for the reasons shown in attached screen plus it missed our target by just 2pips…which is good enough
30m -dark cloud cover (dcc)
1h - shooting star (ss)
2h - shooting star (ss)
all of which is happening at the 786 and Down Trend Line as shown
I will be reversing that is going Short upon completion of the 4-hourly candle by when the 2h should have a further confirmation like a bear engulfing candle to boot
further, while trying to stick to my 4-hourly “check up only” I have placed a limit order to sell GJ at 140.15 with gslo at 140.313. I would normally enter right now, when I didn’t have my strict rules as I see it I have 3 time zones giving me confirmation but…I want to improve on my self-discipline…so I wait…I hope…
LONG @ 1.0593
STOP @ 1.0483
TP @1.1078 (161.8% FIB EXTENSION AND 786 FIB RETRACEMENT)
Chart: Daily
Tech Reason: right tip of a reverse crown formed at the 618
correction stop for LT29 ear/usd trade is at 105.18
i expect the eur/usd to retrace after forming a 4h evening star at the 618 of the last downswing
i intend to continue with my defined strategy to stay on a trade for as long as the market trends
the eur/usd made a clear Right Tip of a Reverse Crown
so now I have moved onto the 4-hr chart awaiting for a retracement to a 618 or 786 fibonnaci to add to the existing day chart trade (LT29)
happy trading
unfortunately I had rushed in entering this trade last week, rather than waiting and today the gj formed a right tip of a reverse crown at the 618 giving a better entry at 139.80…having said that, I feel now even more confident in this trade (LT28) and we will be looking at adding to it further down the track
Reverse Crown AUD/USD:
The AU has formed a Engulfing Candle at the Support and 382 of the last Daily Chart Upswing
This is not an entry for me, however, it has recently broken an Inner Trend Line on the 4H Chart…
and it appears to be in the process of also forming a Reverse Crown (as shown).
The Break of an Inner Trend Line is a key indicator that I use to look at a possible reversal. However I rather have this break at a 618 or 786 fibonnacci with also a RSI Divergence to boot…I also like the ITL break to happen by the candle stick formation/signal, In this case the Engulfing candle (like it happened with the GJ not long ago…which btw I missed out on trading it!)
If the ITL break doesn’t happen with the candle signal, then I would look for a Crown to form to enter the right tip…The Left Tip of this Crown on the H4 is at the 50% fib and it looks as I will be entering my third live trade by 22:30 hrs (Adelaide Time) i.e. on this candle close IF of course I have a candle signal like an Engulfing
I thought I write my “thoughts” while we play the waiting game…
On another note, I find myself being a lot more disciplined! If I see that I only have around 3 -trades per week, I will be increasing my Risk from 2% to 3% per trade with a maximum exposure of 10% of open risk at any given time…
So Current Active Trades are L28 (Long GJ) and L29 (Long EU)
AU Crown RT: We are still awaiting for a confirmed Reverse Crown Right Tip to form. The AU didn’t have a clear candle signal formed at the 50% Fib as shown in the attached update. So what I am waiting for here is a fall to the 50fib once more with a nice candle signal to confirm that the 50fib also support is in fact the Right Tip I am awaiting for. Of course, the market can change its ways any time whenever some news or else happens, but that is just part of the game…
GJ continues to haunt me…it formed a nice Morning Star at the 50-618 fib level which appeared to have been the confirmed Right Tip of the Crown…which I would’ve traded if it wasn’t because I was already on this long trade…and I would’ve lost this trade too since my stop needed to be below the low of this MS…I guess my mistake of entering on a break of the wedge/triangle was a saviour after all.
all of this was from my very first missed to enter the bull engulfing candle that broke the inner trend line on the 4h chart…but as we all are, I am learning and improving with every trade
Coming back to this update…the GJ looks now as it is confirming the Right Tip at the 618. Actually, when I think about it, I DO NOT TRADE 382 OR 50 FIBS!! anyway…but my comment above, has to do with the fact that the MS formed between the 50 and the 618 levels, which could’ve been interpreted as a “close enough to the 618 to trade!”… This sort of situations (when the candle formation is close to the 618 or 786 and hasn’t touched it or crossed it) reminds me why it is good to place your stop below the 786 or at least quite below the 618 “just in case” the market decides to have one more go at these levels. Of course, this means that I will have to buy lets units, but at least I won’t lose!..
So now it is possibly forming a new Morning Star. This means the current 4h candle has to close at around 139.66 to make it a textbook morning star.
Now, I would love to add to my current position by moving the stop below this MS but I am still concern that it might still like to hit the 786 to make the Right Tip at this level (which matches the Left Tip level of 139.00
So in summary, I am still monitoring this and I have decided to oNLY ADD to my current position if the Right Tip is formed at the 786.