t85 short gj
t84 short aud/usd 0.7470
t85 short gbp/jpy 145.00
t86 short eur/usd 1.118
14 to go and I am done!
happy trading 
looking at the “longer term” and in hindsight there was not a reverse from long to short on the au
the au has formed a weekly morning star which I had noticed but “ignored” since I do not trade longer term,
however, the daily chart is showing still a strong up trend whilst the 4h chart has formed a nice morning start at the 618 and at the back of a broken down trend line…
so all in all we should be on the “long” side of the aud/usd…so we are…
13 to go…
as shown…
the eur/usd has been on an up trend since 3/jan/17 and most recently since 7/apr/17 which appear to be its “fifth wave”…
Resistance: it has hit a major resistance area with the actual resistance line being at the 1.13 (it hit just 30 pips below it)
Candle: It has formed a day engulfing candle and it is in the process of forming a “harami” on the weekly chart
RSI: it is showing signs of a divergence in both the daily and 4-hr chart
Trend Line Break: it has broken the inner up trend line in the 4h chart
*It is one of my trading signals to trade the break of a inner trend line…
So, I can jump in and trade this reversal signals, or I can wait for a nice confirmation at the end of the week if it forms the “weekly chart harami”, meaning we need the eur/usd to close at around 1.12 (not too many pips below it nor above its weekly opening of 1.1203 either…at the moment it is trading at the 1.1220 which is quite tempting knowing that if i am right, it will close at 1.12 by end of week…
uhmmm…this are the times I “jump in early” and a lot of time get burned, or this is the time I decide to be discipline and miss out!..it never seems to work…the problem is “lack of consistency” if I “always” follow the rules and are discipline and always wait for confirmation when I am in doubt then I will get the good with the bad in a more “balance” way resulting in consistent profits.
I am just looking forward to finishing the month so I can start fresh once again. I have finally finished my updated trading rules/guidelines and have identified 3-key groups of trades I want to be in.
I started with 5 groups (based not on my written rules of the challenge) but based on my “Actual trades” two of those “were not appropriate trading methods” as example, trading against the trend without a trend line break but purely on RSI divergences !..they are expensive! you lose more than you win!
happy trading
t88 now short in e/u after the projected crown reversal formed at the 786
we are moving the stop for the eu from 51 to 72 (above the day engulfing candle high) the eur just missed us by 0.4 pips! to stop us out…a pretty close call…I want to give it more room to breath so the risk is now 43 pips
happy trading
reversed our long au at b/e now short due to strong resistance and a engulfing candle formed at the 4hr chart at the day resistance levels as shown ema, fib 382/6187/786
my concern still remains with the morning star formed at the weekly…so lets see if we get to collect some pips out of this short…
happy trading
hard to update the thread while entering once trade but here it is…
10 more and I am done, I really look forward to not keep updating this forum, it is just too time consuming, I don’t know how you all guys do it!
I wish you all the best!
happy trading
now that the market has moved and formed positive signals I have updated the stops once more reducing some of the risks in the three open trades
happy trading
all of our trades are still on positive but you never know. at least the a/u has moved enough to move our stop to b/e…now waiting for the other two.
happy trading
now we have two out of our three trades at b/e
happy trading
now all our open trades 88, 89 and 90 are at b/e
although i am taking a big risk to get stopped out with the eur/usd, let’s see what happens
gj is at +170 pips
au is at +50 pips
eu is at a megre +10 pips despite of having moved about +30pips and I believe it might be wanting to have a go at the major resistance levels stopping us out in the way reason why I have shorten my position and taken some profits while leaving the remaining at b/e
happy trading
happy trading
we have short the usd/cad as shown
back on the horse at a better price shorting the aud/usd…slightly
Hi there, I am now at trade #92 and it is time for me to reflect on what has happened and what I have learnt from all of this 100-live trades challenge.
[B][U]Trades Selection:[/U][/B]
I started with a simple set of rules which I amended slightly in v2.0
In there I have 3-types of trades: direction of the inner trend line; if itl is broken then trade the “reverse crown right tip”; if itl is broken also can trade against the broken itl if there is a 4h/2h 786 candle of a large swing (this one is quite hard to explain in words). I however, have not just traded according to my rules, I traded outside all of this so really I can’t say I have been “Disciplined”.
The good news is that I just re-written my rules for trading and did it so “without reading my original rules”, I re-developed this from the experiences of the 100 live trades challenge “separately” and if you compared the two I have came up with the same conclusions with the exception of “one more group/type” of trades.
