Me too on a larger scale … $500k in demo 6 weeks ago, only playing this strategy, nothing else. This morning it just topped $800k with more to come.
And I am playing 5 lots at a time as well. Biggest drawdown was over $250k, but that came after I was already $200k in profit.
When I cash out everything after this run, it should be over $850k.
I still need to run some numbers but it looks like, conservatively you can take a $10k account, play micro lots 5 at a time with this strategy and only this … and double it every 2-3 months.
I am in the process of tweaking my spreadsheet( in light of that recent drop, I noticed that I could do more with the spreadsheet) as soon I am done I will gladly share it.
Something I have been trying (especially in the last move down) is that I have been buying behind her move down, this eliminates any drawdown and almost doubles up your profits. Be warned though , I used my spreadsheet to calculate how much I could buy behind. There is the chance of retrace but you should space them (in accordance with your margin management) so that you can only pick up one extra lot in the retrace. Hope this makes sense , perhaps those that are running Demo’s could try this and report back to us !!!. Grader
I’ve been working on a similar spreadsheet as well, do not have it right yet, at least it doesn’t make sense when I change margin from 100:1 to 200:1 or 400:1. Perhaps you could send me your ss grader & I can send you mine, maybe 2 heads will get it together faster. 4xstar at traderstar.com.
[QUOTE=rrram2;57601’]
DID YOU LEARN SOMETHING FROM THIS LAST RUN DOWN?
weren’t you almost sold out? Or better asked what was the maximum margin %age useage you peaked out at?
This is the key money management. And like I say and do and know,
what I do works because of principles which maybe some people will never understand.[/QUOTE]
That is the key … we need to know the amount needed to do this safely. Earlier I said $10k which proportionately is double what I have in my demo account, trading 5 micro lots at a time. But it could be less, need those spreadsheets to calculate more precisely.
It not the easiest to use as it doesn’t automatically tell you what price you can go down to. It will tell you your floating p/l in pips and dollars, equity, etc. So you can change the ‘current’ price field to see how that would affect your equity etc.
If anyone has questions on it, let me know.
I can’t attach it from the forum, so hopefully I don’t get banned for posting another website on here.
*look for the xls spreadsheet redwolf547’s Stuff eSnips Folder
There [I]is[/I] no analysis …she defies fundies & news, she laughs at technical analysis, she just does what she does, as Elijah says. I would suggest studying the candles of the last 2 days, and throw all charts and ta out the window, just look at the candles from the 15’ on up, especially the 60’. Candles is price action and price action alone tells her story.
Elijah has learned to ‘feel’ her, it took him many months and one blown account (that is when you learn the fastest) but now he just ‘knows’ what she is planning (although not always when…)
We have to get to that point … watching the 60’ candles yesterday and through last night, I began to “see” it as well. It defies ta, logic, news, everything. It is just what the guppy does.
I think most of us have accepted that her dips and retracements are only to buy more gas for her runs up. All that is left is to figure what size account - leverage - position size is needed to safely trade her this way and … work on the “when”. But it won’t be found in any chart, price action alone controls her moves. Study the candles of the last 2 days, maybe memorize them
Elijah knows her like in that song “Have you ever really loved a woman” , that is the goal for the rest of us
You can edit it & post not as a link but as something like esnips dot com/ rest of address… so we can go there, but it is not clickable.
Thanks for sharing, maybe it is the missing link I need to make mine work properly … I think mine will be simple to use, but some forumlas may still be off, will compare with yours.
Now what? I still have limit orders from 210 scattered down to 207 and even the nearest one seems far away. I understand that it is not possible to know where this carefree bus is headed next, but would I start adding some limit orders nearer to 211? I am getting jittery just watching her taillights in the distance. Are there favorite indicators to help to keep me away from TMTH? Have I asked too many questions?:o
Jerry
Now she is back in her old trading range … the one that lasted from 30 June to 14 July. It is no man’s land here … will she continue north for a true breakout beyond 214? Or make a token dip back to 207 to make all the Elliott Wave people happy … or maybe just do the TR dance again for awhile.
Only the Shadow knows … (maybe Elijah knows too …)
I’m working on the spreadsheet now, the input from mykungfu helped a lot. The result should be that you can enter any variable, account size, # positions, amount of current dd and calculate exactly where you are & how much more you can take
Another thing, I think most have come to this conclusion … this strategy needs to be traded in a separate account, not mixed with any other trading.
This spread sheet you are speaking of would be worth its weight in gold!! I am still not trading this system live because I don’t have a clear idea on where I am with draw down etc. at any given moment and I think I will just keep buying down into oblivion and then lose it all. The spreadsheet would be a perfect supplement to this trading…to know when to stop buying and just sit back and be confident, within reason (with whatever bottom you can be pretty certain it will not breech) that you will not get killed.
Of course! I am getting close, I just need to figure out how this leverage thing works. It is still my nemesis, I can’t wrap my mind around it for some reason.
Let me try to explain, lets say she is at 211.00 and I have buy limit orders spaced out at say 210.59, 210.09, 209.79 etc down. Now she moves down to say 210.30 so she picked up my order at 210.59 I would then place a buy stop at 210.49 so that when she comes back up she will pick this order up (as Elijah has said we know she will come back up) and my order at 210.09 would have closed at say 210.40 for a 21pip profit so as one closes another opens. From my experience so far it works well but one has to be very careful to watch margin management. If you have a low account balance then I would suggest spreading them out further. The other fear is the broker hunting these orders and then immediately dropping which just increases your margin, so some times I wait for it to get further down before putting in my buy stop. As I said I think it needs to be tested by us and then we can perhaps fine tune it. I hope this explains what I have been doing, please let me know if you need more explanation. Hey Todd great to see you back, don’t worry we will perfect this spreadsheet !!!
Yes, I plan to sit down one day and devote a whole day to figuring out leverage. I of course know basically what is going on with it, but I can’t seem to apply it to a variety of situations…and of course, that is pretty important.
Hey, thanks. I have been trying to follow without jumping in too much. I have had a terrible month with my “other” accounts. The bottom seems to have dropped out. I have had such success for about a year now and then all of a sudden nothing I do works. Figures. Of course this happens with most traders. Anyway…my plans have been postponed, as I wanted to open a $10k live account just for this system…but haven’t had the funds to do it. I am not at a loss yet, just losing all my gains, so things are not going as expected.
But of course I see this only as a little dip and once I get my account going I will be here more often. I may just open a new demo to trade it but I have been so busy with trying to keep my head above water I haven’t had the time to do that. But as Elijah says “do not think about what you do not want!”
Thanks for welcoming me back!! I love this thread!
THE FIRST OF MY TMTH FROM JUNE 26TH IS FINALLY IN PROFIT!!! OH IT’S ON NOW!! I’ve had a lil bit of experience with excel… I think I may tackle working on this spreadsheet thing too. Between all of us we may come up with almost an auto trading robot excel sheet.
