As it turned out, I went flat at just the right time (a few pips shy of 212 on G/J) before I headed off this morning (another triple-digit RED letter day on the Dow today). I left my USD/JPY and EUR/CHF on with some tight stops expecting more upside, but they stopped out 45 minutes after I left the house - didn’t give them too much leash.
Price is forming a symmetrical triangle (white diagonal lines) from which I highly doubt a breakout will occur in the pre-NFP doldrums (remember, NFP is tomorrow @ 0830 ET because Friday is a US market holiday). Support continues between 210.40-70 and especially today around 211. The 144 EMA sits modestly below @ 210.91.
Holiday weekend here or not, we may see significant back-to-back event volatility with the ECB rate decision @ 0745 ET (only indirectly related) and then the NFP itself, slated to come in modestly lower (-55k v. -44k) than last month.
What’s the tightest bid/ask spread you guys see on GBP/JPY. My local bookie in Japan is a fixed 7pip spread, but I looked at a Deutsche Bank demo account (dbfx.com) a couple of weeks ago and it bounced around with the market. Over a couple of hours 3 pips wide was quoted a number of times and that was the tightest I saw, but I also saw 5 pips wide for a while before they reverted back to 7pips.
BTW where is the best place on this site to post off topic items?
OK, fine, keep doing it … but in a separate account. Since you started this affair with NJ your focus & commentary on G-Y is less than it used to be. Yes you still comment, but the old energy is not there.
Maybe keep NJ in a separate account, I just don’t want to hear any more how you can’t play the Guppy because your funds are all tied up!
You could start a separate thread for NJ. I am curious to see how it progresses, but that is a year down the road … for now I really want to return focus to the G-Y.
If the NFP is better than expected…better for the USD…will the GJ go up? And if it is worse than expected…bad for the USD…will the GJ go down?
I am in a really tight spot here with my loss leader at 213.50 or so, and a string of buys on down to 212.30. If it drops much further my draw down will kill me. So I will have to short to save my shorts, so to speak.
BUT…if the NFP causes a rise, I will be ok of course.
But which way will it go if the news is good or bad?
So it looks like the guppy is closing down on that range heading to the pinnacle of that V. but where is she going to break to from there…any guesses???>>>>…ideas…up/down…sideways
Just checked Jeb’s charts and he is becoming less bearish. She needed to test 210.39 and so far she won’t drop below 210.70, which shows strength. So a trip back to 212 looks likely … however … due to 8:30 news and the fact that she is basing so long, I am flat & will stay that way until a direction is confirmed … might leave pips on the table, but there will still be plenty left and at this point I don’t want to just guess.
I did manage to scalp some earlier today on the 15’ chart, just practising being a troll [I]on top of [/I]the bridge
Pipsquito … if the USD/JPY is pulled up sharply on news, that should send G-Y up as well unless there is some strong event pulling at the pound at the same time (unlikely). Rrram2 keeps saying what is good for $ is good for guppy.
However … if anyone is still long, I would use any upward bounce toward 212 to get out, because if she reverses and falls (as Jeb calls for in his bigger picture), the fall this time could be substantial.
Play safe, live to play again
Here is part of post for today from my news source (free daily iinfo that I find very informative). I do not trade the news, except rarely, but it is useful to have an idea in advance what ‘might’ happen, and these guys are good). Link is forexpeacearmy dot com, click on forum, then Current Trading Signals, there will be a prompt to join for free.
[I]Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll which is expected to come out at -60K. The expectation range is between -130K and -20K so no one is expecting this number to be positive. If it comes out at -15K or higher, it would be the highest reading since February and I think it will be good for the U.S. dollar and I would buy USD/JPY. If it comes out at -110 K or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 50 pips move. We will also have Unemployment Rate coming out and if it is going to deviate by 0.2, this may either help a lot or screw your trade up, depending if it is supporting or conflicting with the NFP number. Higher unemployment rate is bad for the dollar, and lower unemployment rate is good for the dollar. We will also have Initial Jobless Claims, and deviation of 25K might be a problem or a good help, depending on which way it deviated. Higher number on Initial Jobless Claims is bad for the dollar, and lower number is good for the dollar.
Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (8:35 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 8:35 a.m. we will have Trichet speaking. Please watch the video for details about this report.
Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have ISM Non-Manufacturing coming out which is expected to come out at 51.0. If NFP deviated a lot, ISM Non-Manufacturing may not move the market a lot but if NFP came out as expected, people will be focused on the ISM. 1.0 deviation should move USD/JPY very well but we also had complete reversal. If it comes out at between 51.1 and 51.9, I would sell as soon as we have a spike up on USD/JPY 20 pips away from the prerelease. If it comes out at between 50.0 to 50.9, I would buy USD/JPY as soon as the price went down by 20 to 40 pips. However, if it comes out at 52.0 or higher, I would buy on the spike and expect USD/JPY to move 40 pips up. If it comes out at 49.9 or lower, I would sell on the spike and expect 40 pips move as well. Please watch the video for detailed explanation. [/I]
Uh-oh, looks like 4:30 am news not good for cable, however I did buy the dip in G-Y as this is probably over-reaction, looking for 20-30 pips, then out.
[I]2. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Services PMI. It is expected to come out at 49.5. If it comes out at 50.2 or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and look for 30 pips price action. If it comes out at 48.8 or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and look for 30 pips price action as well.[/I]
I was going to say 210.60 maybe as the dip down/bottom.
I was going to say the 38.2FIB at 210.40ish but it looks liek 210.60 will probably be the low for the morning.
I love the way when she drops like that, how furiously she recovers, almost as if she is ticked off to have been affected by news that way & can’t wait to resume her uptrend with a vengence
I’m not sure if it works the other way, I have only noticed this in upward moves.
My interest is at calculated at .25% equity of 400:1
as the leverage goes down your investment per lot goes up, the less leverage you use the more interest you should get paid, FXSOL doesn’t pay less on 400:1, at that rate it pays the same as 200:1 with half the money required to secure a lot. Interest for yesterday was included in the 4 days of interest I guess as there was nothing listed for Wednesday.
I try to stay on topic GBP/JPY, but aside from the obvious things that everyone so called “knows” you bring something that is diffferent from those indicators.
We, rely heavily on charts ( I DO anyways) and I agreee with so much it isnt funny. The past does not allow me to indicate (predict) the future, that is a trick of the ego. History always has a way of repeating itself, BECAUSE
people have that agreement (the club). It is no different as to why certain know things work in the market because everyone uses them and believes them.
And in case no one noticed, I belong to a different exclusive club, where we do not go with the crowd (we go with the crown {keter}) and the mass club and their agreements do not fool us.
If it is related to forex and it will help someone get a better understanding of forex or help them trade in a more elightened way then it is welcome here.
I do not want to become so exclusive and norrow minded, that we are thought of as intolerant or ignorant.
MB has spread of 3,4 and 5 pips normally, FXSOL is fixed at 9. And I am ok with that. They need to make $ too. The broker is not making the whole 9 pips.
If you mean off topic like not related to forex, or something you see as helpful to new traders here would be the place, otherwise there are all sorts of forums on the web.
We don’t need to focus on new traders but we certainly should take the time to help them and endeavor to talk in ways they can understand.
And we all sure could have the goal to be more like Andrew, His pateince and dedication to help new traders amazes me sometimes, he is very considerate of others and obviously leads by example in this department.
He shall be rewarded.
My leverage is still 100:1, I don’t need more for now and it looks like they give me 15 cents per day but when I am short, it looks like they subtract 35 cents. I will have to spend some time figuring all this out. Also the leverage thing, I had always heard the most dangerous part of forex was the use of high leverage. But if it means you are using [I]less[/I] of your own money, then … why dangerous? I guess like anything else, if it is over-used it could extend you too much??
C’mon guppy, you’ve had your rest, let’s head north again. I have exits just below 212.
Which is not always exactly in line witht he coming NFP, but it is expected to be significantly down. I think you can expect a 100-150 pip run down in the first hour if it is very bad (which is what I expect), But that was June and june is gone forever, it is now July, the new month is looking up.
I expect that good news for USD is good news for GJ as a general rule.
So if NFP is way down GJ will go down and vice versa.
But I wouldnt let it worry you, I expect NFP to only affect us for 60-90 minutes then GJ will be retracing back up from the move down after the NFP.
I could be wrong and have been wrong before but I am expecting some nice dips after NFP which is where I would buy more long.
The only stupid question is the one not asked.
Or the one asked for which you already KNOW the answer.
even if it is a collective conciousness of all the people that trade her.
She has attributes that she has demonstrated over the past and has exhibited behavior which forms her character. And she likes to go up…it is what she does. She does not liek to go down. News moves her. And she will normally retrace 100% of down moves.
Trading her is more about understanding the human psyche of the folks trading her, and I do and Andrew gave an excellent write up earlier
touching on the psychology without actually saying it.
