764 will lead up to our first new Resistance in area 0.768.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7480
2nd Support: 0.7408

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Durable Goods Orders

Home - SGT MARKETS

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EUR/USD

Today ECB’s President Draghi will speak as well as Fed Chair Yellen.

German Manufacturing PMI better than expected, German Services declined. Same for Eurozone data (Preliminary releases).

U.S. house market seems to get better as well, while Manufacturing PMI slows down. The market odds of a hike later in the year remain low.

On the other hand, French Manufacturing PMI and NFP higher than expected but last German ZEW Economic Sentiment released confirmed its slowdown. Italian municipal elections marks a change with right-wing (no-euro) parties placing more mayors than expected.

ECB’s member Weidmann said that it is time for ECB to exit stimulus. Weidmann, potential successor to ECB President Mario Draghi when his term ends in late 2019, also said that Germany was not in need of stimulus as employment and capacity utilization were already high. Updated forecasts in the Eurozone show a stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon.

Even earlier than hitting our First Resistance at 1.1194, we expected a downmove (due to relative strength of USD expectations) and 1.11 could be retested in search of the strong supports in that area. Now we are overbought in Resistance area and we expect a consolidation below present level.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.1194
2nd Resistance: 1.1291
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.1022

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Today BoE’s Governor Carney will speak as well as Fed Chair Yellen.

British Prime Minister Theresa May reportedly reached an accord with the Democratic Unionist Party to allow the Tories to govern. The agreement could point to a so-called “softer” approach on the part of the May government in its divorce talks with Brussels.

The day after Governor Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union, Pound attempted a significant recovery as Bank of England (BoE) chief economist Haldane revealed that he is likely to vote for rate hike “relatively soon”.

UK CPI (Inflation) data again higher than expected while UK Retail Sales worse than expected. Last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production were worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release.

Current price struggling around our Resistance (1.2705 area) after that the negative post-Brexit sentiment drove GBP/USD back below 1.27 area where important Supports converge. Now we are in overbought area and expect a re-test below 1.27 back again, and finally a consolidation setup around that area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2705
2nd Resistance: 1.2830
1st Support: 1.2530
2nd Support: 1.2380

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

AUD/USD

Ahead end-of-week releases concerning Australia’s House Market.

Recently scheduled Fed’s speeches are providing hawkishness while UK (commonwealth included) is seen in a bearish global setup. Nigeria and Libya, which were exempt from the OPEC-led cuts, have also increased production and last increase in U.S. output has undermined the impact on inventories of output cuts by major producers.

So large part of the gains in the Australian dollar is still driven by the Country’s job market report (seen as stronger-than-expected). Australia GDP also better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

Insisted overextension above 0.757 area ended but now that level should work as significant Resistance. If price will fall consistently below 0.757 then it is likely to see area 0.748, first, and 0.740, finally (closing the technical figure opened at the beginning of June). In the opposite scenario, only a breakout of 0.764 will lead up to our first new Resistance in area 0.768.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7480
2nd Support: 0.7408

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

Home - SGT MARKETS

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EUR/USD

Draghi said the ECB sees growth that is above trend and well distributed across the euro area, but reiterated that “a considerable degree” of stimulus is still needed in the euro zone (stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon), and that the ECB must be “prudent” in how it unwinds it.

German Manufacturing PMI better than expected, German Services declined. Same for Eurozone data (Preliminary releases).

EUR/USD boosted up by dovish Fed’s hints. Yellen said that, even though jobless rate low, inflation has continued to run below Fed’s objectives. Fed is looking carefully at inflation expectations but they are not getting a consistent story on inflation.

Italian municipal elections marks a change with right-wing (no-euro) parties placing more mayors than expected.

1.1390 is the current important Resistance. Break out would push price up to 1.148. On the other hand, failing to break 1.139 will converge down to 1.1194 Support area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1390
2nd Resistance: 1.1480
1st Support: 1.1194
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Pending Home Sales

GBP/USD

GBP/USD boosted up by dovish Fed’s messages while British Prime Minister Theresa May reportedly reached an accord with the Democratic Unionist Party to allow the Tories to govern. The agreement could point to a so-called “softer” approach on the part of the May government in its divorce talks with Brussels.

The day after Governor Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union, Pound attempted a significant recovery as Bank of England (BoE) chief economist Haldane revealed that he is likely to vote for rate hike “relatively soon”.

UK CPI (Inflation) data again higher than expected while UK Retail Sales worse than expected. Last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production were worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release.

Current price struggling around our Resistance (1.283 area). Breakout of that level would push the price up to 1.2978 next Resistance area. On the other hand, failing to break 1.283 will create the setup for a Bearish wave down to 1.27 Support.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2830
2nd Resistance: 1.2978
1st Support: 1.2705
2nd Support: 1.2530

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Pending Home Sales

AUD/USD

Eyes on releases concerning Australia’s House Market.

Yellen said that, even though jobless rate low, inflation has continued to run below Fed’s objectives
Fed is looking carefully at inflation expectations but they are not getting a consistent story on inflation.
Nigeria and Libya, which were exempt from the OPEC-led cuts, have also increased production and last increase in U.S. output has undermined the impact on inventories of output cuts by major producers.

So large part of the gains in the Australian dollar is still driven by the Country’s job market report (seen as stronger-than-expected). Australia GDP also better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

If price will fall consistently below 0.757 then it is likely to see area 0.748, first, and 0.740, finally (closing the technical figure opened at the beginning of June). In the opposite scenario, only a breakout of 0.764 will lead up to our first new Resistance in area 0.768.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7480
2nd Support: 0.7408

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Pending Home Sales

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EUR/USD

Eyes on today Spanish and German CPI (Preliminary release) and U.S. GDP data.

Draghi said the ECB sees growth that is above trend and well distributed across the euro area, but reiterated that “a considerable degree” of stimulus is still needed in the euro zone (stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon), and that the ECB must be “prudent” in how it unwinds it. The euro reversed recent gains after Bloomberg reported that ECB sources said market misinterpreted Draghi’s remarks.

The speech “was intended to strike a balance between recognizing the currency bloc’s economic strength and warning that monetary support is still needed” Bloomberg said.

German Manufacturing PMI better than expected, German Services declined. Same for Eurozone data (Preliminary releases).

EUR/USD boosted up by dovish Fed’s hints. Yellen said that, even though jobless rate low, inflation has continued to run below Fed’s objectives. Fed is looking carefully at inflation expectations but they are not getting a consistent story on inflation.

Italian municipal elections marks a change with right-wing (no-euro) parties placing more mayors than expected.

