Ive got a 233 sma at 204.30 some fib I recall of the top of my head at 204.35
we will see. But in any event I am good on margin and can sustain even another 700 pips down from here without getting sold out, without adding any more money to my margin.
I have about 17 full lot positions in my DEMO account (!) and at the moment am down about $17k there. I will be eager to see what interest I am credited on Tuesday. BTW is Monday a holiday for all forex or just US market?
Jebatfx in the Currency Pairs section has a thread on GBP-JPY where he posts these insanely complicated charts, but I am learning to read them and must admit he often nails the turning points for this pair ⌠for example earlier today he gave 203.17as its low of wave c or x or iv or whatever ⌠and it went to 203.14 & screeched to a halt. From here it is supposed to go up again to complete Wave Whatever with one of 3 upside targets possible.
What I am wondering is ⌠there are various ways of identifyinig probably bottoms or tops and while this pair is certainly capable of ignoring them completely, still, calculating these probable turnaround areas will most likely put you within 100-200 pips at worst ⌠so why start buying all the way down? why not wait for the next probable bottom, start buying there, if it falls more, keep buying as usual but you wonât be riding down a possible 1000 pip move âŚ
Probably you will say ⌠because that way you may not be holding them long enough to collect the interest? Interest is credited every night you hold the pair?
I think as I type this I am figuring it out, interest is your cash flow while your equity decreases but you know it is coming back, just not when.
It goes counter to the way we usually trade, so I guess it will just take practice in the demo to watch it unfold in real time. Iâm looking forward to next week to see how my 17 long lots go :-)) My demo account has $500k in it so I should be ok 
I only have 13 lots now I scalped a few more and it didnt get down enough for me to get another. I am at a confortable 7% margin used or something.
I was gone all afternoon and as I figured price wound down, but I was alittle surprised we didnt get more up from that housing number. Instead we only got a little up then went down and basically ranged. I am of course still bullish for next week. I donât know when my broker is reopening but I expect sunday at 4PM, I think only the regular markets are closed like NYSE CBOT and so on. Your interest should be credited at 5PM but my broker goes home at 430 so it doesnât get credited until next week. Todays lots held over night are not considered until 2 trading days ahead, so wednesday ior something is the actual date for todays trades carried over 5pm I think. Elliot waves are one theory. I always found them complicated and not always reliable. Todd on Forex.com uses them, strategy of the day or something. I used to follow those, he is frequently right and is a good trader and I have learned things from him. Buit Elliot wwaves isnât my style.
Thats the thing with GJ 
You never really know where the bottom is. And like when we ran up 350 pips
there wasnt any bottom there really. And thats what I was saying before,
you try to concentrate your orders closer to the bottom. Thats why at the top you space them out higher. I have like 3 in the 206âs 9 in the 205âs and one in the 204âs. I may have too many in the 205âs but I thought 205 was going to hold.
Interest is paid daily, 7 days a week. Some brokers pay it by lowering your basis on your trades, which I donât think I like.
I am not trying to hold them long I am trying to scalp them for a profit.
IF I have to hold them long I can and will hold them for months and have.
It is like money in the bank even if it is still scaling down because all the while I am scalping in range for pips again slowly building my equity. Every day interest is credited my equity increases slightly.
Your equity is mainly built by GJ move up and down in range and hitting your TPâ;s, then you rebuy at the same price or lower, then when it goes up again you sell that ONE lot. Then you buy another lot at the same price or LOWER.
I call this scalping in range.
GJ has 3 movemments DOWN, UP ande SIDEWAYS (rangy up and down like a yo-yo in a fairly small range). Sideways is where I get them. Everytime it goes down I buy then it goes up and I sell then it goes down and I buy and keep repeating the process. SOmetimes I take 30-40 pips but often I take 5-10 pips and sometimes I TAKE ONE PIP! If the fast stochastics 5,3,3, on the 2 min chart is peeged on top and getting ready to come down. This tool is very useful when it is in this sideways movement.
GJ has been like a juggernaut lately.
I am ooking forward to a profitable week next week.
TRY to monitor your %age of margin used!
You will see as it develops. But at this point if you are using very low %age of your margin. like 1-3% you should be able to space your orders 10 pips apart now going down. I do not think we are going to go much lower before we rebound back up and blow out of this range. Set your TPâs for 21-41 pips
or heck let a few ride and set TPâs at 100 or something.
The idea is to try new things and learn in demo as to how this all works.
Thanks for your replies earlier, rrram2 - you do seem to have a plausible answer question that comes your way, and I can tell this isnât a fly-by-night strategy, but something you really have commitment to and care about honing. 
