Yes … why is it I get the impression in some threads that shall be nameless there is no longer interest in reasoning, rationality or logic, it seems more important to just [I]believe[/I] 
Well , she has finally broken above the 205.30. I got a few short scalps in from the 205’s to the upper 204’s but now for the moment she is off to the races northward. I just hope for that short setup in the 207 area or better. I am long for the moment, but just riding along, no commitment.
I think this retracement to 207+ is looking more likely, the UJ looks like it wants to go even higher as well. I am scalping on the way up, but hoping to take a good short position once the retracement is finished … hopefully I can recognize when that is!
I’m taking one short now before the close just in case she gaps down over the weekend, in which case it will be a scalp. She may make a try for 207+ next week but I’m with the majority who seem to think she will re-visit the 200 level, possibly below.
Check out the weekly chart…
Since 0600 ET (3H chart) the Guppy has been dragging the .33 speedline built off a fib fan for the decline from 215.89 to 202.54.
There’s still a rising wedge here, though its construction is different than the one we discussed previously. I’ll post a chart or two here in a bit to give detail.
I’ve been flat all day (sunshine, family, outside) after my last half stopped out for +25 @ 205.05 yesterday afternoon, but think I’ll pick up a short before the end of the session.
Hey fella�s!
Got a nudge from someone to stick my head round the corner & just clarify a couple points.
4Xstar, nice to see you�re looking to incorporate some of the ideas from the [I][B]Alternative Technical Templates [/B][/I]thread into your own trade model.
The foundation & template of how we observe these instruments are based around the simple concepts of supply-demand & momentum flows.
One of the most effective (for us) angles to engage the markets from a technical slant is via the plotting of support & resistance zones.
It�s not exactly what you�d term as a �system� or method, but more of a template or guide in which to focus our attention. The beauty of price action is, that it�s totally flexible & acts purely on the back of dominant herd activity (psychology).
Therefore, the zones & levels are constantly evolving. The larger 60 & 240min timeframe levels will usually hold good for an extended period of time, but we also plot the sub hourly 15 & 5min zones as required, & these are generally more reactionary & aggressive in their behavior.
This method of interacting with price action allows us to remain flexible yet responsive to the ever-changing behavior traits, which these sensitive instruments are subject to.
We don�t use indicators in any form. That includes math based price aids such as: Fibonacci, Pivots, Elliott Wave, Wolf waves or any other black magic voodoo.
Everything worth trading is reflected in the price bars (candles) & is a direct result of market psychology. If the level or zone represents a value long or short entry, then as long as the risk is acceptable, the trade is valid.
If enough supply exists at a specific level on the technical chart, price will drop. If sufficient demand exists at a specific level on the technical chart, price will rise. How far & how aggressively price moves is dependant upon the strength of the participation of money & the extent of the fear/greed mechanism.
That part of the equation is somewhat unknown at the outset, [B]but decent money & risk management measures will direct the trade as long as you manage to get aboard at a value entry zone.[/B] I�ll highlight that last bit to ensure the message gets across �… 
That, in it�s basic form, is what we�re all about on that thread. Sure, there�s a little more to it than that with regard triggers, set-ups & passive/aggressive strategy models etc, but the technical groundwork & research is wholly based around the simple concepts mentioned above.
Triggers/set-ups/strategies are very much individual ownership entities. If you got yourself a valid, consistent template from which to plot your execution models around, then you can use whatever triggers you prefer.
It�s not particularly [B]what[/B] you use, but [B]how & where [/B]you use it, which will determine your ongoing success in this game.
Good luck with the new addition to your trade planning, I hope you give it the time & attention it deserves…
And me! I’m female
Got a nudge from someone to stick my head round the corner & just clarify a couple points.
Thanks for dropping by & giving some valuable input.
One other thing I learned in your thread the other day is about the “congestion zones” where price can stall for minutes, hours or even days. And often these tend to recur at the same levels.
I am using the draw rectangle tool on MT4 to highlight these areas and today they helped keep me out of trades I might otherwise have taken based on other factors, because basically I saw as long as price was fooling around within the congestion area, I really had no clue where it was going next.
Low probability trade. I would not have seen that so clearly before.
This was only week 1 incorporating this template and I have a long way to go, but so far it has saved me from taking some not-so-good trades and not losing money is just about as good as making it 
4Xstar, nice to see you�re looking to incorporate some of the ideas from the [I][B]Alternative Technical Templates [/B][/I]thread into your own trade model.
The foundation & template of how we observe these instruments are based around the simple concepts of supply-demand & momentum flows.
One of the most effective (for us) angles to engage the markets from a technical slant is via the plotting of support & resistance zones.
It�s not exactly what you�d term as a �system� or method, but more of a template or guide in which to focus our attention. The beauty of price action is, that it�s totally flexible & acts purely on the back of dominant herd activity (psychology).
Therefore, the zones & levels are constantly evolving. The larger 60 & 240min timeframe levels will usually hold good for an extended period of time, but we also plot the sub hourly 15 & 5min zones as required, & these are generally more reactionary & aggressive in their behavior.
This method of interacting with price action allows us to remain flexible yet responsive to the ever-changing behavior traits, which these sensitive instruments are subject to.
We don�t use indicators in any form. That includes math based price aids such as: Fibonacci, Pivots, Elliott Wave, Wolf waves or any other black magic voodoo.