1.1390 is the current important Resistance. Break out would push price up to 1.148. On the other hand, failing to break 1.139 will converge down to 1.1194 Support area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1390
2nd Resistance: 1.1480
1st Support: 1.1194
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: German CPI + Spanish CPI

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: U.S. GDP

GBP/USD

GBP/USD boosted up by Carney statement regarding removal of monetary as spare capacity in the economy erodes and by recent dovish Fed’s messages. The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

The day after Governor Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union, Pound attempted a significant recovery as Bank of England (BoE) chief economist Haldane revealed that he is likely to vote for rate hike “relatively soon”.

UK CPI (Inflation) data again higher than expected while UK Retail Sales worse than expected. Last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production were worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release.

Breakout of Resistance around 1.283 area happened and, as we wrote previously, this pushed the price up to 1.2978 (important Resistance area). Now, only a definitive Breakout of 1.298 would take up to 1.3185. On the other hand, failing to break 1.298 will create the setup for a Bearish wave down to 1.28 Support.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: U.S. GDP

AUD/USD

Australia’s House Market (New Home Sales) improved.

Yellen said that, even though jobless rate low, inflation has continued to run below Fed’s objectives
Fed is looking carefully at inflation expectations but they are not getting a consistent story on inflation.
Nigeria and Libya, which were exempt from the OPEC-led cuts, have also increased production and last increase in U.S. output has undermined the impact on inventories of output cuts by major producers.

So large part of the gains in the Australian dollar is still driven by the Country’s job market report (seen as stronger-than-expected). Australia GDP also better than expected but the performance came one day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautioned that growth “is expected to have slowed in the March quarter”,

In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

We are in the scenario of a breakout of 0.764 and this will lead up to our first new Resistance in area 0.768.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7480
2nd Support: 0.7408

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: U.S. GDP

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Eyes on today German Manufacturing PMI and U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Germany Unemployment Change better than Expected and Eurozone confirmed to be keeping a fast pace. Germany Consumer Price Index again above expectations (for the second time in a row).
On the other hand, U.S. GDP data better than expected.

Draghi said the ECB sees growth that is above trend and well distributed across the euro area, but reiterated that “a considerable degree” of stimulus is still needed in the euro zone (stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon), and that the ECB must be “prudent” in how it unwinds it. Bloomberg reported that ECB sources said market misinterpreted Draghi’s remarks: the speech “was intended to strike a balance between recognizing the currency bloc’s economic strength and warning that monetary support is still needed” Bloomberg said.

EUR/USD boosted up also by dovish Fed’s hints. Yellen said that, even though jobless rate low, inflation has continued to run below Fed’s objectives. Fed is looking carefully at inflation expectations but they are not getting a consistent story on inflation.

Italian municipal elections marks a change with right-wing (no-euro) parties placing more mayors than expected.

1.1390 is the current important Resistance. Only a confirmed Break out would push price up to 1.148. On the other hand, failing to break 1.139 will converge down to 1.1194 Support area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1390
2nd Resistance: 1.1480
1st Support: 1.1194
2nd Support: 1.1100

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

Eyes on today release: German Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

Eyes on today release: ISM Manufacturing PMI

GBP/USD

Eyes on today UK Manufacturing PMI. Also focus on BOE Governor Carney’s speeches: his comments will be monitored closely today and Friday for any new insight on policy and the timing of when the BOE will next raise interest rates.

UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account deficit. On the other hand, U.S. GDP data better than expected.

GBP/USD boosted up by Carney statement regarding removal of monetary as spare capacity in the economy erodes and by recent dovish Fed’s messages. The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

The day after Governor Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union, Pound attempted a significant recovery as Bank of England (BoE) chief economist Haldane revealed that he is likely to vote for rate hike “relatively soon”.

UK CPI (Inflation) data again higher than expected while UK Retail Sales worse than expected. Last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production were worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release.

Breakout of Resistance around 1.283 area happened and, as we wrote previously, this pushed the price up to 1.2978 (important Resistance area). Now, only a definitive Breakout of 1.298 would take up to 1.3185. On the other hand, failing to break 1.298 (as we project, being clearly in overbought) will create the setup for a Bearish wave down to 1.28 Support.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

Eyes on today release: UK Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

Eyes on today release: ISM Manufacturing PMI

AUD/USD

Eyes on today Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement.
U.S. GDP data better than expected.

The Australian dollar hit a three-month high after House Market (New Home Sales) improved and Chinese factory activity exceeded market expectations. It took also advantage from firmness in oil prices. Investors will be keeping close watch on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy statement for any shift in language from its neutral stance. The RBA is widely expected to hold interest rates at a record low of 1.50 percent next week.
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

We expect a downside correction against important Resistance 0.768.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7570
2nd Support: 0.7480

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

Eyes on today release: ISM Manufacturing PMI

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Germany Manufacturing PMI confirmed above expectations.
On the other hand, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at the highest since January 2015.

Germany Unemployment Change better than Expected and Eurozone confirmed to be keeping a fast pace. Germany Consumer Price Index again above expectations (for the second time in a row).
On the other hand, U.S. GDP data better than expected.

Draghi said the ECB sees growth that is above trend and well distributed across the euro area, but reiterated that “a considerable degree” of stimulus is still needed in the euro zone (stronger growth outlook but a weaker inflation picture across the projection horizon), and that the ECB must be “prudent” in how it unwinds it. Bloomberg reported that ECB sources said market misinterpreted Draghi’s remarks: the speech “was intended to strike a balance between recognizing the currency bloc’s economic strength and warning that monetary support is still needed” Bloomberg said.

EUR/USD boosted up also by dovish Fed’s hints. Yellen said that, even though jobless rate low, inflation has continued to run below Fed’s objectives. Fed is looking carefully at inflation expectations but they are not getting a consistent story on inflation.

Italian municipal elections marks a change with right-wing (no-euro) parties placing more mayors than expected.

Our 1.1390 area worked effectively as Resistance and, as we wrote previously, will converge down to 1.1194 Support area (but eyes on 1.129 area, first Support).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.1390
2nd Resistance: 1.1480
1st Support: 1.1291
2nd Support: 1.1194

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

GBP/USD

UK Manufacturing PMI worse than expected. Also last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release. Same for UK Retail Sales. The only recent data on upbeat was UK CPI (Inflation).

Eyes on today UK Construction PMI.

GBP/USD boosted up by Carney statement regarding removal of monetary as spare capacity in the economy erodes and by recent dovish Fed’s messages. The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, failing to break 1.298 (as we projected, being clearly in overbought) will create the setup for a Bearish wave down to 1.28 Support.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Construction PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

AUD/USD

Australia reported retail sales for May with a gain of 0.6% month-on-month, beating the expected 0.2% rise but AUD fell after the latest RBA review of interest rates held steady at a record low.

The Australian dollar hit a three-month high after House Market (New Home Sales) improved and Chinese factory activity exceeded market expectations. It took also advantage from firmness in oil prices.
In the previous meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected but reporting that the current account widened to a deficit of A$3.1 billion, compared with a surplus of A$100 million seen for the first quarter.