4xStarâs questions overlapped some with my own, and they were partially answered. You do consult information other than economic releases and price to forecast the Guppyâs direction. The hangup though, is this:
âYou never really know where the bottom isâ - thatâs true of any pair. Calling a bottom is a game of probability in which you cannot maintain a value of 1. Certainty begins to disintegrate immediately. So you do ânever really knowâ. But thatâs okay, because you donât need to really know, just âkind ofâ - i.e. know probabilistically. If my running sample size maintains a probability of .51 (or even less, if sound money management is in play) for playing short-term tops and bottoms (and by that I mean zones, not on-the-pip levels) then I will do well.
For example: a descending triangle completed formation on the M15 a few hours before the UKâs MPC minutes came out. Price failed to break 202.60, as it had after no less than 10 touches off that level over the preceding 36 hours. When that didnât materialize, one knew a lower-probability bullish reversal might be in play. That was confirmed before the MPC. So, anyone couldâve rode that up from the mid-203s with a bit of detective work. But, a fib study mentioned before did show that 206.52 (+/- a couple pips) was the 1.618% extension level for that move up, which is a key reversal level. There was a very well-attested likelihood of a decline from there; but to where? Quite a few things pointed to 204.14 as support - Fib fan, (Alan) Andrewâs median line, even the 144 EMA did a fairly good job calling it (always needs confirmation on the following candle after the initial cross).
Every level and every study suggesting S or R there is conjectural to some degree - weâre [I]speculators[/I], after all. The point, though, is respect for these levels and forecasting off them - while allowing for a margin of error inherent in their probabilistic function - or of any other indicators or studies that do the job can help one arrive at the âhighâ and the âlowâ rather than buying where youâre likely to sustain some significant losses pip-wise. The interest gained by buying @ 205 today, for example, rather than waiting until 204.14 very shortly thereafter is all but non-existent, with the unrealized loss on pips far outweighing the benefit. Assuming things do swing around (the capstone assumption of the strategy), buying @ 206, 205, etc. will make no difference because the loss stays on paper; but why not place buy limits more strategically, rather than strafing price all the way down?
Submitted respectfully!
Indeed.
This is the part that doesnât seem to fit yet, although overall I love the concept. Unless you have a large reserve of money to top up your account âjust in caseâ ⌠there is risk of an account blow-out at any time.
Although rrram did say he would hold âfor monthsâ if necessary ⌠I think that is what would stop the average trader. Unless ⌠you start with a $1k micro account, parlay it up ⌠and then use it only for that purpose ⌠so even if you reach $50k in account value and you lose it all ⌠you have really only lost your $1k. And if, when the account doubled back in the beginnning, you took back your initial $1k deposit and let it run from there, then technically you have lost nothing.
Psychologically yes, technically no
This is one helluva strategy, I do see its merit, but ⌠I canât help feeling there is a piece to the puzzle still missing.
I am still pretty bullish and as always I know price will return to new highs above my highest order.
The last cycle through I sold my top long at 205.20, youâd say I missed a few pips and could have held out into the 206.50âs.
I got some higher this time around but my account is up 66% in 2 weeks.
I have a little more margin available and if I need to dump in some more quick money via credit card I can. I am playing at a level lower than I like as my time is more valuable than $300 a week to play this GJ game.
But part of this was as I hope I said before to show you can start from almost nothing so you cant use that money excuse. I started this time with $640.
I donât know what secret I am leaving out. But maybe Todd or some others that have been doing this longer can pin point.
You are scalping every change you get ANY time you are watching GJtrade.
I am. I always sell for a profit and buy again at the same price or lower.
I guess in a way, I used to think of it as a cycle. If I get long at a significant price like 206.50 eventhopugh it was clearly the top.
You know for pretty certain that GJ will come back up at some point in the future and blow through 206.50 like it wasnât there.
And everyt ime I do this I think of it as completeing a cycle.
Meaning all my longs get sold for a profit and I get flat and have no open orders and all my money is banked and 100% of my orders yielded a profit.
I have completed so many cycles that I have lost count. But the first time I did it I didnt think of it as a cycle. Now I have done it over 10 times. In the process of learning and developmwent I learned some valuable lessons that cost me money.
