GBP/JPY Equity Building Profitable trading strategies

One of my buy limits just got hit. Which obviously means that I’m down on pips…but for some reason for the first time, I just smiled and actually almost it went down to hit another buy limit (more lost unrealized pips)!!! hahahaha.

Looks like we are heading back up on the 6min. If we can hold 206 for a time I will be ok with buying another around there and then down into 205.79.

I have 2 now @ 206.43 and 206.29

A famous man named Robert K. once said something like,
the habits of the rich and the poor are the same the ONLY difference is their attitude about money or what they think about money.

Make sure you have them spaced at least 20 or 30 pips apart initially
until you (we) are sure what range we are going to set into.

Always try to avoid Getting Too Many Too High (TMTH). Patience is key. You dont want your orders spaced 10 pips apart UNLESS you are at the bottom or already way down in a continued run down. When she runs down NEVER underestimate the force of her downward fury. You must be able to sustain a 1000 pip run down. If you have order spread across 1000 pips
you dont want the orders concentrated NEAR the TOP. the more concentrated NEAR the bottom they are the much better off your position will be in the long run.

With practice you will get a real feel for when it is going to dip down. That’s all it ever does is dip down and rebound up. The idea is too have the most orders closer together near the bottom. Practice comes with trading a DEMO account.

When Asia Comes in I bet we get some nice upward movement for the first
144 minutes or so.

I am expecting some down overnight particularly between 2-5AM EDT.
I expect 205 to hold as hard support and am buying down to there conservatively. Below there my order spacing will decrease.
If 205 doesn’t hold 204.10 should at which time I would have over 10 orders probably. Below that is 203.35 then 202.60, the same level that held before if you recall. I seriously doubt we will go anywhere near that low overnight but those are the levels. we are holding 206 nicely. My upward target is 209.

Thursdays are generally one of the largest range days and 350 is nothing sometimes you can see 500-700 on a trhursday! All I can say is they come and go, and if you look back in posts, Haven’t I been saying over and over several times I was expecting a big leg up, If I said it was going to happen on thursday it would not happen until friday or something but I prefer to be vague so there can be a more general interpretation and no one person or group or persons can read it and play against it :slight_smile:

We are too small. So none of you go out there and start killing them for 2mil a week eh?

Focus on what you are wanting. Yes never under estimate the downward fury of GJ. Stick with consistant unit sizes for all trades, I overdid it with my margin and maybe even got greedy as my account was about 6000 pips or something at $1 a pip on a 10K account. I was doing all sorts of clowning around and maybe even getting arrogant. After you have 600 RT trades and basically yield 100% trading ratio, you can tend to get even ****y
regardless of what you are trading with. The confidence factor is crazy with this and as you know as your confidence hits 100% after 600 trades you get a little sloopy and lazy. I know I did. I knew I was actually in trouble margin wise and way beyond what was acceptable but I kept buying and scalping and even worse. I went to bed with my margin in trouble knowing we were going to have at least some sort of slight run down.
It turned out to be a crazy run down and I woke up to getting sold out.
It has happened to me 3 times this year where I lost significant money. The first time I was still pretty new with this system and had broker troubles and left while I was in trouble to do a service call. The other time it was only $2000 on forex.com acct, it was ****y grudge trading, using an old method of mine similar to this of averageing down and then selling them all at once when you get up. Trouble is you normally cut your profits short and let your losses averaging down run. SO overall this year I am still several thousand down (7K at least). But I have only been trading this system since FF scalpers thread, all my posts are there. SO each time I have learned valuable lessons to make me better smarter faster next time.

Your account doesn’t disappear if you are a bit more disciplined, and NEVER allow your broker to sell you out. Of all the planning and figuring you always have to be aware of how far can can go down before getting sold out.
A wise one stops buying way in advance of exceeding the amount of margin that is safest. The higher the margin you use the riskier this becomes.
Because obviously at 100% you are out. I never intend on getting sold out again. I don’t think about getting sold out. I do act now more in a way which limits my risk. And each time I lose something I get smarter or perfect the system more. NO system is perfect but this is the closest I have come.
My uncle is claiming 98% now and is now thinking he has implemented the keys to assure him 100%.

