FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Analysis

Commercial Content Analysts
88

The report below shows levels of open interest in currency futures market. The data is based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily Volume and Open Interest Report. Data provided by the report contains Open Interest from the previous trading day.
Interpretation and analysis – GainForexSignal Team

Euro FX
EUR/USD

Date 21/02/2012
Total Open Interest 295,500
Net Marginal Change 1,416

An Open Interest increased by 1,416 new transactions in Friday’s trading. The total of OI in Euro FX Futures amounted to 295,500 contracts. This level is still extremely high to compare to historical data. The Euro saw 8.921 new contracts being created by traders since the last massive decline. This number accounts for over 3% of the total OI. We now notice more fresh money coming into the Euro market. The EUR/USD managed to keep the steady level above 1.3250 during volatile week and economic uncertainty in Europe. We have been long from 1.3030 and expecting higher prices in this market. More new OI will be a strong signal to support the current uptrend.

GBP FUTURES
GBP/USD
Date 21/02/2012
Total Open Interest 186,626
Net Marginal Change -3,132

The British Sterling futures Open Interest decreased by another 3,132 transactions. Cable’s interest remains low among futures traders. The OI has been quite volatile recently. Overall GBP decreased by 10.3% since 03 Jan 2012. This decline might signal the end of massive recent downtrend (1.61-1.52). Since 1.52 we have experienced rising prices on the ranging interest. Given that the downtrend is now over, we expect higher prices in GBP/USD. More new OI is needed to support more substantial move upwards. Expect the correction towards 1.56 in short run.

YEN FUTURES
USD/JPY
Date 21/02/2012
Total Open Interest 150,379
Net Marginal Change 165

The Japanese Yen futures OI added only 165 new positions in Friday’s trading. This is the first day with a positive open interest since 6th Feb 2012. The falling interest in this market might continue further from now on. The spot price USD/JPY spiked significantly breaking all technical levels. Given the COT sentiment where non-commercial traders decreased their long Yen positions by huge amount recently, we expect higher prices in USD/JPY. Correction is possible in short run. At this stage, intervention can be ruled out.

FRANK FUTURES
USD/CHF
Date 21/02/2012
Total Open Interest 51,086
Net Marginal Change 1,520

Frank’s futures added another 1,520 new contracts. Frank is getting quite popular currency to buy among traders. It has added 29% since the decline ended on 25th Jan 2012.Unless 10% drop in OI expect lower prices in USD/CHF in the coming days/weeks. Strategy remains the same – sell USD/CHF on rallies.

AUD FUTURES
AUD/USD
Date 21/02/2012
Total Open Interest 150,578
Net Marginal Change -3,045

An Australian dollar futures OI declined by substantial 3,045 contracts. Aud OI has been flattening for a week now. The rate that traders add new transactions is definitely fading. Australian dollar tend to drop significant amount of an open interest in only few sessions. Given the fact that commercials traders are extremely short in Aud futures, we might see a correction in AUD/USD spot price. The fading OI is a signal that less new money is going into AUD futures market. We have placed the short positions accordingly. For an update please refer to our forex signal page.

89

Written by David Song

[B][U]DJ FXCM Dollar Index[/U][/B]

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.40 percent higher from the open after moving 104 percent of its average true range, and the shift away from risk-taking behavior should prop up the reserve currency as renewed fears of a Greek default drags on trader sentiment. However, as the 30-minute relative strength index falls back from a high of 72, it looks as though there will be a short-term correction before another move to the upside, and we will be closely watching the upward trending channel from earlier this year as the index struggles to push above 9,900. In turn, the USDOLLAR may fall back towards the lower Bollinger Band (9,839) going into the end of the week, but we maintain a bullish outlook for the greenback as the recovery in the world’s largest economy continues to gather pace.

Although the existing home sales report for January struck a mixed outlook for the housing market, the more robust recovery in employment paired with the ongoing expansion in production should help to encourage a stronger recovery, and we expect the Fed to further soften its dovish tone for monetary policy as the outlook for growth and inflation improves. As we’re expecting to see a slew of positive developments coming out of the U.S. economy, the data should curb speculation for another large-scale asset purchase program, but the event risks could fuel risk-taking behavior, which would dampen the appeal of the USD. Nevertheless, we will be watching for a close above the 50-Day SMA (9,884) to reinforce our bullish forecast for the dollar, and we may see the index make another run at the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement (10,118) as the Fed comes closer to concluding its easing cycle.