We expected a downside correction against important Resistance 0.768. Now first stop is our relevant Support in area 0.757.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7570
2nd Support: 0.7480

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Eyes on today ADP Nonfarm Employment Change.

French and German Services PMI confirm better than forecasts, Eurozone Retail Sales also better than expected.

On the other hand, U.S. Federal Reserve members said that the recent slowdown in inflation didn’t deter the Federal Reserve from its stance of raising rates gradually, as most members expect that inflation will rise to central bank’s target of 2% in 2019.

Germany Manufacturing PMI confirmed above expectations. Germany Unemployment Change better than Expected and Eurozone confirmed to be keeping a fast pace. Germany Consumer Price Index again above expectations (for the second time in a row).

On the other hand, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at the highest since January 2015 and last U.S. GDP data better than expected.

Draghi said that the ECB must be “prudent” in how it unwinds the stimulus. Bloomberg reported that ECB sources said market misinterpreted Draghi’s remarks: the speech “was intended to strike a balance between recognizing the currency bloc’s economic strength and warning that monetary support is still needed” Bloomberg said.

Italian municipal elections marks a change with right-wing (no-euro) parties placing more mayors than expected.

Our 1.1390 area worked effectively as Resistance and, as we wrote previously, will converge down to 1.1194 Support area (but eyes on 1.129 area, first Support about to be approached).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.1390
2nd Resistance: 1.1480
1st Support: 1.1291
2nd Support: 1.1194

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

Eyes on today release: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

GBP/USD

U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019.

Last UK Services PMI, UK Construction PMI and UK Manufacturing PMI readings were worse than expected. Also last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release. Same for UK Retail Sales. The only recent data on upbeat was UK CPI (Inflation).

GBP/USD boosted up by Carney statement regarding removal of monetary as spare capacity in the economy erodes and by recent dovish Fed’s messages. The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

As we wrote in the previous commentaries, failing to break 1.298 (as we projected, being clearly in overbought) will create the setup for a Bearish wave down to 1.28 Support.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

Eyes on today release: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

AUD/USD

U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019.

Last Australia Trade Balance reading on the upbeat. Australia also reported Retail Sales for May with a gain of 0.6% month-on-month, beating the expected 0.2% rise but AUD fell after the latest RBA review of interest rates held steady at a record low.

The Australian dollar hit a three-month high after House Market (New Home Sales) improved and Chinese factory activity exceeded market expectations. It took also advantage from firmness in oil prices.

We expected a downside correction against important Resistance 0.768. Now first stop is our relevant Support in area 0.757.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7570
2nd Support: 0.7480

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

Eyes on today release: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change disappointed with the worst figure since the end of 2016. Eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.

French and German Services PMI confirm better than forecasts, Eurozone Retail Sales also better than expected.

On the other hand, U.S. Federal Reserve members said that the recent slowdown in inflation didn’t deter the Federal Reserve from its stance of raising rates gradually, as most members expect that inflation will rise to central bank’s target of 2% in 2019.

Germany Manufacturing PMI confirmed above expectations. Germany Unemployment Change better than Expected and Eurozone confirmed to be keeping a fast pace. Germany Consumer Price Index again above expectations (for the second time in a row).

On the other hand, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at the highest since January 2015 and last U.S. GDP data better than expected.

Draghi said that the ECB must be “prudent” in how it unwinds the stimulus. Bloomberg reported that ECB sources said market misinterpreted Draghi’s remarks: the speech “was intended to strike a balance between recognizing the currency bloc’s economic strength and warning that monetary support is still needed” Bloomberg said.

Italian municipal elections marks a change with right-wing (no-euro) parties placing more mayors than expected.

Our 1.1390 area again under test as it worked effectively as Resistance past week. We still think price will end with converging down to 1.1194 Support area (whereas 1.129 area remains the first Support to be approached).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.1390
2nd Resistance: 1.1480
1st Support: 1.1291
2nd Support: 1.1194

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change

GBP/USD

Eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change, after that U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change disappointed with the worst figure since the end of 2016.

U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019.

Last UK Services PMI, UK Construction PMI and UK Manufacturing PMI readings were worse than expected. Also last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release. Same for UK Retail Sales. The only recent data on upbeat was UK CPI (Inflation).

GBP/USD boosted up by Carney statement regarding removal of monetary as spare capacity in the economy erodes and by recent dovish Fed’s messages. The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

Our 1.298 level again under test. We are still clearly in overbought, price will create the setup for a Bearish wave down to 1.28 Support.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change

AUD/USD

Eyes on today U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change, after that U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change disappointed with the worst figure since the end of 2016.

U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019.

Last Australia Trade Balance reading on the upbeat. Australia also reported Retail Sales for May with a gain of 0.6% month-on-month, beating the expected 0.2% rise but AUD fell after the latest RBA review of interest rates held steady at a record low.

The Australian dollar hit a three-month high after House Market (New Home Sales) improved and Chinese factory activity exceeded market expectations. It took also advantage from firmness in oil prices.

We expected a downside correction after important Resistance 0.768 with first stop on our relevant Support in area 0.757. That happened, now only consolidation between 0.76 and 0.75 around that 0.757 Support.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7570
2nd Support: 0.7480

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected while Unemployment Change increases.

Federal Reserve members said that the recent slowdown in inflation didn’t deter the Federal Reserve from its stance of raising rates gradually, as most members expect that inflation will rise to central bank’s target of 2% in 2019.

Germany Manufacturing PMI confirmed above expectations. Germany Unemployment Change better than Expected and Eurozone confirmed to be keeping a fast pace. Germany Consumer Price Index again above expectations (for the second time in a row).

On the other hand, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at the highest since January 2015 and last U.S. GDP data better than expected.

Draghi said that the ECB must be “prudent” in how it unwinds the stimulus. Bloomberg reported that ECB sources said market misinterpreted Draghi’s remarks: the speech “was intended to strike a balance between recognizing the currency bloc’s economic strength and warning that monetary support is still needed” Bloomberg said.

Italian municipal elections marks a change with right-wing (no-euro) parties placing more mayors than expected.

Our 1.1390 area is again under test. Breakout looks failing again, so we still think price will end with converging down to 1.1194 Support area (whereas 1.129 area remains the first Support to be approached).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.1390
2nd Resistance: 1.1480
1st Support: 1.1291
2nd Support: 1.1194

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

UK Manufacturing Production change enters the negative area again.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected while Unemployment Change increases after U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change that disappointed with the worst figure since the end of 2016.

U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019.

Last UK Services PMI, UK Construction PMI and UK Manufacturing PMI readings were worse than expected. Also last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release. Same for UK Retail Sales. The only recent data on upbeat was UK CPI (Inflation).

