Quite so - so they want odds that only Farage will win - at 3-1 for Farage to win Clacton - I’d be doen the bookies now with £500 ! so they’re sort of using Farage as a “banker” (Note that for Farage to lose - there’d have to be a disaster - and they are sort of saying "Not even Farage = 8-1 ) and the rest og the seats are predicated on teh assumption “Farage wins Clacton”. at least as I see it.
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Yes, for sure.
I hope Farage wins, anyway. Not saying I’m a “Reform” voter, but it would obviously be good to have him in parliament. Just as it was in the EU parliament when he was there. Lol, if only to highlight the damp rags.
In last weekend’s Sunday Times, the political editor or correspondent was saying that the next Conservative leader, after Sunak, will we whichever one handles “the Farage situation” best.
Next Conservative leader will almost certainly be female?! (Especially if J. Hunt loses his seat, which seems quite likely? Not that he‘s popular with the constituency members anyway, in a leadership election, in spite of the fact that he‘s arguably the one person who has done a reasonably good job in frankly appalling circumstances?).
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Well, they’re saying 20+ is as likely as “specifically 2, not 1 and not 3”? But it may be a small market, anyway?
(There is surely NO chance of 20+!!!).
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Ok I AM a Reform voter and have just today got the “letter” - of which more later perhaps -
But since you mention the NEC rally in Birmingham - and "which “conservative” deals with it best 
Please do watch the Rally - and the Professionalism and sheer competence of those speaking - and teh way the supporters view the situation - bear in mind they only had a couple of days to organise this and write the speeches and sell the tickets ! Link is green writing !
'https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BggfR-mseQ
Go on then - Just for a laugh - which “Conservative” do you think will deal with this lot “the best” - ?
Here is the betting from another source - who have Sunak on a different page at 2-9 to hold his seat - better odds of a defeat than Farage to lose Clacton at 1-7 to win there.
Interesting that the most likely grouping here is 7 and over at 7-4
And 5-4 to get more than 20% of the vote !
That would be a good result ! - I have to say - that I pity any party facing a pocket of 20 or more Reformers - led by possibly the greatest Politician in a hundred years !
Popcorn anyone ? 
Betting is good fun and can be a nice bit of pocket money.
Two things which new punters / once a year punters often don’t realise -
Not all bets remain available throughout an event
and
Use a bookies which offers a Cash Out option and keep an eye on the price they are offering
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You’re right @tommor - and the bookies are often better predictors of trends and probabilities than any “opinion polls” since they take a completely pragmatic view without any “opinion bias” - it is simply a job of work - the way they make their living.
We are extremely lucky this Election because teh overall result is in no doubt. Tories lose Big ! Labour win masses of seats !
There is absolutely no point in “tactical voting” since that result is in no doubt - but it gives us - the plebs - a chnace to vote exactly according to our own opinions - a vote for reform will not hurt oir help either of teh 2 main Parties - so we shall actually see just how those who understand this really feel about the “Uniparty” which teh 2 main "parties " have declined into !
Reform may only get a hand ful of seats
likely between 4 and 18 ? but they will come SECOND in many, many more and thsi will enable thiem to build a database of exactly who votes for them and where to concentrate their activities next time.
a quick 2 minute video - explains this ;
'https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xwkf9XAlfxI&list=TLPQMDMwNzIwMjQ5XdlNozsEsQ&index=9
and Rita Panahi with young Darren Grimes expands in their 4 minute video here
'https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjFK_shscjo&list=TLPQMDMwNzIwMjQ5XdlNozsEsQ&index=10
Of course the more seats Reform get the greater will be their influence to “Get heard” in Parliament - but really that doesn’t matter much - a strong Labour Govt will provide ample opportunity to really "Piss People off " especially in their stated headlong rush to “Net Zero” Richard Tice has already dropped the hint that Reform really know the Truth about “Global warming” was dropped I think in his Birminhgham speech - when he said something like “no amount of money will turn the sun off !”
If he knows That - he will also know that by 2028 (1 year before the next election, we shall be shivering and desperately trying to heat our houses with useless “green energy” at huge prices and also sufferring massive Food Shortages - Anyone hoping for a “decent summer” is likely to have to wait until 2054 to get one - then we shall revert to “global warming” until 2700 - no If’s and’s no but’s - we now know exactly what is going to happen and the more CO2 we pump into the atmosphere the better our crops will grow - the amount of CO2 will not make the slightest difference to temperature provided it remains abouve about 4 parts in 10,000 (which is where it is now )
A few years ago I had a biyt of a “Spat” with @tommor about this when he said he couldn’t be bothered to spend 3w hours on a wet Sunday afternoon researching this - he would “Rely on the Experts” - Ok valid point of view for some I guess - but now we must all have realised that there is something Political about the discussion and when the “Met” are telling us we have just had “the warmest spring since record began in 1884” when we have been wearing coats indoors and putting the heating on in May - clearly is insulting our intelligence !
