Happy Corner: Aussie (AUD) pairs

I watched an interesting video on another website yesterday looking at AUDUSD using Elliot Wave Theory that suggests a move back to around 1.0200 before dropping back to .9200

I’m currently short AUD with my trade opened at 1.0055, Stop Loss at 1.0250 PT currently at .9915

I see this one as a bit more long term than my usual trades and happy to ride it out for a little bit, I don’t think the AUD has too much more upward movement left in it at the moment. I am still very much a noob though so my reading of the play could be off by a long way. Looking at the 4 hour chart though 1.0200 and 1.000 still seem to pretty strong support and resistance. I will wait and see what comes out of the EU meeting on Thursday

Its time to short?

I think HappyPip has already seen this, but’s still worth putting up here.

Friday was an interesting day.

That was a pretty wild day. Waiting to see if I can get short. We will see at the price I would like. Actually I little higher so I will proceed with caution. Momentum could have been rocked with that move. COT data suggests we may see higher prices at least this week but I do not take that data to solid. As day to day we can see alot. Happy trading everyone

I was short during the Asian session this morning but now the AUD is range bound and it may indeed start to go higher again. I got stopped out with a small profit.

Inflation data in AUS was benign so that’s not good for the bulls but events in Europe counter that. That’s provided the EUD continues to rise.

It’s no wonder the Aussie bulls are having trouble breaking above 1.0250. It was a strong support level in the past! The doji on the daily chart confirms the resistance at the former support level, but how long can it keep the Aussie bulls at bay?

It might break higher tonight. Much depends on Europe though I reckon.

Yesterday’s little red candle looks like a bullish ‘rest’ candle to me.

I think the EU is the big thing here and whether or not they manage to stabilise the situation over there.

Aww, that’s too bad. What’s your take on AUD this week?

Good call! It’s halfway towards your target now. Did you move your stops? Or add to your position, maybe?

I’m a cautious bull but again I don’t like holding for too long. Politically and economically there is deterioration but if China and Europe pick up we’ll still be ok -(us Aussies). Government policy is making a gradual mess of the economy.

it just popped through the 1.03 mark…wohoo

False break-out…be careful!

Price has been creeping up through resistance, I’m thinking the focus right now is on risk sentiment and the EURO interest rate decision tomorrow. Any break-outs are to be taken as false breakouts. The pair has been consolidating since beginning of this month. Based on the dojis and the bearish divergences shown by the indicators, I’m thinking we’re looking for a short setup. I’m watching this level pretty carefully, I’m thinking a straddle play would also be a legitimate option depending on how the price is going to progress from this point. Here are the daily chart and the hourly chart of the pair that I’m eyeing. What’s your take happy pip? :10:

I’m seeing a bearish divergence on the 50% Fib, former support, and 1.0250 minor psychological level on the daily. And there are a bunch of reversal candlesticks (dojis and spinning tops) right there, too.

Those technical signals are lining up for a short trade but it’s tough to tell how the NFP could affect all this. I’m thinking we’re gonna see a strong figure which could be dollar bullish this time since this could ease QE3 speculations.

I’m sitting this one out though since I’ll spend the rest of the week enjoying the 4th of July celebrations. Are you guys gonna play this pair today?

Yeah, I think you should sit back and enjoy your successes for last quarter! I’m sure it’s all well deserved :slight_smile:

I’ve already set up to play this, but looks like on the hourly I’m seeing a Bullish Engulfing candlestick formation at major support as well as the oscolliators signalling out of oversold territory. Don’t know if it’s gonna break down right now, but if it does, I’ve got a short entry position at 1.02363 and SL at 1.02866 and PT : 1.01271 R/R (1:2).

Has AUD/USD finally found resistance at the 1.0300 major psychological handle? By the looks of that bearish divergence and overbought signal on the daily time frame, it sure seems so! On top of that, the 50% Fib coincides with a former support level, which could be holding as strong resistance now.

Growth concerns in China, along with ongoing euro zone debt woes and weak U.S. jobs data, could keep risk taking at bay and this could keep the higher-yielding Aussie southbound.

Was anyone able to short at 1.0300?

Hi Happy,

$1.0270 seemed to be a barrier. I have had several small short trades. Your negative assesment is pretty much on the money I think. The only think to worry about if you are short is whether or not Ben Bernanke decides to pull out his Bazooka. I still think he will wait for things to get real bad before acting.

I short AudUsd now.

Here is my setup

Nice! Did you hold on even until the FOMC minutes release? Raking in the pips now, I bet!

Hi Happy,

I’m still way too stupid to manage that! :59:

Markets have been very volatile and I have been changing my view daily. Now everybody has turned bearish again. FOMC and Chinese data are starting to make it look clear cut but you never know. Money printing and even the prospect of it can cause the markets to rally.