I can’t get over that neckline. The h&s looks like a monster on the daily. I think we will test that neckline one more time before shooting to 225. The test is now. We could be in for a BIG dip. The dip will recover but using margin wisely will ride you out into big profits and not to the poor house.
That’s the balance in my demo account. From $500k around the first week of June to over $1 million today.
I started that account as a test of rrram’s strategy. In the beginning & even along the way I did not pay a lot of attention to it. I didn’t trade off charts, indicators, candles, nothing … just everytime I saw her dip, I bought anywhere from 2-5 positions each position was 5 standard lots. Actually in the beginning I just bought 1 lot positions, when the account passed $700k, I went to 5 lot positions.
I set TP exits at anywhere from 5-30 pips for most of the orders and usually put no TP on the last one. At one point I had 5 x 5 lot orders that were over 400 pips down. Biggest dd was around $400k and since I don’t get how MT4 (ODL) computes margin, at one point I did sell off several positions at a loss so as not to mess up the margin. I didn’t keep track of actual margin use because I didn’t know how to read it in this account.
Often there were good runs and I forgot to trade in the demo because I was focused on the real account. In short, this one was done SO casually, no real focus, no real methodology except ‘buy the dips’. And yet…a double within 2 months. I wonder what could happen if there was focus & better planning :eek:
My spreadsheet says that $500k is the mnimum amount needed to trade 5 standard lots at a time. That means $50k for a mini account, 5 mini lots at a time, or $5k for a micro lot, 5 micros at a time.
Obviously, trading 1 lot at a time, you can divide the above numbers by 5.
But I found that trading multiple positions of 5 lots each, profits accumulated much faster, even when I cashed out at +5 or +10 which I often did. It was almost constant buying in groups of 2-5, then cashing out on any profit move, only holding one if I thought the entry price was pretty good.
Twice I had TMTH, once it caused the huge dd & I decided to let some go. The other time was yesterday. But when she came roaring back this morning, most TP’s were hit, pushing the balance over the $1 million. I still have some trades open “up there”, but I know they should close out positive next week.
I never shorted in this account and never traded anything but GY.
In the meantime my real acct is a disaster … down quite a bit in the same period of time. In that account, I trade other pairs and have often shorted the GY. To be fair, there was not enough in it initially to trade the way I traded the demo. I am pretty convinced that $5k is the minimun needed to trade this way with micros. $10k would be safer.
Anyway … I am impressed … a double of your money every 2 months ain’t a bad thing! For those who are blessed with enough funds to get started, I suggest starting a separate acct and give it a whirl.
The KEY to this is buying in batches & taking quick profits, even doing this very casually as I have … the results are … Wow 
BTW, $5k doubling every 2 months becomes $1,240,000.00 in 16 months
Not counting the IRS’ share :eek:
Where is the daily M2P chart?
Very impressive, thanks for the info. I do wish I had done this more carefully in my first account that got blown. I have started a new live account and although the first few weeks were very impressive it has since totally bombed (I still have my original investment, but have lost all my gains.) My demo account, however, is rockin’. Usual story.
I have a demo of $10k I am trading Elijah’s Guppy Lady in…and since last week I have had a 6% gain…and it is so effortless, no staying up all night (unless I want to have some fun!), no stress, no chart reading, no figuring it out what to trade, etc. etc. I know what you mean when you say if you had paid more attention to your demo you could have made more. I see that with my account as well.
I am thinking of opening a live account soon to trade this, but I want to master the spreadsheet. I want to be certain I understand where to stop buying down. Which is the most up to date spreadsheet and where is it? May I have it?
Anyway…I am pretty disappointed in my “real” trading these past months. I worked for two years perfecting all this and turned a $100k demo into $1.2 mil in five months…I thought I knew at least a little bit about what I was doing. But I got long on the pound and euro way too high and have held on to them all the way down. So I think I am screwed. I have faith though, that SOMETHING will happen! Maybe I will close all that on Sunday and start on Elijah’s method with what little I have left.
GOOD SHOW, 4XSTAR, thanks for sharing!!!
Invisible RipOff Service?
You are not a slave I assume and a natural man and henceforth would owe the IRS nothing.
I keep it at the traderstar dot com/excel-link.htm … bookmark that page. I will upload a new one today but the one there is also pretty recent.
(However the new one also has a section showing results from the NJ carry trade, assuming E’s information that margin used doubles every 21 days is correct)
Haught sent me a super-duper computerized excel-o-riffic version that draws on external information and can also fix dinner in its spare time
Only problem is, I can’t figure out how to make it work yet. When I do I will upload that one as well with instructions.
What I suggest you do … and what I plan to do too … is set up a separate account funded with $1k only, using 400:1 leverage. You can only trade one micro lot at a time, opening 2-4 positions for every trade with a maximum of 10 open positions. That would allow for a 500 pip dd. I was never more than 400 pips underwater & doubt that would happen with the kind of guppy savvy we are accumulating here,
Worst case, if it did, you start selling your biggest losers to protect margin.
The reason I suggest a $1k account is simply that when you start dealing with real money, as we all know well, ‘something’ changes … and what was ridiculously easy in a demo acct suddenly doesn’t seem to work as well … in reality it is we that are not working well because the ol’ F & G** words are back in the picture.
Sounds like for you $1k is just play money … but it [I]is[/I] real money … so start with that and see if you can double it within 2 months. If you do, top it up to $5 k, increase trade size to 5 micros per position and double that. When that happens, you can top it to whatever you want because at this point you should be comfortable doing this with real money…
I plan to do the same thing … not sure where I will get the initial $1k but maybe craigslist or Ebay can help.