I am open for suggestions and this is an open forum and I think of this thread as a master mind group and anyone who wants to contribute and suggest
more strategic buy entry levels, I am all ears. Part of this system is generous to others whose money I am taking. Where I make 200 tardes a week for 2000 pips, I could have made more and spent more time analyzing
and doing more swing trading. And what I guess we should do is get batter fatser and smarter. And perhaps we should obviously adust our trading so when the market is on a breakout we are long from one place and we are holding it open to get max profits even if we sell half at breakeven and hold half with a trailing stop. BEcause ideally in a rangy market I make more than a breakout with this style. But with this system regardless of WHAT the market is and what price is doing I will make a profit. It is as if When I get long with my first long in a cycle that price is obligated to come back,
we do not know when, just that it is extremely probable if not for sure that it will. It is like an elevator. Even in the sears tower there are only so many floors and the elevator car stops at all of them eventually and always returns to every floor it has been to before all year longâŚ
I wish I knew really why this works. It is like all I did was change my mind about GJ and GJ changed. Years ago GJ used to rape me regularly, until I gave it up.
The initial idea is that, if I have lots 10 per 100 pips every hundred pips for 500 pips, yes I have drawdown but this way I am systematically scalping them and I will never accept a loss. And eventually I get them.
When you get sold out the losses are higher but after you get sold out once, you learn some of the biggest lessons in your life about forex.
SO THIS IS BEST DONE ON A DEMO ACCOUNT. The whole idea is bigger.
We are playing the huge range and if we always wait for it to get down, it will never get down. The thing is I trade every trading hour per week.
I enter the market at ANY time the market is open. Then I fill in orders going down and walk away. Before I place those orders going down I analyze all sorts of things to determine how far she will go before she returns and blows through my highest order. Thatâs the thing I dont know. NOR do I need to know because it doesnt matter. WHereever the bottom is! I will have orders.
Sometimes I get stuck holding higher longs but since they are spaced wide, I hold them and collect interest, which like I said 13 weeks is 100% of the money you have invested. I prefer in and out and that is the objective.
Scalp them and bag pips on as many orders as I can. But key is the 100% profit ratio and NO STOP LOSS ORDERS so this is why you need to be spaced way down. It is like a marker on a GPS when you buy an order long.
YOU intentd on price moving back to there and past to your next marker up.
I donât know how to tell you but its 99% true, a theif always returns to the scene of the crime. WHy is this? I donât know. I also donât know why GJ
always returns to prices it has been at before.
So SOmeone asked me well GJ never returned to 251. NOT YET BUT I think it WILL! As to when I dont know.
It goes along the lines of everything returns to its original source, and that GJ price always makes a circle, it has to come back around. This is just a theory and I am not interested in back testing anything as that proves nothing more than the lieklyhood that something may or may not happen in the future.
I am always interested in NOW. And when price is moving down I am assured that it will retrace back up most if not all.
Excellent post rrram2 & it shows you are thinking as you go, not just pretending to know every answer as some on this forum seem to think they do
I am demo-ing this on an account with $500k credit ⌠this makes it more fun as the numbers are so huge. And if it works, I want to start with a $700 micro with another $500 in reserve to top it up if necessary ⌠and see if I can parlay. If that works, then we had all better move to an underground discussion area because we will have found the holy grail lol.
(cue X files themeâŚ)
Back to the present: I get the whole cycle thing and I think that is a good way to think about it. But within the cycles there has to be a bigger picture that can tell you when to enter a cycle. Obviously you would not have wanted to start trading this way the day G-Y hit 251.09. Or the day it hit 239.69, the high before the big drop in October, or when it hit 217.13, last high before big drop in February. If you look on a weekly chart you can see clearly how you could have bought âall the way downâ then it returned to former highs, you cash in and do it again ⌠but on the 3 occasions mentioned above, it would have gotten away from you. There would have to be some kind of rule in place that tells you âgame over for nowâ and get out instead of sustaining a 6000 pip drop. I wonder if knowledge of elliott waves would help with this? Maybe not, because those waves are also all about cycling ⌠not dropping.
From Jan 2001 to April 2006, now that was cycling ⌠trending slightly higher but basically up & down, up & down. This system would have made millions.
Then from about April 06 to July 07 it went parabolic up, the right direction so still money made, not as much I would think as when it actually cycles.
Since July 07, its direction is down, it is under its 200 ma on weekly, monthly & daily, in fact it is back to its last consolidation level before the breakout in April 06. So⌠we may not have to worry about this right now. It looks to me like we may be entering another consolidation (aka cycling) phase and that is just what we want. May it continue until at least 2013
Any any given time that the market is open GJ can go up or down, sometimes it is obvious which way it is going and other times it is not.
ANd even when it is obvious which way it is going you still never know when it is going to stop and reverse.