I find this quite encouraging, and I hope to adhere to these 4-groups 100%
[B][U]Trades Management:[/U][/B]
This have been perhaps the most challenging part of all my trading strategy. One thing is to know when to enter a trade, another is to know how to manage your profits, how to set up your profits, when to move the trade to b/e to avoid doing it too early, etc etc.
I know that the most profits I can make is when I follow the rules detailed in my strategy, "let the market swing, move your stops to the most recent hi/lo using the 2h or 4h chart, keep adding to your live trade(s) in a pyramid style until such time that the market breaks the itl and forms a contrarian signal, In other words, stay in the trade and keep pyramiding on it until the next trade in the opposite direction appears.
Well, this is much easier “said than done” and it is certainly quite easy to do when you are “back testing”…when you are in the live trades and see that you made 300 pips and then it is starting to retrace (in the case of the gj this retracements are sometimes 100 pips or more!) then you get out only to realised that it wasn’t retracing at all!
Anyway, what I have decided to do is use the fibonacci extensions as my profit targets for the G/J. It is a good compromise for now until I become far more experienced and disciplined in following the cancel/replace method.
[B][U]Examples:[/U][/B]
Finally, since I am about to finish this thread, I want to make my contribution to those of you who have been following my posts. I have gotten a few nice feedback in my inbox and I thank you all of you and hope that you continue to generate profits. As such, I will attached one example chart for each of the 4-type of trades based on my redefined trading strategy (which it is not that far off from the v1.0 i might say) 
my next few posts will also be a look at the upcoming week so you all can be on the look out for the next trades…
happy trading
Hi there, based on the:
Day Chart: the au is now on a down trend. It formed a nice engulfing candle at a major resistance convergences of fibonacci’s rations (38.2, 50, 61.8 and 78.6) this is why I had entered short.
4h-Chart: After breaking the inner trend line, it went back up to form a “double top” confirming the 4h shooting star as resistance (we traded this) and proceeded to break the “outer up trend line” to move further south.
I have re-entered my short trade, albeit a little too early, since I believe that the au has still a bit more to retrace before resuming it’s down trend.
So, I suggest to look out for a 618 or 786 + candle formation to enter short perhaps at the back of the broken outer trend line.
I will look at adding to my existing short trade at these levels
Hi there, here it is my forecast for the GBP/JPY.
Overall the g/j is in a down trend. The g/j likes to move around 1000 pips in each trend period and following a 1200-1300 up trend it formed a nice evening star on the daily chart at a past resistance (past doji) and ema356 levels. this happened on the 10/5 so now I am expecting it to be on a down trend for at least 2/3 of the latest up swing from 17/4 to 10/5 or around 140.40 (the 61.8% fibonnaci of this up swing). this will make the down trend of 800 pips, after that who knows…
so, I will be looking at re-entering short as soon as it has retrace to any of the fibonacci levels (38.2 @143.40 or so) and has formed a 2h or 4h bear candle signal.
happy trading
I made the mistake of reading some other experts forums and second guessing myself, therefore moving my stop to b/e “due to doubts” …the EUR/USD had formed a nice day chart engulfing candle just 35 pips below a major resistance level (1.3000) which had broken a 4h chart inner up trend line in the process.
I entered short, but as mentioned above, second guess myself after reading other people’s opinions (which I RARELY DO! ), and ended up being stopped out at b/e… :58:
I was trying to wait for the weekly signal…a nice bear Harami also at this levels.
Now I am looking to re-enter short as soon as the eu allows me too…
The good news is that the 2h and 1h charts are showing “bull” candle signals, hopefully allowing the eur/usd to rally up once more and giving me a close to my original short entry…
all in all, we are looking at entering short at a max risk pips of 50…our stop has to be at the top of the doji bear weekly candle…unless the h4 or h2 provides a cheaper stop loss price…
of course there is always the possibility of having a last go at the 1.300 price before moving down, but if so happens so beat it, I will be still looking for a short re-entry if that is the case…
happy trading
hi there, I am not sure I have been updating the trades on time so here they are just in case…
t91 short usd/cad
t92 short aud/usd
t93 long usd/jpy
happy trading
another entry and another exit trade
the usd/cad has now broken the inner down trend line in the 4h chart. this is a key signal for me to at least exit a trade or lighten a position. in this case means exit…
on another note, we have entered short on the aud/cad after breaking a bearish triangle pattern in the 1h
we are still looking to enter short in the eur/usd, gbp/jpy and aud/usd (add to the latter) if the market gives us a nice entry before continuing their bearish trend…
happy trading