Also, be careful. If you feel you need rrram’s reassurance concerning market direction or about holding onto trades that are deep in the red (which, as he has expressed, is a key aspect of this method), then you ought to reevaluate your approach to trading because all of that suggests an unhealthy dependency on someone else to deliver success. I can tell you that if you review this thread from the beginning you will know in very short order exactly how to trade this method (whether it ought to be traded is another discussion) without assistance - everything else is just filler, discussion of market direction and a chronicle of the ups and downs those trading the method have experienced. If nothing else, remember the words of the first post here: “this method is very risky!”
Kabbalah is an ancient branch of Judaism that incorporates more mysticism than traditional Judaism today. Although some might say it is closer to the core of the original religion. In Kabbalah, reincarnation is accepted and there are numerous references in the New Testament that showed Jesus also accepted this concept. In the 6th century many of the older, more spiritual beliefs were ‘written out’ of the bible, including reincarnation, because if people thought they had only one shot at heaven (or hell) and the Church was in charge of that, then … well … much easier to control the people & collect a lot of money from them. :eek:
For the record, I’m a Christian mystic (Jesus was a jewish mystic) and do believe in reincarnation
To go deeper, you will have to start googling… or we need to start an off topic thread.
What’s an HYIP? Yes I hope he comes back here as well to post, the charts are not that necessary, I can’t see them that well on either forum.
I have the french fry one open as well in a browser tab but it is a bore to switch back & forth. C’mon back home, Elijah.
I’m reading Jeb, Elijah and your analysis, trying not to ‘depend’ on anyone but trying to learn how to see for myself what others seem to see so clearly.
I think both Elijah and Jeb will often be right, given enough time. I am having a problem holding through the swings in either direction. In demo account I just stay long to thoroughly test this rrram theory.
In real account, I too often still get whipsawed.
Andrew … you transitioned from long to short at the perfect time … in retrospect I can see why you did it, but at the moment it was not clear to me.
I’m guessing you have already taken profits, but if you are still holding some, what would invalidate your short positions?
And if you have taken profits, would you re-short to go lower … what would be the signal to do that?
I think my problem is I am getting in at the middle of trades instead of watching for the clear setup that she’ll be moving in one direction or another.
She passed Jeb’s critical bearish continuation line1 … I thought that was a clear sign … but then she came roaring back and I am caught short in the 210.50 region which is probably where YOU took profits
I’d like to copy/paste your IKH commentary to the IKH thread … is that OK with you?
It hasn’t been posted here. I became read some of his old thread at the other forum, became interested in why he was banned and and then the history bug took over and that’s one of the pages that turned up while searching around.
Thanks for the Kabbalah info - M2P has an insatiable craving for information, and sometimes it takes more than one person to feed him enough. We could have a lively discussion about this; but we’d better stick with the Guppy; at least here!
Yeah I love discussing this stuff … there is so much we have not been told about how it all began. If M2P wanted, I could blow his little Texas mind with information … but it shall be for another time or place
As to our guppy friend … is she roaring back as rrram would believe … or just retracing in her spiral down to the levels where Jeb is awaiting her??
Andrew may be the only one with the answer now …
Are you short, long or flat??
Yes: Elijah and Jeb will usually be right, for very different reasons.
Elijah buys and holds with the intent of scalping - and maybe the occasional swing trade when the pair trends steadily in his direction - but will become a long-term position trader if the market forces him His low consumption of margin allows him to be dead wrong as often - more often, actually - as he is right without suffering realized losses. This is a simple waiting game where being wrong isn’t usually punishable (unless you’ve used too much margin) and being right has its typical reward. Not a failsafe approach to the market, but one that can be successfully traded if you have the patience and mental endurance.
Jeb continuously maps out possible futures (as EW theoreticians do) and closes the door on each of them as they’re invalidated. He always expresses his bias (never sure when he’s taking trades or not) but usually has a validated wave count.
I’ve got to run to work, but we can definitely take a look at last night’s trading later on. Resistance at the bottom of the kumo (211.02) right now; may be a good time to pick up (or add to) a short. Not a recommendation.