The greenback advanced against three of its four components, led by the 0.70 percent decline in the Japanese Yen, and the bearish sentiment underlining the low-yielding currency may gather pace over the near-term as the fundamental outlook for the world’s third-largest economy deteriorates. Indeed, the widening spread between U.S. and Japanese bonds has fueled the recent rally in the USDJPY, and the pair looks poised to appreciate further during the first-half of 2012 as the Bank of Japan expands its easing cycle. As Japanese policy makers scramble to stem the risk for deflation, the BoJ may continue to ramp up its asset purchases over the coming months, but the weakening outlook for the region is likely to produce headwinds for the Yen as market participants see the central bank maintaining the highly accommodative policy for a prolonged period of time.

Source: USD Index To Resume Upward Trend, Japanese Yen Weakness To Accelerate | DailyFX

90

[B][U]Written by David Rodriguez[/U][/B]

[B]EURUSD[/B] – We continue to call for further Euro strength as trading crowds remain short and continue selling into rallies. Our Speculative Sentiment Index data shows that the number of traders short the EURUSD outnumber those long by -1.91; 66 percent of traders are short. Said ratio first turned negative when the pair broke above $1.27, and we have little reason to stray from our bullish bias.
It is further worth noting that the absolute level of short interest is now at multi-week highs; shorts are up 13% since last week. Long positions have actually fallen 6% through the same stretch, and the overall crowd bias is increasingly clear.

As we argued in last week’s Euro forecast, there is considerable risk that the EURUSD could trade significantly higher. We see little major technical resistance until the December high near $1.3550.

[I]Source: Euro Targets Highs on Crowd Sentiment | DailyFX[/I]

91

In case you missed today’s exciting Bernanke testimony and Dollar strengthening bonanza, here’s a highlight from Christopher Vecchio on Bernanke’s commentary:

Written by Christopher Vecchio

[I]On Economic Conditions[/I]

[ul]
[li]Private payroll employment has increased by 165,000 jobs per month on average since the middle of last year, and nearly 260,000 new private-sector jobs were added in January.
[/li][li]The job gains in recent months have been relatively widespread across industries. In the public sector, by contrast, layoffs by state and local governments have continued.
[/li][li]The unemployment rate hovered around 9 percent for much of last year but has moved down appreciably since September, reaching 8.3 percent in January. New claims for unemployment insurance benefits have also moderated.
[/li][li]Household spending advanced moderately in the second half of last year, boosted by a fourth-quarter surge in motor vehicle purchases that was facilitated by an easing of constraints on supply related to the earthquake in Japan.
[/li][li]In the housing sector, affordability has increased dramatically as a result of the decline in house prices and historically low interest rates on conventional mortgages.
[/li][li]On the supply side of the market, about 30 percent of recent home sales have consisted of foreclosed or distressed properties, and home vacancy rates remain high, putting downward pressure on house prices.
[/li][li]Manufacturing production has increased 15 percent since the trough of the recession and has posted solid gains since the middle of last year, supported by the recovery in motor vehicle supply chains and ongoing increases in business investment and exports.
[/li][/ul]

[I]On Monetary Conditions[/I]

[ul]
[li]The target range for the federal funds rate remains at 0 to 1/4 percent, and the forward guidance language in the FOMC policy statement provides an indication of how long the Committee expects that target range to be appropriate.
[/li][li]At the January 2012 FOMC meeting, the Committee amended the forward guidance further, extending the horizon over which it expects economic conditions to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate to at least through late 2014.
[/li][/ul]

[B]THE TAKEAWAY: [/B][Fed Chairman Bernanke’s Semi-Annual Testimony ] > [Committee Critical of Dual-Mandate; Bernanke Less Dovish] > [[B]USDollar Bullish[/B]]

Full Report: Euro Tanks, U.S. Dollar Surges on Bernanke Testimony | DailyFX

92

Written by David Song

[B]DJ FXCM Dollar Index[/B]

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.25 percent lower from the open after moving 69 percent of its average true range, and we may see the greenback consolidate further over the next 24-hours of trading as it breaks out of the downward trending channel from the previous month. However, as the index carves out a higher low, we should see the rebound from 9,738 gather pace in the coming week, and market participants may turn increasingly bullish against the USD as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke withdraws comments support another large-scale asset purchase program. The shift in the central bank rhetoric should drive the USD higher in March, and we may see the FOMC continue to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy as growth and inflation picks up.