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

Price started to drop as we expected, getting closer to 1.28 important Support and then regaining partially. Now we expected a confirmation downmove.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

AUD/USD

Eyes on today Home Loans and NAB Business Confidence.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected while Unemployment Change increases after U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change that disappointed with the worst figure since the end of 2016.

U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019.

Last Australia Trade Balance reading on the upbeat. Australia also reported Retail Sales for May with a gain of 0.6% month-on-month, beating the expected 0.2% rise but AUD fell after the latest RBA review of interest rates held steady at a record low.

Data showed U.S. Oil production rose last week just as OPEC exports hit a 2017 high, casting doubt over efforts by producers to curb oversupply. The Australian dollar hit a three-month high after House Market (New Home Sales) improved and Chinese factory activity exceeded market expectations but it is also sensitive to oil prices.

We expected a downside correction after important Resistance 0.768 with first stop on our relevant Support in area 0.757. That happened, now only consolidation between 0.76 and 0.75 around that 0.757 Support.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7570
2nd Support: 0.7480

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

This week Yellen testifies and US. Inflation data will be released (along with sales data) so investors will be able to place more precise guesses on when Fed will rise Interest Rates again this year. Federal Reserve members said that the recent slowdown in inflation didn’t deter the Federal Reserve from its stance of raising rates gradually, as most members expect that inflation will rise to central bank’s target of 2% in 2019.

Germany Manufacturing PMI confirmed above expectations. Germany Unemployment Change better than Expected and Eurozone confirmed to be keeping a fast pace. Germany Consumer Price Index again above expectations (for the second time in a row).

On the other hand, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at the highest since January 2015 and last U.S. GDP data better than expected.

Draghi said that the ECB must be “prudent” in how it unwinds the stimulus. Bloomberg reported that ECB sources said market misinterpreted Draghi’s remarks: the speech “was intended to strike a balance between recognizing the currency bloc’s economic strength and warning that monetary support is still needed” Bloomberg said.

Italian municipal elections marks a change with right-wing (no-euro) parties placing more mayors than expected.

Our 1.1390 area is again under test. Breakout looks failing again, so we will probably see a test down to 1.129 area, first, and eventually a continuation to 1.1194 Support area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.1390
2nd Resistance: 1.1480
1st Support: 1.1291
2nd Support: 1.1194

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Waiting for tomorrow news, regarding Job Market. Current Sentiment is bearish as UK Manufacturing Production change enters the negative area again and Last UK Services PMI, UK Construction PMI and UK Manufacturing PMI readings were worse than expected. Also last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release. Same for UK Retail Sales. The only recent data on upbeat was UK CPI (Inflation).

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

Price started to drop as we expected, getting closer to 1.28 important Support and then regaining partially. Now we expect a confirmation downmove with 1.283 fist stop and 1.2705 second.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

AUD/USD

Eyes on today Westpac Consumer Sentiment reading.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected while Unemployment Change increases after U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change that disappointed with the worst figure since the end of 2016. U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019.

Last Australia Trade Balance reading on the upbeat. Australia also reported Retail Sales for May with a gain of 0.6% month-on-month, beating the expected 0.2% rise but AUD fell after the latest RBA review of interest rates held steady at a record low.

Data showed U.S. Oil production rose last week just as OPEC exports hit a 2017 high, casting doubt over efforts by producers to curb oversupply. The Australian dollar hit a three-month high after House Market (New Home Sales) improved and Chinese factory activity exceeded market expectations but it is also sensitive to oil prices.

We expected a downside correction after important Resistance 0.768 with first stop on our relevant Support in area 0.757. That happened, now only consolidation between 0.76 and 0.75 around that 0.757 Support.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7680
2nd Resistance: 0.7735
1st Support: 0.7570
2nd Support: 0.7480

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Westpac Consumer Sentiment

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Eyes on today U.S. Core Retail and U.S. CPI.

Yellen’s prepared remarks to congress pointed to a “gradual” tightening in interest rates, revealing that the Federal Reserve remained wary of continually raising rates amid a slowdown in inflation, mentioning there weren’t any signs the current economic expansion will come to end soon.

PPI (Inflation data) better than expected while U.S. budget deficit broadened to $90 billion for June versus a year-earlier surplus of $6 billion (exceeding analysts’ estimates of a $35 billion deficit).
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at the highest since January 2015 and last U.S. GDP data better than expected.

On the other hand, Germany Manufacturing PMI confirmed above expectations. Germany Unemployment Change better than Expected and Eurozone confirmed to be keeping a fast pace. Germany Consumer Price Index again above expectations (for the second time in a row).

Draghi said that the ECB must be “prudent” in how it unwinds the stimulus. Bloomberg reported that ECB sources said market misinterpreted Draghi’s remarks: the speech “was intended to strike a balance between recognizing the currency bloc’s economic strength and warning that monetary support is still needed” Bloomberg said.

Resistance in 1.148 area worked. And as we previously wrote, price ends with converging down to 1.139 Support area first. And now 1.129 area is likely to be approached.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1480
2nd Resistance: 1.1500
1st Support: 1.1390
2nd Support: 1.1291

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI

GBP/USD

Eyes on today U.S. Core Retail and U.S. CPI.

UK Job Market data came better than Expected. UK Manufacturing Production change re-entered the negative area.
Last UK Services PMI, UK Construction PMI and UK Manufacturing PMI readings were worse than expected. Also last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release. Same for UK Retail Sales. The only recent data on upbeat was UK CPI (Inflation).

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

Price started to drop as we expected, getting closer to 1.28 important Support and then regaining partially. Now we expect a confirming down-move with 1.283 fist stop (already hit through past sessions) and 1.2705 second landing.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3185
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI

AUD/USD

Eyes on today U.S. Core Retail and U.S. CPI.

Westpac Consumer Sentiment and last Australia Trade Balance reading on the upbeat. Australia also reported Retail Sales for May with a gain of 0.6% month-on-month, beating the expected 0.2% rise but AUD fell after the latest RBA review of interest rates held steady at a record low.

AUD supported this by stronger iron and oil prices and by Crude prices, settled higher after crude and gasoline stockpiles fell more than expected last week.

Heavily overbought setup, over 0.77 everything is overbought. 0.757 first landing area of next-to-come correction downside.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7735
2nd Resistance: 0.7828
1st Support: 0.7570
2nd Support: 0.7480

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data released last week signalled that the Federal Reserve may struggle to justify an increase rate increase later this year and U.S. budget deficit broadened to $90 billion for June versus a year-earlier surplus of $6 billion (exceeding analysts’ estimates of a $35 billion deficit).
Let’s not forget that U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI was at the highest since January 2015 and last U.S. GDP data was also better than expected.

On the other hand, Germany Manufacturing PMI confirmed above expectations. Germany Unemployment Change better than Expected and Eurozone confirmed to be keeping a fast pace. Germany Consumer Price Index again above expectations (for the second time in a row).