Great explanation as usual, Andrew … I think I ‘see’ for the first time how Elijah is doing this … I was not putting as much emphasis on the rolling-scalping part of it. I buy & then want to hang on for dear life until the next Big One. In demo account, I constantly bank little profits … and I’m making a ton in there.
I think I’m going to quit watching Jeb’s charts … as he is continuously re-drawing the target points, every chart changes and I am beginning to think it is a distraction & makes me think a retracement is imminent when there is none. He has been calling for a major retracement for over 2 weeks now.
Last night I got short too late … instead of waking up, seeing the downturn and saying “ok I missed it … next” I tried to play catch up as usual and shorted too low. In my demo account I followed the rules, I just bought more at the bottom, in real account, got creamed both ways.
I’m not going to be a buy and hold-forever like Elijah does, at least not yet but … each time this happens it helps me understand a bit better how this works. Yesterday I did something really neat … was buying the guppy and shorting the GBP/CHF at the same time … I ended up collecting on the swissy combo, then guppy retraced back up & I collected there as well. Now THAT is trading … that is what I need to be doing … and I am getting closer to figuring it out …
Thanks Andrew for all your valuable input, I tried giving you a credit but they say I have given you too many and have to pass it around :D.
Thanks to both of you guys for the off market info, and market info.
I am not as really dumb as I claim. I don’t have Andrew’s extensive grasp of the English vocabulary or 4Xstar’s grasp of all languages, but I can hold my own.
I was long last night (morning) and did real real well again. I bought that dip all the way down.
I was looking into the GBPCHF to short when GBPJPY goes short. When I noticed that the EURCHF seems to be a better match…possibly slightly lagging the GBPJPY.
Our little guppy girl is so neutral looking. There are no setups to be had. It has been like this most of the summer. Are we going to have this kind of price action all the way to September.
That’s just it, and I’m assuming Elijah knows it, but he has never stated it fully. In fact, the method has never been expressed systematically, for which I think there is good reason.
My thoughts on the method:
The method’s given title features the phrase “equity building”, which refers primarily to the rolling collection of positive swap on long positions. However, a used margin percentage spilling over into double digit numbers is bordering on excess. This means any rational, experienced practitioner of this method will derive swap on a maximum of 10% (lower or higher at any given time depending on usage) of the position they command while they hold it. The realized “equity building” impact? Positive, but nominal. What keeps this from playing a larger role? More swap requires a larger position which requires greater margin usage which heightens the risk of a call on a drawdown which may be very shallow.
This method is really about buying bits and pieces as the pair declines, with the expectation of liquidating later at B/E or slightly higher. If there is a massive drawdown, negligible use of margin ensures a call does not occur. While waiting for the pair to resume an uptrend or waiting for it to bounce back, positive swap is earned. Again the benefit is small; but if the waiting period back to break-even is long, the swap can accumulate to a significant amount. The downside inherent in that strategy, however, is that trading capital is tied up earning pennies because eventually the pair will (well, is expected) to return to former higher levels. Too many too high (TMTH as rrram has referred to it) can result in a very long wait. A quick review of the last years GBP/JPY chart shows that longs picked last July are still thousands of pips from B/E. There is an implicit commitment to a 100% win percentage (or as close to as possible), which may entail waiting for years to zero out positions at no loss.
In a market that oscillates more so with no catastrophic decline, the opportunity exists to buy drops and exit for small profit - these are the “scalps”. The position sizes opened for the buys are very small relative to the account balance, so the profits are minimal, but multiple lots are typically opened and closed at profit. These are where the profits (the overwhelming majority) derived from the method are generated.
The virtue of the method, correctly applied, is that one’s analysis can be pathetically wrong but where margin is effectively managed, realized losses won’t be incurred unless a truly catastrophic decline results in a margin call.
The crux of the method is not swap/rollover or the carry component: at least, not in the real world. In actuality, “scalping” many small lots for their small profits is where the money is to be made, whether in an uptrending market, or in a ranging market.