As the USDOLLAR carves out a higher low coming into March, we should see the index continue to retrace the decline from earlier this year, but the downward trend in the relative strength index continues to paint a mixed picture for the reserve currency. As the index struggles to push back above the 50.0 percent Fibonacci retracement around 9,830, the dollar looks as though it will track sideways over the near-term, but we are more bullish than bearish against the dollar as the fundamentals support a higher exchange rate. In turn, it seems as though it will only be a matter of time before we see the 50.0 percent Fib give way, and we may see the index make another run at the 78.6 percent Fib around 10,118 as market participants scale back speculation for QE3.

Three of the four components advanced against the dollar, led by a 0.60 percent in the Australian dollar, and the high-yielding currency may appreciate further over the near-term as the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.25 percent in March. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants see a 15 percent chance for a 25bp rate cut next week, and we may see the exchange rate breakout of the narrow range carried over from February should the central bank talk down expectations for lower borrowing costs. However, we may see the central bank increase its efforts to combat the slowing recovery in the $1T economy, and Governor Glenn Stevens may keep the door open to lower the cash rate further in an effort to stem the downside risks for the region. In turn, we may see the AUDUSD threaten the floor around 1.0600, and we will be keeping a close eye on the relative strength index as it continues to track lower.

[I]Source: USD Weakness To Be Short-Lived, Australian Dollar To Threaten Range | DailyFX[/I]

93

DailyFX Course Instructor Jeremy Wagner just posted a chart an AUD/USD chart to his twitter feed a few minutes ago pointing out a trend line on the 1 hour chart saying:

Putting a support line to test at 1.0746. A break points towards 1.06. A hold means more of the same

94

[I]Written by Trang Nguyen of DailyFX[/I]

THE TAKEAWAY: U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February> Job Creation in Private Sector Gathered Pace > [b]U.S. Dollar Mixed[/B]

Job creation in the private sector gathered pace in February after slowing somewhat in the previous month, pointing to positive developments in the U.S. labor market in year 2012. The monthly ADP National Employment report issued today showed that U.S. companies added 216 thousand jobs last month, following a revised 173 thousand gain in January and 292 thousand increase in December. The print is slightly higher than expected as forty-four economists survey by Bloomberg News had predicted a gain of 215 thousand. This is also better than monthly employment average of 200 thousand in last five months. January’s reading was upwardly revised to a gain of 173 thousand from 170 thousand initially reported. As the ADP employment change is considered a precursor to the non-farm payrolls number, a favorable figure today raised hope that non-farm payrolls reading released this Friday might meet or beat expectations as well.

U.S. Monthly ADP Employment Change vs. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: June 2010 to Present

Prepared by Trang Nguyen

Job growth was widespread in most of private firms in February, led by service-producing companies. Service producers generated 170 thousand jobs, following 149 jobs added in January and 225 jobs created in December. Employment in the construction industry grew by 16 thousand, marking the fifth consecutive gain in this sector. Meanwhile, employment in the financial services sector increased 14 thousand in the month, the largest monthly gain over the last two years. Employment in manufacturing accelerated in February, as did good-producing sector. Factories added 21 thousand jobs compared to 16 thousand in January while goods producers hired 46 thousand more employees in the month, nearly double the number added in December, 2011.

Regarding to size base, small firms registered the biggest increase of 108 thousand new hires in February compared with 93 new jobs in the preceding month. Likewise, medium firms reported 88 thousand new payrolls, well above 76 thousand added in January. Large firms created 20 thousand jobs in February after modestly adding 4 thousand jobs in the prior month.

[I]Source: ADP Reports 216,000 Private Jobs Created in February; USD Trades Mixed | DailyFX[/I]

95

A fitting article in light of tomorrow’s big announcement:

[I][B]Written by Walker England of DailyFX Trading Instructor[/B][/I]

The Non-Farm Payrolls is one of the most watched and highly anticipated reports on the US economic calendar. Non-Farm Payrolls will be abbreviated within as NFP and is released on a monthly basis to give a timely glimpse into employment inside of the United States. These numbers are released by the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics to assist policy makers with decisions regarding monetary policy.

NFP looks specifically at net changes in employment as jobs are created or subtracted in an economy in any given month. The term Non-Farm is used since farm / agricultural workers are not included in the employment count. The decision to not include agricultural jobs lies in these jobs being largely seasonal that could possibly produce small temporary shifts in labor reporting. For this reason certain government employees, private household employees and nonprofit organization are also not included in the count.

