She’s fighting hard just below the 201 but I think she will eventually lose the battle … so close to 200, she’ll be pushed under. That’s just an opinion,
I won’t be CTC-ing her until better confirmation!
(see post below for CTC explanation :D)
Hmm … interesting action, is this the beginning of a true reversal or just a last attempt at an upside breakout before the fall below 200.
Typical retracement(maybe to about 202 - 202.50, i’m still bear on this pair.
Up to 202.50 is quite a retracement, she is headed north with a fury now, I am long again, but not sure she will stop anytime soon … some are calling for a retracement to 204+
cadar, do you only short the GY, or do you also go long?
I’m a trend trader, hence my short bias. Why go Long in a downtrend? I will reverse with the trend when that happens but for now I’m a bear.
Makes sense … and it looks like you may have nailed this move again, and to the pip again … you said between 00 and 50 and she screeched to a halt at .25!!
How do you DO that???
I want to learn!!
Depends what constitutes a reversal in fortunes in your book. Each trader plays their views on specific level or zone activity differently.
Personally, I like to see some kind of confirmation first before stringing out a tentative line in the direction of the near term momentum.
The scaling & consolidation of prior lower tops (in a downtrend) or prior higher bottoms (in an uptrend) is one measure of the trend reversal potential.
Another might be a concerted attempt to build a base off a strong directional trend flow. That + a determined push which attracts participation via peak-trough behavior would offer a degree of confidence to maybe consider flipping sides.
If prior highs or lows in an established trend aren’t successfully conquered then it leaves you exposed to the whiplash kick of a fake out back in the direction of the dominant trend. Spike moves of fresh or newly visited lows (& highs) can occur for a number of reasons. Usually they�re simply profit taking snaps, but can also be event driven.
You�ll soon get a clear gauge on what�s occurring by the strength of the participation & that should be your guide when preparing to switch sides on a medium term basis.
If that participation fails to reveal itself then it’s back to the least risky option of selling rallies in a downtrend…buying dips in an uptrend - regardless of your timeframe of choice!
That “halt” hasn’t been confirmed until it shows a valid pull back.
What would make it a valid pullback?, a failed retest of the descending trendline?
Ok, with the help of your chart, I see what you are saying … you would not make a decision that a pair is reversing based on one or two 60 min candles, you want to see some sort of new directional movement develp which would probably require a day or two (at least) to establish itself.
However, often when the guppy reverses, she moves lightening fast in the opposite direction For example, not atypical, July 16-17 500 pip reversal off the low in less than 24 hours. Or perhaps you would not have even tried to play that one, but would have joined in after the upward consolidation that followed July 18-22. ? The first move was spectacular, but had much lower probability of outcome?
Do you use any volume indicators to gauge strength of a move? I have not yet found a good buy-sell pressure indicator for forex. There is an MT4 indicator called “juice” that approximates volume strength. Or do you judge strength solely on candle formation and/or how quickly old s/r points are taken out?
Get ready…
Ok… Green at the go Long line…
You either STOPPED OUT or looking to enter more.
A reversal candle formation. I’ve been short all week, just looking formations after retracements to add more lots.
Bounce off of support.
I see what you are saying … you would not make a decision that a pair is reversing based on one or two 60 min candles, you want to see some sort of new directional movement develp which would probably require a day or two (at least) to establish itself.
Yeah like I said, the price action would have to prove itself before I committed any regular dough to the party. For me, that would entail either some pretty heavy duty basing where price stretched out into a prolonged range or consolidation�…and/or a series of higher highs & higher lows, taking out previous levels of rejection along the way.
I�m not too concerned with how long it takes to get it�s ass in gear, just that it displays the type of behavior which would encourage me to take action.
However, often when the guppy reverses, she moves lightening fast in the opposite direction.
That�s true, indeed it does. But potential �one day wonders� doesn�t do it for me if I�m looking to feed into a trend run. You can�t afford to play around with unsubstantiated & erratic moves if you�re attempting to build or add to a core position. The costs & expenditure of doing business are too important to go chasing price all over the park on a whim.
If I was intent on catching sharp momentum bursts via one of our micro-timeframe strategy plays, then that�s a whole different ball game. It�s horses for courses.
For example, not atypical, July 16-17 500 pip reversal off the low in less than 24 hours. Or perhaps you would not have even tried to play that one, but would have joined in after the upward consolidation that followed July 18-22?
Well, first & foremost that move away from 208.0 on July 16 was a potential continuation shunt, not a reversal. If you look at the activity from a 240min (& 60min) viewfinder, the peak-trough behavior stood up until 212.0
You then got a little consolidation before it popped down�…but it didn�t confirm the drop, yeah? There was no lower low or a pullback lower high confirm. Therefore, the mid-term uptick wasn�t compromised at that time. In fact, the price action quickly confirmed the bullish mid-term momentum bias (see attached chart) on that spike kick back thru the range on the 18th.
Do you use any volume indicators to gauge strength of a move?
No. There is no genuine volume readings on spot FX. All the activity we observe is via the price information on & around the s&r zones & the trend/range behavior.
I have not yet found a good buy-sell pressure indicator for forex. There is an MT4 indicator called “juice” that approximates volume strength.
You don�t really need all that garbage to read the price activity. The only juice in my world comes packaged in cardboard wrapping with pictures of fruit on it.
You can get all the info you need from the candles/bars, your immediate & mid-term price flows & plain old common sense.
Approaching 23% Fib retrace.
First fib target penetrated…
Took some profit here…
That was a nice scalp 
The good old 38% fib retrace.