Fx traders challenge - 100 live trades

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
247

Ok so what happened with the Bull Reverse Crown?
Firstly, the candle that we were expecting to be a doji, developed as doji however, I failed to mention that to be a “Harami” formation, we have two have (a) One unusually large candle (which we have, the bear candle) and (b) An opposite doji candle, in this case we needed a “bull doji” candle.

What it formed was a bear doji candle, but then the next 4h candle that was only really a 2h candle (since the market closed at 6:30 am Australia time) was a bull doji.

I am not 100% with this formation to be traded on this basis.

Having said that, there are other pro-reasons why I will trade this set up:
1. Day Chart: On the day chart we had a “hammer” candle (which I failed to notice earlier on). Hammers “usually get tested” and although it appears that we have a bear engulfing candle, I am choosing to ignore this and see this situation as “the hammer being tested” hence an opportunity to go long
2. The Crown Right Tip at 786: Once can trade the 786 right tip of a crown “without having a candle confirmation” this is of course a weaker signal a lower probability trade, but it is not as weak a trade as “counter trending”…at least in my experience.
3. The 30m Piercing Line & RSI Oversold: Another reason is the formation of a Piercing Line candlestick pattern on the 30 min chart and the signs of a oversold RSI.

For these reasons I am looking at a chance to go long upon opening of the market, well, once liquidity is good, namely upon Tokyo’s opening.

Of course, remember, I do not win 100% of the time :blush:

I hope this makes sense. As usual, I welcome your comments so I can find better ways to express my technical analysis.

Happy trading :slight_smile:

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gj not a harami.png1275×719 87.8 KB

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248

_ GBP/JPY + 92 pips last trade; New Trade: Bull Crown_
Hi there,
In post # 240 I forecast the possible formation of a Bull Crown Reversal for the G/J. In post # 241 I commented that the market didn’t form a correct “Harami” candlestick. I however, had a few reasons why I felt that I was still going to trade this “possible” reversal crown.

Well, I have now entered this long trade.
We will see how it pans out… :blush:
happy trading :slight_smile:

AUD/USD Analysis: I noticed that my post #242 coincides with my actual trade# personal recording which is the bull crown…so I am adding my analysis of the AUD/USD here for those of you that may be interested in trading it. I am not trading it, not because I do not believe on my own analysis, but for the simple reasons that (a) the G/J makes me far more money at far lesser risk and (b) because "I want to put all my eggs in one basket"…

So this trade is on my demo account, which I still have and use to “test” my new ideas. I say I want to put all my eggs in one basket, meaning really “I want to stay FOCUS” in all my ventures this has worked best for me. In punting I only have ONE system that I follow and it has survived over 10 years with continues profits…talking about consistency. But the key is not the system, but the “punter” the ability to be 100% consistent and discipline to bet the designated amount always and not to bleed units. I achieved that. In poker, I only focus on one tournament at a time. Although I do not longer consider poker a reasonable venue for income but only a hobby, I still apply discipline to my weekly home game. In real estate, we stuck to one strategy and it worked.

So, in forex, although I have been trading successfully for a long time, I only started to try to document my strategy since I pretty much started this thread, I looked to document and to update my method which now I have completed and it is now time to “stick to it with 100% discipline” and this include (at this point in time) stick to only one cross.

But, because one cross and one punting system is not enough to keep me “busy” I need to have my demo account where I “can get some action” to keep me out of trouble.

Luckily, life outside punting, poker and forex trading has kept me very busy :slight_smile: keeping me out of trouble and allowing me to let my trades play out without my “interference”…

This is why I am not longer trading AU or EU or any other cross, but I am happy to show my thoughts and the trades I take on demo for those interested. This will also help me decide in the future (perhaps 2018) wether it is worth to add more crosses to my “Keep it simple and stay focus” strategy or not.

happy trading :slight_smile:

au trade jun 5th.png1273×712 79 KB

249

ALERT: EU Possible Trade Set Up: Long
Currently we have a potential Engulfing Candle and 618 fibonacci and Trend Line bounce forming in the EUR/USD.
If you wish to trade it, It has also already formed an engulfing on the 30min and the 1h candle due to complete in 20mins should also give an engulfing formation which can also be traded long.
Happy trading :slight_smile:

eu trade set up.png1275×721 107 KB

UPDATE 6 jun: The 2h candle did close at the expected price area of 1.12500 just 5pips of what I mentioned in this post. So I demo traded this set up, did you?
We are only about +5-8 pips so not a confirmed win yet… :slight_smile:

eu trade set up 2h close.png1278×732 97.3 KB

there were signals all around in the 1h chart and the below 30min chart which I used to enter since i was going to sleep right after… :slight_smile:

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250

GB{/JPY Bull Crown"s +100pips +60pips"
Hi there, our post #239 generated a nice move of +100pips but 5hours after such entry there was another nice “Bull Crown Reversal” formed in the 30m (and 1h for that matter) charts (as shown). This nice set up gave us the opportunity for a quick 60pips pick up. Did anyone out there is trading the 30m or 1h timeframes? did you pick this set up?
I was already in the trade and unfortunately not watching the market for a “second entry”, truly, I never expected to have a nice crown set up entry shown so quickly!..

so instead we are still on the post #240 trade (2h bull crown reversal). However, we have seen a contrarian signal just formed in the 2h a “Shooting Star” the good news is that we have our trade practically at b/e (about 6 pips below our original entry) and the g/j has moved back down a good 70 pips to the 618 fibonacci, I am now awaiting for a second entry at this level IF it forms a nice 2h candlestick signal…let’s wait and see…alternatively, my 100+ pips move and +60pips move would turned into “two missed opportunities” :frowning:

happy trading :slight_smile:

gj 30m bull crown.png1277×712 131 KB

251

GREAT NEWS
Fellow followers, I have just found my way around creating a video. I just tested it and it appears to work. I didn’t go as far as uploading or saving the video when prompted since it was the first attempt. But I have seen others using such software so with 15 years experience in IT I am sure I can figure this out! Even though I finished with IT ten years ago! and the technology is far more advance lol

In any case, stay tune since I will be creating a brand new thread under the “Trading Systems” section since my future videos will be more suited in such section. I will let you know and hopefully you guys will continue to follow my videos.

My intention is to “forecast” the set ups so you can have time to trade them. When I post “real time trades” some may miss out because our time zones are different, but when “forecasting” I believe it might give more notice so you can be on the look out!..

anyway, the videos will also contain some “tutorials” on my trading strategy. I hope I can show and tell each of my 4-type of trading set ups that I have mostly used during my “100 real time (live) trades challenge”…

happy trading :slight_smile:

252

My Trading Strategy Video Part I
Hi fellow traders, finally, my first video. Please go easy since it is my very first time using and filming a video. I hope to improve with experience.
I am aiming for two types of videos:
(1) Educational: where I review past trades or even perhaps missed opportunities, my trading method, including candlesticks, examples of my 4 category of trade set ups, etc
(2) Forecasting: where I will forecast set ups that I see in the making and that will fit with one of my four trade categories like the recent crown set up, etc.

Happy trading :slight_smile:

My Trading Strategy Part I

253

My Trading Strategy Video Part II
Following on my “educational” video series (see previous post)

Here we have part II. This video focus on a detailed description of the “Type A” trades set up that I trade as part of my defined strategy.
This is the simplest, and perhaps of no much interest to the majority of you since we all know how to “trade with the trend” the “trend is your friend”…but nevertheless I want to provide a complete series as we move onto the more interesting “forecasting videos”

Happy trading :slight_smile:
If the direct video link doesn’t work, click on
My Trading Strategy Video Part II

254

My Trading Strategy Video Part III
Following on my “educational” video series (see previous post)


Here we are with part III. This video focus on a detailed description of the “Type B” trades set up when a candlestick formation breaks the inner trend line

My Trading Strategy Video Part III

happy trading

255

My Trading Strategy Video Part IV
Following on my “educational” video series (see previous post)


We are now looking at the “Crown Reversal” set up (Type “C”) of my 4-class trading strategy
Happy trading

PS my apologies for the background noise, I believe my computer was overheating or something

My Trading Strategy Video Part IV

256

My Trading Strategy Video Part V
Hi there, in this part v of my trading strategy video series I am exploring group D, swing trade Fibonacci 78.6% and the non documented new Group E “EMAs and Fibonacci Convergences” set up
As I was recording the previous videos I realised that all up there were 6-types of trades set ups that I was trading during my 100 real time challenge, not 5 as I have been saying. So here I go thru group D and group E. In my next video I will look at the most dangerous of all the group F “counter trend trading” which I itch so much to trade but it has cost me more than not…

The example I am using in this Video Part V is from a real time trade I posted on the post number 242 (below). This trade ended up on +120pips with a risk of 65pips (for me on the time I traded) for the example had one caught the entry at the opening of the day candle it cost 57pips. Anyway, once more I hope you enjoy this video.