Everything worth trading is reflected in the price bars (candles) & is a direct result of market psychology. If the level or zone represents a value long or short entry, then as long as the risk is acceptable, the trade is valid.
If enough supply exists at a specific level on the technical chart, price will drop. If sufficient demand exists at a specific level on the technical chart, price will rise. How far & how aggressively price moves is dependant upon the strength of the participation of money & the extent of the fear/greed mechanism.
That part of the equation is somewhat unknown at the outset, [B]but decent money & risk management measures will direct the trade as long as you manage to get aboard at a value entry zone.[/B] I�ll highlight that last bit to ensure the message gets across �…
That, in it�s basic form, is what we�re all about on that thread. Sure, there�s a little more to it than that with regard triggers, set-ups & passive/aggressive strategy models etc, but the technical groundwork & research is wholly based around the simple concepts mentioned above.
Triggers/set-ups/strategies are very much individual ownership entities. If you got yourself a valid, consistent template from which to plot your execution models around, then you can use whatever triggers you prefer.
It�s not particularly [B]what[/B] you use, but [B]how & where [/B]you use it, which will determine your ongoing success in this game.
Good luck with the new addition to your trade planning, I hope you give it the time & attention it deserves…
Good one 4XStar. Until the breakout yesterday that has really applied to EU all week. Once you stay out of the low probability trades your confidence will grow exponentially as you have fewer trades turning against you for ‘unexplained’ reasons. Of course humility is essential as this market is never tamed. Nevertheless simple observation of price action gave good opportunities on EU and GU yesterday (probably others too but I wasnt looking)
And me! I’m female
Tymen said you were female when I refered to you as “he” Sorry bout that.
Jocelyn and Tony Im glad you stopped by. I always always learn from you “guys” and I really apreciate all your top notch quality posts 
That’s ok, I like to let people think I’m just ‘one of the guys’ in the beginning as it brings out some interesting commentary
Jocelyn and Tony Im glad you stopped by. I always always learn from you “guys” and I really apreciate all your top notch quality posts
Yes! Welcome Tony, thanks for your comments and Jocelyn that last post was stellar. You have no idea how much I appreciate your input.
I look forward to next week with all the new things I have learned … I feel I am moving closer, closer … to really getting this!
And yes, I shall stay humble, even when my wealth from forex trading is legendary :D:D
That’s ok, I like to let people think I’m just ‘one of the guys’ in the beginning as it brings out some interesting commentary
Yeah, I kind of picked up on that. That’s why I never referred to you as Linda and call alot of the other guys by their name if I know it.
Now that you know that women are superior in the market:D, you don’t have to play a spy anymore.
I first knew back when you called Elija’s children “adorable”. I thought FXstar is a lady or a kind of cake that’s given away at the holidays.
So for now on your Linda.
Yes, the astute will pick up on my little slips I once said “oh, gross!” to a something that all the men in the forum thought was really funny. That blew my cover as well. :eek:
There’s going to be a BOJ announcement at midnight Monday night ET which could affect the guppy & no one is sure which way. She is in a trading range at the moment & until she decides what to do next, it’s a good place to scalp for 20-30 pips, but I don’t see any sign of a clear direction.
Consensus is still that she is headed quite a bit lower … but no one’s crystal ball seems to say when…
Jeb next door still thinks she needs to visit the 207+ area before falling to 200or below. But … she does what she pleases. To me it looks like there needs to be a decisive break below 204.74 to suggest further downside mmomentum.
Andrew should show up later with his expert analysis, maybe that will shed more light on this week.
Technically I expect further downside after this congestion zone from the weekend/Obon holiday in Japan because of the continuation rising wedge, but price just ranged out of the wedge with no volatility, so the potential breakout may be nullified, or perhaps delayed.
The BOJ meeting (rates unchanged, almost certainly) and Shirikawa’s speech (more important at this point) may or may not turn out a JPY-negative reaction; but they are certainly not something to trade blindly through. I just closed out a short with some modest profit, and intend to remain flat until the announcement. In the meantime, there are plenty of other pairs…
Yep, EUR-CHF setting up nicely for a short today … plenty more fish in the pond.
Techies aside, do you think BOE will cut rates soon? or force to hold because inflation?
It seems a not so strong sterling may be good for GB economy recovery.
I don’t know, fundies are pointing to a lower cable. How will this change our guppy gal?
There is a very interesting post in the FX analyst area with projections as to strength/weakness in each of the currencies (not pairs, the currencies themselves)
Ah, just got home…
Consider this: Problems in British Banking System - Wall Street Column - Jesse Eisinger - Portfolio.com
As quoted here (one of my favorite economics/market-related blogs):
EconomPic Data: Pound Getting Pounded
And for reference:
EconomPic Data: UK CPI… Look Familar?
Thank you guys.
Now I have some reading to do.
Been short on the GJ since Friday @ 205.61, I’m looking to take some profits tomorrow down at 204.00 going down to 203.00. Any body else with an entry on this pair?
A had some activity with shorts taken above 206, closed out @ 205.70 this morning because I wouldn’t be around to monitor. Turns out the move out of the rising wedge coalesced as expected, even if I was flat. I’m waiting for Shirakawa at this point, and then I’ll reassess the continuation that the exit from the wedge seems to be signaling.