Draghi said that the ECB must be “prudent” in how it unwinds the stimulus. Bloomberg reported that ECB sources said market misinterpreted Draghi’s remarks: the speech “was intended to strike a balance between recognizing the currency bloc’s economic strength and warning that monetary support is still needed” Bloomberg said.

Resistance in 1.148 area will work again as USD is clearly oversold. And as we previously wrote, price will likely to end with converging down to 1.139 Support area first. If that will occur, 1.129 area is likely to be approached next.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1480 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.1524
1st Support: 1.1390
2nd Support: 1.1291

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: German ZEW Economic Sentiment

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

UK Job Market data came better than Expected. UK Manufacturing Production change re-entered the negative area.
Last UK Services PMI, UK Construction PMI and UK Manufacturing PMI readings were worse than expected. Also last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release. Same for UK Retail Sales. The only recent data on upbeat was UK CPI (Inflation).

Eyes on today UK CPI (Inflation data).

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan stated that, while the U.S. is near full employment, inflation has been muted and that he would like to see more progress before raising U.S. interest rates further.

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

Now we expect a consolidation back around 1.2978, then a down-move with 1.283 fist stop (already hit on the 12th of July).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3099
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2978
2nd Support: 1.2830

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: CPI

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

AUD/USD

Attention focusing on RBA Meeting Minutes next to come.

Both U.S. Core Retail and U.S. CPI worse than Expected.

Westpac Consumer Sentiment and last Australia Trade Balance reading on the upbeat. Australia also reported Retail Sales for May with a gain of 0.6% month-on-month, beating the expected 0.2% rise but AUD fell after the latest RBA review of interest rates held steady at a record low.

AUD supported this by stronger iron and oil prices and by Crude prices, settled higher after crude and gasoline stockpiles fell more than expected last week.

Overbought with speculators on bull side aligned to Oil price but with no fundamental reasons for supporting AUD/USD that high. 0.7735 is still now our first Support and first landing area of next-to-come correction downside.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7828 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 0.7916
1st Support: 0.7735
2nd Support: 0.7680

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Doubtful passage of a U.S. healthcare bill is making a worse an already uncertain setup for USD, where weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data released last week signalled that the Federal Reserve may struggle to justify an increase rate increase later this year. U.S. budget deficit broadened to $90 billion for June versus a year-earlier surplus of $6 billion (exceeding analysts’ estimates of a $35 billion deficit).
Let’s not forget that U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI was at the highest since January 2015 and last U.S. GDP data was also better than expected.

On the other hand, expect for latest Zew Sentiment (which was below the expectations), Germany Manufacturing PMI, Germany Unemployment Change and Germany Consumer Price Index confirmed above expectations.

Draghi said that the ECB must be “prudent” in how it unwinds the stimulus. Bloomberg reported that ECB sources said market misinterpreted Draghi’s remarks: the speech “was intended to strike a balance between recognizing the currency bloc’s economic strength and warning that monetary support is still needed” Bloomberg said.

Resistance in 1.152 area will work again as USD is clearly oversold. Price will likely to end with converging down to 1.148 Support area first. If that will occur, 1.139 area is likely to be approached next.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1524 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.1590
1st Support: 1.1480
2nd Support: 1.1390

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

UK CPI (Inflation data) clearly disappointed the expectations. And this adds to UK Manufacturing Production change, which re-entered the negative area, and to the last UK Services PMI, UK Construction PMI and UK Manufacturing PMI, below expectations too. Also last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release. Same for UK Retail Sales. The only recent data on upbeat was UK Job Market data.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan stated that, while the U.S. is near full employment, inflation has been muted and that he would like to see more progress before raising U.S. interest rates further.

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

As we wrote previously, now we expect a consolidation back around 1.2978, then a down-move with 1.283 fist stop (already hit on the 12th of July).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3099
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2978
2nd Support: 1.2830

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

AUD/USD

Eyes on today Australia Employment Change.

According to the minutes from the last central bank meeting, the RBA believes that the strong labor market removes some of the downside risks in wages and the quarterly economic growth most likely increased in Q2. They made no mention of a rate hike, though.

The dollar fell amid growing investor doubt over President Donald Trump’s ability to deliver on his economic agenda, after a healthcare bill aimed at replacing Obamacare failed to garner enough votes.

Westpac Consumer Sentiment and last Australia Trade Balance reading on the upbeat. Australia also reported Retail Sales for May with a gain of 0.6% month-on-month, beating the expected 0.2% rise but AUD fell after the latest RBA review of interest rates held steady at a record low.

Overbought with overspeculations because USD is falling, so no fundamental reasons for supporting AUD that high. 0.7735 is still now our first Support and first landing area of next-to-come correction downside.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7828 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 0.7916
1st Support: 0.7735
2nd Support: 0.7680

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change
…

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Eyes on today ECB Interest Rate Decision and Conference and on U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

Doubtful passage of a U.S. healthcare bill is making a worse an already uncertain setup for USD, where weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data released last week signalled that the Federal Reserve may struggle to justify an increase rate increase later this year. U.S. budget deficit broadened to $90 billion for June versus a year-earlier surplus of $6 billion (exceeding analysts’ estimates of a $35 billion deficit).
Let’s not forget that U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI was at the highest since January 2015 and last U.S. GDP data was also better than expected.

On the other hand, expect for latest Zew Sentiment (which was below the expectations), Germany Manufacturing PMI, Germany Unemployment Change and Germany Consumer Price Index confirmed above expectations.

Draghi said that the ECB must be “prudent” in how it unwinds the stimulus. Bloomberg reported that ECB sources said market misinterpreted Draghi’s remarks: the speech “was intended to strike a balance between recognizing the currency bloc’s economic strength and warning that monetary support is still needed” Bloomberg said.

Resistance in 1.152 area will work again as USD is clearly oversold. Price will likely to end with converging down to 1.148 Support area first. If that will occur, 1.139 area is likely to be approached next.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1524 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.1590
1st Support: 1.1480
2nd Support: 1.1390

GBP/USD

Eyes on today UK Retail Sales.

UK CPI (Inflation data) clearly disappointed the expectations. And this adds to UK Manufacturing Production change, which re-entered the negative area, and to the last UK Services PMI, UK Construction PMI and UK Manufacturing PMI, below expectations too. Also last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release. Same for UK Retail Sales. The only recent data on upbeat was UK Job Market data.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan stated that, while the U.S. is near full employment, inflation has been muted and that he would like to see more progress before raising U.S. interest rates further.

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

As we wrote previously, now we expect a consolidation back around 1.2978, then a down-move with 1.283 fist stop (already hit on the 12th of July).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3099
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2978
2nd Support: 1.2830

AUD/USD

Australia Employment Change worse than expected, while Business Confidence and Unemployment Rate somehow pared expectations.