HE sees patterns like I do. And sent me some chart showing 3 days or more of CAD/JPY basically showing that normally certain markets trade certain ways and often at certain times. It is no secret that momentum has a lot to do with it. And momentum is generally higher in the first 144 minutes of every session. Why do You think I say GJ likes to run down every night in the 2-5AM EDT, it just so happens I think that this time coincides with the first 144 minutes of London open when momentum will be the greatest
and hence price will generally move more and much faster, and for whatever reason I notice that GJ tends to run dwon during that time because it is the first 144 minutes of london and when london starts trading often GBP runs down, Why? I do not know, but I see it often and sometimes can bank on it.

The bottom can never really fall out, it can only go down so much,
it is the big boys running it down eating everyones SL orders.
Then after it runs down it shoots up. I forgot at what price I got wiped out at last time. But I know it is WAY down from where we are now,
and had I held on and more conservatively and smartly managed my margin I would have made it through and would have bagged a crapload of pips on the way up. Maybe we need to use even less margin and space orders even further. Or wait longer to get in and get in lower. Today I missed a boatload of pips after 205.20. I got some but not anywhere near what I would like to have bagged.

You sure hadless experience than I did. But I tried to share it the most exact as I used it. I am going to forget about the losses and focus on building my old account back up that was at about 7K until it got sold out on 3/16. And so far so good. I am going to take a little more time I guess
and trade with less total lots thus keeping the used margin lower.
I am going to count on running down 350-500 and not going over 25% that way if it runs down another 500 I shouldnt be dead. I tried the hedge thing
today and it didnt work out. I don’t know if I am going to mess with those shorts anymore the interest cost is huge. And when GJ explodes like today 350 pips and youa re short with no SL watch out! I am ok holding pound long for months or longer if I have too. I would rather do this than lose it and having money in your forex account is money in the bank in GBP rather than USD which is a much safer in the long run, so even if you have to invest
more money in your forex account that is better than getting sold out.
I may be very good at this but am not by any means near perfect.

And if anyone should know about breaking the rules causing you to have to pay heavily, I Should!

Thats funny because weather or not it is proved or not, I know it is the truth.
I have the benefit of many wise men in my life.

In fact I have to call one right now, he is 87 or something,
I gain in leaps and bounds gazing into the minds of very old people
and babies.

Price bounced off of the 1.618% Fib extension @ 206.52 (201.94-204.78) - pretty textbook rejection at that level, holding at least for the moment. I flipped my short around this morning based off a few technical criteria to take in quite a bit of the run, but I’m out at that level. Not trying to throw water on upward momentum (not that my post could do that, in any case), but figured knowing that level and why it’s important could only help.

Why 144 minutes (as opposed to, say, 145)? Because it’s Fib series? That broaches a much larger topic if so.

"Change your thoughts, change your life."
James Allen

From the babypips random message at the bottom of each forum page.

just that normally it is at least 2 (120min) hours and could approach 3 hours (180min) and 144 was somehwere in between. 12x12 and fib whatever isnt really that significant. Just like if I use 20 50 for smas or 21 34 and 55 instead really isnt much different. For me many of these numbers however derived which are unpsychological are the ones I lean to instead of more common psychological numbers however significant, I like to lean away from.

I cannot dent the significance of the psychological whole numbers like 203.00 204.00 and so onlike that. Much of trading is psychological and I try to go the opposite way of the masses and what is fundemantally known even though I often also consult those things as another view of the possibilies.

Successful trading requires more than skillful use of indicators and any time I can do anything to deviate from the crowd I am often better off.
Trading GJ for me is more like a long game of chess. Sometimes she beats me and ocassionally even hard but the more I trade it the better I become at it and the more consistantly I beat her on a constant & steady basis

I will be the last one to tell anyone fib numbers don’t work,
regardless the .50s are huge numbers in GJ especially I think
so 206.50 is often normally going to cause resistance as if there is a line already drawn there. It was sure looking short at 206 too and I got short there and lost 30 pips If I held it all day I may have been able to get 10 pips out of it. I was just playing around testing the hedge button.
normally I never go short GJ, ever.

I also find SMA’s just as good or better than fib numbers sometimes,
and if I dont draw those lines she wont see them! :slight_smile:

I think we are in for a shocker here, And this number isn’t going to be as bad as everyone expects. Watch for a small run down 30-50 pips, then when that wears off I expect a strong early day for GJ and an early weak
(low momentum) close.

I will be shearing 13 alpacas over the weekend if anyone wants to stop by.
A days work can be traded for some runs around the track to get the adrenalin pumping again.

That sounds like fun … and I am not that far away :cool:
Can’t do it this weekend tho … but let me know when there’s more farm work to be done… or if there are strawberries to pick :smiley:

There was a little dip lower there briefly. I’ve got 10 lots at this point and am at 5% margin useage.

