Short GBP/JPY 141.10 stop 141.555 tp1 140.07 tp2 139.29
As per my strategy, I shorted the 786 which moved +100pips (LT#20) using the H4 chart
Now, LT#20 is at b/e but I have also lighten my position to cash in profits.
The, H1 has presented what appears to be the Right Tip of a Crown at the 786 of the latest downswing
I have pyramid this initial trade by adding 1/2 position
The tp for this later trade is the 140.07, however, I am in the process of trading without a TP at all, instead to let the market do its thing, and exit or lighten positions or tighten stops if it presents a counter signal at H4 or H2.
If this counter signal is strong enough that meet a criteria for a trade, then I exit/reverse the trade
This method with the GBP/JPY was in face the one that has in the past given me plenty of profits (before the october brexit french minister comment), when I used to trade this way BUT I had not written down in detail such strategy! It was only this morning that I spent reviewing my pre-oct 2016 trades that I found out from my print screens (one good thing I have been doing for ever) that I:
Only used to trade the GBP.JPY nothing else!
I enter the Parent Trade (or first trade) at full position on a H4 or H2 signal only (never on a 1h or 30m)
I let the trade play out until a similar strength counter signal on H4 or H2 appear
In between, I enter āchildā trades in pyramid fashion using any chart from 30m to 4h
I never exit / reverse a trade unless the original trade has at least move 1:1 and it is in profits. I never wouldāve closed a trade to enter the opposite direction (like i did last week!) if the trade was in a loss, for the simple reason that I would be āsecuring a loss and risking to lose more if I am wrongāā¦which more often than not I have!
I only started trading the AUDUSD after oct because the gbpjpy went into a sideways market not allowing entries, it went ādistortedā due to the huge fall. This has costed me more than if I simply took a break and waited for it to reinstate its normal movements.
Anyway, here I have pyramid the LT20 ā¦
lets wait and see.
I didnāt see any strong h4 or h2 signal of the recent rally as an exit/reverseā¦so lets see how it plays out
there is nothing āfor sureā or āguaranteeā in this market.
I was about not to enter, despite of my analysis tell me so, simply because I wanted to āpreserveā my profits, but some wise mentor reminded me that to ābe successful you need to act as a successful personā and that I cant make decisions based on money but simply ādetachā from it.
I play poker semi-professionally, and the same applies there. If I make a decision or stop making a decision because of fear to be knocked out rather than simply taking the action because it is the right action, I still end up being knocked outā¦a few hands laterā¦and missing out on winningā¦
ps this entry was set up at 4:30am but I was sleeping, however the market stayed or came back to the original entry of 141.10 (thereabouts) during awaken hoursā¦
by 22:30hrs when the next 2h candle form, at the 618 of the last upswing, if it ends up forming a Harami,
I will be forced to lighten my position even further and perhaps consider that my āCrown Right Tipā analysis maybe invalidated
patience is key at the momentā¦
well, the market continue to fall on opening with a small retracement.
however the RSI is showing signs of oversold and divergence
I do not work with RSI anymore, for the simple reason that was causing me to ātrade against the trendā more often than not, I couldnāt get myself to use it as a complementary signal to buy or sell in the direction of the trendā¦which ended up costing me money
I have lighten my positions, although there was a nice entry at the beginning of trading at the 382 i usually ignore the first few hours of trading on the beginning of the week for obvious reasons
where to from here?
Option 1: Market will continue its down trend after a retracementā¦or
Option 2: Market will make a reverse crown by breaking the Inner Trend Line and change direction
if Option 1: I will only add a pyramid base position if it forms a nice candlestick at a 786 of the shown down swing
If Option 2: I will probably NOT exit / reverse but might close my position specially if supported by a nice 2h or 4h candlestick
now i have more time to describe reasons for entryā¦
it is quite obvious by the pictureā¦market retraced up to the 618 and formed a Shooting Star followed by an Engulfing candle in the h2 chart.
This happened after breaking the most recent inner down trend line as shown. Now, the following south move length can be one of two as I see it:
It is on its way to form a Reverse Crown meaning that the Right Tip should be at around the level of the 2nd low )Left Tip) where the āblack arrowā is pointing.
This area is around the 139.20-139.00 prices where we also have the 786 fib of the last up swing.
I have my target at 139.104 just in between, I am going for a clean 2x profit this time.
or
If I am wrong and the gbp is on its way to the 127% extension which is also around the 786% of the largest up swing from 16/1/17 to 27/1/17 then I wouldāve missed out on about 100 pips since these two areas 127/786 are around 138.20-138
I am hoping that the gbp will form the RT at the 139 area then go up to the 786 shown around 141 before heading back down to the 138 (786/127) gartley
I have set up an alert price just above my TP just in case I get to close only half position and wait to see if the gbp forms a candle signal at the 139 levels showing that the RT is forming. If not then I will be able to ride it down to 138
okā¦gbp decided to form a Piercing Line candlestick at the 786 of the last up swingā¦
because I am short, I will not exit/reverse on my trade simply because it has only moved 1:1 r:r (Max Move) and it is not at a min of 1:1 profits because of it. According to my trading rules, I only exit / reverse a trade if I am at least at 1:1 R:R in profits.
However, I have moved my stop at b/e. if stop out, I will seek to re-enter on the 786 at 141.13 area
Unfortunately the gbp is reducing its swings, had it stopped at the 786 I would have hit my min of 2x profit but there is always the next trade
Our current trade has been āranged boundā for the past two days
However, it looks as if we might be moving our way finallyā¦
the GJ will need to clear the last 618 support area of the last up swing, denoted in green rectangle
letās wait and seeā¦
ps on a further note, I have now put together for first time my own āTrading Manualā the core is complete but the Doās and Donātās will be a living component as well as sample of āfailed signalsā
I believe that in order to learn it is required to make mistakes, and learn from them. I have recorded those ākeyā mistakes I have made over the past few months and added them to my manual so I include them as part of my weekly studiesā¦
My manual contains:
Trading Mantra
Key trading tools
Flowchart of my trades selection (Parent and Child entries)
Profit management (explaining the cancel and replace method and my āmilestoneā bankroll approach)
Western Patterns (the ones I choose to trade)
Doās and Donātās
Sample Trades
Sample of Failed/False/Incorrect Signals
Sample of profits results using the milestone bankroll approach
The results have been amazing, I have already improved my self - discipline by simply completing this manual. By analysing the potential of my method using backtesting and live trades I entered in the past (i.e. selecting only those trades with the GBPJPY that follow my strategyā¦as you know I havenāt followed my strategy 100% e.g. trading other crossesā¦) it has given me a lot to look forward toā¦
If there is anyone out there that has been following my simple method of trading let me know if you are interested in getting a copy of my manual as soon as I am happy with all its content. It wonāt include all 37 trades (Jul16-Mar17) because it would be too big but I will be including some sample trades
LT25 SHORT got stopped out at -46 pips
I am looking at a possible descending bearish wedge but in the medium term
in the short term the gj has broken the inner trend line and bounced of a 50% fib support. I expect it to rally towards the 786 fib resistance (denoted by the down arrow) at around the 140.25. our long profit target is just below this price
happy trading