Anyhow as I said we now Know exactly what the climate is going to do until the warming starts to revers again in 2700 ! - Clearly Richard Tice is well aware Oh and Here is a “quick” - well 1.5 hours 
video by a REAL EXPERT - Watch it or don’t but don’t cry when you have no heat or food in the middle of winter for the next 30 years ! - That will completely “wrong foot” the “net Zeroists” - just nicely in time for the next elections
Link is green writing
'https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgMK2QIw-YE
PS> Apologies for all the FAT FINGER mistakes - I really can’t be bothered to go back and fix them all ! 
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Has anyone seen the “boris” rescue videos ? - Apparently the fools think that “Boris” was held in high regard among the deplorables ! - Well some of you may remember that I started a thread on here many years ago in support of Boris ! - and he was successful in gaining the leadership. Then we voted for him as Nigel Farage stood hundreds of candidates aside to let him win the Election !
Then he proceded to Betray everyone of “working class” origins who wanted him to succeed.
When the Bolshevics instigated the Russian Revolution 100+ years ago the first thing Stalin (or was it Lenin ?) did was to exterminate the Bolshevics - they well understood that when you betray the principles of the “true believer” you make an enemy 100 times stronger than just your natural enemy !
YET THESE FOOLS DRAGGED “BORIS” into the public sphere to “bring back the Red Wall voters” !
Jeez - who are these dummies - they truly deserve the absolute kicking thwy are about to recieve !
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Best wishes from the colonies to all those voting in the UK Elections today… Hopefully you elect a Government that can restore some faith in the Political class…
The nations, not so blest as thee,
Must, in their turns, to tyrants fall;
While thou shalt flourish great and free,
The dread and envy of them all.
"Rule, Britannia! rule the waves… “Britons never will be slaves.”
Still a very poignant verse today…
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The new chancellor (finance minister) for UK quote today:
“Private-sector investment is the lifeblood of a successful economy. We need to unlock private-sector investment,”
Former UK PM Boris Johnson said ‘f… business’.
How things have turned - white is now black, red now blue
The way to unlock private sector (business) spending (investment) is to reduce tax & red tape, encourage consumer spending (reduce vat - i,e sales tax) keep rates low.
Long story short - never going to happen - except p’haps in the 60’s - 2060’s that is.
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@peterma Won’t see this post… This so called Guardian has me on ignore… Thank F"k…
Global Labor Government’s have no desire to unlock the private sector… They are all about Big Government… Big Tax… Big Public Spending…
The new chancellor (finance minister) for UK quote today: “Private-sector investment is the lifeblood of a successful economy. We need to unlock private-sector investment,”
Leftist Government meaning… We haven’t got much of our money left… So we are coming after yours… As I posted a few months ago in these threads…
There is not a Dollar/Pound of someone else’s that Labor does not want to spend…
As an example of how this works…The Australian Labor Government is flat-out funnelling Billions of our (Superannuation) pension funds into the so called Green Economy because it’s billions the Government just doesn’t have… Risking Australian’s compulsory pension savings into floored green energy policies that have been proven to fail…
If the Sun doesn’t shine… Or the Wind doesn’t blow… Millions will be without power…
The United Kingdom has just let the Wolf in the door… And with Keir Starmer’s highly publicised connections to the WEF…The three little pigs (England, Scotland and Ireland) are now in a fight for their lives…
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Aye, cannot remember why, older now and lots of water under my bridge.
Anyways, life is short and it’s never good to ignore anyone so apologies.
Happened to see your post by chance - never cld understand this left vs right thing but maybe it’s what we should believe.
Take care TWB 
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Oh - quick response to the ‘Ireland’ little pig - Ireland is not UK, only NI is - & yet so far as business is concerned remains ‘aloft’ from UK insofar as trade with EU & ROW is concerned.
WE are known in the int trade world as ‘XI’ meaning that I can import goods from Italy via Dublin with no trade barriers - if I’m GB then lots of red tape cpld with customs.
Whats’ known as a happy little pig.
