Good catch. Things are at a breakpoint here, and that long from 204.20 (I’m a perennial bear on this pair - well, for almost a year, anyway - but favor long and short pips equally!) is looking kind of tenuous.
On the long side:
Upside break of ascending channel this morning at 207.88.
RSI bullish: H4 looking oversold, though D1 has room to breathe.
DI+ maintaining uptrend with an uptick in strength, but looking plateaued on H4, may be exhausting on D1.
This is the fourth touch in the ~209 area since 04/18/08. The last rejection resulted in a 1000 pip drop, but (corrective?) uptrend since mid-March continues.
In fact, with that drop, we have the making of an ascending triangle where 209 forms the horizontal. Upside breakout?
On the short side (some of this will look redundant):
This is the fourth touch in the ~209 area since 04/18/08. The last rejection resulted in a 1000 pip drop, but (corrective?) uptrend since mid-March continues. How much pushback can bullish pressure sustain before it wears off?
RSI: going oversold on H4. Bearish? Not necessarily; but…
Fib Retracement: the level the Guppy is bouncing off of is the 78.6% retracement line - typically a formidable level for advancing trends that generates a disproportionate number of reversals…square root of the Golden Ratio and all that.
I’ve got a pitchfork chart somewhere around here too that shows we’re coming up on a trigger line…or maybe it’s the median…ah, I can’t remember; but I think it was important. :rolleyes:
I’ve got no problem with more upside pips. What I have to watch out for, personally, is a bearish bias that predisposes me to look for reasons not to go long. I’ve learned the “just want what the market wants” lesson in the past - a couple of times. Whenever I find I’m viewing a pair through a psychological lense that includes a strong directional bias (often), taking a step back for self-examination is critical. Why we play favorites with directionality is a mysterious thing. Is it based off of now stale-dated technical analysis? A correlation that was once very tight but has since slackened? A fundamental picture that is become less relevant as the local economies represented on that pair evolve? Am I just pessimistic? My pessimism on GBP/JPY is the antithesis of this method, where the temptation is to minimize reasons to suppose the pair will take a dive. But the pair is teetering on an edge, and that’s something worth being cognizant of…