This is however, where it becomes tricky. Does it matter where you buy? In a ranging market, not as much - unless you buy in at an absolute top, you’ll be able to buy and then sell at some point relatively soon for a profit. But in a more widely oscillating market or in a strongly trending market, it is very important. Relentlessly buying every 10, 20, 50 pips sounds easy enough, but over hundreds of pips, that a lot of drawdown and a lot of margin used. No matter, you say, it will return. But when?
To avoid potentially weeks/months - years? It’s not impossible - sitting in a massive drawdown is key, even though you’ll earn some swap. What does this mean? It means that buying cannot occur at random, but will require analysis so that you concentrate positions “low” (toward an objective market bottom) rather than just “lower” (buying lower buying lower buying lower buying lower buying lower with no real end in sight, margin permitting).
This is very important, and the most difficult part of the method to grasp because success here is almost purely discretionary. Buy a lot of orders up high and then go into a 1000 drop? Bad call on your part. Tough luck until the market brings you back to B/E 4 months later. Usually if you screw up, you’ll be fine: this method does not require an astute analyst. What it does require is the willingness to wait out and weather massive drawdowns for as long as it takes for them to aright themselves. Stops are out of the question because they negate the purpose of using tiny lot sizes. The margin call is your only stop, and your margin should be managed to avoid that at all costs.
Could you use that capital elsewhere to make money, rather than simply dig yourself out of a loss? Would the money made elsewhere outstrip the rate of return derived from the swap you’re accruing? Yes; and almost certainly yes.
So is the method viable? Yes, if managed appropriately, just like any other method. The essential difference here is that method adherence, other than not going short, is solely a matter of money management.
Is the method trading? Kind of. More like a dense series of tiny investment positions, bought at a alleged discount (“GBP/JPY will go UP UP UP”) and sold at fair value.
That’s a lot to read, but thought it was important to condense what’s has evolved over the last 136 pages and to clarify or dispel some notions that may be unclear or incorrectly held. I guess it’s ironic that I have not and do not trade the method.
I don’t really trade this method either. I do, like this method, buy down. I do, unlike this method but similar, short up. I consider this value trading and not investing because it is on a short time frame. All this orthodox “go with the trend” stuff is called momenum trading. I am not a momentum trader. I have tried it and it doesn’t work for me. Value trading on the other hand has been very profitable for me.
Why do I like to long the guppy? … because the positive swap is an added extra that puts a smile on your face when you are in a winning set of trades.
How do I know how to spot bottoms, tops, and neutral positions? …well my price action analysis.
Will I ever realize a loss? …you bet your a$$ I will. I am not going to lose my whole account because of one bad series of trades. However my stops are mental and very very wide. They are not based on pips but price action analysis of knowing what you expected is not going to happen.
Why do I hang out on this thread even though I do not trade this method 100%? …because this is where the action is.
I agree, this is the heart of the ‘method’ and the part I did not get although I was doing it in my demo account because I was strictly following the rules of ‘just keep buying’. And the demo acct is on fire.
This was also the heart of bunnygirl’s method … her method itself, the bunnygirl cross, was just one of thousands that can work, or not, fairly consistently over time … but what made her rich was the money management, in her case always buying 4 positions, and taking profits at +10, +20, +30 and let the 4th run as long as possible.
So once again, mm is the key.
One way to play this (rrram’s) method is to open a micro acct with $1k or a mini acct with $10k and just play strictly by the rules. If at some point she moves down so far that recovery could be months or years away, as Andrew points out, you just leave that account to run on its own, assuming it will never drawdown to zero, fund another account and start active trading again. At some point the first acct with return to b/e with tons of interest in tow. But you would lose big time if that was the only account you could afford & it gets blocked by drawdown.
Could you use that capital elsewhere to make money, rather than simply dig yourself out of a loss? Would the money made elsewhere outstrip the rate of return derived from the swap you’re accruing? Yes; and almost certainly yes.
So is the method viable? Yes, if managed appropriately, just like any other method. The essential difference here is that method adherence, other than not going short, is solely a matter of money management.
Is the method trading? Kind of. More like a dense series of tiny investment positions, bought at a alleged discount (“GBP/JPY will go UP UP UP”) and sold at fair value.