Edit:
For guys reading - GB means Great Britain - i.e. Greater Britain which means the island of Britain - England/Scotland/Wales
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We’ve seen that many times before here in UK - It means - we’ll get "Consortiums of major companies to Build stuff - at “Cost plus” guaranteed by the Govt - and then those consortiums will charge YOU for using it ! " - Toll Roads, Power stations, Wind Farms, Solar panels, etc etc - hell the dumb “Public Servants” even sell their own town halls and office buildings, Hospitals etc at discounted prices- to “Funds” on “Leaseback” - at guaranteed inflation proofed annuel lease payments in perpetuity ! - Those payments themn become part of teh “NHS Budget” which means the NHS “Needs” more and more money every year BEFORE it even starts to do “NHS stuff” and it applies to EVERY “Public Service” department - therefore direcly on to our “Tax Bill”
The lefties have no interest in self employed or small enterprises (they are NOT what the Commies regard as “business”) except as people to accuse of “TAx Evasion” (and “Avoidance” which is perfectly legal and logical) (Stalin starved the self employed farmers they even had posters up saying “Do not eat your children” and markets openly sold human flesh)
It’s going to be a long hard 5 years ! - but at least we’ll have the pleasure of watching them tear themselves apart and some diversion as Nigel and his mates "take the p*ss!
Yes we kicked the shyte out of the “Conservatives” - but they still seem to think they have to be “centrist” (Way way left of any principle involving free speech or free choice) as George Galloway so aptly put it “Two cheeks of the same arse” !
But Reform got 5 and if we have ANY “Democracy” left after 5 years of David Lamy, Angela Raynor, Yvette Cooper et al - We’ll be ready to have another go at rebuilding the Uk and hopefully the decent common people will have had enough of being told that men can be women, 8 year old white boys are to blame for everything bad that ever happened in the world and - well you know well enough what I’m saying!
Sadly I don’t think they ever will - Remember the Neo-Marxists eventually gave up hope of a “Working man’s revolt” (and in those days Men still had Testosterone !) and switched their attention instead to firstly Women, then “Minoriies” to promote their foul doctrine !
Ah well - It’s a good job it’s only a game - be a B*tch if it was real ! 
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Interesting - I had the impression that you were in NI ! - not Eire.
We don’t need you to change the title - WE are GREAT BRITAIN !
If anyone reading this believes THAT ! - I have a Bridge to sell you ! 
:
Here in the UK - the cost of “Net ZERO” is liable to be £3, Trillion - that’s 3 million million. - Gross Domestic Product is 2.7 Trillion and 46% of that goes straight to the Parasites - so that means no income for anyone in the UK, wages , salaries, company profits, income from sales, interest on savings or profits from “the City” whatsoever for 2 entire years.
Even to achieve that by 2035 we would need to commandeer All the battery making capacity of the whole world for 10 years - and even then we would only get 26% of the energy we need!
Interestingly the Neo-Marxists say we are going to “achieve” that whole pointless exercise in 5 years - not 10 !
Interestingly our newly elected Neo-Marxists say we are going to achieve that whole pointless exercise in 5 years not !0
- VALENTINA ZHARKOVA - has a different view of the next 30 years !
Popcorn anyone ?
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Aye JRM drives around with rule Britannia blaring on his car radio - fat lot of good that did him.
Nah, not interested in buying - we are getting a new bridge in Warrenpoint to the Republic for free - being paid for by the Southern taxpayers out of that surplus 8bn Euros they just reported.
Therein lies the rub - we are UK yet for business we are both UK & EU
My driv lic say UK, passport says Ireland - best of both worlds - why not take advantage.
Our new SoS is Tony Benn’s son, remember him with his pipe? - he was labelled as lefty yet he was a cool operator - hope Hilary is a chip of the old block.
No problem - if you can “game” the system - why not ?
Yes I remember Tony Benn - He was a proper “Working man’s lefty” - Corbyn used to follow him around as his “Bag Carrier” if I remember rightly.
They may be “wrong” but at least they were conviction politicians and honest about their principles - unlike people like Blair and Starmer. - tho’ Corbyn got devious in his tactics later. - Neither of them were “Globalist” tho and both were completely anti uk joining the “EU” - so perhaps we should have listened more to them !
Aye - what I liked about him was he cldnt care less about the labels the press attached - he was ‘Christian Socialist’ yet wanted the CoE separated from politics.
He was a ‘cool kid’ mainly because he was an honest politician - a dying breed.