Real Time Swing Trade 786 post 242:

My Trading Strategy Video Part V

257

AUD/USD & EUR/USD
I will be posting a technical video on these attached trade set ups.
I will also be continuing my strategy video series hopefully this weekend. I am a bit tied up at the moment
happy trading

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eurusd.png1275×752 71 KB

258

My FX Trading Strategy Video Part VI
Dear fellow traders, we are back continuing my video series…don’t worry almost done!
following on…

In this video we go thru group E “emas bounce” type of trades set up and group F “against the trend” using RSI divergence. The latter, my least favourite, but one that I am keen to crack. basically to find a way to reduce the number of losing trades before we hit the winning one…this group success rate is by far the lowest of all 6…
I hope you enjoy this video, I kind of run out of time since I also include a quick review with samples for each type

My next couple of videos will be for:
(a) Bankroll management, pyramid trading, cancel & replace technique which basically is just @riding the trend@
(b) Technical analysis on the AUD/USD and EUR/USD trades I just entered live and in demo and posted in the post above.

My Forex Trading Strategy Part VI

259

My FX Trading Strategy Video Part VII -Final

Following on…

The final episode of my basic yet successful trading strategy is here!. In this video I look at the old time topic of Bankroll Management. I also will show an example of my very own “Milestone Approach” that I have mentioned in a few posts and videos before.
We also will look at a “Cancel & Replace” method I learnt long time ago with one forex trading education group from which I learnt my trading. This method coupled with an “Exit / Reverse” approach has by far been the most profitable of any other methods I used, like Fibonacci Extensions, etc.

When you combine the above with Gann’s Pyramid Trading approach, well, there is no stopping
:slight_smile:

The next set of videos will be real time (where possible) forecasting trades set ups like the AUD/USD and EUR/USD trades I just entered last Friday and so forth…Stay tuned!

PS all of you viewers, please LIKE or SUBSCRIBE to My Youtube Channel, it is simply encouraging to continue doing videos if my fellow traders are enjoying or benefiting from it…

happy trading!

My Forex Trading Strategy Video Final -Money Management

260

FX Trader’s Challenger Results -RECAP
Before I move onto the more interesting videos, here is a quick review of the real time posted 100 trades results. I have quantified my “edge” which I hope in the future to increase resulting in even higher pips profits. I am thinking that perhaps in say 3-6 months time I might start another set of at least 50 real time trades to compare my edge then to the first challenge…
Anyway, feel free to skip this video if you already are a “believer” on “simple is better, less is more”…

My next video and post is on the Active Trade Set Up: EUR/USD and AUD/USD which you might still be able to get in…

Happy trading

Click: RECAP VIDEO: Trader’s Challenge - 100 Real Time Trades EDGE Calculation

261

WEEK AHEAD Mon 12 June 2017: AUD/USD & EUR/USD
Following on my previous post…

In this video I explain the technical reasons for this still OPEN Trades I took last Friday night during the London Trading session.

I am hoping to find a good “consistent” way to title, and present my videos…so bare with me and I guarantee I will achieve such “consistency” since it is in my nature!

Happy Trading :slight_smile:

Click: Open Trades: AUD/USD, EUR/USD

262

TRADE REAL TIME: USD JPY 12 June 2017 London Opening
In this VIDEO I enter a trade on real time during the video whilst also analysing 5 other crosses

So far we have 3 active trades: EUR/USD, AUD/USD and now USD/JPY
Watch the video to also see what other entry/set up we are waiting for…

Happy trading:

263

Trades Reviews during Asian Session Jun 13 2017
Following on…

In this video we review the progress of our first 3 trades since we started the video series. This 3 trades are still open.

We are starting the demo with $5K and using the usual 5% risk per trade so we can use this to see the progress with our chosen trades and hopefully this will give me some insight on how much we improve in discipline and consistency for the next months…

happy trading

264

Trades Update June 14 2017
New Trades NZD/USD (NU) & GBP/JPY (GJ)
Closed Trade USD/JPY = 0 pips
Open Trades: NU, EU, AU, GJ

265

ALERT: GJ LONG EXIT & REVERSE SHORT
We have reversed our position on the G/J for a quick short towards what we believe will be the right tip of a Bull Crown. We reversed due to a Type E bear trade
NOTE: We are BULLISH on the GBP/JPY but we are waiting to find a proper entry long. Meanwhile, we are shorting hoping to catch a retracement ride for a few pips…

Happy trading :slight_smile:

266

VLog Trades Update Jun 15 2017 AM
Well, the exit reverse on the G/J paid off…:slight_smile:

Overall, after 6 trades we executed since I commenced the Videos we are down in our Bank by 5% :frowning:

Onto the next!

VLog Update Jun 15 2017.png961×279 60.2 KB

PS I usually adjust the Win% once I complete my “snapshot” records…