GBP/JPY: Winning Strategies

See our discussion from last Thursday in posts 169-170. :stuck_out_tongue:

The problem is you have made up your mind about me. You have so many misconceptions about me. Until you are willing to let go of them, we will never see eye to eye. The indicators that I give away for free are just as good as the ones I send as a thank you. There are no ā€œcrippledā€ indicators.

Attached is the TRO FX HEATMAP. Itā€™s FREE. Does that look like a lessor indicator to you? You do NOT have to send me a donation unless you want to.

I donā€™t ā€œmake callsā€. I was showing a method. But no matter what I do, you find a way to put a NEGATIVE SPIN on it. Perhaps you should consider working for one of the candidates in their SMEAR OPERATIONS.

So funny how so many Americans, living in the so called LAND OF THE FREE, just love to tell others what they should do and how they should do it. They want everyone to CONFORM. They fear those who are DIFFERENT.

For the record, the MAJORITY is 2 wolves and 1 sheep deciding whatā€™s for lunch. WAKE UP PEOPLE AND SMELL THE HYPOCRISY!

TRO_HeatMap_Orig.zip (21.1 KB)

That will depend on the break: itā€™s depth, duration; and quantity of breaks. There are several ways to measure the quality of a pattern, including clarity, which is a measure of how closely the pattern adheres to its definition. For a symmetrical triangle, clarity is reduced if in the midst of lower highs and higher lows, an errant higher high or lower low pops out.

But, that doesnā€™t negate the pattern, necessarily: it could simply mean thereā€™s an ineffectual fluke in an otherwise valid pattern. How price behaves after will be the determining factor. But did I take the short when price appeared to have broken the triangle? No, because at the break constituted the second touch for the lower trendline, and the second touch for the upper trendline didnā€™t occur until after; so there was no triangle at that point.

Sometimes I will redraw: if for example I draw close to close and it later becomes apparent that low to low or high to high is a more accurate rendering of the range the pair is moving in, Iā€™ll switch. In the case of the U/J triangle, the closes reduce clarity, while the lows and highs enhance it. Thereā€™s a bit of interpretive wiggle room here, maybe, but if a pattern is there, it is there, whether itā€™s closes or highs/lows. If someone was concerned about playing pattern breakouts conservatively (i.e. with the most assurance they can get that the break IS occurring), I would advise them to place their stop/limit orders with reference to the highs/lows.

Any pattern becomes invalid when its clarity is ruined : a breakout ruins clarity: a higher high and a lower low ruins a symmetrical triangleā€™s clarity. Price sometimes wanders out of clear patterns during times of low volume because of a lack of momentum: this can ruin clarity.

When clarity is disrupted, I may keep one line from the busted pattern around. On an upside break from a symmetrical triangle for example, the top trendline is toast, but the bottom trendline is still valid support that has not be negated. Nevertheless, clarity is gone, so the pattern is now irrelevant.

Also, consider that patterns can exist inside patterns: a descending triangle can exist within a symmetrical triangle on a shorter TF, etc. These micro-patterns can give clues to larger breakouts, or can hint at reversal points within the range of a larger, consolidating pattern.

Sorry, the dementia was kicking in again :smiley: Those are the .33 and .67 lines added to the fan fib (in MT4 you can add any level you want).

Check :
a) the speed lines off the swing high @ 213.95 on 08/06 to
b) swing low @ 202.55 on 08/13.
ā€¦the .33 line is serving as upper descendline trendline resistance since last Friday.

I may not have it drawn right ā€¦ I see no touches of that line during the descent. Looks like the touches are between the .25 fib fan and the .33 ā€¦ is that considered close enough, that it doesnā€™t actually touch the line?

YOUā€™RE THE ONE WHO DOESNā€™T GET IT AND DOESNā€™T WANT TO GET IT.

I offered a TRUCE via PM and you declined.

ā€œit is not about you making money.ā€ Thatā€™s DOUBLE SPEAK. If that were true then youā€™re website would NOT be a revenue stream. See itā€™s OK to do it the way you do it but you donā€™t like the way I do it so itā€™s not OK. Thatā€™s HYPOCRISY.

ā€œIf the provider has an affiliate program, I would be stupid not to use it, especially with my limited income. But that is not the criteria, the value of what is offered is the criteria.ā€ More DOUBLE SPEAK. Once again, itā€™s OK for you do it it but when I post my link I am labeled a SCAMMER and a SPAMMER.

I can ā€œread between the linesā€ and itā€™s all very clear.

OK, this makes sense & I think I was doing it right ā€¦ I am keeping previous lines, make them a different color, and only change the line when there are enough disruptions of the previous to ā€˜disrupt the clarityā€™. That is a good way of putting it.

Sheā€™s going for a 3rd test of the lows as we speak ā€¦ or maybe a break?

The TRO FX DASHBOARD EXT will allow the trader to enter just about any external indicator in your indicator folder and display if it is going up or down.

See 4xStar, I like to HELP PEOPLE, TOO. My degree was in Computer Science. I have been trading as long as I have been programming. That gives me an edge. I hate to see people spend hundreds or thousands of dollars on software, most of which is crap. Thatā€™s why I have posted hundreds of FREE indicators.