I am trying to get more long at 204.99 204.89 and 204.69 and so on down.
I have eliminated some of my closer spaced orders in case we get a run down into 204 around the home sales.

I do not want to use too much margin. I didn’t really get many pips overnight as it was mostly rangebound right on 206 until 2:42 am at which time we had that run down to 5:42 am of about 130 pips as I suggested last night. I am loaded up on orders at this point waiting to rebound up,
or continued down so I can buy more longs cheaper.

Home sales are slightly down from previously and the new news release,
came out as I expected, HIGHER than what others expected. SO we got a short run up and now we should be all clear for a strong bullish GJ day,
tapering off into an early close as traders will be going home early.

Another question for you that I was thinking of, which is (or would be) probably one of the most frequently asked questions about this method:

After pipsquito’s experience a number of pages back, you mentioned in one place that long orders should be distributed between a high and a low, but that the concentration of orders should be bottom-heavy.

This makes good sense, of course, because you’re total basis is lower as a result; but it also begs the question:

How do you know where “low” is going to be? “Lower” is easy enough: 204.99 is “lower” than 205.00; but 204.99 isn’t low on a decline from 205.50 to 202. If the idea is to buy “low”, there has to be some way to gauge the extent of a decline; otherwise one would simply be pulling the old “it just [I]can’t[/I] go any lower than this” rationalization - which we all know is a load of garbage because any pair, and this one foremost, can do whatever it wants and doesn’t respect the losing trader’s idea of a “reasonable” move against them. I know you use economic releases - and perhaps SMAs - to get a general idea of where a bottom might be, but what else do you do to ensure the concentration of orders is “low” and not just “lower”?

Btw: be wary of a close on H1 that holds below 204.64. :wink:

I have been scalping a few here and there and getting in long lower. margin is exactly 7.0% at 204.77. with 12 lots.

THis stagnating around 204.80 is odd. I would have thought after that housing report we would have contiuned in a gradual uptrend for the rest of the day.

But we have the 3 day weekend and maybe many traders don’t want to get in today as they wouldn’t want to sit for 3 days with the markets closed w/ open positions.

We are OK sitting 3 days with our longs, as if it goes down lower that is ok as we can get more longs cheaper and be in a better position for the ride back up. And most importantly wee don’t have to worry about someone hunting our stop loss orders.

I don’t care what any broker will tell you that they don’t hunt stop losses.
That is BS. I have years of FILLED stop loss orders! and I have SL orders filled at one price to the pip and then the market reverses back up with a fury. Most brokers hunt stop losses for a living. No different than…
most politicians lie and steal from us, despite what they will admit.
But that is OK, those that lie and steal SHALL be cut off, and those they lie to and steal from will NOT be punished for the actions of the lieing theives.

Pipsquito was doing multiple units and had THTM and had way exceeded safe margin. You have to figure that at any given time GJ can easily fall 700-1000 pips. Part of what I do is get in with higher losing longs and hold them for interest. Then I scalp in range and do best when we are rangebound,
or after a quick run down and a long run back up.

I use support and resistance, psychological numbers, I casuyally monitor GU and UJ and anything related to any of these three pairs. I use PSAR and dojis to show me reversals. I am always trying to sell off longs for small profits and rebuy long lower when I am sitting here and see the market turning.
I use RSI and momentum. Stochastic RSI, several fast and slower stochastics with LT and ST settings. I also like the stochastic momentum
give me a nive momentum wave.

I am not sure how I see these levels, only occasionally do I look at fibinocci,
it is as if I do it in my mind and more heavily rely on sma’s and psychological numbers than fib’s.

I also am unsure of how I gauge the distance I expect a downward trend to continue before reversing. SOmetimes I even surpsie myself predicting GJ.
AFter years of follwing GJ, you just get a feel for it or something.

The mentality here is different than regular trading. HEre I am counting on 700-1000 pip moves being possible and counting on drawndown.
Obviously the more times price bounces off a level weather high or low the stronger that point is I think. Where the big swings come is with big momentum traders entering the market as they make it move fast and those little traders sitting and watching see the quick movement get a feeling or something then jump suddenly in.

As you bounce off a bottom several times you know it is stronger and spacing then should be like 10 pips. But if it keeps making a little bit lower low. YOu have to scalp them for whatever you canget sell your one long and get in lower each time and sell it agin for whatr you can get and get in lower again. All the while you are slowly building equity.