As the most comprehensive employment number released in the United States, the results have been known to produce volatility in the Forex Market. The next NFP announcement is set to take place this Friday March 9th at 8:30 am New York time, and it makes sense as a trader to be prepared for unexpected volatility. Below we can see a 5minute chart of the EUR/USD. This snapshot is taken after the February 3rd NFP announcement. Last month it was released that 243,000 new jobs were added to the economy which was considerably more than the 150k predicted. This caused the EUR/USD spiked 40 pips and printed a daily high at 1.3204. Less than an hour later the EUR/USD had moved 139 pips lower to 1.3065.

With expectations of 210,000 new jobs being added to the economy this report; traders need to be ready if numbers do not come out in line with expectations. Traditionally there are many ways of trading the news including breakouts , news fades , and trading market dips . Trading NFP can be an exciting and often profitable pursuit for traders willing to enter into a volatile market. Regardless of the strategy taken, it is always important to keep an eye on risk / reward levels while minimizing the use of leverage in case volatility spikes against your trade.

[I]Source: NFP The Monthly Market Mover | DailyFX[/I]

97

Written by Christopher Vecchio of DailyFX

[B]What to Expect for FOMC This Afternoon[/B]

At his semi-annual testimony in front of Congress on February 29, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke offered a cautiously optimistic on the direction of the American economy. However, it was what the chairman left absent from his testimony that proved to be market moving: Chairman Bernanke made no mention of a third round of quantitative easing. In recent weeks, Federal Reserve officials have made waves with their differing views on the effectiveness of quantitative easing, and now market sentiment is leaning towards no such stimulus being offered up. With that said, it became apparent last week that the Federal Open Market Committee is considering another “Operation Twist” like effort.

Whereas the U.S. Dollar strengthened after the chairman’s testimony on Capitol Hill lacking mentions of QE3, the world’s reserve currency depreciated immediately last week when it was leaked that the FOMC would consider another “Twist.” With the Fed Funds rate on hold indefinitely, market participants will look for rhetoric from the Fed about more easing. If the statement accompanying the rate decision shares the same tone that Chairman Bernanke’s testimony to Congress did, then the U.S. Dollar will likely find support. A weaker U.S. Dollar will only come if the FOMC takes a dovish stance accompanied by more promises of central bank intervention.

[I]Source: Retail Sales Prompt U.S. Dollar Rally Alongside…Equities? | DailyFX[/I]

98

David Rodriguez pointed out on his twitter account a few minutes ago that USD/JPY positioning is close to flipping to net short after being net long for the past 8 months. Here’s a screenshot of the SSI chart he posted:

USD/JPY has already risen nearly 800 pips since the October 2011 lows around 75.60, but maybe this bull move has more room to grow.

99

Written by David Rodriguez

A dramatic surge in US bond yields has sent the US Dollar to fresh 11-month highs against the Japanese Yen, and a tectonic shift in forex market sentiment suggests the USDJPY rally is here to stay.

The US 10-year Treasury Yield has surged above its 200-day Moving Average for the first time since July, 2011, and the highly-correlated US Dollar/Japanese Yen has broken to similar peaks.

[B]Chart of US 10-Year Treasury Yield[/B]

Data Source: Bloomberg

If this is truly the break we have been waiting for in bond yields, we expect the USDJPY to follow in kind. The 10-year Treasury Yield has actually remained somewhat subdued and the yield Japanese Yen has nonetheless fallen sharply against the US Dollar. Today’s surge in both the USDJPY and the 10-Year rate suggests that there is yet another reason to watch for further Yen weakness/US Dollar strength. Such insight lines up well with a similarly significant shift in forex trader sentiment.

[B]US Dollar/Japanese Yen versus US 10-Year Treasury Yield[/B]

Data Source: Bloomberg

Our proprietary Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) data has called for US Dollar losses against the Japanese Yen since it traded below ¥90, but a more recent shift says the opposite. The SSI measures retail forex trader sentiment as seen through FXCM Execution Desk data. Crowds have remained heavily net-long for nearly two years. As of today, crowds have moved net-short and provide strong contrarian signal that the pair could continue higher.

[B]US Dollar/Japanese Yen Forex Retail Positioning Chart:[/B] Long interest has not exceeded short interest for nearly 2 years. Today’s shift is very significant.