According to the minutes from the last central bank meeting, the RBA believes that the strong labor market removes some of the downside risks in wages and the quarterly economic growth most likely increased in Q2. They made no mention of a rate hike, though.

The dollar fell amid growing investor doubt over President Donald Trump’s ability to deliver on his economic agenda, after a healthcare bill aimed at replacing Obamacare failed to garner enough votes.

Westpac Consumer Sentiment and last Australia Trade Balance reading on the upbeat. Australia also reported Retail Sales for May with a gain of 0.6% month-on-month, beating the expected 0.2% rise but AUD fell after the latest RBA review of interest rates held steady at a record low.

Overbought with overspeculations because USD is falling, so no fundamental reasons for supporting AUD that high. 0.7735 is still now our first Support and first landing area of next-to-come correction downside.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7828
2nd Resistance: 0.7916 (fake breakout)
1st Support: 0.7735
2nd Support: 0.7680

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

ECB remarks appeared to signal a shift towards tapering monetary stimulus, but President Draghi reiterated that any changes to the stimulus program will be “gradual” and “cautious.”

U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at the lowest since December 2016 but U.S. initial weekly jobless claims fell to the lowest level in nearly five months.

Doubtful passage of a U.S. healthcare bill is making a worse an already uncertain setup for USD, where weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data released last week signalled that the Federal Reserve may struggle to justify an increase rate increase later this year. U.S. budget deficit broadened to $90 billion for June versus a year-earlier surplus of $6 billion (exceeding analysts’ estimates of a $35 billion deficit).
Let’s not forget that U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI was at the highest since January 2015 and last U.S. GDP data was also better than expected.

On the other hand, latest Zew Sentiment (which was below the expectations), Germany Manufacturing PMI, Germany Unemployment Change and Germany Consumer Price Index confirmed above expectations.

Resistance in 1.159 area will have to work again as USD is clearly oversold. 1.1524 will have to be retested. Price will likely to end with converging down to 1.148 Support area first. If that will occur, 1.139 area is likely to be approached next.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1590 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.1655
1st Support: 1.1524
2nd Support: 1.1480

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

UK Retail Sales better than expected.

UK CPI (Inflation data) clearly disappointed the expectations. And this added to UK Manufacturing Production change, which re-entered the negative area, and to the last UK Services PMI, UK Construction PMI and UK Manufacturing PMI, below expectations too. Also last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release. The only recent data on upbeat was UK Job Market data.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan stated that, while the U.S. is near full employment, inflation has been muted and that he would like to see more progress before raising U.S. interest rates further. Anyways, we think that at the moment USD is heavily oversold.

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

As we wrote previously, now we expect a consolidation back around 1.2978, then a down-move with 1.283 fist stop (already hit on the 12th of July).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.3099
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2978
2nd Support: 1.2830

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Employment Change worse than expected, while Business Confidence and Unemployment Rate somehow pared expectations.

According to the minutes from the last central bank meeting, the RBA believes that the strong labor market removes some of the downside risks in wages and the quarterly economic growth most likely increased in Q2. They made no mention of a rate hike, though.

The dollar fell amid growing investor doubt over President Donald Trump’s ability to deliver on his economic agenda, after a healthcare bill aimed at replacing Obamacare failed to garner enough votes.

Westpac Consumer Sentiment and last Australia Trade Balance reading on the upbeat. Australia also reported Retail Sales for May with a gain of 0.6% month-on-month, beating the expected 0.2% rise but AUD fell after the latest RBA review of interest rates held steady at a record low.

Overbought with overspeculations because USD is falling, so no fundamental reasons for supporting AUD that high. 0.783 area will have to be retested. And 0.7735 is still now our main Support and landing area of next-to-come correction downside.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7828
2nd Resistance: 0.7916
1st Support: 0.7735
2nd Support: 0.7680

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Eyes on today German Manufacturing PMI.

ECB remarks appeared to signal a shift towards tapering monetary stimulus, but President Draghi reiterated that any changes to the stimulus program will be “gradual” and “cautious.”

Reports say that special counsel Robert Mueller is planning to expand investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. This recent development kept continuous downward pressure on the dollar as market players fretted over how the investigations would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies.

U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at the lowest since December 2016 but U.S. initial weekly jobless claims fell to the lowest level in nearly five months.
Let’s not forget that U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI was at the highest since January 2015 and last U.S. GDP data was also better than expected.

On the other hand, latest Zew Sentiment (which was below the expectations), Germany Manufacturing PMI, Germany Unemployment Change and Germany Consumer Price Index confirmed above expectations.

Resistance in 1.159 area will have to work again as USD is clearly oversold. 1.1524 will have to be retested. Price will likely to end with converging down to 1.148 Support area first. If that will occur, 1.139 area is likely to be approached next.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1590 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.1655
1st Support: 1.1524
2nd Support: 1.1480

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: German Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

GBP/USD

Petcho, global macro portfolio managers said second-quarter UK economic growth would likely be weak at slightly below 1 percent on an annualized basis. Expected total 2017 growth to be a modest 1.5 percent, making it unlikely the Bank of England (BoE) would proceed with raising rates. They cited weak wage growth and depreciating home prices as two sources of concern.

UK Retail Sales better than expected but last UK CPI (Inflation data) clearly disappointed the expectations. And this added to UK Manufacturing Production change, which re-entered the negative area, and to the last UK Services PMI, UK Construction PMI and UK Manufacturing PMI, below expectations too. Also last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release. The only recent data on upbeat was UK Job Market data.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan stated that, while the U.S. is near full employment, inflation has been muted and that he would like to see more progress before raising U.S. interest rates further. Anyways, we think that at the moment USD is heavily oversold.

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

As we wrote previously, now we expect a consolidation back around 1.2978, then a down-move with 1.283 fist stop (already hit on the 12th of July).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.3099
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2978
2nd Support: 1.2830

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

Australia Employment Change worse than expected, while Business Confidence and Unemployment Rate somehow pared expectations.

According to the minutes from the last central bank meeting, the RBA believes that the strong labor market removes some of the downside risks in wages and the quarterly economic growth most likely increased in Q2. They made no mention of a rate hike, though.

The dollar fell amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

Westpac Consumer Sentiment and last Australia Trade Balance reading on the upbeat. Australia also reported Retail Sales for May with a gain of 0.6% month-on-month, beating the expected 0.2% rise but the latest RBA review of interest rates held steady at a record low.

Overbought with overspeculations because USD is falling, so no fundamental reasons for supporting AUD that high. 0.783 area will have to be retested. And 0.7735 is still now our main Support and landing area of next-to-come correction downside.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7828
2nd Resistance: 0.7916
1st Support: 0.7735
2nd Support: 0.7680

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Eyes on today U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence.

