An interesting read…
BNZ Currency Research [New Zealand 9-10-2015]15508.pdf (507 KB)
Not sure if I’m allowed to post this so please accept my apologies if it has to be deleted.
NZDUSD I know but very interesting and gives a good medium term perspective
Good video,
it shows the long- to short-term perspective, starting from the NZD/USD monthly, then down to
the weekly, and finishing with the daily chart.
thanks, UK Kev… I like the channel’s music … Bob Marley and trading: quite a mix!
I really think the strength of this move is down to the correlation with the SPX500, run an overlay on your charts and you will see the AUD and NZD being dragged up by the strong bull move currently going on. Commodity currencies being pulled along with the rise in shares and risk on sentiment that brings. I will watch the share index closely and gauge my re entry by a confirmed turn around there. With earnings season starting on Tuesday we could see large moves either way next week. Just about every chat room I frequent is filled with people patieintly waiting for the turn on the S&P and Gold. Stay patient and wait for a confirmed turn and eventual resumption if a bull or if a bear then watch the correlations and enjoy the ride.
Absolutely, Kev… I watch not only the S&P500 but the FTSE100 (which I also trade), and the Nikkei225 and German DAX… I have also started keeping an eye on US (WTI) Crude Oil since it went down to about $38 and was trading it long-term upward but when I realised its strong correlation to the FTSE100 (where I am long-term short) then I cut that trade. So understanding correlated pairs and instruments is absolutely essential, as you yourself have been recounting…
In the thread about ‘market conditions’ here in Forextown, i posted an article I read today on the Financial Times, which talks exactly about this lack of conviction in the markets for either a ‘risk on’ or a ‘risk off’ sentiment.
Some economic calendars do not list this event (e.g. DailyFX), some do and with a ‘High importance’ status (e.g. Investing.com); on two websites it was listed, but one had it at 9.10pm and one at 9.30pm…
After GBP/NZD getting yet again beaten down today, this event could bring some clarity ahead of the next (28th Oct.) RBNZ meeting/rate decision with regard to forward guidance on monetary policy and the NZD/USD exchange rate, especially in relation to global dairy prices lifting and the booming Auckland housing bubble…
Stay tuned and
Stay safe.
Happy trading.
I’ve just been looking at that myself, if he is anything but dovish this pair could go a lot lower IMHO
Agreed…
200-day moving average (daily chart) is around 2.16…
Governor Wheeler says that further rate cuts are possible…
here is the initial reaction on NZD/USD (5m chart)…
The speech continues…
NZD/USD is recovering from its initial tumble…
Lets see what Chinese CPI brings (if we can believe a word of it 
I have to say this pair is getting more and more confusing to trade.
[B]I know…
watch this from 22’18’’ to 23’50’’:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpWP0EAcsw4
Here, John Kicklighter (Chief Currency Strategist at DailyFX.com) gives his
assessment of GBP/NZD…
[/B]
Thanks for posting the video. I hope he is correct and GBP/NZD starts heading up. It certainly has been beaten down lately.
Well Wheeler tried to be dovish and it didn’t work. Last time he tried and failed, an interest rate cut followed. I suspect we might hear some more jawboning from him to lower it first if the Chinese figures next week don’t do it for him.
Absolutely right, Kev…
We are getting closer to the 200-day moving average, so if this is a correction then the prevailing GBP/NZD trend will resume…Often I have observed a turn occurring not too close to the 200-day moving average, so I am just watching for this to occur shortly - and there may not be a logical reason, necessarily (orders may kick in at a certain price).
Today, Sam Coventry posted another GBP/NZD article, which I would like to share with you…
The chart of that pair during the past 4 weeks certainly doesn’t suggest any confusion, in fact quite the contrary.
This guy attempted to steer you in the correct direction 2 weeks ago & since that date nothing has changed. It’s still pressured to the downside until it tells you otherwise.
True…
It also depends on the context, of course… (long-term (weekly/monthly), this is still a bull trend).
As long as risk is managed properly, one way or the other, short-/medium-/long-term,
everyone is happy
Ah, that oft quoted phrase…context!
Of course that may well be the case. But I highly doubt there’s anyone on here with the nous, financial clout or stomach to hold net longs whilst sitting patiently through an 1800 pip & change decline.
The broker graveyard is littered with the corpses of accounts attempting to play the dangerous ‘who blinks first’ game with the markets!