You are most welcome, very glad that you found it of use.
I’m probably teaching grandma to suck eggs, now, but early on I focussed on understanding Support and Resistance levels. Once I understood how to spot these levels, how to mark them on my charts, and why they formed in the market in the first place (in other words, what Price Action was telling me about the overall intentions and sentiment of the market participants at any given time) my understanding of safe places to put my Stop, and realistic places to set my TP, came on in leaps and bounds, it was as though someone had switched a light on for me. Now I let these levels heavily influence whether or not I will take a trade, and I have been full-time at this for over a year.
However good a setup appears, however confident I am that a move will come, if I cannot find a safe place for my Stop, protected by a solid S/R level, that still gives me sufficient room for a minimum of 1:1 R:R, without having my TP on the far side of another S/R level, I will not take that setup. If the relevant S&R levels give me the room for at least 1:1 (although obviously 2, 3, 4+ :1 is nicer…!) without obvious obstacles in the way, and with my Stop protected, then I will take the trade. The trick is finding a combination of setup and S&R levels, if you ask me.
Anyway, apologies if that was irrelevant or a tangent, but it seemed a natural response to your post. Good luck with it all - 40% success is a decent start. I know of traders who have a much worse win/loss ratio than that and go on to make a lot of money.
I feel like I have a good understanding of S/R but lately I’ve been off. I went back to my demo account and retried my entry points and I did well. It seems like the moment I use real money, I don’t do as well. I don’t feel nervous with real money because I’m risking so little. so I will keep with my strategy. Guess I’m just hitting a soft patch. Next week brings new opportunities!
Good to be trading at a level that doesn’t make the nerves too bad. I steadily increased my risk per trade - early on there was a period when I risking £50 per trade, I couldn’t see how I would ever feel comfortable risking more, yet now I do and am (mostly!) okay with it. It is amazing how you can train your head over time.
Every trader gets a small losing patch at some point, or at least most of the honest ones do. I lost four in a row at some point in June, 4% off my account in two days. I was still up on the month, so you are absolutely right to keep trading your Strategy mechanically. Trading as a career means looking at the big picture, when it comes to building the account size.
Hey Happy I just read your blog post and it looks as if the markets going to be playing games with us at the moment. Personally I think moving your stop to your entry would have been a good idea but I think your thinking was correct on the trade.
Aww, thanks YoungGun1! It’s just too bad risk sentiment keeps shifting quickly and my paper profits vanished into thin air. I guess I should’ve just held on to that short AUD/USD as a day trade. I trust your trades went well for you this week? How’s it going?
Pretty good stop, I think, especially when it’s below today’s lows. Better watch out for 1.0800! It might provide resistance if NFP data sparks risk aversion. Good luck and don’t forget to tell us how the trade ends up!
Hmm, pretty quiet in my comdoll corners lately. Don’t tell me y’all are also spent the last few days re-reading the Harry Potter books like I did! How’s everyone doing so far?
I currently think that the AUD IS trending. I think we’re on a slight downward trend between 1.0800 - 1.0350
My current short on the AUD is banking on a negative risk sentiment pulling the AUD lower. It’s not very detailed, but I tried an elliot wave count to find a short. and we’ll see how it goes.
I can’t post pictures yet, so check my blog to see my trade.
currently short 4 positions @ 1.0670
SL @ 1.0715
TP @ 1.0620 all the way down to 1.0350
Eep, my recent AUD/USD trade is somewhat similar (short at 1.0650, SL at 1.0750, PT1 at 1.0550) and I got wiped out because of Bernanke’s speech yesterday. Apparently QE3 is still a big possibility, which is why the dollar sold off wildly. Thank goodness for stop losses though.
To my eye, we are still in the range we talked about earlier in the month, following the previous uptrend (for me, the Daily is pretty clear on this pair, we are basically in our third year of uptrend), and your 1.0650 Entry was in the no-man’s land between the High and Low of the range. My position is as it was previously - either look for short opportunities following a concerted close below 1.0500, long opportunities following a concerted close above the top of the range (looking more like 1.0800 or so), or maybe trade the range from one extremity to the other (although I doubt I would take those as there are higher probability setups elsewhere, imho). Maybe I am particularly risk-averse, but to my mind although trying to pick the turnaround point is a profitable way to trade, moving too early can risk giving away a bit too much up front. I would prefer to get in a whisker later, or with stronger confirmation, and capture slightly less of the move without having lost a few trades probing.