German Manufacturing PMI and Eurozone both Manufacturing and Services PMI were worse than Expected.

ECB remarks appeared to signal a shift towards tapering monetary stimulus, but President Draghi reiterated that any changes to the stimulus program will be “gradual” and “cautious.”

The dollar remains under pressure from political considerations and lower market odds of a further U.S. rate hike this year. The Trump administration remains under the cloud of a probe into alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. 2016 presidential election.

On the other hand, latest Zew Sentiment (which was below the expectations), Germany Manufacturing PMI, Germany Unemployment Change and Germany Consumer Price Index confirmed above expectations.

It is time for an important correction. USD has been very oversold recently. Resistance in 1.159 area will have to work again and 1.1524 will have to be retested. Price will likely to end with converging down to 1.148 Support area first. If that will occur, 1.139 area is likely to be approached next.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1590 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.1655
1st Support: 1.1524
2nd Support: 1.1480

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Services PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Conference Board Consumer Confidence.

GBP/USD

Petcho, global macro portfolio managers said second-quarter UK economic growth would likely be weak at slightly below 1 percent on an annualized basis. Expected total 2017 growth to be a modest 1.5 percent, making it unlikely the Bank of England (BoE) would proceed with raising rates. They cited weak wage growth and depreciating home prices as two sources of concern.

UK Retail Sales better than expected but last UK CPI (Inflation data) clearly disappointed the expectations. And this added to UK Manufacturing Production change, which re-entered the negative area, and to the last UK Services PMI, UK Construction PMI and UK Manufacturing PMI, below expectations too. Also last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release. The only recent data on upbeat was UK Job Market data.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan stated that, while the U.S. is near full employment, inflation has been muted and that he would like to see more progress before raising U.S. interest rates further. Anyways, we think that at the moment USD is heavily oversold.

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

As we wrote previously, now we expect a consolidation back around 1.2978, then a down-move with 1.283 fist stop (already hit on the 12th of July).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.3099
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2978
2nd Support: 1.2830

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Conference Board Consumer Confidence.

AUD/USD

Eyes on today Australia Inflation (CPI) data, RBA Governor Lowe Speech and U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence.

Australia Employment Change worse than expected, while Business Confidence and Unemployment Rate somehow pared expectations. Only Oil price is kind of supporting AUD bullish trend: the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers discussed extending their deal to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) beyond March 2018 if necessary.

According to the minutes from the last central bank meeting, the RBA believes that the strong labor market removes some of the downside risks in wages and the quarterly economic growth most likely increased in Q2. They made no mention of a rate hike, though.

On the other hand, the dollar fell amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

Overbought with overspeculations because USD is falling, so no fundamental reasons for supporting AUD that high. 0.783 area will have to be retested. And 0.7735 is still now our main Support and landing area of next-to-come correction downside.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7828
2nd Resistance: 0.7916
1st Support: 0.7735
2nd Support: 0.7680

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

Eyes on today release: CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: Conference Board Consumer Confidence.

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Eyes on today U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders.

The Federal Reserve statement noted that interest rates are likely to remain low for “some time”, highlighting that increases in its benchmark rate will depend on incoming economic data.

U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well.

German Manufacturing PMI and Eurozone both Manufacturing and Services PMI were worse than Expected.

ECB remarks appeared to signal a shift towards tapering monetary stimulus, but President Draghi reiterated that any changes to the stimulus program will be “gradual” and “cautious.”

The dollar remains under pressure from political considerations and lower market odds of a further U.S. rate hike this year. The Trump administration remains under the cloud of a probe into alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. 2016 presidential election.

On the other hand, latest Zew Sentiment (which was below the expectations), Germany Manufacturing PMI, Germany Unemployment Change and Germany Consumer Price Index confirmed above expectations.

Fundamentals look conspiring altogether against USD, including Trump administration delays. We still think that the fair value of EUR/USD is below 1.16. In case of another breakout (of the 1.1756 Resistance), then EUR/USD will project targets over 1.19.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1655 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.1756
1st Support: 1.1524
2nd Support: 1.1480

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Services PMI
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Core Durable Goods Orders

GBP/USD

The Federal Reserve statement also noted that interest rates are likely to remain low for “some time”, highlighting that increases in its benchmark rate will depend on incoming economic data.

UK GDP release (Preliminary) pared expectations. UK Retail Sales better than expected but last UK CPI (Inflation data) clearly disappointed the expectations. And this added to UK Manufacturing Production change, which re-entered the negative area, and to the last UK Services PMI, UK Construction PMI and UK Manufacturing PMI, below expectations too. Also last data regarding UK manufacturing and industrial production worse than expected along with UK GDP, Preliminary release. The only recent data on upbeat was UK Job Market data.

Petcho, global macro portfolio managers said second-quarter UK economic growth would likely be weak at slightly below 1 percent on an annualized basis. Expected total 2017 growth to be a modest 1.5 percent, making it unlikely the Bank of England (BoE) would proceed with raising rates. They cited weak wage growth and depreciating home prices as two sources of concern.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan stated that, while the U.S. is near full employment, inflation has been muted and that he would like to see more progress before raising U.S. interest rates further. Anyways, we think that at the moment USD is heavily oversold.

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

1.3203 is an ultimate Resistance and we think unlikely to see price overcome that obstacle in the short-term. We still expect a down-move with 1.283 fist stop (already hit on the 12th of July).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3099
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2978
2nd Support: 1.2830

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of July, UK GDP release (Preliminary)
As Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Core Durable Goods Orders

AUD/USD

The Federal Reserve statement noted that interest rates are likely to remain low for “some time”, highlighting that increases in its benchmark rate will depend on incoming economic data.

Australia consumer price index rose 0.2% in the second quarter, disappointing expectations. RBA Governor Lowe Speech was dovish.

U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well.

Australia Employment Change worse than expected, while Business Confidence and Unemployment Rate somehow pared expectations. Only Oil price is kind of supporting AUD bullish trend: the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers discussed extending their deal to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) beyond March 2018 if necessary.

According to the minutes from the last central bank meeting, the RBA believes that the strong labor market removes some of the downside risks in wages and the quarterly economic growth most likely increased in Q2. They made no mention of a rate hike, though.

On the other hand, the dollar fell amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

We confirm that 0.783 area will have to be retested. And 0.7735 is still now our main Support and landing area of next-to-come correction downside.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7916
2nd Resistance: 0.8034
1st Support: 0.7828
2nd Support: 0.7735

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Core Durable Goods Orders

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders worse than expected while Goods Trade Balance better than expected.

Eyes on German CPI and U.S. GDP (Preliminary release).

The Federal Reserve stated that interest rates are likely to remain low for “some time”, highlighting that increases in its benchmark rate will depend on incoming economic data.

