“Minds are like parachutes, they only function when they are open”
Oh well someone said it I lost it.
Inverted hammer forming on 3H if closes at or below resistance at Kijun-Sen @ 210.15;
Chikou Span is also reinforcing the ~210.15 barrier.
Also resistance @ 50% fibret for last swing high/low (208.00 - 212.25) there.
A close on the 1800 ET candle much below 210- @ 2100 ET creates Dark Cloud Cover. [I]Dark Cloud Cover, Piercing and Engulfing Patterns pair very well with line studies to signal the Guppy’s peaks and troughs. [/I]
61.8%: 210.63. This matches with the classic barrier (~210.67) we’ve seen since the beginning of June. 210.55 fib fan here as well…
76.8%: 211.25 - which coincides exactly with Senkou Span-A @ the bottom of the kumo. Fib fan resistance ~211.15 here. Keeping in mind price and Tenkan-Sen/Kijun-Sen all remain below the cloud.
Above that back to the 211.68-212.20 (our 100% retracement) range with which the Guppy recently contended.
Dont know where else to get one…selling this one at 211.00 and going to bed I think.
I cant really tell, the 3H is a strong up still
I dont see a signal of a reverse.
It has been an amazing come back and i am certain there is some retrace in the works and thatis why I sold my 209.99 for 7 or 8 pips and reenetered a order to buy one again at 209.99.
We have strong LT trend line support at 209.20 now moving up every 3 hours.
There may be some small bounces but a continued move upward is in order.
UJ is now above 105 for a bit now maybe it can hold as that is a big level.
I am going to bed thinking up because if it runs down I dont have many orders if any waiting to be filled. Except the 209.99 which I could care less either way if it gets filled, if it does great, I have still good margin useage 
Thanks for keeping us up to date while you are on vacation!
[B]“Do not take life too seriously. You will never get out of it alive.”[/B]
Elbert Hubbard
[B]
“If you are aware of your weaknesses and are constantly learning, your potential is virtually limitless.”[/B]
Jay Sidhu
Night all see you in london
what do you think? do you reckon that 210.30 is elliotwave point 2 or point 4…would be better if four, otherwise leg 3 is coming next…might need a parchute for that one!
The widest TF to which I pay heed with any consistency is 1D, which I follow closely because of IKH. There I see an ascending trendline from begun 03/17-03/18 that has had 7 subsequent touches (6 excluding today): all have held, with today being no exception. Currently that line sits right around 209.60, which we’ll close above (my 1D candles are configured for ET) unless a flood of shorts pushes the rate down in the next 10. Uptrend intact.
The last time that line was [I]violated intraday[/I] was May 9, but the close occurred above the line. The line, as circumstance would have it, coincided almost exactly with the bottom of the cloud. Price moved up, touched the line once more on May 21 while it dawdled along Kijun-sen, then crossed KS and didn’t look back until the uptrend’s momentum began stalling around June 27.
How about precedent? The most recent top-down Tenkan/Kijun cross occurred on May 16, several sessions before the trendline test on May 21. The trendline pushed back, causing a bottom-up cross that was only negated yesterday. Now we have a new top-down T/K cross, once again at the trendline. The difference? The top of the cloud (Senkou Span B) supported price in late May. This time around, the top of the cloud (Senkou Span A) sites @ 206.30. Again, this is all derived from 1D. It’s a moderately bullish POV that relies principally on maintenance of the ascending trendline.
But, I don’t take trades from 1D - almost always 1H or 3H. This approx. level at this point in time is littered with support (209.93, 209.67, 209.26) which is mostly respected (with the exception of the excursion beneath 209 earlier, promptly corrected), but also resistance (210.15, 210.45). On these TFs, I’m neutral, seeing some significant buoyancy around 209 but also the capacity to slide another couple hundred pips to the kumo if this pull back to 210 turns out to be corrective (not to mention the cloud does ramp back to 210 at the beginning of August). This is the gray area in which I’m - mostly - comfortable being alternately bullish and bearish whenever suitable, with relatively little mental quibbling over direction.
And no problem - glad to be able to check in on occasion while I’m gone. Sometimes you need a brief vacation from vacation, anyway! 
if she doesnt bust through 211.30 in the next couple of hours,…well there she is going to take a trip down south…she liked the thrill she got from it yesterday…wind blowing in the hair and all
Yeah and the beaches are nicer … Toronto doesn’t have beaches, she may have remembered that 
Jeb’s charts do not show any chance of another leg up without some sort of significant retracement. His conservative scenario is a retrace to 208.60 and then the trip north to Toronto at 212.79. This to me would be the most probable, I just don’t see any technical reason for a continuation upward here without a retracement. I have checked back on the charts and have never seen it happen without the retracement.
So I am very curious to see how this plays out… the only thing pulling her north seems to be Elijah waiting for her at that Toronto cafe’.
So I guess I am going to get a few more winks. Just scalped another,
trying to get a few more down around 209.70 if we get there.
I sold the 210.07. She is going north in a mad fast way. HOld ON!
Forget that sinking south thing, I doubt she will do it but if she does I will get more again. margin useage is down to 7.8% getting better.
210.74 is 38.2 she shot right up to that fib and retracing down a few now…I am off to get a few more winks
And dang it I sold a 210.07 cheap! The she got mad and RAN to toronto for COFFEE! Seem seems like she may be coming back with it now! LUcky for her she didnt get a speeding ticket this morning!