Traders should focus on trading and not programming. Since I can do both, I share. Itā€™s called PAYING IT BACK and PAYING IT FORWARD. Over the years, people have shown their appreciation by sending me gifts and donations. So as a THANK YOU, I send them indicators that I havenā€™t posted. There is no evil intention.

But you will see ONLY what you want to see.

TRO_DASHBOARD_EXT.zip (28.7 KB)

RTO I thought we were clear about you posting smaller charts. Its really annoying man. You could try creating a thread where you post those huge charts.

How about that truce?

We all seemed to agree a couple pages ago, and somehow got away from it. If we all share the motive of helping others: great. If there are ulterior motives for what we post: God knows. Letā€™s assume the best of one another because the goal, again, is to discuss strategies: no referral/affiliate links, no solicitations, no duplicity: [I]just comments on the pairs regarding what we see or how we trade them.[/I] In an environment of posts like that, any attempt by a contributor to divert attention elsewhere will be blatantly out-of-place and can be addressed openly for what it is.

When/if that post comes, it can be dealt with swiftly and resolutely. But for now, back to the pairs. TRO seems amenable to posting charts with dimensions that donā€™t break the thread framing, so that problem is now a non-problem.

Thanks again for speaking reasonably.

ā€œWe somehow got away from itā€ because that is what SOME PEOPLE want to do. They are HELL BENT on damaging my reputation. Must be EGO.

I appreciate you taking your time to stand up for me. Let me know if I can be of service to you.

He has several on BP but he also likes to come into all others and post his stuff to ā€œhelpā€,

TRO, I tried those indicators you posted below a few months ago, they may be good for some, they are not my style. So please, if you want to be a productive part of this thread, post your charts as thumbnails the way others do and offer some good input, not just ā€œsee???ā€ with one of your indicators. I for one do not see, the fib level one is completely confusing to me. Iā€™m sure there are those who find it useful ā€¦ but let people decide. You are starting to disrupt this thread.

If others find him too disruptive, let BP admin know, this is my last post on this subject (I hope), I want to get back to guppy analysis as she is at a very crucial point right now!

Once again, DOUBLE SPEAK.

My first posts in here were 100% ON TOPIC. Perhaps you donā€™t like my style of trading but as I mentioned before, the thread title says ā€œGBP/JPY WINNING STRATEGIESā€. It did NOT say, ā€œONLY MY GBP/JPY WINNING STRATEGIESā€ or ā€œLONG TERM GBP/JPY WINNING STRATEGIESā€.

Instead of focusing on my strategy, YOU MADE AN ASSUMPTION ABOUT ME AND MY INTENTIONS. YOU WERE PREJUDICED AGAINST ME. Just admit it. I was NOT given a fair opportunity.

I didnā€™t attack anyone. But I was attacked. So I defended. Itā€™s that simple.

If anyone disrupted this thread it was those who cast the first stones. But you want to blame me. THATā€™S HYPOCRISY.

There may be some slight variation in how we have it drawn, but the shadows on the 3H have touched off the .33 speed line several times over the range I mentioned without violating the line to the downside, and the closes on the 3H candle are repeatedly respecting the .382 fib fan line. So, the speed line is gauging the extremes of the candle, while the .382 fib fan line is gauging the closes. I donā€™t trade based off of these kinds of observations unless there something else actionable to complement them: they are just notes about price behavior.

Support might not be to the exact pip (the low may come a couple pips higher than the line, etc.) - these ā€œlinesā€ are just like free-drawn S/R: they are representative of zones of S/R, not single-pip, make-or-break thresholds.

Do we need to invite PipCrawler in for some arbitration sessions? :smiley: Cā€™mon guys.

cadarkitek, so as a trend trader what do you do now with the guppy? If she continues downward, you carry on as before ā€¦ but if she reverses here, then you just wait until ā€¦

she is back in an established uptrend?
or
she has clearly stopped the downtrend, is moving up, but not yet in an established uptrend? Do you take small positions, pips along the way, or just find another pair that meets your larger criteria?

And what for you defines the up or downtrend in the bigger picture?

If thereā€™s break here, 199.80, 199.20 are the next levels of interest to the downside. So far nothing but a brick wall with bulls throwing molten lead down from the rooftop, though.

Here we go againā€¦Handbags at dawn! :D:D (hopefully last time to use that line, but I love it.)

TRO, you like sayings and probably know this one[I]ā€¦ā€œyou can lead a horse to water, but you canā€™t make him(her) drinkā€[/I]ā€¦

There are just some mannerisms that people find offensive from whatever viewport they look at life throughā€¦not unique to someoneā€™s country though as you find this, & hypocrisy, everywhere in the world.

If each side needs to be last to get their point acrossā€¦do it through a PM and spare the rest of usā€¦I feel like Iā€™m at a tennis match, and my neckā€™s getting sore! :smiley:

H1 downside projections:

-1.382 fib 199.32

-1.618 fib 199.04

I tried to do that with 4xStar but she declined my offer of a TRUCE.

Daily downside projections.

Look to the left and youā€™ll see we are in previous downside projection territory.