Nice idea but I will be honest I dont like to much. By the time you are looking to enter price will be over sold and about to retrace. Although there is not much for support in there that does not mean the market will not create it. It just seems price will have moved to far by then IMO. I did trade the gap and reject off pairty and made a little change. Then thought I would be slick and trade the bounce off the 61.8 fib level so I broke all my rules and went long only to give some profits back. I am still up for the week and paid to learn a lesson as to why we have rules. I was correct on direction but timing was off so I paid up. Now I am back short off the 50% retrace on this up move as we are at the daily pivot point along with a nice little trend line forming since the open this week. Still has a little to go to get to the line but risk is well in my target to open. With my stop above the trend line in case LO has something else to say today. Time will tell not my favorite of trades but I think its good in sink with higher timeframes and enough confluence to get in. Since it is late here I this guy got to get rest I will not be around for LO. Hopefully my stop is safe. As of now only about 10 more pips to go to move stop to be so at least a free trade might be here soon. I also just traded my blackberry for an iphone since my broker still can not set up my blackberry to trade on. Hopefully soon I can get my phone in sink to trade off and notify me when trades are setting up. That will be nice then I dont have to rely on my super cool decoder ring as much.
Yipes, haha! I like what you said about sticking to the rules. Just learned the hard way, I guess?
So you’re still super bearish on Aussie, huh? Thanks for pointing out that trend line, I’m keeping my eye on it too.
Its not that I am bearish on the Aussie its that I can not seem to see bullish setups as well as I can bearish setups. Might be a physiological thing. I dont know but does make things easier when you have a predetermined direction on a predetermined pair before I ever open my charts. I either have a trade or I dont simple as that. Makes my life simple and we all like simple.
Also I cant short the Aussie into extinction by going long. I figure it is the only way I can own a continent on my quest for world domination.
I know what you mean! I feel exactly the same way about euro pairs. Good to know I’m not alone with this sort of “physiological thing” haha. Good luck on your quest for world domination!
Might be going against the grain on this one, but I do believe the increased possibility of QE3 could be a game-changer for AUD/USD. Here’s my AUD/USD trade idea for this week!
Word on the street is that weak U.S. data could push the Fed to announce QE3 next week so I’ll be buying that rumor with my AUD/USD long trade.
You see, the U.S. just released a disappointing retail sales figure for May, printing its second monthly consecutive decline and confirming that households aren’t really in a spending mood these days.
The possibility of more easing from the Fed could lead to a spike in inflation, which explains why traders are scurrying to buy gold and other precious metals for the past couple of days. Since gold acts as a hedge against inflation and the Aussie is positively correlated to gold prices, AUD/USD could draw further support from the commodity price rally.
As for technicals, I’m keeping a close eye on this ascending triangle on AUD/USD’s 1-hour time frame. The pair is sitting right at the rising trend line or bottom of the triangle just as stochastic crawled out of the oversold zone.
With the pair making higher lows and about to make its fourth test of parity, I figured that Aussie bulls are gathering momentum for a potential upside breakout.
Read more: AUD/USD: Positioning Ahead of Potential QE3 | Forex Blog: Playing with ComDolls
I’d love to hear what you think of this idea!
Is that a bearish wedge I see on the 1-hour chart? It looks like it! After breaking above 1.0100 yesterday, it looks like the bulls are having trouble making new highs. A bearish divergence and an overbought Stochastic signal sure isn’t helping the bulls either. Will the resistance make way for a break below the wedge?
AUD/USD made such a strong drop last week, but does it still have more room to fall? Several technical signals (bullish divergence, resistance-turned-support, and the 61.8% Fib) are lining up at parity and it seems to be holding like a boss… for now.
Saw the same thing earlier today as well. I have been too scared to hold my positions, however, and have forgone a nice run already unfortunately. :28:
Hi Happypip, I am long on AUSUSD at 1.0035 and taking this trade as carry trade. while my target will be 1.0500, stop loss below 0.9900.
I watched an interesting video on another website yesterday looking at AUDUSD using Elliot Wave Theory that suggests a move back to around 1.0200 before dropping back to .9200
I’m currently short AUD with my trade opened at 1.0055, Stop Loss at 1.0250 PT currently at .9915
I see this one as a bit more long term than my usual trades and happy to ride it out for a little bit, I don’t think the AUD has too much more upward movement left in it at the moment. I am still very much a noob though so my reading of the play could be off by a long way. Looking at the 4 hour chart though 1.0200 and 1.000 still seem to pretty strong support and resistance. I will wait and see what comes out of the EU meeting on Thursday
I think HappyPip has already seen this, but’s still worth putting up here.
Friday was an interesting day.
That was a pretty wild day. Waiting to see if I can get short. We will see at the price I would like. Actually I little higher so I will proceed with caution. Momentum could have been rocked with that move. COT data suggests we may see higher prices at least this week but I do not take that data to solid. As day to day we can see alot. Happy trading everyone
I was short during the Asian session this morning but now the AUD is range bound and it may indeed start to go higher again. I got stopped out with a small profit.
Inflation data in AUS was benign so that’s not good for the bulls but events in Europe counter that. That’s provided the EUD continues to rise.
It’s no wonder the Aussie bulls are having trouble breaking above 1.0250. It was a strong support level in the past! The doji on the daily chart confirms the resistance at the former support level, but how long can it keep the Aussie bulls at bay?
It might break higher tonight. Much depends on Europe though I reckon.
Yesterday’s little red candle looks like a bullish ‘rest’ candle to me.
I think the EU is the big thing here and whether or not they manage to stabilise the situation over there.
Aww, that’s too bad. What’s your take on AUD this week?
Good call! It’s halfway towards your target now. Did you move your stops? Or add to your position, maybe?
I’m a cautious bull but again I don’t like holding for too long. Politically and economically there is deterioration but if China and Europe pick up we’ll still be ok -(us Aussies). Government policy is making a gradual mess of the economy.
it just popped through the 1.03 mark…wohoo