Data Source: FXCM Execution Desk
Chart source: TradeStation

Where do we go from here? It would be foolish to believe that the USDJPY could not correct lower before continuing to fresh highs. Our forex technical forecast predicts that 81.95 is a significant area for support. If and when the US Dollar does correct lower against the Japanese Yen, we may look to buy in expectations of continued USDJPY strength.

[I]Source: US Dollar Sets Bottom vs Yen as Treasuries Plummet, Sentiment Flips | DailyFX[/I]

100

Written by Lujia Lin

[B]UNITED STATES[/B]
Policymakers in the world’s largest economy have undertaken large-scale measures on both the monetary and fiscal fronts since the Lehman collapse. Since lowering the Federal Funds Rate target to 0.00-0.25 percent in Nov. 2008, the Fed has launched asset purchases that have swelled its balance sheet to unprecedented levels. Fiscal efforts have focused on both project spending and tax cuts.

As of March 2012, the Fed has already completed both QEI and QEII. Operation Twist is ongoing; however, since purchases of longer-maturity Treasuries are being financed from sales of existing holdings, the program is not adding to the Fed’s balance sheet.

These programs have led to renewed confidence in the US banking sector, lower rates across the yield curve (including historically-low mortgage rates), and a recovery led by manufacturing. Despite signs of a pickup in economic activity, however, weak spots remain, with US home prices stagnant at best. Nonetheless, by signaling that it will hold off on further quantitative easing, the Fed appears to consider its pledge of low rates until late 2014 sufficient for sustaining the economic recovery.

[B]EUROZONE[/B]
In the Eurozone, the bulk of stimulus efforts have been concentrated on the monetary side, as already large deficits and high debt-to-GDP ratios in many Eurozone countries, in addition to fiscal restrictions under the Stability and Growth Pact, ruled out the possibility of significant fiscal efforts. The two main monetary efforts focused on: (1) purchase of government debt issued by peripheral Eurozone nations and (2) longer-term loans to banks at low interest rates. In addition, Eurozone leaders have launched a number of bailouts for peripheral countries.

The ECB’s unconventional measures – combined with Eurozone leaders’ efforts to push through a Greek debt swap and to introduce stricter budgetary rules – have led to some degree of improvement in market sentiment in Europe. Amid improved market confidence, the ECB is now considering suspending the SMP and has even resumed warnings about inflation. Growth remains moribund, however – even Germany’s economy contracted 0.2 percent in the 4th quarter of 2011 – implying that at least the existing loose policy will continue for the foreseeable future.

Full Report Found Here: Stimulus Around the World: What the FX Trader Should Know | DailyFX

101

Do you really believe below?
I think we should look how all below is financed.
It is all debt, debt, debt.
US is not recovering and far from it.
I would argue.
This is a ticking bomb.
Don’t believe the hype – the U.S economy is not recovering, it’s getting sicker. - YouTube

Best Regards

These programs have led to renewed confidence in the US banking sector, lower rates across the yield curve (including historically-low mortgage rates), and a recovery led by manufacturing. Despite signs of a pickup in economic activity, however, weak spots remain, with US home prices stagnant at best. Nonetheless, by signaling that it will hold off on further quantitative easing, the Fed appears to consider its pledge of low rates until late 2014 sufficient for sustaining the economic recovery.

102

Bernanke said the Fed is ready to act if Europe falters again (via CNBC). Code for more stimulus :slight_smile: .

103

[B]Written by Jamie Saettele[/B]

[B]EURJPY Daily Line[/B]

The EURJPY has rallied over 1400 pips from its January low and nearly touched the 10/31/11 (intervention high) today. The proximity of the October pivot combined with the impulsive (5 wave) structure of the advance and waning upside momentum (RSI divergence) warn of a turn lower from current levels. Bigger picture, the 5 wave advance does suggest that a major low is in place and that the coming decline will prove corrective. Levels to keep in mind in

GBPJPY Daily Line

The GBPJPY has rallied over 1600 pips from its January low. The impulsive (5 wave) structure of the advance and waning upside momentum (RSI divergence) warn of a turn lower from current levels. Bigger picture, the 5 wave advance does suggest that a major low is in place and that the coming decline will prove corrective. Levels to keep in mind in the coming weeks are the former 4th wave low at 12650 and former resistance at 12280.