While I see the underlying logic behind your 1.0650 Short conceptually, the market had shown recently that it was happy to go 100 pips higher than that, so for me you pulled the trigger too early. Even without news on the horizon, I think that the market is undecided between the outer extremities of the range, so would personally stay out. My old test of scrunching up the Daily chart and standing back from the screen tells me to short this pair at the moment, if for no other reason than the low tests recently, such as 14/07, 27/06 and 25/05. The market has shown no concerted enthusiasm for shorting this pair recently.
(And sorry for recent absence - no Harry Potter, yet (waiting until the kids are a little older!) but lunch out on Friday ended up with a few days off.)
Sorry if this post sounds negative after the event, but it chimes with our exchange on this subject earlier in the month, so thought it relevant. Our analysis on this thread earlier in July is still sounding solid.
Yeah sorry for not being around lately but I was getting frustrated with consecutive losses and poor bankroll management. Lost about 80% of my initial deposit and looking back on it I did learn a lot about myself as I always do win I am losing. Although I have good news because I just got back from my casino and won some nice pots getting most of my losses back. I’m ready to deposit again but need some tips on getting my confidence back(a nice setup would be nice)…
Looking back at the charts and some trades(the bigger ones) I noticed that I wasn’t wrong and the trades would have made money or at Least broke even if I had not panicked and closed too soon. I feel like a total fish in this market as I keep taking the bait so to speak. Anyways just wanted to update you guys on what’s going on with me.
I went on vacation last week and almost nothing changed with this pair except it finally hit some support. Given the overall up trend with this pair I’ve been waiting for this support area. So I went long today around 11am Eastern U.S. time and I’m still riding the wave waiting on 1.750 as my TP. I’m really happy with the risk on sediment for today and thats what made me pull the trigger. after reading Happy pips column I think going short around the 1.800 area is a probably a reasonable thing. I’m just going to wait on some confirmation candles.
Thanks ST for your advice. Your risk aversion insight was useful. I realize I went long when your post said to basically wait for some confirmation closes above 1.800 but I felt like the candles were saying that once price went 30 pips above the “no mans land” 1.650 area, I felt it was headed towards the 1.800 level. My TP is under the 1.800 just to make sure I lock in some profit. After that I’ll go with the wait and see approach to short or long. But given a recent column said something about the RBC minutes being dovish and possibly lowering rates I will not be surprised if a short back towards the 1.6500 level isn’t a possibility. I’ll check the fundamentals for the rest of the week and proceed from there. May the pips be with you.
Congrats on your trade, snook! It looks like you’re about to hit your PT. As for me, I’ll probably pull the trigger at 1.0800 if the risk on environment loses its steam. We’ll see in the next few sessions
Whoah, losing 80% of your initial deposit is crazy! Good thing you got lucky in the casino though. Just keep analyzing your trade journal and I’m sure you’ll get back on your feet in no time
Haha yeah but realistically it was 8% as i am planning on depositing 10k and lost about $800. It was a dumb way to lose $800 though as I made some mistakes I told myself I would never make. I got what I asked for. Anyways I’m going back to school of pipsology and maybe trade later this week. I am keeping an eye on the 1.800 level on the AUD/USD.
China comes out with lower than expected data, U.S. jobless claims come in bigger than expected and Eurozone data comes in short as well and yet it a risk on atmosphere. What gives? I thought this pair was going to start going down over the last few hours but it’s still headed towards 1.800. What am I missing? Someone with insight please tell me what I’m missing.
So after my previous post I turned on the business news channel and out comes the announcement that the Euro-zone had some form of a plan to help out Greece, so that explains the risk on. On the bright side I discovered this brilliant new strategy called “I should have been doing that the whole time” so I went long once my stop was hit and recovered about half my loss from going short. But emotions got the best of me and I closed out around 1.830 when I should have let it ride and I’d be almost back to even at this point. Live and learn
Hey snook! I think for the past few days what’s been driving this pair around are the U.S. debt talks. Last I heard, the lawmakers still can’t come up with an agreeable solution and their deadline is fast approaching. Each stalemate day brings the U.S. closer to a downgrade and the possibility of a default, which is probably why AUD/USD is skyrocketing like crazy.
Your positivity is contagious, haha. Let’s grab those pips this week!