Well there is no rhyme or reason here … so I guess trying to figure out a price target is out of the question …
I have lost track of how many pips I made. Anyone who bought on that run all the way down to 208.00, should have learned some lessons.
It just goes to show HOW she MOVES. It is not about me being right.
We arent to toronto yet :), but she isnt too far off from where she fell from.
I cheered her on the whole way. I drug her north with my will. Bullish divergence finally was a the winner. We just broke 14.6 fib 211.45. From here I am only at 5.01% margin useage.
Next buy down is 210.35, But as I always say we may never see that price anytime soon, but just in case we get there, my order is in.
2 GJ lots left to sell, a run up to 212 will flatten me out. Where she gets me is after she zoomz up past my loss leader causing my loss leader to sell for aprofit, then when she keeps going another bunch of pips I almost always miss out on them.
Maybe I need to start limiting the amount of gas she has in her tank!
she just drop me off with my second last passenger at 211.50 with a 30pip profit ,now just my loss leader is left onbard only 30pips further up the road… i had a take profit on that at break even, but now considering just to stay on board.
What a ride down…i was enjoying it buying every 40 odd pips all the way down…at one stage the draw down was nearly equal to my profits of the last two weeks…but she turned, as she does, and sped away. i wike up with a couple 100 pluses, cashed them in and be casguihing in for the past twelve hours…Wahoo the guppy…the analysis of the GUP is up…she goes down which is nice of her, always nice to be picked upp and taken up…just keep picking me up.
now in hindsight, what is the anlaysis that set her down…really it is just support and resistance levels…was it the news…forgotten now…doesnt really matter, but why is it that it goes so far, then turns and goes right back up again…how is it, why did it stop at 207.8 or whatever…how much more down could of you handled another 300, is that possible too…or is 400 a max, can we expect more
just to let you know in my demo… i have only being using this system.
it started with 100,000 exactly only two weeks ago.
every order i have place has been 5 lots ie. $50/pip
it is $191,000 right now with one loss leader left in play at -$1000.
now that is pretty good!!!
[B]“Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.”[/B]
Robert Collier
Again it IS not about me being right or wrong.
it IS about what IS. WHat IS, IS GJ’s behavior, which is always in the present, you can look back at her past. But the best way to judge her moves is by watching her day in and day out. She is her own girl and does what she wants usually but there are forces beyond her control sometimes that makes her move the way she does. She is the most obnoxious woman I know. SO did ANYONE LEARN ANYTHING FROM THAT LAST RUN DOWN?
I dont know how to tell you, what I “KNOW”. But watch me and mine (GJ) long enough and you MUST get the hang of it!
So if you sell yoyur loss leader now and lose $1,000, you will still be up 90,000?!?
Maybe it is time to move to a live micro account?
'
dID YOU LEARN SOMETHING FROM THIS LAST RUN DOWN?
weren’t you almost sold out? Or better asked what was the maximum margin %age useage you peaked out at?
This is the key money management. And like I say and do and know,
what I do works because of principles which maybe some people will never understand.
I am not the creator, I do not creat principle nor do I enforce them or assure their completion and perfection.
I do not have everything figured out, I am no better than anyone else.
We are all one, join me and my conciousness trading GJ.
For today, I have a service call! so no pimpin’ gj today I guess.
I do have some orders in spaced down hoping for a retrace before she tests 212.50. She took my last long and all that is left is a LL at 211.75.
If I sold it now for a loss on that one order, Obviously I am still COUNTLESS pips ahead.
Counting pips isn’t really important, and bragging to others is not in order,
and may bring some Tikkune down on you. You cannot exscape Tikkune don’t even try! face it and correct it and transform and move on.
So far to date there has never been ONE human that ever lived that was able to exscape theiur Tikkune!
Well I’ve been lurking here in this thread for about a month…2 months, read pretty much every single post, however I seemed to have missed andrews summary somehow. 
I finally went live right before this massive rundown. Talk about intense, completely different when you are playing with real money. :eek: I realize how hard it can be to ‘stick to the plan’ when you have your real money at stake. However, I can say that I stuck to it, it worked in the demo so I stayed with her and almost bought the entire way down.
I am happy to say that I am now up around to a balance of 700 bucks on an account that started at 500. Not bad for 2 days of trading
Thanks to you in this thread that share your knowledge!
We only briefly talked about this many posts ago but grader has a spread sheet that allows him to see how far he can go down before getting sold out at 100% margin useage. I guess this last time he could go down to 180 or something. 180! hahaha not to make fun but he is very smart and very safe with his margin! I laugh at 180 because even in England sunk into the ocean price wouldnt go down to 180
One ;loss leader left at 211.75 I am holding this, And often after having only one loss leader left, I think I should change its TP to 100 pips, because I dont really want to sell this. That way I still have an ‘interest’ in the market.
and if she decided that the north pole is nice this time of year, I would be going with here there, but if you dont have any orders you are not going anywhere with her.
And once you missed the ‘bus’, All you can often do is watch her speed off,
you cannot catch her! Nothing worse than watching her drive from Oklahoma
to minnesota, while you are NOT on the bus!
If you are kind to her and speak nicely about her, she will come ppick you up anywhere, even Arkansas! and take you back North out of the states into God’s country, Canada! BTW all (without exception) countries are God’s.
If you bad mouth her, well can you say whipsaw? She is the most skilled user of the whipsaw in the forex world. She has whipsawwed all sorts of ‘Big Boys’…really she doesnt care how big you are, she fears NOT!