Source: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/forex_strategy_corner/2012/03/21/Yen_Crosses-Reversal_Risk_is_High.html

105

Of course he is ready.
But to print more money in order to depress bond yield so US federal Gov might buy some time to prop up the foamy economy that is in US now.
The point will come that they will not be able to keep interest rates so low.
Investors will lose confidence in worthless $$$ that Bernanke is printing.
They will demand higher compensation.
Then Bernanke will print even more and buy all US debt.
At this stage Oil will be $150, Gold $2500, silver $60 etc.
Total value destruction and diminished standard of living.

This is where we heading. I cant see any recovery.
If there was a recovery Bernanke wouldn’t promise low % up to 2014.
Besides Bernanke did not see any of the bubbles since 1999.
Look up his testimony from 2005/06/07/08. He did not see housing collapse at all.
If fact he was expecting growth to go forever!
This man has no credibility at all.
My grandma saw crisis coming by looking out the window to see more and more houses being built.

God safe America.

106

Written by David Rodriguez of DailyFX.com

EURUSD – Forex retail trading crowds remain steadily net-short the Euro against the US Dollar, and a broader US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) rally suggests the crowd may be on the correct side of the trade. We most often use our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) as a contrarian indicator. That is, if everyone is short we typically go long. Yet last week we highlighted that our Speculative Sentiment Index-based ‘Tidal Shift’ strategy took a short position at $1.3325.

A key determinant of the next EURUSD move may ultimately be whether the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index breaks beyond 8-month highs. And though we do not go against our own SSI-based bias lightly, the crowd may be well-positioned if this is the US Dollar rally we have been waiting for. It is worth noting that the SSI makes us less bearish EURUSD than other dollar pairs, and indeed this author took a long position in the Euro/Australian Dollar pair as different SSI ratios pushed “Tidal Shift” to go long EURAUD.

Source: US Dollar’s Time to Shine Against All Except Japanese Yen | DailyFX

107

I decided to write separate post about this pair because there was again a lot of selling interest that may, just MAY be finishing soon. Here is the chart on which I based my analysis:

Chart_USD_JPY technical studies.jpg700×329 45.6 KB


I will explain each and every line I placed on the chart. I will focus on the main ones and later on I move to the other combinations.

  1. MAIN TREND CHANNEL BLUE LINES

We have seen this trend formation for about 6 weeks already and only on Friday support line was broken. As for such long trend it implies a lot of bearish momentum – especially because after breaking the support we managed to come back and retest it as a resistance. Such event also provides more bearish bias. Support was broken at 82.75 area and retest took place at 82.90 level. From there pair moved strong to the downside.

  1. INNER TREND RED SUPPORT LINE

This line you can see in the middle of the main trend acted as support for 3 times. After it was broken it served as quite good resistance line for further upwards moves.

  1. INNER TREND BRONZE SUPPORT LINE

Also inside the trend but stronger – bronze support line acted well for buyers for 5 times and broke of this inner support line let bears act more decisively. All this led to 83.75 test and it later breakdown.

  1. PURPLE PARALLEL CHANNEL TREND LINES

On the top of the chart you can see those parallel lines which tops and bottom I marked with purple ellipsis. It served well as resistance (after the channel was broken 82.96 level.

  1. LIGHT GREEN DESCENDING CHANNEL LINES

Formed at the end of the week with the test of 82.96 resistance later on served as good support levels during steep price falls towards 81.96. Break of this channel may lead towards 82.96 level again.

  1. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS

I also put Fibo levels on the wave from 7th to 15th March. Last week we already tested two very important support levels at 50% and 61,8% of that wave. In both cases the bounce-back lasted as much as 60 pips and after that selling mode renewed. We indeed have some support below 81.96 at around 81.70 area but breakdown of this level does not seem as good situation for buyers. On the other hand failed test of 81.96 – 61,8% Fibo – seems like a positive sign for buyers for the upcoming week.

More: moneyinvestfx.wordpress.com

108

Hi Fxtraderbrazil,

Thanks for joining the DailyFX/FXCM trading signal thread. We’re happy you’re here to join us to discuss DailyFX analysis. If you would like to promote your own blog, please create your own thread.

Jason

109

[B]Written by David Rodriguez[/B]

[B][U]Market Conditions:[/U][/B]
Forex market volatility expectations and the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) continue to trade at multi-year lows, and we broadly expect the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) to hit fresh troughs against the Euro and other key counterparts.

Volatility expectations continue to trade near their lowest levels since 2007. We do not expect major FX Moves until options traders position themselves for major currency breakouts.

[B]DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias[/B]

Source: US Dollar Primed for Losses as Forex Volatility Tumbles | DailyFX