Correct … but there is another component that drew me to this thread & probably many of you as well … and that is the … for lack of a better term, spiritual overlay on all of this. Elijah does not just think the guppy will go up up up … he is ‘willing’ her to or maybe better, he is creating a Universe in which that is what she will always do.
That’s where the Kabbalah, or any kind of metaphysical or mystical philosophy comes into it.
A few years ago, this would have been sheer ‘woo-woo’ talk and definitely not belonging to any sort of serious trading discussion. However, in the past few years, physicists have begun telling us that “creating our reality” seems to be precisely what happens, that there could be ‘infinite’ parallel universes … take your pick which one you want to inhabit & change it at will.
Wild stuff … but this is what Elijah is tapping into in his own way & bringing to this thread as part of a trading methodology.
I believe it, but need to find my own way of making it work in my trading. My solution so far is to only go long the guppy (the few times I have shorted it I got slammed big time). For shorting, I have found the GBP/CHF – the 3 times I have shorted, it worked out perfectly. So I have one to play long, one to play short and the focus is not divided – when I see guppy I think up, when I see the swissy combo I think down
However this is still trading & until I get this “creating my own universe” thing nailed, I need to be really careful in choosing my entry points, which means patience, patience, patience
Historically GBP/CHF is second or third to the Guppy in terms of trading volume for me and is second only to the Guppy as the pair I enjoy trading most - I’m glad you’ve developed a bit of confidence trading it, and a balance perspective on trading the two pairs.
As for creating one’s own reality and parallel universes: the credibility of the theory behind all of this aside, our culture is rampant with spiritual charlatans who peddle ideas in a metaphysical marketplace that values novelty, titillation and whatever is adaptable to consonance with the ego of the practitioner over authenticity.
I am not a philosophical skeptic or a physicalist and don’t analyze ideas from a principled state of disbelief or epistemic despondency. I do appreciate the power of the will as a creative force in our own lives; and do believe that force of will combined with education, discipline and humility are the keys to success as a trader. But, I am very skeptical of the legitimacy or perceived value of trading the Guppy with this supposed metaphysical edge. I know: this is the typical, non-forward-looking response.
Again, I am not skeptical by default - far from it. However, deconstructing the source material here I see a simple yearning for the pair to move in a single direction because that is what corresponds to the method and will bolster confidence and interest in the method; and the “spiritual” aspect (including attributing consciousness to the pair) a distinctive niche that shrouds the method in a bit of self-protective mystery to limit vulnerability to criticism.
The truth is that a minimal use of margin allows anyone to trade any pair with a win percentage of or approaching 100% while earning along the way if a) the pair features positive rollover, b) they are capable of being very patient and very disciplined, and c) any decline in the pair they trade is not truly catastrophic. No added ingredients to that recipe necessary. Now, if there were a level of analytical rigor displayed here that support the veracity of “willing the Guppy UP UP UP”, that would make the mad Guppy prophecies worthy of further consideration.
Well I don’t follow any charlatans, spiritual or otherwise, I’m just fascinated by the rate at which traditional physics and spirituality are racing towards an intersection point. I don’t discount anything … all things are possible, even an endlessly rising guppy.
However, I still remember to tie my camel
(old arabic proverb: [I] “Trust in Allah, but tie your camel”[/I])
Hi to you all - this is my first post and i have been following this thread with great interest.
i am a newbie - been following the GY for a few months.
Thanks especially to Andrew and 4xstar and of cousre rram and others - i have looked at Zulutrade but someone warned me off them - i have tried to email 4xstar but can’t seem to get an email to her.
I was toying with this very simplistic idea - say you were to trade 10 lots and went long. This is an average of usd200 per day - with about 90,000 in your account you would get margin called at about-900 pips - i could afford to put in another 900 pips to cover.
This is effectively tieing up say 200,000usd - but you are earning 200usd a day interest - NO bank pays you this interest on 200,000
The downside - as we all know …is if the market goes against you more than 1,800pips, back down to 194.00region and you get margine called (i would still have reserves though) - if the market does go up to the mid 230’s and beyond in the next year or so, you collect the interest and 10,000usd for every 100pips.
i realise it is risky, but would very much appreciate your opinions - or just calling me a fool is ok!
thanks and keep up the good work.