Instead of the typical trading scheme where the so called smart experienced trader takes his âfiletâ out of the middle of the move and doenât even try to pick anywhere near the top or bottom.
I try to pick the top and bottom. And often my bottom holds and often it goes down to another bottom. Only one time was I caught real bad, On march 16 or 17th. When it made WAY to many bottoms and kept falling.
It fell basically from 214 to 192.60 in 2 weeks! Thats 2200 pips. For the two weeks before that it was perfect for this trading style. And had I managed my margin better and did NOT underestimate GJâs downward possibilities. I wasnât in at 214 but I know I had some in the 204âs and 207âs so 1200 pips wiped me out as I loaded up too much when I was certain that we were at the bottom.
So instead of sitting on the sidelines I get in with one no matter where price is and scalp all I can after that. While estimate the downward possibilities.
I expect it to hold but I only have 2 orders in the 204 and only looking to get 2 more in the 204âs in case we break below 204 which I doubt (but this is certainly possible overnight (between 2-5am EDT).
The longer term charts sure look more likely to support an increase in price on the 240 and 60. I have a few orders in and I expect volumne to be light overnight and through tomorrow. This could make for some easy money with some big swings. prime for scalping in range.
Bottom held overnight. I only picked up small pips. No news today to move the market. I think today will be a BIG day for us, pip wise, as I expect lows of low volumne swings. BUy at the bottoms and sell on the way back up for the retrace.
Tomorrow, Tuesday NEW home sales are out at 10am EDT. Previous is 562K expected is 522K. I expect we will be lower than previous BUT higher than what is expected. SO this should send GJ for a short burst up before retracing down, then back up again.
Today though I expect to make a killing scalping, price means very little today and tomorrow it should come back into some legs up as USD recovers against JPY.
Ok, I checked back to that period ⌠and I think I see what I was looking for. The thing is, you could spend weeks parlaying a small account into a huge one, but lose it all back in one 2 week period like that in March. That is no fun, even if you have reserve funds to start again, which many do not.
So, there should be a signal that says âbailâ. In the period you mentioned, you could draw a fib from a prev swing high (Feb 14) and low (Feb 7). On March 2, price broke that low and fell a couple of hundred pips, but then went into another consolidation phase ⌠this was the moment to keep playing, but watch carefully. Price tested twice the fib extension from its bottom ⌠when it tested and broke that extension downward on the 3rd test, that would be (for me) a clear signal to bail, cut losses right there & live to play again. Price was around 203.50, could have saved a further 1300 point drop and account wipe-out.
Of course you invented (or discovered) this rrram2, so I am not trying to convince you to play it any other way than what you are doing. I am just typing out loud so to speak, trying to figure out how to make this function more safely when there are no reserves to keep topping up account or when you donât fancy starting over again.
So I have come up with 2 modifications that would make it safer for me⌠1 is to watch for price to be consolidating (or cycling) within a trading range. Then draw horizontal lines or fib lines connecting top and bottom of trading range. Check also for prev lows going back months or even years. Prev highs are not important. If price drops below the bottom line, be on the alert, maybe lighten up on longs at the top of the range. If price drops to first fib extension below low and holds, buy more, but be alert. Ditto for 2nd test ⌠still money to be made here. But if it fails that fib extension, cut all losses immediately & stay alive. 
It is a little boring here in this tight range I was expecting quite a bit more manipulation from some wanna be big players, SO I could take their money, since they are giving it away on this wonderful holiday.
As long as I take money from folks who donât need it and help those in need,
my ability to make a continual profit will be never ending.
It is the thoughts in your head that literally produce your reality.
Today monitor your thoughts and see if you can detect some stinkinâ thinkinâ,
as such thinking will cost you happiness.
Happiness IS bagging pips on GJ, when the markets are dead.
I love that UK holidayâŚSpring Bank Holiday HAHAHAHA!
And now in the USA we have a tax holiday for a week or more so we can all run out and buy supplies to help us in the event or tormenting wheather.
The wise man monitors his thinking and chases the storms away.
I am a life expert and I can tell you for certain that no storm comes down and wipes out a just man (unless he falls prey to stinkin thinkin). I am not here to judge. But I can assure you, NOTHING (not one tick [pip]) happens by chance or without cause. Nothing is random. The fool who believes in randomness is just ignorant of what the cause is for the effect he is seeing. Nothing happens by chance that is warped or ignorant thinking. It is NOT by chance that the Sun rises every morning and sets every evening.
It is possible. And you can look back and check whatever you want it is meaningless except to make your ego feel better. You cannot bail. You have to go down with the ship. If they beat you. You will lose money.