U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well but the Trump administration remains under the cloud of a probe into alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. 2016 presidential election.
On the other hand, ECB remarks appeared to signal a shift towards tapering monetary stimulus, but President Draghi reiterated that any changes to the stimulus program will be “gradual” and “cautious.”

German Manufacturing PMI and Eurozone both Manufacturing and Services PMI were worse than Expected.

Fundamentals look conspiring altogether against USD, including Trump administration delays. We still think that the fair value of EUR/USD is below 1.16. In case of another breakout (of the 1.1756 Resistance), then EUR/USD will project targets over 1.19.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1655 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.1756
1st Support: 1.1524
2nd Support: 1.1480

EUR

Recent Facts:

9th of March, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Interest Rates Unchanged, ECB President Dovish (can be cut again in the future if necessary)

14th of March, German CPI + German ZEW Economic Sentiment
German CPI as Expected, German ZEW Worse than Expected

24th of March, German Manufacturing PMI
Significantly Better than Expected

30th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected

31st of March, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the sixth time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

3rd of April, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

11th of April, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

21st of April, French Manufacturing PMI + German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

23rd of April, French Elections (first round)
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister, emerged as the leader of the first round of voting and qualified for a May 7 runoff alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen

24th of April, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Services PMI
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: German CPI

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: U.S. GDP (Preliminary release).

GBP/USD

Eyes on U.S. GDP (Preliminary release).

There’s no doubt that U.K. growth is slowing with the details of the GDP report showing weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Growth is expected to ease further in the coming months as BREXIT gets underway
British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

1.3203 is an ultimate Resistance and we think unlikely to see price overcome that obstacle in the short-term. We still expect a down-move with 1.283 fist stop (already hit on the 12th of July).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3099
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2978
2nd Support: 1.2830

GBP

Recent Facts:

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program

15th of March, Job Market
Better than Expected

16th of March, Interest Rates Decision + BoE Meeting Minutes
A Bank of England policymaker unexpectedly voted to raise interest rates

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of July, UK GDP release (Preliminary)
As Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: U.S. GDP (Preliminary release).

AUD/USD

Eyes on U.S. GDP (Preliminary release).

Oil climbed surging to an eight-week high, after the EIA reported that US stockpiles fell to levels which have not been seen since the start of the year. Investors were hoping for an industry drawdown, and both the commodity and the AUD reflected that in their value.
Comments from Reserve Bank Governor Lowe confirm our view that the RBA is not thinking about raising interest rates. Lowe expects wages to remain subdued for some time, making it difficult to generate 2.5% CPI.
The U.S. Federal Reserve statement noted that interest rates are likely to remain low for “some time”, highlighting that increases in its benchmark rate will depend on incoming economic data.
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well.

On the other hand, the dollar fell amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

We confirm that 0.783 area will have to be retested. And 0.7735 is still now our main Support and landing area of next-to-come correction downside.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7916
2nd Resistance: 0.8034
1st Support: 0.7828
2nd Support: 0.7735

AUD

Recent Facts:

7th of February, RBA Interest Rates Decision + RBA Rate Statement
RBA held steady as expected at a record low 1.50%, while noting better economic conditions with China

8th of February, New Zealand Interest Rate Decision + RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Interest Rates Unchanged and RBNZ’s agenda contains no changes for 2017

16th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected

28th of February, New Home Sales, Current Account, Private Sector Credit

1st of March, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

16th of March, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

2nd of April, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

4th of April, RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest Rates Unchanged, as Expected. Dovish tone in Philip Dowe’s Speech

9th of April, Home Loans
Worse than Expected

13th of April, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

18th of April, RBA Meeting Minutes
Dovish

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

5th of May, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

11th of May, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Higher than Expected

12th of May, U.S. Retail Sales + Core CPI (Inflation data)
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected

23rd of May, Manufacturing PMI + New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

24th of May, FOMC Meeting Minutes
U.S. central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, highlighting a slowdown in economic activity (more proof that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary is needed for future rate hikes).

26th of May, Core Durable Good Orders + U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
Core Durable Goods Orders Worse than Expected, GDP (Preliminary) Better than Expected

31st of May, Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

1st of June, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of June, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: U.S. GDP (Preliminary release).

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Eyes on today Eurozone CPI (Preliminary).

The U.S. Commerce Department said Friday that gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the three months to June, which included a boost from consumer spending. That was more than double the 1.2% growth seen in the first quarter.
U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders worse than expected while Goods Trade Balance better than expected supporting U.S. GDP.

The Federal Reserve stated that interest rates are likely to remain low for “some time”, highlighting that increases in its benchmark rate will depend on incoming economic data.

U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well but the Trump administration remains under the cloud of a probe into alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. 2016 presidential election.
On the other hand, ECB remarks appeared to signal a shift towards tapering monetary stimulus, but President Draghi reiterated that any changes to the stimulus program will be “gradual” and “cautious.”

Fundamentals look conspiring altogether against USD, including Trump administration delays. We still think that the fair value of EUR/USD is below 1.16. In case of another breakout (of the 1.1756 Resistance), then EUR/USD will project targets over 1.19.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1655 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.1756
1st Support: 1.1524
2nd Support: 1.1480

EUR

Recent Facts:

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Services PMI
Worse than Expected

28th of July, German CPI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

GBP/USD

The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity tomorrow.

There’s no doubt that U.K. growth is slowing with the details of the GDP report showing weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Growth is expected to ease further in the coming months as BREXIT gets underway.

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

1.3203 is an ultimate Resistance and we think unlikely to see price overcome that obstacle in the short-term. 1.3099 Resistance should be reconfirmed, enough for pushing price down again. We still expect a down-move with 1.283 fist stop (already hit on the 12th of July).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3099
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.2978
2nd Support: 1.2830

GBP

Recent Facts:

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of July, UK GDP release (Preliminary)
As Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

AUD/USD

Eyes on today RBA Interest Rate Decision and RBA Rate Statement.

Oil climbed surging to an eight-week high, after the EIA reported that US stockpiles fell to levels which have not been seen since the start of the year. Investors were hoping for an industry drawdown, and both the commodity and the AUD reflected that in their value.
Comments from Reserve Bank Governor Lowe confirm our view that the RBA is not thinking about raising interest rates. Lowe expects wages to remain subdued for some time, making it difficult to generate 2.5% CPI.
The U.S. Federal Reserve statement noted that interest rates are likely to remain low for “some time”, highlighting that increases in its benchmark rate will depend on incoming economic data.
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well.

On the other hand, the dollar fell amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

We confirm that 0.783 area will have to be retested. And 0.7735 is still now our main Support and landing area of next-to-come correction downside.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7916
2nd Resistance: 0.8034
1st Support: 0.7828
2nd Support: 0.7735

AUD

Recent Facts:

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS