A couple of hours ago AUD/USD strongly broke above the falling trend line that’s been holding since early this month. Interestingly, the pair is sporting an evening star-like patter on the 4-hour chart.
Is it time to go long on the Aussie, or are we seeing a fakeout? It’s a lot like bobmaninc’s chart, actually. 
My trade idea is up, folks! A bit different from the previous chart I posted, but still a retracement play. Check it!
After trading USD/CAD and NZD/USD ranges for the longest time, I’m finally giving AUD/USD a shot!
As we all know, the Aussie has been weakening against the Greenback since the start of the month thanks to weak commodities and growth concerns in the euro zone. AUD/USD is down 5.69% as of writing and even touched new 2012 lows yesterday!
I’m thinking that I can still jump in AUD/USD’s downtrend since nothing much has changed in Australia’s fundamental landscape. For one, concerns on Greece and the euro zone are likely to escalate since we’re still not seeing concrete action from the European leaders.
Then, China’s HSBC PMI signaled more contraction in the manufacturing industry at 48.7 (vs. 49.3) in May while gold prices are still near its steep lows.
On the technical side, I’m looking to jump in on the trend by entering at the .9800 level. That area not only coincides with the falling trend line, but it’s also lining up with the 38.2% and 50% Fib levels. Aside from that, stochastic is also in the oversold territory!
Read more: Riding the AUD/USD Downtrend: First Position Triggered! | Forex Blog: Playing with ComDolls
What’s up, comdoll buddies! I know I didn’t end up with a ton of profits on my AUD/USD trade last week, but I hope you still consider my analysis.
Here’s an inverse head and shoulders pattern that seems to be forming on AUD/USD’s 4-hour chart. Could it mean that the pair’s downtrend is over? After all, we did hear some rumors that China could be mulling further rate cuts, which could eventually provide a boost for Australia’s export sector.
The pattern is approximately 150 pips in height, which suggests that the breakout to the upside could also be as much as 150 pips. That means the rally could carry on right until the 1.0000 major psychological resistance, so I’d definitely keep a close watch on this pair.
Anyone sharing the same view? Or do you think the Aussie has room to fall?
I agree with you and i am also looking for break to go long with AUD/USD for the target 0.9975
but the stochastic just heading down south from overbought territory.
If it is going down out of overbrought territory and price is going up that tells me its not over bought and is not done heading north
I hope your wrong Happy pip but I dont think so. I took a short last night looking to retest the 9800 figure but thanks to tropical storm Beryl that been over my head the last few days my internet when out so my short is just kind of floating in the wind. At least I do have a stop in place that is why they are so important you just never know what will happen.
Good luck to all my week might be over already 
All latest ABS’S STAS against China look A-OK, it’s goid to b GOOD!
Careful though, a comdoll buddy of mine pointed out a bearish divergence on both NZD/USD and AUD/USD. It can be seen on their 4-hour time frames. Setting a buy stop order sounds safe enough though. If it breaks, then you’re in. If not, no dice. Keep me posted on what you decide to do, ayt?
Are you looking at the 4-hour time frame also? There’s even a bearish divergence if you look at its recent highs! A bit confused here, actually.
Where do you think it’ll go this week?
Yikes, stay safe and dry! It looks like it broke below .9800 already and there’s a bearish divergence on the 4-hour, so there could still be hope for this short trade. Where’s your stop?
Shorting here? I’m looking for a retest of the .9700 area if it stays below the resistance of .9802. Caution would be taken due to the oversold nature of the stochs.
Yeah, I’m feeling extra cautious because of the stochastic on the 1-hour, too. Maybe it’s suggesting that price could pull up a bit first, possibly until that support/resistance level you marked (pink line), before dropping until .9700.
Thanks for sharing your charts!
My stop was at 9910. Just hope it holds. If not oh well. I do see price going to 9600 as long as it can break and hold below the 9800 wall. This level seems to be a tuff one for price to get past.
Good call! Looks like it’s headed all the way down to your PT!
No problem happypip. So I got me 80 pips on that one. Price rode all the way down to PT of .9700. You think another short rentry would be in order after alittle pullback? I’m seeing a bit of bullish divergence on the indicators on the daily charts (RSI & Stochs).
Looks like my PT was just taken out thanks to NFP. 300+ pips on the week 1 trade 20 pip stop. I am loving it 
Congrats! Now let’s go start June strong!
Looks like Big Pippin is on to something when he pointed out AUD/USD’s falling channel. Thing is, the .9800 handle is right near the top WATR level that we marked yesterday! Will the major psychological handle provide a strong resistance this week?
I like it my chart looks a little different. I guess it is how I drew my trend line. Never the less I got in due to rejection off a short term resistance and the 9800 along with the trend line had on my chart. Not to mention the pin bars that set up with the doji forming on your chart. I tried to get in at the 50% retrace of the doji’s wick but as always I am late on my entry. Not by much but thats the difference from a 25 pip stop to a 35-40 pip stop. However I was able to get the stop to breakeven. I am in a little drawdown as we speak but I am again targeting the 9600 level. Not sure if I will get it so I will tighten up my stop again at 9700. Here is a shot of my chart with entry
