Yes, it’s an ugly picture, too atrocious to post here
hey life is ugly post away hehehhee.
I hope everybody is doing good i worked all day and now settling in for some asian action.
Hmm … she is breaking down seriously now & I see no reason for it, although apparently M2P does since he said he bought a position “early” when she was still around 212.70. But he won’t tell us how he thought it was “early”. He is probably too busy with those alpacas…
Anyway … Jeb has run out of numbers to explain this … he will probably draw some new ones later tonight. So, I am not sure where she goes from here, this stomping of the pound that was triggered by Trichet this morning is either wildly overdone … or it was the start of something that was inevitable anyway. I have heard some people say the cable is headed to the 1.70’s and G-Y to under 200. I would not have thought that should happen this soon, but … maybe we will know more as we go into London open.
Or maybe not 
my advice… listen to Tess she is by far one of the smartest traders in this forum and her particular favorite is the guppy (i think) but with her resourses and her think tank team that al they do is trade full time when she says the pound is weak i tend to look for shorts.
just my opinion 
Baaaaaaaaaaa…
Early because she wasn’t well below the 50 and the 50 wasn’t well below the 200. She wasn’t cheap enough yet.
Oh, now I get it … when you said you were getting in early, I saw on the 15’ she was at the 200 … so I thought “it’s already touched the 200, can’t be this strategy…” But you were expecting her to go down further to set up the M2P. But … there is no assurance she would do that … she could just bounce around awhile on the 200 and head back up…
Ok … a bit like gambling, but I see what you are doing now and if you phase in, and are right half the time, it should work out in the end.
Once again, money management is the key. This play would not be for me, though … I either like to see a setup or not
But in this case I was watching other indicators which were wrong and your play was the right one. A big Baaaaa to you!
I just found Tess & co today in the alternate tech indicators thread … she has a really unique approach to the G-$ ! I like its simplicity. I didn’t know she also traded the guppy … which thread does she write about that one?
Unfortunately what the poound does seems to have little effect on its cross pairs … the G-C is climibing fast as the pound dollar sinks and usually the guppy goes opposite to the pound dollar … so it is a completely different play. I would really like to hear Tess’s take on that … if she plays it maybe she will post in here as well.
I’m out the guppy … even tho Jeb is now calling for a retrace to 212.85, I think all bets may be off as the entire world, it seems, are joining in the pound-stomping party …
I am short the pound tho
i think she used to talk about it alot in james’ 40-100 thread.
i guess this is why im new to the guppy coz to me the pound is real weak right now and the yen seems to be going strong. It seems like a short bias to me a no brainer if you will but again i dnt trade this monster so I dnt know her like you do.
Right … that is what is so confusing, the G-Y seems to march to a beat all her own. Sometimes the U-J will pull her up … other times she seems to follow the G-U (but not too often), sometimes she goes with the G-C, other times goes opposite … you just have to get to know her & her little whims.
Over in that Jo-Tess thread they are revolutionizing how I look at charts … this may be extremely valuable for our guppy friend, although at first I thought it was just for normal moving pairs like the GU and euro-$ … but now I am seeing validity for every pair … I’ll be testing a bit next week and let you know what I find. It is more a swing or position trading strategy since trades can be held for days or even longer … but within that there is also room for taking smaller frequent profits & hopping in and out.
I am still skeptical of Elijah’s “just buy and know she will go up up up”. If the pound really collapses, as some say she will, then the G-Y is not going to dizzying heights by herself. And … unless you have a humongous account, I see no reason to buy the infamous LL’s (loss leaders) and just hold them as a drain on the account. Unless you are trading multiple standard lots at a time, I don’t see that the interest is enough to offset tieup of capital and the dd.
So ideally I would like to find a way to buy the loss leaders much closer to the actual turning points… and these Jo-Tess charts may point the way to that.
BTW, maybe we should start a pool going on how long until Jeb throws in the towel and decides to analyze a different pair. This past week she seems to have blown through every scenario he devised … when he finally starting using the word “bullish” after weeks of only saying “bearish”, that is when she decides to pretend to rise, then make a dramatic drop back below 211 and fake out nearly everyone … except Andrew of course
It would take years to learn what Andrew knows about chart reading … but maybe this “simple plan” (the Jo-Tess strategy) will work well enough for those of us who are chart-pattern-challenged.
I shall post results of my demo trades starting next week … stay tuned to this channel.
you realize that the guppy is a cross pair of the gbp/usd usd/jpy right. They are permanantly fixed and from what i hear banks don’t trade crosses. The price is a product of for example buying gbp/usd and usd/jpy at the same time. Truthfully i dnt know the exact formula but you can accualy trade the guppy even if your broker doesnt offer it simply by trading these 2 at the same time.
As far as tess and her sister goes they are seriously very smart and successful. There ideas on s/r are proven. They look at present tence price action and see what levels are “important” They say right now they dn’t like this pair but im telling you when i first stumbled on their posts they were into the guppy. there techniques work.
Having said all this i will say that I am interested in learning this pair and will remain humble and open minded.
have a good weekend, john
Rhodytrader gave a clear explanation on crosses on a thread I started on Newbie Island called:
“Does Speculation Move A Cross?”
The thread is not that old, so shouldn’t be more than a few pages back.
And yes… I think we are aware of the two majors that make the guppy.:D:rolleyes:;)
And yes… I think we are aware of the two majors that make the guppy
that comment was directed towards 4xstar coz of a comment about there is no correlation between the pairs.