I will put it in a separate account, that is very important & play it exactly as I did the demo. When that doubles, then I show my kids the results & I am sure they will be falling all over themselves to jointly fund the $5k account.
My goal is just to manage & grow their money anyway, taking a bit for myself to live on. I am almost there
And, Elijah I won’t forget the 10% off the top every month 
**Fear and Greed :eek:
Just so you know: private messages don’t begin until 50 posts accumulated.
Late Friday doldrums are officially on, but price is not coincidentally stalling below 214.88: it is the 78.6% fib retracement for the most recent swing high to the subsequent swing low (215.86-211.63). This level was important in the early mornings of 07/23 and 07/24, as well, and is once again showing itself as an engagement line now.
Thanks very much for the info. on 50 messages before using private messaging.
I didn’t realise this and i expect a few others didn’t - thanks Andrew.
cheers,
i also want to join… can you tell me how to join?
This is going to affect our trading! This is going to change the world as we know it. I am VERY disturbed by this. My dad emailed this to me and has watched this video and sent it to me, because
- I am in the mortgage industry
- I trade currency
The USGOV has LOST ITS COLLECTIVE MIND!
Ron Paul on the Housing Bill 7/23/08 - “The Mother of All Bailouts” [video]
I commend Dr Ron Paul for his dedication to the truth.
He is truly a great man. He would have had a chance against obama to win.
I can tell you mccain doesnt haVE A SNOBALLS CHANCE IN HELL of winning,
And if anyone really thinks mccain will win, put your money where your mouth is. I can locate millions of dollars for this bet. SO if anyone wants to bet on the presidential winner and wants to bet on mccain contact me so we can bet on this :). I warn you though you might as well give me your money now.
Despite the crooked polls, this electionis likely to be a landslide much like when Ronald Reagan got in. the media can continue to get FUDD in, but their efforts are futile. I am not for Obama, I am for Ron Paul who recently dropped out of the race. But I sure am for Obama OVER FUDD, I mean mccain
why when I see mccain do I think of Elmer Fudd?
What puzzles me is, if I had … or better, [I]when[/I] I have… 1/3 the intuitive & otherwise knowledge about the guppys movements that Elijah has, you can bet I would not want to be thinking about anything else … especially nebulous ‘investment’ programs or even making service calls. Why not just sit back & trade the guppy??? There were well over 1000 pips this week alone!
Sell the NJ … holding it is like shorting the guppy, you are diffusing the energy again. You know how to trade it better than anyone else I have seen, your calls are usually dead on, and rarely if ever misleading. Geez … trade the guppy man, forget NJ’s and P2Ps … maybe you have to make some service calls for the next few weeks but by then you should be pulling in thousands a week with GY even in a mini account … why on earth not just do that???
That’s what I plan to do … and your insight has helped tremendously! Now turn the light on yourself
yikes…getting intense
Mmmm … beginning to sound like Alex Jones (google him if you don’t know)
And I like Alex, very interesting to listen to … not sure how much of what he says I believe, but never dull
I did not use the word “solicitation” according to some juridical rendering of “solicitation” that connotes a criminal offense for which I have citations of legal precedent or case law. I am using it as the typical dictionary defines it. There’s no intimation of criminal activity in what I’ve said whatsoever, nor did I level an accusation against anyone.
To the point, this forum is no more a place to solicit (301 Moved Permanently) indications of interest/participation/membership from others for P2P than it is to solicit the purchase of candy bars for some kid’s school fundraiser; nor a place to discuss “conspiracy theories” (whether they are truly conspiracy theories or not is beside the point), or to discuss religious views at length. I am not trying to squelch anyone’s liberty to speak as they wish; just pointing out what ought to be self-evident. It is a forum for discussion of forex - nothing more or less. So, a friendly, fraternal appeal among traders to remain on topic and not drift into tangential, divisive territory. That’s all on this issue from me.
30M chart, normally I dont use the 30. But When I looked at longer TFs it looked rather heavy like it wanted to fall again. Take a look at the 30 the stoch is still up there with the RSI but the macd normally a trailing indicator has alreayd crossed down 3 bars ago. Suffice to say it is almost a sure thing that guppy will fall from here.
I woke up to a dream this morning of her falling from current levels, only to realize after waking up it wasnt a trading day and she couldnt be falling.
I suspect a move back down to 212.42. She seems very buoyant so who knows maybe 213.80 will hold as support, but the most likely scenario is a move back down to 212.42 before moving another leg up or at least before testing 216 again.
Chart17.zip (100 KB)
[B]“Thought is action in rehearsal.”[/B]
Sigmund Freud
Let us not forget that 217.39 is the 161.8% fib level.
It is possible though not probable from here she could run right up and past 216 and test 217.39. She is going to test 217.39 it is just a matter of how soon. I expect before the week is over. I expect a wild swinging week ahead.
Again notice on the 30M the other fib levels lower we have talked about these. Look back on the chart to the last time it hit 211.57 a fib level to the pip 2 times a long time apart. We could get back there and spike to it and run up wildy after that. Study her moves know her behavior, ride up with her.
And trending down
[B]“He is rich or poor according to what he is, not according to what he has.”[/B]
Henry Ward Beecher
Looks like only a small gap so far, like the yen gained slightly over the weekend.