Thanks for taking the time to type out your thoughts.
Market analysis is very difficult and I’ve had my struggles just like everyone else. My thesis is wildly different from yours but I respect anyone that even makes an attempt to analyze the markets and puts their opinion out their for scrutiny.
Here’s a bit more about my background and my trading / investing philosophy, which will help provide context for my thesis further down:
I take a secular view on the markets and my thesis has been the same for years. I’ve been writing about it since I joined this forum in Oct '24. I wrote a final update to the thread last week with my thoughts and how I see the markets going forward (warning: it’s a pretty dark forecast):