I know you are not doing this to lose money. But you are getting outsmarted by believing lies of what many believe to be true. WHat is true for them doesnât have to be true for you or me or anyone for that matter.
If they sell you out that means nothing more than you have failed.
You just cannot fold. If you are sitting even with one ace, you cannot fold,
you need to act as if you have 4 aces. If you donât fold you cannot lose.
It can only run down so far. You need to operate within this range.
She is wild and while you are looking at her past she changes your present.
I encourage everyone to add their own mods as their conciousness allows.
But those who have been doing this with me for some time know that once you have been knocked all the way down if you can stay in there and live
there will be so many pips you wont know who to give to first.
There were obvious extenuating circumstances which sealed my last deal,
which I may think I couldnât have avoided but I could have if I had made different choices and had different thoughts and perceptions. KNow this:
Believe this: Whatever happens happens for the best! What this means is that whatever you are needing in life now is what you will get. And that this too will pass and is a required bridge you must get over despite the trolls on it.
I am sorry I can never just give up. I play for the winning team. Doubt, worry and fear play on the other team, sometimes they hit one out of the park, buit normally they just strike out. It is the more complex fellows on this team I am analyzing.
My dad used to say talking to yourself was ok as long as you gave yourself the right answers.
Now would be a great time toi get some longs for the ride back up!
SOme crazy swings this morning. I am expecting some explosions up after the housing report coming out at 10AM.
Everyone will be dragging their feet going into that.
ANd as I said before I expect that sales are NOT going to be as bad as expected, but still lower than previous. So THis should knock up up for a burst then down for a short bit then back up.
In 3 weeks I have still not doubled my account size. It was a boring SUnday and Monday for trading until about midnight last night going into the london open. Let see if NY follows with a big leg up after the housing.
Needless to say I am expecting new highs today, I expect to blow through Thursdays highs of 206.60 or so. THe GJ is still undervalued.
There is a little fight going on @ 205.50 but upward pressure should push us up into the 10 news reports.
I will be out most of the day. I have my orders in. I only have 7 @ 3.69 percentage of used margin. SO I am buying pretty hard down into 204.00 But I seriously doubt we will get anywhere near that today.
If anyone needs me call me.
hey rrram,
i look at the times you post messages and i wonder to myself⌠does this guy ever sleep?! hahahaha. love the commentary on the GY. it really gives us newbies insight into a pair that would take years to figure out otherwise. keep it coming. iâm addicted to this thread and loving this system. i was down 200 pips on one trade and fought myself not to hit the close position button. now iâm back up to -20 pips. (all demo of course) what all SMAâs do you use or is it all here and there?
I kept buying after the news as it went down and set take profits 25-50 pips above entries, many are cashing out now ⌠all demo of course but this is a lot of fun, I like doing it this way.
A bunch of other entries I bought on Friday cashed out earlier today, so demo acct is up close to $14k from last week. Now if someone can just loan me $100k so I can do this live
Bravo, Elijah!
What a lesson. I know that night I watched my account disappear that I was in for quite the lesson. Not sure what it was, but I do know it WAS NOT a lesson to put the brakes on and be âmore cautious.â You are absolutely right when you say you canât give up, and that you have to be on the winning teamâŚand that nothing happens randomly. My thesis in graduate school was on the power of belief, and how thought creates manifest form. It is Truth.
It is interesting that after analyzing my âfaultsâ in my trading when playing this system a few weeks ago I see clearly that I did quite a bit âwrong.â I was way over margin, and I was putting in 1 lot (standard) buys at various strategic locations during the fall believing I was at bottom. All my other trades were at .1 standard lot, or one mini. If I had not put in any of those 1 lot buys I would have made it. Greed? Probably so.
I am ready to start trading this again. But I am going to run it on a demoâŚnot because I donât believe in the system, but because I donât trust myself to have faith in it and to follow the rules strictly.
I agree with Elijah, there is no âbail outâ that will work with this system. No shorting/hedging tweak that will make it fail safe. If you follow the margin rules and stay clear of that possible call when dipping several thousand pips then you should stay clear of disaster. I would think, although much against conventional wisdom, that if you had the funds to put in your account when a pending margin call is imminent you would be more likely to weather a serious storm. Although possible, the GJ isnât going to go to 99 without some serious retracements along the way. Just like the dollar isnât going to go to .01âŚor the sun wonât rise tomorrow (although possibleâŚnot very probable.)
To bend a Zen proverb a tad:
âSmall loss, small enlightenment.
Big loss, big enlightenment.â