Unfortunately what the poound does seems to have little effect on its cross pairs … the G-C is climibing fast as the pound dollar sinks and usually the guppy goes opposite to the pound dollar … so it is a completely different play.
thats all i didnt mean any disrespect
I was just teasing.:p;)
what’s the name of the tess/jocelyn thread? I can’t seem to find it even though it’s probably right in front of my nose.
Thanks!! Should be a good one.
This week marks the beginning of my implementing the strategy learned from Jo-Tess in the
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/6632-alternative-technical-templates.html
thread. With my own modifications since they do not explain everything they do, only the basics.
I think I explained earlier what I plan to do but in case it is buried, here it is in a nutshell:
I still plan to only buy, not short the GY. I will short other pairs. I do not have them all worked out yet, but as a preliminary plan I would only go long the Yen crosses and only go short the Euro, G-CHF and for now, the pound.
And the way it is done is by using the 4 hour chart, drawing my own s/r lines and the occasional trendline and using the autopivot indicator to draw in weekly & monthly s/r’s and pivot points.
On the 4 hour when I spot a potential turning point in the direction I want to trade that particular pair (and I also have an indicator that will put an arrow at turning points, which I can share if anyone needs it) then I draw a colored ellipse around the potential turning point. I zoom in to the 60 min and see if price action as determined by candle shape alone is confirming anything.
Then zoom into the 15 min to spot an early trend change confirmation and probable exit point if I am wrong.
With this method I will use generous but hard stops.
Once I am sure the trend has changed, I enter the trade and do the usual, buying pullbacks and setting quick tp’s at 20, 30 pips while letting at least one position run with a long trailing stop.
Reverse for a short, obviously.
I’ve been backtesting this on nearly every pair for the past few days and it is astounding how accurately it works … and I am equally amazed I never noticed this before.
Once a trend change is correctly identified, back testing shows that the runs (on the 4 hour) usually last 1 -3 weeks and yield 100 - 400 or more pips (the guppy yielding the most of course). Within this there are the numerous possibilities to take the small 20, 30 pip trades along the way.
This is amazingly simple and requires no knowledge of anything other than candles & how to draw s/r and some basic trendlines. Even one of my favorites, fibonacci will be used very rarely.
I’ll be testing it in a demo account started for that purpose and also in my real account & my daughter, who is just starting to learn forex, will be testing it as well.
I’ll let you know … but this could be the missing link to trading the guppy without sweating out those too-large and too-long drawdowns.
As to the possibility that the guppy may start a huge run down, back below 200 or even lower, well this strategy will either not be signalling entries or if it does, the runs will be much shorter. At that point maybe some of the other yen crosses, like AUD/JPY will be doing better.
Of course if the guppy does manage to do a humongous pullback, that would only be a gift … because sooner or later she will come roaring back. Look what happened on March 17 … and with the above described strategy, that trend change was as clear as clear could be.
And those arrows I mentioned that my indicator draws on the chart … on the daily chart the arrows appeared on July 20, 2007 (go short), March 17, 2008 (go long) and July 22, 2008 (go short). Within those longer trends were many more shorter ones marked by the arrows on the 4h and 1h.
The arrows are not magical … they are lagging indicators, but in conjunction with the above described, they can act as leading indicators. At least that’s what it looks like now. I’ll know more in a few weeks … stay tuned
First day using the new strategy and it has kept me out of buying the GY, where normally I would have been adding at these levels. Plus I had a couple of good trades on the UJ and GC (short). So far, so good … and so simple, me likey. 
If this keeps working well, I will start calling trades I am placing in real time. At the moment if you want to follow, there was a GC short when it hit the 2.0780’s early this morning and it is re-testing that level again & again … a good place for 20-30 pip scalping even with the large spread.
The guppy is not buyable yet … whoaa as I am typing she is in freefall again, so if she bounces at or above the last low of 209.70, maybe one or two little positions could be taken. But there is no probability of anything at the moment. It looks like the pound-stomping party has not ended yet.
I have the 209.38 area as a hard stop no matter where you got in. And any positions I add down here, I am setting tp’s at +30 max. If and when she shows clear signs of moving back up, then I can get some buy & hold positions.
I’m deducing all this from 2 indicators: candles and my own s/r lines … so don’t make the mistake of thinking I know what I’m doing :D. But if it keeps working out, I will let you know … this could be beyond Trading for Dummies and enter into Trading for the Terminally Clueless. But if it works & keeps you out of trouble and on the right side of the good runs … I don’t care what you call it.
So the pound is in freefall, GU just went below 1.90 (as predicted by one analyst I follow whom I chose to ignore this time :D:D), the guppy just went south of 209 and my dog just moved in with my cat. :eek:
The good news is the new chart kept me out of guppy longs except for a couple which were taken out at my stop and somewhat compensated for by some scalping I did earlier. when I compare this small loss to some of the gynormous ones I have endured … this is better!
Looking back the signals to short the GU and E$ yesterday could not have been clearer if they had been flashing red lights … but I’m still new at following this chart and did miss them. C’est la vie. Next time.
At the moment there is nothing to do, I’d love to short the G-C and probably should. but should have done it at the high between 10-11 pm ET. Ain’t hindsight grand?
GY is bouncing now, she may have hit her bottom. We’ll see how this hourly candle ends at London open. I don’t think she likes it down here, but she may have to get used to it … something fishy goin’ on with $'s and oil…
A great new post by Andrew:
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/15665-so-what-really-happened-last-week.html
the less I know. I understand that this knew method you are using is still in the demo stage, but if you are OK with it, would you mind posting one of your demo charts with a couple of notes regarding your thought process on the trade? Thanks, Jerry.